Late Innings

Most people who know me know that I stress the importance of effective starting pitching. Effective starting pitching is defined as finding the perfect midpoint where both the starters and the relievers are not overworked. A manager who pulls his starter too early could face bullpen struggles, and the same issues could exist if a manager leaves his starter in too long. I’m not saying that a starter should throw a complete game each time out (the era of Jack Morris and Dennis Martinez is past), but a starter should get the game deep enough so that a refreshed bullpen can finish off the job.

So where does that happy medium exist? For me it’s looking at the bullpen and their total innings. A good bullpen should total up around four hundred innings over the course of a season. Assuming that all 162 games are nine-inning games, that patterns out to six and a half innings per start for eacb starting pitcher, which likewise comes out to just over 200 innings for each of the five starters.

I know that’s an ideal (if not theoretical in today’s age) number, but the best bullpens in the majors stay around this figure. There are two schools of thought that continually fail. One is having a special bullpen committee, where each reliever has his own set role from the sixth innings on. The second school of thought is overworked starters. Personally I’ve been seeing the later rule applied more of late.

Why did Bruce Bochy leave Tim Lincecum in for 138 pitches in this complete game? The same goes for Ned Yost letting C.C. Sabathia throw this meaningless complete game against the Astros. Bochy is notorious for abusing his starters as well, just ask fellow teammate Matt Cain. Cain and Lincecum are the cornerstones for the rotation of a winning Giants team, but wearing them down now is a huge mistake (maybe Lincecum should consider a multi-year contract offer?)

In regards to overworked pitchers and free agents, one clearly has to think back to the massive Kevin Brown contract, the 105MM over seven years. At the time he was in his thirties, and that contract was viewed as a mistake the minute it was known. Nonetheless, two years into his contract, Brown fell apart and never lived up to the value.

With that said, here are five free agent pitchers due for implosions. In other words, these are “buyer beware” for any bidding team.

1. C.C. Sabathia. Admittedly, Sabathia looked sharp last night, albeit pitching on just three days rest. He struck out eleven in seven against the Pirates, and the Brewers are now tied for the NL Wild Card lead with the Mets. Sabathia already has over 240 innings thrown this season, and if the season comes down to the final game on Sunday, you can be certain that the Brewers will trot C.C. out one last time this season to make that start.

   If the Brewers make the playoffs, that’s only more innings that the big starter will be throwing this season. For a man of Sabathia’s size, he’s thrown a good number of pitches over the past threw years, and has taken his share of abuse. His new team will have to take that into consideration when signing him this offseason. Granted C.C. has stated that he wants to pitch in the NL, but he’ll probably take all offers into consideration (having thirty teams bidding for your services is better than having sixteen.) In either case, Sabathia will get a deal containing at least seven years. It’s tough to pinpoint where (and if) he’ll breakdown during the contract.

2. A.J. Burnett. Likewise with Sabathia, Burnett will (most-likely) hit the free agent market this offseason, thanks to a hidden out-clause he had put into his five year/55MM deal he signed three years ago. He’ll most-likely be seeking a raise from his 11MM salary, and something past the 12MM that Carlos Silva gets per year from the Mariners. I’m seeing something between 13MM and 15MM over four years.

   Burnett’s ERA was high in the middle of the year, but it’s been dropping of late. He’s going to finish the season at 18 wins, and he could have easily won 20. He’s still a reliable pitcher, but has been allowing more baserunners than he has in the past. Burnett’s a solid pitcher, but is injury-prone and starting to decline. He’s not an ace, and the Blue Jays should be careful. Even though they’re going to be without Shaun Marcum for 2009, offering anything over 15MM per season would be a large mistake.

3. Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod shattered the single-season saves record, and like Sabathia has been overworked in Los Angeles. I’m sure the Angels will offer him arbitration (they wouldn’t mind having him back at a one year deal), and that should limit his potential suitors. Rodriguez will be seeking something larger than what Francisco Cordero got from the Reds last year. Yes, there will be a team that will overpay for an abused reliever, someone who’s bound to lose his effectiveness in media res of the contract.

   With every passing day, Brian Fuentes is looking like the best closing option in the market. He could now get 10MM per year, and his arm is fresh. I know the Rockies are planning on offering him arbitration as well. Still, that won’t stop any team from paying handsomely for his services this winter.

4. Ben Sheets. Sheets has the best stuff of any pitcher on the market this year. He’s also the most fragile. I could see him in Yankee pinstripes this winter, I could also see him elsewhere. Due to the health issues, I don’t see a team going beyone three years on the contract. He started the All Star game, and will get 15MM per year. It’s definitely a roll of a dice here for whomever signs him. Still, looking at the bad side of the coin, Sheets reminds me of an even more-fragile version of Jason Schmidt, who got a 3 year/47MM deal from the Dodgers two years back.
   

   Schmidt is currently making 410K per out with the Dodgers.

5. Jon Garland. He’s currently a 14 game winner, but then again he’s pitching for the talented Angels, so his win total would be lessened on another team. However he currently spots an ugly 4.80 ERA. For the early part of his career with the White Sox, he was a .500 pitcher, then won 18 games twice, then went back down to mediocrity. If you look at his 162 game averages, he’s 13-11 with a 4.45 ERA in 210 innings.

   He’s only 29, but his numbers have taken a sharp decline since his stellar 2005 season, where he threw close to 240 innings in the team’s championship season. Like Silva, he doesn’t record too many strikeouts and gives up over 10 hits per nine frames. Silva got 12MM last winter from the Mariners, so what will Garland get? RotoWorld projects him to land in Baltimore with a five year, 60MM deal. I hope that doesn’t happen, and I’m sure Andy MacPhail won’t overpay like that. Three years at 10MM per year is fair market value in my books.