Late Innings

Behind the scenes of all the trade talk going on yesterday, there were a few players signed to one-year deals, avoiding arbitration cases for the 2008 season. The Royals signed a pair of players would could surprise this season (as I’m expecting); outfielder Mark Teahen re-upped for 2.4MM and starter Zack Greinke signed for 1.4MM. Both players are expected to contribute for Kansas City. In addition to these deals, New York also got outfielder Ryan Church under contract for the 2008 season, for 2MM.

The other signing that I wanted to bring up in particular was Baltimore’s signing of starter Daniel Cabrera, for a 2.9MM contract in 2008. Cabrera faltered last season, losing a major league high 18 games. He has potential galore, and an amazing arm. Like Erik Bedard, many people feel that Cabrera has the stuff to be a #1 starter. However Cabrera’s control problems lead many to believe that he will have a home elsewhere (Baseball America doesn’t even expect Cabrera to be in their rotation in 2001.)

In looking at Daniel’s stats, there are some good things to observe. Unlike Bedard, Cabrera has a healthier track record. The previous two seasons, he didn’t pitch that many innings since he jumped in and out of the minors. Last year he was with Baltimore for the whole season, and he ended up logging over 200 innings (at one point he was amongst the leaders in this category.) Another solid point about Cabrera is his high stikeout rate. He also doesn’t give up many hits; on average of about a hit per inning, which is average. However the few number of hits that he gives up are most likely offset by the large number of batters that Cabrera walks per game.

On average, though his 2006 numbers were high, Daniel will walk roughly 4.5 batters per nine frames. That’s still bad, and he needs to improve on this heavilly if he ever wants to be a front-line starter. New Orioles pitching coach Rick Kranitz will have Cabrera’s raw talent to refine in 2008. If Cabrera can harness his talent, he’ll be dominant.

If the best case situation happens this season, that is Daniel wins 14, strikes out 200 with an ERA under four, Orioles’ president Andy MacPhail will most likely do exactly what he did with Bedard this winter, which is shop the pitcher until he receives an offer which blows him away. Cabrera will be in the same boat next year as Bedard was this year, which is he’s a strikeout artist with two more years of team control (he won’t be a free agent until the 2010 season ends.) If Cabrera has a season like Bedard had in 2007, you can expect many teams to come after him. One of those would most likely be the Yankees, at team who will most likely panic and attempt to rebuild their rotation via checkbook next winter. Of course it only helps Cabrera’s cause that he nearly no-hit the Yankees two years back by a few outs.

Of course we could be entirely wrong here. Cabrera’s “Mr Hyde” side could show itself again in 2008, and he’ll be out of the team’s plans in the future thereafter. For those who are used to seeing him pitch, a typical start for him will be six innings with about five runs allowed. In five of those innings, he’ll shut down his opponent. However the damage is usually delivered all in one inning with Cabrera pitches. If he can put things together, he’ll be an ace.

Baltimore’s had its share of great arms to come up in years past. Some didn’t pan out (Chad Pennington and Matt Riley), others took off after leaving Baltimore (Armando Benitez and John Maine in particular.) Cabrera falls into this group. Even though he doesn’t have the great statistics (yet), he still has some sort of trade value. Teams would rather have Cabrera on their roster instead of someone like Kyle Lohse, who has little to no upside whatsoever. 2008 will determine whether Cabrera’s trade value skyrockets for the following off-season.