Late Innings

Over the past two years, there have been some great third baseman to come up into the majors. We already saw Alex Gordon last year with the Royals and Ryan Braun with the Brewers. This year we’ll most likely get to see Chase Headley for the Padres (though he’ll most likely be in the outfield baring a Kevin Kouzmanoff trade) and Evan Longoria for the Rays. Braun already got a Rookie of the Year under his belt, and Kouzmanoff and Longoria have incredible potential. For some reason however, people forget Gordon in their discussions.

In looking at the numerous Top 100 prospect lists that I’ve seen, for the most part Longoria (or Reds’ outfielder Jay Bruce) tops the 2008 list, especially Keith Law’s of ESPN in particular. The 2007 Top 100 lists were very similar, which had third baseman Gordon topping most people’s lists (he was #2 on Baseball America’s, though Diesuke Matsuzaka wasn’t exactly considered a “prospect” by most people.)

So now 2008 is here, and everyone has seemed to forgotten about Gordon. The apparent interest now is in Longoria, who most people are labelling as one of the greatest third basemen of all-time. Rob Neyer of ESPN continued their man-love towards Longoria by labeling him #20 on their top 50 players in the next five years. The interesting thing about this statement is that Longoria was the only player on that list who didn’t even step foot in the batter’s box of a Major League game.

So going back to my original question, why are we forgetting about Gordon? Granted when he came up with the Royals in his rookie year, he had very little protection. As a result, he ended up with an average under .200 up until the middle of June. However a hot June in 2007 (.327) pushed his average up. He ultimately finished his rookie year with at .247 clip. A far cry from the Rookie of the Year that everyone has proclaimed, however a good portion of his problems were due to a poor lineup around him. His 15 home runs were low, however he wasn’t far behind the 18 of team leader catcher John Buck.

A good portion of why most people are on the Longoria interest is that when he eventually does make his debut, he’ll be in a no-pressure situation. He’ll be surrounded by hitters like Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton. It’s clearly the same situation which happened to Braun last year, when he was surrounded by hitters like Prince Fielder and Corey Hart. I think Longoria will be fine for the Rays in 2008, and I still believe that he’ll win the Rookie of the Year award. However I think that Gordon will be much better than Longoria in 2008. He could be better beyond that…

The Royals’ front office brought in Jose Guillen to add some protection in the lineup, and he does have a 30 home run bat. They also have a great pure hitter in Billy Butler, and an improving outfielder in Mark Teahen. That should be enough protection for Gordon to thrive. Am I expecting him to have a 30 home run season? Not really, though it’s not out of the question (he hit nine in the second half last season, so the power is definitely there.) He could easily hit 25 this year without a problem. Still in the end, it boils down to intangibles when selecting a third baseman. If I had to choose between Gordon and Longoria, given Gordon’s nice speed versus Longoria’s Robin Ventura-esque defense, I’d still take Gordon in the end. He has the talent to be a star in the league.