Late Innings

So here we are in September, and the Orioles are playing baseball like they do every September of late: poorly. As of now, they have yet to win a game this month. They’ve lost eight in a row (that make up game from April against the White Sox does not count), and nine of their last ten. Things are falling apart for them, especially with reliever Jim Johnson now shut down for the season. The hitting is now ice cold, and the starting pitching is unbearable to watch. I’m not sure what precipitated this piece. I was going to write something about this earlier, but then I read the MLBTR piece on this. In either case Andy MacPhail will have another busy offseason this winter.

In the good news, MacPhail will have some cash coming off the books after this season is over. Kevin Millar and his 3MM salary will most likely be gone, and the same goes with Jay Payton and his 5MM salary for 2008. Chad Bradford and his 3MM salary were traded to the Tampa Bay Rays earlier. That’s a good amount of money freed up, however MacPhail will have to pay his two arbitration eligible outfielders Nick Markakis and Luke Scott. Scott is a super-two player, and after hitting 20 HR this year, his salary should be around 2.5MM in 2009. Markakis’ salary should jump ten-fold to the 4.5MM range. George Sherrill is also eligible for salary arbitration, and he could have a Kevin Gregg-type salary (2.5MM) after saving 31 games this year. Thankfully Jeremy Guthrie can be still kept at the minimum for one more year, though he’ll require a small raise from his 780K he made this year (thanks to the major league deal he signed back with Cleveland.)

I’m expecting a payroll of 65MM in 2008 for the Orioles. There are a good number of players that can be moved. A couple in particular:

• Ramon Hernandez. Hernandez is set to make 8MM in 2009, and won’t be a free agent until the end of 2009. He’s on pace for 17 HR in 2008, and that’s with a good chunk of time missed due to an injury to start the season. Hernandez can most likely be had for cheap, though MacPhail will probably require that the buyer take on all of Hernandez’ salary. Part of me thinks that the front office is ready to hand over the pitching staff to Matt Wieters.
• Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera has been ineffective of late, and part of that is due to an injury. He’s a candidate to be shut down for the rest of the season. At 2.8MM in 2008, and being arbitration eligible through 2010, he’s most likely to be moved, however MacPhail would be selling low here. Cabrera would most likely be best-suited to be a middle reliever now, given his poor control problems.
  

  Cabrera will finish another disappointing season 8-9, 5.26. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
• Jamie Walker, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff. Any of the other veterans can be had for cheap. The later two had great seasons in 2008. And of course, the Brian Roberts saga could continue into next March.

Dave Trembley did a great job managing what he has. He’s running a solid bullpen, and the team can hit. The rotation has been a disaster, but he’s working the best with what he has. People have questioned whether the team should spend 5MM on an innings-eater. Personally it’s a needed move. On hindsight, Kyle Lohse looks like he would have been a great fit, and budget signings don’t work here (e.g. Steve Trachsel.) It’s foolish to expect young pitchers to be able to throw 1,000 innings for a whole season, given their inexperience. On a plus, the young pitching is coming, just ask their Double-A staff.

In short, the Orioles need an innings-eater and a middle-infielder to plug the holes. And they’ll need to see what they can do about the possible openings in their corner infield. The bullpen should be great in 2009, especially with Chris Ray coming back to close, and Sherrill and Johnson being able to take on more stable roles as set-up men. And I’m curious to see the role that Lou Montanez will play for the team in 2009, especially being the Eastern League MVP. MacPhail should start seeing what he can get via trades. I don’t expect him to match up with last year’s hauls, but it’s clear that it doesn’t hurt to get younger and cheaper.