Late Innings

Every year for kicks, I pick thirty five players who are about to become free agents and project where they would land for the following season. In all fairness, I expect to get about 50% of the destinations correct, however I’m usually dead on in regards to the money. The contracts that I’m projecting for these players will feature 1.15B in guaranteed money, with the average yearly salary for each player being at just over 12MM per year. Any ways let’s get started.

The Trophy Winners

During the Winter of 2007, two nine-figure contracts were handed out to players; 151MM by the Mets to Johan Santana, and 153MM to Miguel Cabrera from the Tigers. Likewise with this year, there will be a pair of 100MM contracts handed out as well, one going to first baseman Mark Teixiera and the other going to starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia.

The Angels didn’t give up a good deal to land Teixiera this summer, however it cost them their starting first baseman Casey Kotchman. I honestly expect Tony Reagins to present Teixiera with a very compelling offer, and I honestly expect him to stay. Angels teammates have been lobbying for the management to resign Teixiera (e.g. Torii Hunter), and their efforts will most likely work. I don’t see Teixiera receiving the 230MM guaranteed that his agent Scott Boras wants, but he’ll receive a solid deal in the end.

The other upper-end free agent this year is Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia. Milwaukee can’t resign him, but it’s to their advantage to offer him arbitration, since they’d definitely take him in on a one-year deal if need be (in the ballpark of 20MM.) However the likelihood of that happening is slim. Sabathia will receive his share of multi-year deals this Winter, and none will trump the offer that the Yankees will offer him. Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman will have over 80MM of money coming off the books this Winter, and that will be plenty to bring in Sabathia, a true ace that the Yankees need in order to compete with the other top teams in the American League.

• Player: Mark Teixiera
• Team: Los Angeles Angels
• Contract: 8 years, 165MM
• Average Salary: 20.625MM/year

• Player: C.C. Sabathia
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 7 years, 143MM
• Average Salary: 20.43MM/year

The Evil-Empire

Since we’ve mentioned the Yankees and all the money coming off the books for them, they will have plenty of room for spending. One area to fix is veteran starting pitching. They’ll have Sabathia, and it wouldn’t hurt for them to bring back veteran starters Andy Pettite and Mike Mussina. Both will be brought back, however it’s highly unlikely that they’ll give Pettite 16MM again this time. They’ll also do the same with first baseman Jason Giambi. Giambi has a 22MM option, with a 5MM buyout. The Yankees can save 10MM by buying out his contract, and bringing him back at a market-rate salary. They will also bring back outfielder Bobby Abreu, likewise at a reduced rate.

• Player: Mike Mussina
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 2 years, 23MM
• Average Salary: 11.5MM/year

• Player: Andy Pettite
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 1 year, 12.5MM
• Average Salary: 12.5MM/year

• Player: Jason Giambi
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 1 year, 7MM
• Average Salary: 7MM/year

• Player: Bobby Abreu
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 2 years, 25MM
• Average Salary: 12.5MM

The team’s biggest weakness this year has been its inconsistent offense. As many have pointed, Alex Rodriguez has been hitting poorly this year in the clutch, hitting .250 on the season. The team needs power in the outfield, with Melky Cabrera not exactly an option, and Adam Dunn would be an excellent fit. And I also see the Yankees bringing in Milton Bradley to be their DH. The Yankees should win the bidding here with Bradley, since they’d be one of the few teams who would offer a multi-year deal to Bradley.

• Player: Adam Dunn
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 4 years, 57MM
• Average Salary: 14.25MM/year

• Player: Milton Bradley
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 3 years, 32MM
• Average Salary: 10.67MM/year

Spelling Relief

This year, a good number of closers are on the free agent market, with the most prominent being the Angels’ Francisco Rodriguez. The Angels would love to bring him back, however not at the salary he’s seeking. Given reports that Rodriguez’s velocity has been dipping, the Angels would most likely be better off using in-house options for next season in the ninth inning. So any ways, which team will land K-Rod? It’s easy, the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee (Bob Melvin in particular) has shown interest in spending heavily on closers. They did offer Francisco Cordero four years, however so did the Reds. In the end, they went with their Plan B, which was a one year deal, 10MM to Eric Gagne. They’ll pay for Rodriguez, but he won’t get 15MM per year like everyone’s expecting.

• Player: Francisco Rodriguez
• Team: Milwaukee Brewers
• Contract: 4 years, 53MM
• Average Salary: 13.25MM/year

Two other pitchers who would prefer to close are the Rockies’ Brian Fuentes, and the Diamondbacks’ Brandon Lyon. Fuentes will be offered arbitration by the Rockies, but I do see Mark Shapiro offering Fuentes a (modest) three-year deal to be the team’s closer. He paid for Joe Borowski, and he’s not afraid to pay for closing. Fuentes would be a far more affordable option than Rodgiguez, and would be an ideal fit to fix a rough bullpen for the Cleveland Indians.

• Player: Brian Fuentes
• Team: Cleveland Indians
• Contract: 3 years, 19MM
• Average Salary: 6.33MM/year

Lyon is an interesting pitcher himself. He’s having a good season, however of late has hit a rough spot. I actually do see the Diamondbacks offering him arbitration, since they wouldn’t mind having him back on a one year deal. However Jon Rauch is their closer, and Lyon would prefer to close. The team that would be his best fit? Simple, it’s the Texas Rangers. C.J. Wilson will be part of a deep bullpen for the Rangers in 2009 as well.

• Player: Brandon Lyon
• Team: Texas Rangers
• Contract: 3 years, 25MM
• Average Salary: 8.33MM/year

Other Big Winners this Off-Season

There are other solid free agents in this class, however the liklihood of any player receiving guaranteed money over 60MM (whose name is not Sabathia or Teixiera) is slim. Ben Sheets however is going to command a good salary. The starting pitcher for the NL in this year’s All Star game is talented, yet fragile. I don’t see any team going over three years for him, and he should essentially get the same money that Jason Schmidt got two years ago from the Dodgers. I see the Astros brining in Sheets for three years, much to the applause of their players. The team might not have the payroll flexibility that the Yankees has, but they’ll make room for him.

The Mets will be busy this winter, and one need they have is a corner outfield spot. Moises Alou is going to be off the books, and what better player they can obtain than Raul Ibanez from the Mariners. Seattle will offer him arbitration, and he will cost the Mets a couple of draft picks in the 2009 draft (their first rounder and a sandwich pick.) Still for four years, he’ll be worth every penny, and will be pleasing for Mets fans. They will also bring back Oliver Perez (yes a Boras client), and Carlos Delgado’s 12MM option for 2009? Yes, it will be optioned.

• Player: Ben Sheets
• Team: Houston Astros
• Contract: 3 years, 46.5MM
• Average Salary: 15.5MM/year

• Player: Raul Ibanez
• Team: New York Mets
• Contract: 4 years, 46MM
• Average Salary: 11.5MM/year

• Player: Oliver Perez
• Team: New York Mets
• Contract: 4 years, 44.5MM
• Average Salary: 11.125MM/year

The Re-Signees

Has Manny been Manny for the Dodgers? Not quite. But their offense needs Manny Ramirez and they will retain him. He won’t get 100MM like some people fear, but he will be compensated. The same goes with Casey Blake. Blake isn’t a 10MM per year player, but he’ll get a multi-year deal from the Dodgers. They need Blake, especially since they dealt Andy LaRoche to the Pirates in July. And the other Blake, that is Blake DeWitt, should be the team’s second baseman in 2009.

• Player: Manny Ramirez
• Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
• Contract: 3 years, 58MM
• Average Salary: 19.33MM/year

• Player: Casey Blake
• Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
• Contract: 3 years, 25MM
• Average Salary: 8.33MM/year

The Cubs are on pace to win 100 games in 2008, and they’ve done it with Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood. Both will be retained long-term by Jim Hendry and the management.

• Player: Ryan Dempster
• Team: Chicago Cubs
• Contract: 3 years, 36MM
• Average Salary: 12MM/year

• Player: Kerry Wood
• Team: Chicago Cubs
• Contract: 2 years, 13MM
• Average Salary: 6.5MM/year

The Phillies can retain Pat Burrell affordably, however he won’t get the money that Dunn will get. And in regards to two more free agents, the Red Sox will bring back catcher Jason Varitek and the Diamondbacks will retain Randy Johnson. And Greg Maddux, he’ll get the perpetual 10MM one-year deal, this time coming from the Atlanta Braves.

• Player: Pat Burrell
• Team: Philadelphia Phillies
• Contract: 3 years, 39.5MM
• Average Salary: 13.17MM/year

• Player: Jason Varitek
• Team: Red Sox
• Contract: 1 year, 10MM
• Average Salary: 10MM/year

• Player: Randy Johnson
• Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
• Contract: 1 year, 12.5MM
• Average Salary: 12.5MM/year

• Player: Greg Maddux
• Team: Atlanta Braves
• Contract: 1 year, 10MM
• Average Salary: 10MM/year

He who opts out…

…gets a big contract? Yes A.J. Burnett can be a free agent if he wants, electing out of his 5 year, 55MM contract he signed with the Blue Jays a couple years ago. He’s a dark horse for 20 wins, and is striking out over nine per inning. However is ERA is uncharacteristically high, as is his WHIP. The Reds have money to spend apparently, and I honestly see them putting up the cash for Burnett. He should get another four year deal.

• Player: A.J. Burnett
• Team: Cincinnati Reds
• Contract: 4 years, 51MM
• Average Salary: 12.75MM/year

The Blue Jays will be without a pitcher, but they will find a way to land Ivan Rodriguez in Toronto to be their catcher. He will get a modest multi-year deal.

• Player: Ivan Rodriguez
• Team: Toronto Blue Jays
• Contract: 2 years, 18MM
• Average Salary: 9MM/year

Speaking of the Reds again, they apparently want to spend some money, and a solid outfielder they could obtain is Juan Rivera of the Angels. Remember, he’s only two years out of a 23 HR season, and being fully healthy, would be a viable option in the lower part of the lineup for the Reds.

• Player: Juan Rivera
• Team: Cincinnati Reds
• Contract: 2 years, 11MM
• Average Salary: 5.5MM/year

The .500 Pitchers

There is a trio of solid #3, #4 starters on the market. On average, they will win between 11-15 games per year, and pitch to an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. Jon Garland would be one pitcher to move and I see him going to the Braves to stabilize a weak rotation. Derek Lowe is another pitcher in demand, and I see the Dodgers and Red Sox bidding for him, however in the end he will most likely back home this winter. The Dodgers will settle on Braden Looper, who admittedly has developed into a solid starter for the Cardinals. The three year deal, 13.5MM he signed back in 2005 to be Jason Isringhausen’s set up man looks like a bargain in retrospect.

• Player: Jon Garland
• Team: Atlanta Braves
• Contract: 3 years, 32MM
• Average Salary: 10.67MM/year

• Player: Derek Lowe
• Team: Boston Red Sox
• Contract: 3 years, 29MM
• Average Salary: 9.67MM/year

• Player: Braden Looper
• Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
• Contract: 3 years, 27MM
• Average Salary: 9MM/year

The Middle Infield Market

There are a good number of middle infielders on the market this year. Rafeal Furcal should be a Dodger, and I see him re-signing with the team (unsure of the contract personally.) However three players that are the major names in the market outside of Furcal are Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera and Mark Ellis.

The Diamondbacks need a second baseman and re-signing Hudson would be a good move. He won’t get 10MM a year, but 8MM is market value, especially since the Diamondbacks don’t have any immediate options coming up in the minors. Ellis is another solid infielder, and the Cardinals desperately need a dependable infielder. He’ll be an ideal fit. The same thing goes with the Baltimore Orioles. They’ve rotated four different players in and out of shortstop this year after trading away Miguel Tejada in the Winter, and they have no options in the minors to fill the void. Cabrera would make incredible sense for them, and would be an effective signing that would benefit the team. Him and second baseman Brian Roberts would form a solid middle of the infield. Any team that loses out on these players would definitely go after Nick Punto, a player who’s had his share of ESPN Web Gems this season with stellar defensive play.

• Player: Orlando Hudson
• Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
• Contract: 3 years, 25MM
• Average Salary: 8.33MM/year

• Player: Mark Ellis
• Team: St. Louis Cardinals
• Contract: 3 years, 16MM
• Average Salary: 5.33MM/year

• Player: Orlando Cabrera
• Team: Baltimore Orioles
• Contract: 2 years, 17MM
• Average Salary: 8.5MM/year

One Year Deals for the Rest

To round up the list, I see Joe Crede going back to the White Sox for a year to rebuild his value. He has great defense, and if he can stay healthy (he got off to a great start in 2008), he should get a multi-year deal the year afterwards. I do see the Red Sox exercising the perpetual 4MM option on Tim Wakefield, and the Angels would be foolish not to exercise the 15MM year option on Vladimir Guerrero and the 9MM option on John Lackey. Jamie Moyer will be back in a Phillies uniform in 2009, as is Mark Kotsay for the Red Sox and their bench. And the Wild Card, it’s the gambler himself Kenny Rogers. He could retire, but I see the Orioles offering him 3MM to eat innings in a weak rotation, kind of what they’ve did the past two years with Steve Trachsel.

• Player: Joe Crede
• Team: Chicago White Sox
• Contract: 1 year, 7.5MM
• Average Salary: 7.5MM/year

• Player: Mark Kotsay
• Team: Boston Red Sox
• Contract: 1 year, 4.5MM
• Average Salary: 4.5MM/year

• Player: Jamie Moyer
• Team: Philadelphia Phillies
• Contract: 1 year, 5.5MM
• Average Salary: 5.5MM/year

• Player: Kenny Rogers
• Team: Baltimore Orioles
• Contract: 1 year, 3MM
• Average Salary: 3MM/year