Late Innings

While the two blockbuster trades are for the most part on the way, I’d like to turn attention back to the fantasy focus. We last discussed the impact that rookies will make this year, we also discussed the importance of catching on a fantasy team. I want to now bring up a discussion about starting pitching. No, I won’t rank the starters; so many sites do that already. I wanted to bring up things that aren’t mentioned there. And yes, I did change these results based on today’s Johan Santana trade.

In projecting numbers for starting pitchers, things have changed dearly. First and foremost is the fact that there are no longer pitchers like Jack Morris and Dennis Martinez, that is pitchers who could be counted on to throw an eight-inning game and take the team deep into the ballgame (the closest to these comparisons would be Toronto’s Roy Halladay.) Starting pitchers go six innings today, for the most part. After that the game essentially becomes a game of chess between managers whereas each manager lines up their bullpen arms like Gary Kasparov lines up his pieces.

Given the various roles that exist in today’s bullpen, very seldom do pitchers hurl complete games anymore. If the game is close in the sixth inning, the manager will pull his starter for a situational reliever. Same goes if the game is a blowout, when the manager will just put someone in to eat up the remaining innings. The starter could be rested enough to continue, however it’s an entirely new game with the evolution of the bullpen. As a result of this, pitchers rarely win 20 games anymore. Some years we won’t have any 20 game winners. Last year’s 20 game winner, Josh Beckett, was fortunate enough to have a great team behind him. It’s not often that a pitcher wins 67% of his starts (Beckett fought off an injury to make 30 starts in 2007.)

With this in mind, I’m only predicting that there be one 20 game winner (read what I wrote months back. Apparently CBS Sports must read this blog since they’re entirely agreeing with me.) I’l save his discussion for the next post. For the most part, ‘16 wins’ is the new ‘20 wins’. In addition to this, the earned-run averages of starting pitchers will only continue to suffer. This could be because the pitcher will only be in the game for six innings, however I’m believing that it’s because of this new breed of power hitters that is emerging from the post-steroid era… that is sluggers like Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder…

Eight reasons why pitchers will have neck-spams in 2008.

If you look at last season, only one pitcher who qualified for ERA was under 3.00, and that was Jake Peavy. Every starter that was under 3.00 right after the All-Star break saw their ERAs normalize by at least a half run (this includes Peavy, Chris Young, Dan Haren, John Lackey, and even Jeremy Guthrie, whose 2.40 ERA was at one point an AL best.)

Any ways, with out further adieu, this is what I think of the starters in the National League:

• Most Wins: Peavy, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Aaron Harrang
• ERA Leaders: Peavy, Santana, Webb
• Strikeout Champs: Peavy, Santana
• Best 1-2 punch: Arizona gets this nod with Webb and Haren, hands down.
• Best 1-3 rotation punch: I like Los Angeles’s big three, that is Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley. A good team behind them should add wins to their total.
• Best 1-4 rotation: Los Angeles’ addition of Hiroki Kuroda gives them best best four starters in the NL, even if Kuroda only wins ten games.
• Best 1-5 rotation: If Los Angeles gets ten wins from Jason Schmidt, they’ll single-handedly have the best five-man front in the NL.
• Worst Rotation: Any thing that Florida throws in here most likely won’t stick. The best pitcher for them will be Andrew Miller, and he’ll go through a trial of fire this season.
• “In a League of His Own": Roy Oswalt. Seriously, anything that Houston throws out after him will be a joke.
• “Most-Underrated Staff": San Francisco. Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, Matt Cain and Noah Lowry are a very-strong 1-4. They need a better team around them to get wins though. These guys would either be aces or #2 starters on any team.
• “Least likely to have a 10 game winner": Either Florida or Washington should win this award.
• “On the Rebound": Barry Zito had a very nice second half last year. 2008 should be a good one for him. Expect the same from Cincinatti’s Bronson Arroyo.
• “On the Rise": Pittsburgh’s Tom Gorzellany and Los Angeles’ Chad Billingsley will have very nice seasons, same goes with Chris Young of the Pads.
• “The Next Big Thing": Adam Wainright. Mark these words, he will do for the Cardinals what Chris Carpenter used to do for them.
• “Avoid in the Second Half": Penny, Jason Marquis. Actually just avoid Marquis all together, like the plague.
• “I’m not sold on…": Brett Myers, Oliver Perez
• “Best Arm in Waiting": Clay Kershaw, LAD. His path to the majors is currently blocked, that’s a good thing.
• “The Tim Lincecum/Yovanni Gollardo debate": Both will be good in 2008, very good. Period.
• “Bottomed-out in 2007″: Adam Eaton and Chris Capuano (though he was injured.)
• “Two Young Arms That Impress Me": While I avoid Colorado pitchers in general, I do like Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jiminnez.
• “Injury-Candidates": Cole Hamels, Pedro Martinez and (surprise) Ben Sheets.
• “You know what you’re getting from…": Dave Bush, Ted Lilly, Jeff Suppan, Lowe
• “Where to go for Strikeouts": Any Chicago Cub can punch ‘em out, same goes with any New York Met.
• “Where to go for Wins": Any Diamondback or Dodger will rack in the wins.
• “Overall Best Pitcher": Santana, only because Peavy had a really bad 2006 season (not that I don’t think he’ll be great in 2008.)
• “Heavy Sleepers?": Interesting list here. John Maine, Braden Looper, Rich Hill, Homer Bailey, Jeff Francis (he was good), Ian Snell (also solid, only better), Morales, Lowry

Up Next: The American League starting pitchers