Late Innings

I can’t remember how many times in the past two years where we’ve heard interjections between the Steinbrenners and either Joe Torre or Brian Cashman. I can recall the 2007 playoffs, where George Steinbrenner came out and essentially said Torre’s ass was grass unless they advance past Cleveland. That obviously didn’t happen, they were gone in the first round in 2007, and Torre ultimately took an offer to manage the Dodgers.

Yes it is ironic that Torre is now in the playoffs, and the Yankees failed to make it (for the first time since 1996 nonetheless.) The reasons why they didn’t make it in 2008 were NOT Brian Cashman’s fault.

I’m obviously writing this because the Steinbrenner brothers inked Cashman to a three year deal this evening. Cashman simply put is an outstanding GM, one of the best. I’ve always respected the work he’s done, and assembling a team with an essentially infinite budget is not as easy as it seems.

Earlier this year, Hank Steinbrenner gave the word that they’ll be spending money this offseason, and return to the true Yankee way. There’s no reason to believe that they won’t. They have over 80MM in “toxic” assets coming off the books in November. Players such as Carl Pavano, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Andy Pettite, Mike Mussina and Ivan Rodriguez are free agents. Some will return, though not at the salaries they were paid in 2007 (Mussina is a close bet to be paid the same as what he was.)

What the Yankees need to do is evaluate the free agents and see who would be the best fits. I made my suggestions, and I feel as though they should sign C.C. Sabathia (especially since they lost out on Johan Santana.) They should offer salary arbitration to all of their Type A free agents as well, and collect the supplemental draft picks that are offered to them after (and if) they leave. The team has been drafting poorly of late. This is one way to address that problem. The other way, improve international scouting.

Back in July, I honestly thought that the Yankees would be a playoff team in 2008. The reason why, it’s simple: Joba Chamberlain. It seems that once he went down, all the energy and momentum that this team had seemed to evaporate. Having young pitching is a good thing, relying on it too heavily is not. I have no doubt that Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes (who pitched very well in his last start of the season) will be solid parts of the Yankees’ rotation in the future, however Cashman should bring in a veteran starter or two to stabilize the rotation and provide competition. Chein Mein Wang is back, and Mussina and Pettite should hopefully be back as well. Pitching is crucial, and bringing in someone like Sabathia would be clearly huge here.

I honestly expect the Yankees to be back in the playoff picture in 2009. What happened to them this year was a fluke. They were be riddled with injuries, including Wang, Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez. Still they still are a solid core. A few more parts and they could be deadly. In closing I like the Cashman signing. I also like what Boston did with Theo Epstein and what the Mets did with Omar Minaya, that is by locking up each long term. It’s an interesting strategy. These GMs are under constant pressure all season long simply due to the markets that they play in. By doing these moves, hopefully some of the pressure is alleviated.

The Comeback Player of the Year Awards came out today. The winners were Cleveland’s Cliff Lee (22-3, 2.53, Cy Young possible) and Philadelphia’s Brad Lidge (41 for 41 in save opportunities, also Cy Young possible.) I realize that these two had off years in 2007, and they both are solid choices for the awards. Still, I stick with the voices that the masses are saying. The awards should have went to Carlos Quinten (36 HR) and Ryan Ludwick (37 HR), in my honest opinion.

One possible front-runner for next year’s award could be Edgar Renteria. As everyone knows by now, Renteria had an off year, especially being part of a Tigers team that was going to score “1,000 runs.” The team was slumping with their bats back in April, and so did Renteria. His option isn’t going to be picked up by the Tigers, and they’re buying out his contract for 3MM. In other words he’ll be a free agent. There’s a piece up on Roch Kubtako’s blog about what the Orioles would do, and most people in the comments suggested that they sign Renteria. I floated the comments and this idea to Tim Dierkes (the MLB Trade Rumors guy) and he responded with the following to me:

Yeah I was looking at that. Bad idea.

Baltimore tried many different shortstops in 2008: Luis Hernandez won the job in Spring Training and was the Opening Day starter. A month or so later, they gave it to Freddie Bynum. Brandon Fahey and Alex Cintron were also given chances, and the team made the late-season trade for Juan Castro, who didn’t provide the offense they needed (his glovework was albeit sound.) Baltimore needs a shortstop for 2009, someone to pair up with Brian Roberts at second. They don’t have too many minor league options, and I did suggest that Andy MacPhail would go after Orlando Cabrera. I personally feel that Renteria would be a better fit.

I’m sure that there will be many teams kicking the tires on Renteria this winter. As to what they’d offer, I’m not sure. There might be a multi-year deal passed, but Renteria might want a one year deal which he could use to reestablish his value for next winter. One year at 6MM would work, and I think MacPhail would bite at that as well. Renteria is only 33, and is one year out of a season in which he hit .332. His defensive range is declining, and his speed is for the most part gone. He still has a good bat. His .269 average last year was his lowest since 2001, and the .698 OPS is ugly. Still those are better number than all Orioles shortstops hit combined last season (Renteria also out-slugged them with his 10HR.)

I would take Renteria for one year, but not for four (e.g. Luis Castillo and his four year/24MM deal with the Mets.) Baltimore hasn’t been dealing out bad contracts of late, and a flyer on Renteria is a good move. Good budget moves include looking for players who have had success in the past. Granted it’s a roll of a dice, but it could pay off for the O’s. After all, Aubrey Huff made a case for the comeback of the year player himself. The same thing goes with the Marlins, who now have a viable trade chip in Jorge Cantu.

I know I got around late to this, but regular readers of Late Innings know that I poke fun at Kyle Lohse often. And after yesterday, I got a few emails asking me about what I thought about Kyle Lohse’s 4 year/41MM contract extension from the Cardinals (this is an extension since he technically didn’t hit free agency.) Honestly I don’t see the Cardinals getting any sort of a “bargain” here. If anything they might have overpaid.

There was a story which came out yesterday, stating that MLB home runs per game are at fifteen-year historic lows. Is this all because of the steroid issue which broke after last year’s Mitchell Report? Not sure. Torii Hunter was quoted on this issue as well. However in the end, we had low home run totals in 2008. The AL Leader was Miguel Cabrera, who only hit 37 this year. There were only two hitters in the majors who had more home runs: Adam Dunn (who hit 40 between the Reds and Diamondbacks) and Ryan Howard (who hit 48, I’ll talk more on him later this week.) Hitting was down this year, slugging was down. What was up? Simple, it was pitching.

In 2007, we only had one starting pitcher who ended up with a (qualifying) ERA under 3.00, and that was Jake Peavy. This year, we had seven. It seemed that many pitchers this year had career years, including Lohse, who ended up a solid 15 wins and a 3.78 ERA. Lohse always had good stuff, however at times he is far too hittable. He still projects to a number #3 starter, however being behind Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright in next year’s rotation, this should fit well for him. The one thing that Lohse has going for him is his durability, and Lohse is a little bit better than just an “innings eater.”

I poked fun at Lohse last year since he was seeking a contract very similar to the one that Carlos Silva got from the Mariners (4 years/48MM.) In hindsight, this was a terrible move by the Mariners (he went 4-15, 6.46), and any team that would have gave that money to Lohse would have had buyer’s remorse. The Phillies offered Lohse 3 years/21MM, which he and (his agent) Scott Boras scoffed at. In the end, he settled on a one year 4.5MM deal with the Cardinals. All during the season, we heard remarks that Lohse was going to go for the highest bidder come free agency. However in the end, it was Lohse who asked the Cardinals to begin talks for an extension.

Lohse read the market. He saw the resurgence in pitching. He was right in doing this; his value probably couldn’t be any higher. Pitching is back in baseball, and this should impact the cost of starting pitching in free agency. Yes we know that C.C. Sabathia will most likely get 20MM per year this winter, however will teams spend in excess of 12MM per year on someone like Jon Garland, when they can surely get the innings (and quality) at a much cheaper price?

I’m not sure how this news will impact other free agent starters. Everyone thought it was certain that Oliver Perez would be a 15MM to 18MM pitcher this year, even coming off an off year where he only won ten games. However that doesn’t seem as likely. The same thing goes with A.J. Burnett. The Jays have reportedly offered him a four year, 54MM contract (nullifying the remaining two years, 24MM on his current deal. On an aside, I was close when I guessed that he’d get 51MM over four years.) If Burnett (who won 18 games in 2008) wants to stay in Toronto, he’ll take the offer. I honestly think he’ll do the same. Other people (like Rosenthal) think that Burnett wants to hit the open market, where he could get 18MM-20MM per year with the New York teams bidding.

I think the Jays’ offer is very fair, especially in comparison to the Lohse contract. Kyle Lohse set the market with this deal yesterday, and this will be used as the barometer for signing the remaining free agent starters. As a prediction: I think the starters are going to sign for far less than many people are expecting.

Lohse got something it took him a year to get: job security. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

Earlier in the year before the season started, I predicted that the Los Angeles Dodgers would represent the National League in this year’s Fall Classic, defeating the Tigers in just five games. I was partially right here, especially with the Tigers being eliminated from contention a few weeks ago (in all fairness, there were many people who expected the Tigers to be a World Series team.) The Dodgers are going to the postseason, and have been playing solid baseball, especially with Manny Ramirez (.333, 37, 121) being on the tear that he is. After the season’s over however, Ned Colletti and the rest of the management will have their hands cut out for them.

Long story short, the Dodgers have to pay this dipshit.

As of today, going by the players that are on their payroll, the Dodgers rank seventh in team payroll, at just over 118MM (a summation of the player salaries on the forty man roster.) Ten days after the World Series is over, a substantial amount of this will be off the books. Looking at this list:

• Manny Ramirez (OF) - 20MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Rafeal Furcal (IF) - 16MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Greg Maddux (SP) - 10MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Nomar Garciaparra (IF) - 9.5MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Brad Penny (SP) - 9.25MM in ‘08 - Free Agent (9.5MM club option likely to be declined)
• Jeff Kent (IF) - 9MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Joe Beimel (RP) - 1.9MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Angel Berroa (IF) - 4.75MM in ‘08 - Free Agent (5.5MM option likely to be declined)
• Casey Blake (IF) - 6.1MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Derek Lowe (SP) - 10MM in ‘08 - Free Agent

That’s a substantial amount of money coming off the books, equally as much as the Yankees have coming off the books this Winter. Will this attribute a spending spree for the Dodgers in 2009? Highly unlikely.

The Dodgers still have a few “toxic” contracts on the books now; these include Jason Schmidt (15.5MM in ‘09), Juan Pierre (28.5MM owed between ‘09 and ‘11) and Andruw Jones (15MM in ‘09, plus part of the remaining 12.2 signing bonus.) Once they’re gone, the team should hopefully be more liquid in the future (there have been rumors of them having cash problems.)

First things first, the team needs to resign Blake (even with him being 35.) They gave up a good deal for him, notably potential star catcher Carlos Santana. In addition to him, they need to get Ramirez under contract as well. They’re dropping the pair of 20MM options that he has over the next two years, and will offer him arbitration. Personally, I don’t see him getting 20MM again. He’s alienated a good number of his suitors with his play in Boston, and the arbitration issue is another hurdle to get around, since Ramirez is a Type-A free agent according to Elias. I see both of these two getting signed for something around 25MM to 30MM next season.

Furcal is another must-have, but he’s by no means a 16MM per year infielder (I questioned the contract right after he left Atlanta.) Let’s say he’ll make 12MM in ‘08. Penny and Maddux are gone, and I see Colletti going after another starting pitcher, especially if Lowe (14-11, 3.24) gets too expensive. I see the Dodgers spending 50MM for free agents on next year’s team. In addition to this, they’ll have to pay Andre Ethier (.301, 20, 76) and Russell Martin (.281, 13, 69), two players about to hit super-two status in regards to arbitration. The money saved after the above “toxic” contracts are off the books will pay the arbitration raises that will be given to James Loney (.292, 13, 90), Matt Kemp (.292, 18, 76), Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.17, 199K) and Jonathan Broxton (3.13, 14S, 88K.) This group (plus Ethier and Martin) could get very expensive after 2009.

After the Dodgers get the bad contracts off the books, they’ll be in a much better position. Personally I think they have a great team now, a terrific blend of veteran presence with young talent. And they have many more internal options ready to replace those about to leave this offseason (Blake DeWitt or Delwyn Young could replace Kent, who’s most likely to retire.) If Colletti would manage the team’s finances better starting this offseason, the Dodgers could be in midst of a good run of excellence, much like the one that Tampa Bay is experiencing now.

Wow, thanks to the Orioles and their shitty September play, I’m now an alcoholic. I actually came up with a new drink which I’ve called “The Jamie Walker“. Ironically it has no Johnnie Walker, but it has a strong shot of whiskey in it. When watching the Orioles play, if you ever want to make a “Jamie Walker” do the following:

1. Take a bottle of Miller Lite.
2. Pour in a shot of Chivas Regal.

Bam motherfucker! Before you know it, after a few of these you’ll be watching good baseball, regardless of whether you’re watching the Cubs or the Nationals. And on the good side, you’ll be going through fewer cases of beer. Speaking of good baseball… I’m watching the Brewers and the Pirates play right now. At any other point of the season, this game would be a yawn-fest, however it’s a good one tonight.

So the Brewers made the oddball move and decided to start Yovani Gallardo. I honestly thought he’d be in the bullpen, but then again these are the Brewers. They’re tied at 1 with the Pirates in the eighth. Meanwhile, the Cubs are tied with the Mets in extra innings. The Astros are also winning, but after tonight should have zero chance of making the playoffs whatsoever. The Philies are off.

On an aside Gallardo looked rock solid. He struck out six of his first seven, and pitched four innings of one-run ball. That’s exactly what the Brewers were expecting. So now they can put Ben Sheets and his crutches on the mound on Friday, C.C. Sabathia pitching on two days rest on Saturday, and have Cal Eldred come out of retirement to pitch the finale on Sunday in that final crucial series against the Cubs. Yes these are the Brewers. They do good, choke, then do good again. And for some reason I still see none of these teams making the playoffs.

I wish I had a healthy Gallardo on my fantasy team, at least one of them (I think my best team will finish fifth this season in the one CBS Sportsline league I’m in.) My strategy year in and year out is draft starters early and often. Good hitting can be found on the waiver wire as the season progresses. I’m partially right. On average my teams were hitting .280 (good), but we were pitching to an ERA of 4.20 (bad) with a WHIP of 1.40 (worse.) I’ll try to get a new strategy for next year, however I’m a huge fan of Gallardo.

Earlier on this season, I said that Gallardo would post similar numbers to Tim Lincecum. Does that mean that Gallardo’d have 17 wins, a 2.60 ERA, chance at Cy Young, dead arm and case to file a claim of abuse on his manager like Lincecum does? Not exactly. However if healthy, he’s good. He’s very good.

A healthy Gallardo will mitigate the blow of Sabathia and Sheets leaving as free agents this offseason. He’s got ace potential. Seriously. If you’d take his 2008 numbers (over 4 starts) and pattern them across a full-season’s worth of starts (35 starts), you’d have the following line: 0-0 record, 1.88 ERA, 175 strikeouts in 210 innings, with a solid 1.25 WHIP.

(Note to Late Innings readers: the author is currently wasted.)

Soon to crack the Brewers rotation: Yanni Gallardo.

Most people who know me know that I stress the importance of effective starting pitching. Effective starting pitching is defined as finding the perfect midpoint where both the starters and the relievers are not overworked. A manager who pulls his starter too early could face bullpen struggles, and the same issues could exist if a manager leaves his starter in too long. I’m not saying that a starter should throw a complete game each time out (the era of Jack Morris and Dennis Martinez is past), but a starter should get the game deep enough so that a refreshed bullpen can finish off the job.

So where does that happy medium exist? For me it’s looking at the bullpen and their total innings. A good bullpen should total up around four hundred innings over the course of a season. Assuming that all 162 games are nine-inning games, that patterns out to six and a half innings per start for eacb starting pitcher, which likewise comes out to just over 200 innings for each of the five starters.

I know that’s an ideal (if not theoretical in today’s age) number, but the best bullpens in the majors stay around this figure. There are two schools of thought that continually fail. One is having a special bullpen committee, where each reliever has his own set role from the sixth innings on. The second school of thought is overworked starters. Personally I’ve been seeing the later rule applied more of late.

Why did Bruce Bochy leave Tim Lincecum in for 138 pitches in this complete game? The same goes for Ned Yost letting C.C. Sabathia throw this meaningless complete game against the Astros. Bochy is notorious for abusing his starters as well, just ask fellow teammate Matt Cain. Cain and Lincecum are the cornerstones for the rotation of a winning Giants team, but wearing them down now is a huge mistake (maybe Lincecum should consider a multi-year contract offer?)

In regards to overworked pitchers and free agents, one clearly has to think back to the massive Kevin Brown contract, the 105MM over seven years. At the time he was in his thirties, and that contract was viewed as a mistake the minute it was known. Nonetheless, two years into his contract, Brown fell apart and never lived up to the value.

With that said, here are five free agent pitchers due for implosions. In other words, these are “buyer beware” for any bidding team.

1. C.C. Sabathia. Admittedly, Sabathia looked sharp last night, albeit pitching on just three days rest. He struck out eleven in seven against the Pirates, and the Brewers are now tied for the NL Wild Card lead with the Mets. Sabathia already has over 240 innings thrown this season, and if the season comes down to the final game on Sunday, you can be certain that the Brewers will trot C.C. out one last time this season to make that start.

   If the Brewers make the playoffs, that’s only more innings that the big starter will be throwing this season. For a man of Sabathia’s size, he’s thrown a good number of pitches over the past threw years, and has taken his share of abuse. His new team will have to take that into consideration when signing him this offseason. Granted C.C. has stated that he wants to pitch in the NL, but he’ll probably take all offers into consideration (having thirty teams bidding for your services is better than having sixteen.) In either case, Sabathia will get a deal containing at least seven years. It’s tough to pinpoint where (and if) he’ll breakdown during the contract.

2. A.J. Burnett. Likewise with Sabathia, Burnett will (most-likely) hit the free agent market this offseason, thanks to a hidden out-clause he had put into his five year/55MM deal he signed three years ago. He’ll most-likely be seeking a raise from his 11MM salary, and something past the 12MM that Carlos Silva gets per year from the Mariners. I’m seeing something between 13MM and 15MM over four years.

   Burnett’s ERA was high in the middle of the year, but it’s been dropping of late. He’s going to finish the season at 18 wins, and he could have easily won 20. He’s still a reliable pitcher, but has been allowing more baserunners than he has in the past. Burnett’s a solid pitcher, but is injury-prone and starting to decline. He’s not an ace, and the Blue Jays should be careful. Even though they’re going to be without Shaun Marcum for 2009, offering anything over 15MM per season would be a large mistake.

3. Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod shattered the single-season saves record, and like Sabathia has been overworked in Los Angeles. I’m sure the Angels will offer him arbitration (they wouldn’t mind having him back at a one year deal), and that should limit his potential suitors. Rodriguez will be seeking something larger than what Francisco Cordero got from the Reds last year. Yes, there will be a team that will overpay for an abused reliever, someone who’s bound to lose his effectiveness in media res of the contract.

   With every passing day, Brian Fuentes is looking like the best closing option in the market. He could now get 10MM per year, and his arm is fresh. I know the Rockies are planning on offering him arbitration as well. Still, that won’t stop any team from paying handsomely for his services this winter.

4. Ben Sheets. Sheets has the best stuff of any pitcher on the market this year. He’s also the most fragile. I could see him in Yankee pinstripes this winter, I could also see him elsewhere. Due to the health issues, I don’t see a team going beyone three years on the contract. He started the All Star game, and will get 15MM per year. It’s definitely a roll of a dice here for whomever signs him. Still, looking at the bad side of the coin, Sheets reminds me of an even more-fragile version of Jason Schmidt, who got a 3 year/47MM deal from the Dodgers two years back.
   

   Schmidt is currently making 410K per out with the Dodgers.

5. Jon Garland. He’s currently a 14 game winner, but then again he’s pitching for the talented Angels, so his win total would be lessened on another team. However he currently spots an ugly 4.80 ERA. For the early part of his career with the White Sox, he was a .500 pitcher, then won 18 games twice, then went back down to mediocrity. If you look at his 162 game averages, he’s 13-11 with a 4.45 ERA in 210 innings.

   He’s only 29, but his numbers have taken a sharp decline since his stellar 2005 season, where he threw close to 240 innings in the team’s championship season. Like Silva, he doesn’t record too many strikeouts and gives up over 10 hits per nine frames. Silva got 12MM last winter from the Mariners, so what will Garland get? RotoWorld projects him to land in Baltimore with a five year, 60MM deal. I hope that doesn’t happen, and I’m sure Andy MacPhail won’t overpay like that. Three years at 10MM per year is fair market value in my books.

If the Orioles would end their seasons at the end of July, on paper they’d look like a solid baseball team. However they’re playing in September, and as usual they can’t find a way to win games. Until they find a way to win in this month, they’ll never be a championship ball club.

Currently, Baltimore is an abysmal 4-17 in September of 2008. I know that they have a tough schedule this month, playing mostly competitive teams in the AL East looking for playoff spots, however they haven’t won a series in two months. There was no excuse for them being swept by a reeling Oakland ball club at the beginning of the month in Baltimore.

Last night I honestly thought they were going to win. They took a lead into the eighth inning, only to watch Jamie Walker implode and open the floodgates, leading to another Orioles loss. That led to an evening of heavy drinking… after about a half of a case of Heineken, I conducted my own AL Rookie of the Year voting. These are my drunken results:

• T. Teagarden - TEX (6)
• A. Simon - BAL (1)
• J. Lowrie - BOS
• E. Longoria - TAM

I understand that Longoria has 26 homers and didn’t get a single first-place vote in my mock poll, but I was too drunk to care. I did manage to give a first place vote to Alfredo Simon however… (on an aside, I really think Teagarden is going to be an amazing catcher in the future.)

On an aside, I was listening to the game last night, and before throwing the radio out the window, I was happy to hear that Simon was pitching very well. After all he did something that most Orioles starters haven’t done recently, pitched past the seventh inning:

He was pitching in the 90s with great movement. As most people pointed out, his pitching last night looked like something very similar to a former Orioles ace: Rodrigo Lopez. Like Simon, Lopez was discovered while pitching in the Mexican League. He made his Orioles debut, and as a rookie won 15 games in 2002 (finishing second in the ROY voting.) He won 15 games in two of the next three years. However his ERA rose, and he ultimately went back to the Mexican League to pitch.

There aren’t too many Mexican League pitchers who’ve made it in the majors, however there are a few that should be noted. Grated there’s Lopez. There’s also Francisco Cordova, who’s best known for throwing a combined ten-inning no-hitter against the Astros with fellow-countryman Ricardo Rincon (he did this back when Jon Lieber was pitching for the Pirates.) If there’s any similarities between all these pitchers, it’s that they’ll give the clubs three or so solid years. After that they’re out of the majors.

Simon looked good last night, even against a Tampa Bay team bereft of its regulars. His start could help him be a dark-horse candidate to be in Baltimore’s rotation in 2009. After all, what are the options. Rahdames Liz has great stuff, and seemed to get it together after going back to Norfolk, and the same goes with Garrett Olsen. Chris Waters has been reliable, but only has fourth-starter ceiling. Jeremy Guthrie is the ace, and the team should non-tender Daniel Cabrera, even with them having him under control for two more years. Yes, Baltimore needs a veteran starter to stabilize this rotation mess, but I hope that they won’t spend in excess of 10MM per year on a veteran. And yes RotoWorld, this includes Jon Garland.

With one week left in the season, I wanted to extend my congratulations to Tampa Bay. If they sweep the four game set against Baltimore, and Boston gets swept by Cleveland in their three game series, the Rays will win the AL East. Granted I know that this could be done in Baltimore, and even though it’s unlikely, if it happens I’ll applaud the Rays. If there’s anyone here that should be commended, it’s their fans. They had to suffer through ten years of .400 baseball, being the laughing stock of the AL East. I remember once when some reporter from USA Today referred to the team as the F-Rays (instead of the D-Rays), giving them a failing grade. As a fan, watching this kind of performance is tough to endure (hence me and the Orioles.)

If there’s any other winners with this feel-good story, it’s Baseball Prospectus. This past Winter, they wrote a piece projecting the Rays as an 87 win team for 2008. They were right about the decline of the White Sox in 2007, and they used the same PECOTA mesaures (the algorithm) to project the team’s win totals. I wrote a piece to counter this, saying that Tampa is only a 75 win team. In either case that’s a twenty percent improvement on their 2007 win total. Any ways in either case, the Rays are currently a 92 win team. If they sweep their four-game series in Baltimore, they’re at 96 wins. Being generous, let’s say that Tampa finishes with 95 wins. That’s a 35 win improvement from the year before.

My reasoning with why I thought Tampa would be a 15 win improvement: I expected a ten-win improvement from solid seasons from Matt Garza and James Shields, as well as Scott Kazmir. I expected Evan Longoria’s bat and defensive help (with the addition of Jason Bartlett) to add the additional five wins. Where I was wrong and BP was right:

• The Rays’ defensive is one of the best in the majors. They have the best defensive infield in baseball.
• The team’s relief corps, led by Grant Balfour, Jason Hammel, Troy Percival and Dan Wheeler have been outstanding.
• Longoria has clearly brought the team more than three wins all by himself.
• The backend of the rotation (Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson) have been surprisingly servicable.

And of course to make matters better, the David Price era has arrived. He makes his first career start this evening against Baltimore, and currently spots a solid 3.00 ERA in six relief innings.

A Run of Excellence

So now that we know how good the Rays are, the next question must be asked, that is how long can their magical run go. Unlike their division rivals Boston and New York, the Rays don’t have an open-ended payroll. Stuart Sternberg and Co. might open the purse strings a little more for Andrew Friedman (who has done a spectacular job with operations), but we can’t expect the team’s payroll to climb past 60MM in the future (given the market that the team plays in.) They’ll need that extra flexibility to sign their other starts not locked up, such as Garza and Price, both of whom could be seeing solid paydays once they hit arbitration.

The Rays can’t be dependent on receiving high draft picks anymore as well. Granted they nabbed Tim Beckham with the first pick this year, however they can’t be relying on that anytime in the future. One option is to select first-round talent that slips down to the later round, like the Yankees, Red Sox and Royals did this year (the Royals took Tim Melville, who fell down to the fourth round this year.) The other option is to increase international scouting, especially overseas in Japan. Personally they’re doing a solid job with their talent scouting.

Am I suggesting that the Rays are due for a falloff in four years? Not exactly. However Friedman will have to operate this team like Billy Beane does in Oakland, or how Bill Smith does with the Twins. The Rays will need to stay young and competitive, and make the key trade whenever they see fit to do so. And if a full-blown rebuilding is needed, so be it (ask Oakland.) The AL East is the toughest of divisions to play in, especially when the other four teams are being run by excellent general managers. Still, I’m impressed with Friedman and I don’t have any doubt in his confidence and leadership. There’s no sense in looking into the future this early. The Rays are going to the playoffs. They should pop that cap and enjoy every minute of that champagne, they deserve it.

So here we are in September, and the Orioles are playing baseball like they do every September of late: poorly. As of now, they have yet to win a game this month. They’ve lost eight in a row (that make up game from April against the White Sox does not count), and nine of their last ten. Things are falling apart for them, especially with reliever Jim Johnson now shut down for the season. The hitting is now ice cold, and the starting pitching is unbearable to watch. I’m not sure what precipitated this piece. I was going to write something about this earlier, but then I read the MLBTR piece on this. In either case Andy MacPhail will have another busy offseason this winter.

In the good news, MacPhail will have some cash coming off the books after this season is over. Kevin Millar and his 3MM salary will most likely be gone, and the same goes with Jay Payton and his 5MM salary for 2008. Chad Bradford and his 3MM salary were traded to the Tampa Bay Rays earlier. That’s a good amount of money freed up, however MacPhail will have to pay his two arbitration eligible outfielders Nick Markakis and Luke Scott. Scott is a super-two player, and after hitting 20 HR this year, his salary should be around 2.5MM in 2009. Markakis’ salary should jump ten-fold to the 4.5MM range. George Sherrill is also eligible for salary arbitration, and he could have a Kevin Gregg-type salary (2.5MM) after saving 31 games this year. Thankfully Jeremy Guthrie can be still kept at the minimum for one more year, though he’ll require a small raise from his 780K he made this year (thanks to the major league deal he signed back with Cleveland.)

I’m expecting a payroll of 65MM in 2008 for the Orioles. There are a good number of players that can be moved. A couple in particular:

• Ramon Hernandez. Hernandez is set to make 8MM in 2009, and won’t be a free agent until the end of 2009. He’s on pace for 17 HR in 2008, and that’s with a good chunk of time missed due to an injury to start the season. Hernandez can most likely be had for cheap, though MacPhail will probably require that the buyer take on all of Hernandez’ salary. Part of me thinks that the front office is ready to hand over the pitching staff to Matt Wieters.
• Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera has been ineffective of late, and part of that is due to an injury. He’s a candidate to be shut down for the rest of the season. At 2.8MM in 2008, and being arbitration eligible through 2010, he’s most likely to be moved, however MacPhail would be selling low here. Cabrera would most likely be best-suited to be a middle reliever now, given his poor control problems.
  

  Cabrera will finish another disappointing season 8-9, 5.26. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
• Jamie Walker, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff. Any of the other veterans can be had for cheap. The later two had great seasons in 2008. And of course, the Brian Roberts saga could continue into next March.

Dave Trembley did a great job managing what he has. He’s running a solid bullpen, and the team can hit. The rotation has been a disaster, but he’s working the best with what he has. People have questioned whether the team should spend 5MM on an innings-eater. Personally it’s a needed move. On hindsight, Kyle Lohse looks like he would have been a great fit, and budget signings don’t work here (e.g. Steve Trachsel.) It’s foolish to expect young pitchers to be able to throw 1,000 innings for a whole season, given their inexperience. On a plus, the young pitching is coming, just ask their Double-A staff.

In short, the Orioles need an innings-eater and a middle-infielder to plug the holes. And they’ll need to see what they can do about the possible openings in their corner infield. The bullpen should be great in 2009, especially with Chris Ray coming back to close, and Sherrill and Johnson being able to take on more stable roles as set-up men. And I’m curious to see the role that Lou Montanez will play for the team in 2009, especially being the Eastern League MVP. MacPhail should start seeing what he can get via trades. I don’t expect him to match up with last year’s hauls, but it’s clear that it doesn’t hurt to get younger and cheaper.