Late Innings

Long story short, there were a flurry of moves made today. I’ll analyze each of them, however I wanted to talk about the big signing of the day, that is the Angels signing free agent closer Brian Fuentes.

Fuentes will get 8.5MM in 2009, and 9MM in 2010. There’s also a 9MM vesting option for him in 2011, based on the number of games that he finishes while as an Angel. As to whether this is a player option or team option, I’ll keep checking Cot’s.

I know many of the “saber"-friendly people hate the signings of closers, that is they value them at 5MM a year or what not based on the marginal revenue that they generate, I like this signing big time. Fuentes in my opinion was the best closer on the market. He’s far more durable than Francisco Rodriguez, and was outstanding in 2008. Fuentes was also an All Star in 2007.

The Angels paid Rodriguez 10MM in 2008 (as determined through a losing arbitration case), and they’ll essentially save 1.5MM in “closing costs” going forward. The market for closers has clearly dropped, however I was shocked about the option years between the two elite closers. Rodriguez’s option year is valued at 17.5MM (and is guaranteed after certain stipulations are met.) Fuentes’ is half of that. Again I cannot reiterate enough how good this signing is for the Angels. The main reason why, their stellar bullpen from last season is kept intact. Jose Arrendondo remains the top set up guy, and if Justin Speier can return to form and if Scott Shields remains effective, things can’t be any better for them. Now they just have to address that hole at first base…

In regards to free agent compensation, the Angels will have to surrender their first round pick in next year’s Amateur Draft now to the Rockies, who offered the Type A free agent salary arbitration, which Fuentes rejected. Things are incredibly complicated with the Angels and free agency, since they lost two Type A free agents so far in Mark Teixeira and Rodriguez. Since Teixeira was ranked higher by Elias than Rodriguez, the Yankees will be sending their first round draft pick to the Angels in next year’s draft as well.

Fuentes saved 111 games over the last four seasons for the Rockies. (David Zalubowski/AP)

I know I’m incredibly late with this post (same with the Mark Teixeira discussion.) I got a virus the other day, and that essentially put a damper in my fun. Long story short, everyone by now knows this story. The Orioles non-tendered starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera weeks back, the Nationals, Mets and Pirates were all interested, and Cabrera in fact ended up signing with the Nationals. He got 2.6MM from them for 2009 (essentially a seven percent pay cut from 2008), and is under team control until he becomes a free agent in 2010 (unless the Nationals refuse to tender him a contract next winter that is.)

This story was hit hard days after its announce, and just recently RotoProfessor asked the question as to whether you’d want to own him on your fantasy team. For me it’s an obvious and emphatic “no.” His WHIP is disgusting, strikeouts are down, and his ERA can go in a very bad tailspin in just a matter of three starts. He was essentially a .500 pitcher last year, and that’s largely thanks to a very solid first half. During that first half, many teams were inquiring on Cabrera, and Andy MacPhail could have dealt him easily to the Braves. The main reason why he didn’t? Baltimore was oddly enough in contention in the first half of 2008 (I know that’s odd.) They were a first place team for the first couple months of the season (again, strange), and MacPhail wasn’t going to sell apart a team that was playing incredibly well. The team then stumbled in June, peaked at four games over .500 in July, then went into their traditional late-season tailspin thereafter, locking themselves into the #5 pick for the 2009 Amateur Draft.

Am I disappointed that MacPhail didn’t sell high on Cabrera? Yes. Granted it was fun to watch the team win in April and May, but we all knew that it wasn’t going to last. MacPhail should have stuck to his plan, and not let the team’s sudden winning derail things. Then again, the “winning” allowed the Orioles to keep Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora on their rosters all season, and it was fun to see each of them reestablish their values (Huff was oddly enough not claimed after being exposed to waivers last year after his monster 2008 campaign.)

So anyways lets get back to Cabrera. What do I see from DC in DC? Well not much. I expect him to eat innings for them, being the team’s #3 starter behind John Lannan and Scott Olsen. In regards to others’ projections, Marcel has him at 8-11/4.85/1.55 next year, Bill James has him as a 7-9/5.00/1.53 pitcher. Those are grim signs. As BTBS pointed out weeks ago, Cabrera’s velocity was down in 2008. He relied too heavily on his fastball as well (even with the tutelage of Rick Kranitz), and wasn’t that much of a surprise to hitters. His slider is excellent, however he didn’t use it much. As a result of all of this, he was shutdown for all of September. Then again it’s worth mentioning that Cabrera threw about 3,500 pitches in 2007, and was in the top ten in this category. He pitched 200 innings that year, losing eighteen games in the process, so that wear and tear obviously played a role in 2008.

Long story short, Cabrera should be healthy in 2009. He’ll give the Nationals at least 180 innings in 2009, and at 2.6MM it’s a good deal. He might be a .500 pitcher, but I doubt it (Marcels’ projection is more realistic, given the Nationals’ anemic offense.) The main thing holding Daniel back is his control. When you’re allowing three hitters every two innings, it’s tough to be an effective pitcher. And even though Cabrera is going to the National League, and his ERA might be under five, his control problems are the main thing holding him back from becoming the “next Randy Johnson.” And coming from someone who watched him pitch countless times in Baltimore (often in disgust), my arguments clearly make sense here. The Orioles’ front office obviously was on the same page with me.

Obviously, by reading the title you can tell that I like the Giants’ new signing of Randy Johnson. He’ll slot in nicely in the number three spot in the rotation, and will serve a number of purposes. First and foremost, he’ll deliver at least 175 above-average innings. He’ll add fans to the stands, and most importantly he’ll immediately weaken their division rivals the Diamondbacks.

Johnson’s one year deal is guaranteed 8MM in 2009, with incentives that could push the total compensation up to 12.5MM. It’s a great move by Brian Sabean, and Johnson will clearly bolster their rotation. And as the great RotoProfessor points out, the Giants suddenly have a solid five man rotation from top to bottom. He sees a rebound from Jonathan Sanchez in 2009 (me too, but that WHIP needs to come down.) I honestly expect this signing to benefit Barry Zito more if anything. Zito is not an ace (albeit being paid like one), and with Zito now starting the fourth game of the season, I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke out of the gate strong in 2009 (I’ll save him for my sleeper list.)

Any ways to summarize things, the Giants have a great rotation, and I like their bullpen also (they signed Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt earlier.) They clearly need offense, and the signings of Edgar Renteria and Josh Phelps will help. If Sabean came to me however and asked me for two players to sign to patch up everything, I would open up the checkbook and bring in the following two pieces:

1. Joe Crede
2. Adam Dunn

I recall a piece from last week on ESPN, essentially complaining about how the Yankees can throw their weight around and sign whomever. Take it if you may, but it did require that they in fact throw another 20MM and a seventh year at C.C. Sabathia, that’s what it required to get it done. A.J. Burnett? Again it took a fifth year and 17MM a year to get him pinstripes. So now there’s one key name left on the market, and there are potentially four teams left bidding for Mark Teixeira. So my question here is, why leave out the Yankees, like everyone is apparently doing?

If it wasn’t for the Yankees, Sabathia would have had to settle on 21MM a year. Burnett would have been lucky to get 14MM per. However unlike last year, they’re here to play, and the MLB Players Union (and Derek Lowe for that matter) can’t be any more grateful.

There was a story today on ESPN today about how the Orioles are suddenly likely to sign Teixeira. There were also rumors a plenty over the weekend about how Tex was in Baltimore over the weekend to watch the Steelers defeat the Ravens. A lot of fans in the area are anxious (me included) as well as excited about the possibility of Teixeira signing with his hometown team, the Orioles. My advice, I expect the Yankees to be late players.

Baltimore has been frugal with its cash since Andy MacPhail took helm, however one expensive investment that I would support would be signing Teixeira. He would bring much more value than just being on the field. His defense is extraordinary, he can hit, and he would be exactly what the Orioles need. Then again the same theory applies to the Nationals, and to the Angels, and as many other people are saying, to the Yankees as well.

The Phillies have been busy the past few days. They inked Jamie Moyer today to a two years, 16MM deal. They also signed Chan Ho Park for 2.5MM. And of course on Friday, the team inked Raul Ibanez to a three year, 31.5MM deal. Granted some money has been spent, but I’m not overly disappointed with this moves. I work with a few Phillies fans, and they disagree. I even got a few emails this weekend about people who disagree with me on Ibanez.

The whole day started out with what I read on THT. At least according to Craig Calcaterra, after the Phillies signed Park:

Reason number 137 why, even a couple of months later, it doesn’t feel like the Phillies are the World Champions

And now onto Ibanez, BTBS had the following to say about this signing:

Phillies sign Raul Ibanez to a three year contract worth $30 million. This, on the other hand, is not a very good deal.

And of course, ESPN’s Keith Law doesn’t like the signing one bit, as he wrote in the header:

Signing Ibanez an absurd move by Phillies

Granted the economy has put the damper on free agency spending, however the Phillies didn’t overspend with Ibanez here, not with players like Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu expecting to make 16MM a year. They figure to save about 5MM in 2009, the figure they would have paid Burrell if he had accepted arbitration. Of course, I’ve been saying all along that the Phillies should have at least offered him arbitration. Burrell was a Type A, and if he would have left, the team would have gotten two draft picks next year. Law agrees with that point, and even brings up the following:

The goal should be to give the scouting department more picks, not fewer, unless the move makes the big league club better, which the Burrell-for-Ibanez tradeoff does not.

The main problem with this signing is that the Phillies have to surrender their first round draft pick to the Mariners. However they’re picking at the end of the draft’s first round, so the Phillies front office wasn’t expecting to land a David Price. Still in the end there are worse ways for the team to be spending their money, and some other bloggers actually like the signing. Philly fans have nothing to complain about here; after all they’re surrendering their draft pick to a team which shelled out 48MM to a “ball and chain” named Carlos Silva last year.

It was a good, exciting week. Like many people, I didn’t get much sleep. There were a number of intriguing free agent signings and trades during the past week, as well as the ones that didn’t go down. One player that isn’t signed yet (naturally) is Mark Teixeira. Scott Boras plans to let this go probably a week longer, and I honestly expect that a deal will go down before Christmas.

Who do I think wins the sweepstakes? I’m sticking with my original guess, the Angels. I know many industry experts are expecting Boston to land him, I’m under the impression that Theo Epstein isn’t pleased with Boras, using the media as a means to bump up the price of the star first baseman (e.g. him saying that he had a number of eight-year offers from various teams.) If Boston gets him, they’ll have fun trying to figure out what to do the Kevin Youkilis, Teixeira, Mike Lowell situation. Lowell is the logical choice to go, given the fact that he’s still owed another 24MM over the next two years. However his defense is top notch for a third baseman, and he can hit as well. At 12MM a year, there’s honestly no need to move him. Youkilis is also solid on the other side of the infield, and the team really has no need for Teixeira. The Red Sox usually sign players just so the Yankees don’t, and given the fact that New York shelled out over 250MM for two pitchers, I can’t see them going after Teixeira. Besides, the Red Sox have a first baseman in the wings named Lars Anderson, and given how well the team has developed talent recently, they’d be wise to ease him into their plans, much like they did with Youkilis.

The Angels made an eight year offer, and it was in the ballpark of 22MM a year. Unless the Nationals or Orioles top this offer, I expect the Angels to make a large announcement next week about this signing. Personally I would love to see Teixeira in Baltimore, however Andy MacPhail is relatively a frugal GM (that is when he traded Chad Bradford in August, he said that he could “use the cash.") Boras usually sends his client to the top bidder, and if the Nationals or Orioles throw up 190MM to Teixeira over nine years, that would be highly difficult to turn down. The Angels need Teixeira more than the other teams do (they traded away Casey Kotchman to get him from the Braves), and even though Teixeira has the rumored East Coast preference, I still see the slugger landing with the Angels when it’s all said and done.

Rule V Round Up

Admittedly, I was watching the draft at work, and it wasn’t overly exciting. Most of the picks that were chosen are (if not already) expected to be traded. Some notable selections, obviously the Pirates taking Donald Veal (funny how the Orioles could have had him last winter if they traded Brian Roberts.) The Diamondbacks also took James Skelton, and he could surprise as their catcher. One move that I like was the one that the Mets did, taking Rocky Cherry from the Orioles. Cherry is a serviceable reliever, and I can see him doing very well for them as part of a suddenly deep bullpen. A role for him opened up after they traded Scott Schoeneweis last night. Cherry always had good minor league numbers as well…

Non-Tender Surprises

Like most people, I’m surprised that the Orioles non-tendered Daniel Cabrera. This doesn’t necessarily mean that his Orioles’ career is over, since Andy MacPhail could resign him for cheaper, however the interest for him from other teams is high. He could be slotted into a rotation, and eat 180 or so innings. At 3.5MM, I don’t understand why Baltimore didn’t tender him a contract, unless he has other plans…

The economy once again plays a hand with the non-tenders, and teams don’t want to give raises to players like Ty Wigginton, Willy Taveras and Tim Redding. Some bullpen bargains that can be had however are Chris Britton (non-tendered by the Yankees), and Aquilino Lopez, another surprising non-tender by Detroit (in 2008 a 3.55 ERA in 80 innings for 800K?)

Another Dayton Moore Sighting

Here’s a signing that made my stomach churn when I saw it later in the week (officiated minutes ago), the Royals gave 9.25MM to Kyle Farnsworth, something I don’t quite understand. He was a below-average reliever the past three years, and I still consider him a club house “cancer” (he’ll go along well with Jose Guillen.) Another poignant piece decomposing this signing can be found here.

The Yankees’ 82MM Pitcher, and the Phillies 31MM outfielder

On close, there were two big signings yesterday. Let’s start with what happened in Philly. The Phillies inked Raul Ibanez to a three year contract yesterday. I like this move, however others are wondering why the Phillies just didn’t sign Pat Burrell instead (the better all hit, no-glove outfielder, as someone put it.) I can understand why the Phillies didn’t offer him arbitration, since they didn’t want to get stuck with a 15MM contract for him next year. Still going from some Phillies fans I know, when Burrell first came up, he had the reputation of being a “party animal.” One of my co-workers said that he spotted him in an area Dave and Busters, and fans would apparently lean over the outfield rails and ask him “WHAT DID YOU DRINK LAST NIGHT PAT?” I don’t think this was a reason why the Phillies wanted to cut ties though, he just got too expensive.

Speaking of getting too expensive, the bidding for A.J. Burnett escalated in a hurry. The Yankees won this thing, with a five year, 82MM bid. Keith Law likes the signing, however I’m cautious about Burnett’s injury history. He only had two seasons in which he started 30 games, and those came in contract years. Maybe 2008 put him in the right direction. If that’s true, this is a good signing then. Burnett can be an easy ace in any rotation, but now he’ll be matched up against teams’ #2 starters, thanks to the emergence of C.C. Sabathia.

Update (Mon 12-15): This still didn’t happen, and I jumped the gun on the ESPN report. The two teams are still haggling over how much Milwaukee should chip in, though Cameron at 10MM is by no means being over-paid. Bill Hall and Kei Igawa are also rumored to be in the trade.

According to ESPN, the Yankees acquired center fielder Mike Cameron from the Brewers for Melky Cabrera. This move will save the Brewers 10MM, who picked up Cameron’s 2009 option earlier in the off-season.

Simply put, I love this move on the Yankees’ behalf. Given Cameron’s defense and his power, he’s worth well-more than his salary. Cabrera could blossom in Milwaukee, and that could possibly occur. They have him under team control for four more years.

With C.C. Sabathia gone, apparently Doug Melvin has no qualms about trading friends of the former pitcher. Next on the list I expect to move is Bill Hall, guaranteed 16MM over the next two years.

Cameron hit .243 with 25 HRs and 70 RBIs in 120 games with the Brewers in 2008.

Obviously I’m not sleeping either… I touched on this earlier, but the Mets officially acquired J.J. Putz from the Mariners as part of a three team deal. They signed free agent Francisco Rodriguez a day earlier for 37MM over three years. Per Rosenthal:

Under terms of the deal, the Mets get Putz, outfielder Jeremy Reed and reliever Sean Green from Seattle. The Mariners receive reliever Aaron Heilman, outfielder Endy Chavez, first baseman Mike Carp, and minor leaguers Maikel Cleto, Jason Vargas and Ezequiel Carrera from the Mets. They also get Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians and minor leaguers. The Indians get reliever Joe Smith from the Mets and infielder Luis Valbuena from Seattle.

I wonder if this counts as Jack Zduriencik’s first trade, but in either case I like it for the Mariners. I’ll wait for more info on the prospects (BA does a good roundup of this), but I’ve always been fond of Gutierrez. The Mariners also get a slew of pieces in this deal which can be plugged anywhere. From the Mets’ prospective, this deal plays out good for them as well. The last two innings are going to be solid for them next season, and they can still bridge the gap by picking up another arm on the market (e.g. Juan Cruz.) I’ve always been fond of Reed as well, and I think last year he finally started to live up to the high prospect tag that he had years ago. The Indians most-likely made this move to shed some salary, though Gutierrez isn’t arbitration eligible yet. They also get solid bullpen depth with Smith, who should be setting up for Kerry Wood (about to sign a two year, 20MM deal.)

In either case, a solid move on all fronts. Give Zduriencik some credit for selling high on Putz, especially with the market for closers being as saturated as it is.

Putz was 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA and 15 saves last season. (Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

So much stuff happened today, and I’ll briefly touch on all of it. This is so far a very-exciting week at the Bellagio.

• The morning opened with a big bang: the Yankees got C.C. Sabathia under wraps for a whopping 161MM over seven years. Judging by the fact that Sabathia threw over 500 innings the last two years, I wonder when he’ll break down…
• Speaking of other big contracts, the Orioles offered Mark Teixeira a seven year deal, while the Nationals one-upped this with an eight year offer of their own (averaging 22.5MM a year.) As an O’s fan I’m excited, especially since Andy MacPhail is ready to increase this offer and be competitive for Tex’s services.
• More on the Orioles, they agreed to a two year, 6MM deal with shortstop Cesar Izturis. I like this move, since Izturis brings affordable speed and defense.
• The Orioles also need a catcher now with Ramon Hernandez being traded. They’ve kicked tires on Michael Barrett and Greg Zaun, however cannot now acquire Pirates’ backup Ronny Paulino, who was acquired this evening by the Phillies.
• The Orioles, after giving up on Jon Garland, are now interested in starting pitcher Braden Looper. Looper was a Type B who was not offered arbitration by his club, and the Cardinals will not receive draft compensation after he leaves.
• The Tigers swapped Matt Joyce for the Rays’ Edwin Jackson. This trade will help both clubs in my opinion.
• The Mets are also expected to get more relief help, and are deep in a three-way trade talk for Mariners’ closer J.J. Putz.
• The Cubs are now starting to take a firmer stance in the Jake Peavy trade talks, knowing that they’re the only party that’s interested in the Padres ace.
• The Yankees have extended their offer to A.J. Burnett for five years, at approximately 17MM per. Derek Lowe could potentially follow as well.
• Baseball America has a list of players available for all thirty teams for the big end of week Rule V draft.
• Four internet writers were introduced into the Baseball Writers Association of America. Congrats to all four, they’re all outstanding writers.
• Scott Boras gave the keynote address this afternoon.
• The Royals brought back Horacio Ramirez. He should provide bullpen depth given the fact that Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez were dealt earlier in November.
• Aubrey Huff broke David Ortiz’s six year streak of being the top DH in the American League.
• And lastly, things would get back for the Brewers if the Yankees also sign Ben Sheets. He was also a Type A and also rejected the team’s arbitration offer. The Yankees can’t give the Brewers two first-round compensation picks.

According to Joel Sherman in the New York Post, free agent pitcher C.C. Sabathia agrees in principle to a six year, 140MM deal with the New York Yankees.

The model to remember here folks: money always talk, unless you’re of course Craig Calcaterra.

And now a little humor for this evening… there was a bogus rumor which surfaced in the Seattle Times, which a reporter flew a rumor by a Cubs official. That is another bad contract swap… Carlos Silva for “Kosume (sic) Fukodome” as he put it. The officials quickly dismissed this (naturally), however like so many bad rumors today this one swiftly got some exposure. Me? I could see Kosuke Fukodome prosper in Seattle. He looks like he’s in dire need of a change of scenery, especially given how all it took was one prolonged slump which quickly got him in Lou Pinella’s “dog house” (which contains other players like Felix Pie, et al.)

A no-pressure environment like Seattle might be good for him, but I don’t think that the Cubs would want Silva, a pitcher who lost 15 games in 2008. The Mariners paid him 3MM per win last year, and given the Cubs stacked rotation, he would sure look stick out like a sore thumb (especially if they acquire Jake Peavy.) I’m not sure where this rumor was made up. Personally I think the reporter fabricated everything, in hope something sticks. I don’t blame him. When your team loses 100 games, you should try everything.

Bad Product Endorsement

In honor of this bogus trade rumor, I “sponsored” Carlos Silva today, that is by purchasing his page on baseball-reference.com. I’m not sure if this counts as buying traffic, but heck if Silva wins 21 or so games next year, I’m going to look like a genius. After all it happened for Esteban Loaiza. And this will also only happen if a volcano goes off in Detroit, and as we all know a volcano won’t go off in Detroit.

As your sponsor, I command you not to suck in 2009.

Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon is best known for wanting to go year-to-year during his three arbitration years, which start in 2009. He’s also made it known that he wants to set the salary “standard” for closers. If going by today’s numbers, the highest total years for a closer went to B.J. Ryan (five years.) Total compensation? Both Ryan and Joe Nathan received 47MM in their deals. Highest average salary? That’s held by Mariano Rivera, who makes on average of 15MM per year on his contract signed before last season.

Papelbon presumably wants to exceed the numbers given above on all fronts, however the one thing to note: the demand for closers fell from last summer just as sharply as the demand for oil did. Tell this to Francisco Rodriguez, the Angels free agent closer who saved 62 games last year. He wanted 75MM over five years, and he’ll now get 37MM over three from the Mets. That’s less than the 37.5MM that Brad Lidge got from the Phillies earlier this year.

Kerry Wood is also expected to sign a modest deal with the Indians as well, only for two years. So it’s clear that the market is down for closers now, and if you were Jonathan Papelbon, what would you do? If Theo Epstein came to you with a four year deal for 28MM, would you accept? Keep in mind a four year deal would buy out his three arbitration years…

Update: Per Roch, the two prospects are “Brandon Waring, a 22-year-old third baseman, and Justin Turner, a 24-year-old second baseman.”

This was mentioned yesterday, and is all but certain to now happen. The Reds are to acquire Orioles backstop Ramon Hernandez and 1MM in cash for Ryan Freel and two “mid-level prospects.” Originally I wasn’t too happy about Baltimore chipping in the extra money (due to the clear talent difference between Hernandez and Freel), but again, he gets to more prospects. These will most-likely be announced after the deal is ratified by the Office of the Commissioner (since there’s cash being moved in this transaction.)

As an O’s fan, I like this move. Freel is a fourth outfielder and will be paid 4MM in 2009, but one thing good about him is the fact that he gets on base. He also plays exceptional defense. Once again Andy MacPhail is able to maximize his return on another trade. Hernandez is due 8MM in 2009, and has a 8.5MM club option in 2010, with a 1MM buyout.

With this stated, the Orioles need a catcher to bridge the gap to super-prospect Matt Wieters is ready. I’m pretty sure that he’ll open the season in Triple-A Norfolk next year, and have his call up around May 31st. There’s not any reason as to do this, other than to push back his service time by a year. He’ll be a Super Two most likely (that is have a fourth year of arbitration), however he’ll be under team control for another year. This is what the Brewers did with Ryan Braun, and the Reds did with Jay Bruce. On an aside, the Orioles are all but certain to be moving on from Jon Garland, who is demanding 13MM a year. Good luck with that Jon.

Ramon hit .257/.308/.406 last year with 15 HR (Baltimore Sun photo by Gene Sweeney Jr. / April 3, 2006.)

Wow, the Winter Meetings have been exciting. A brief note about me: I work full time as an engineer, and dump posts into this blog whenever I get a chance throughout the day. There has been so much to comment on lately as well. One story that got my attention was this supposed rumor for Zack Greinke for Jeff Francouer. This news got the ire of the entire baseball world this morning. Hopefully Dayton Moore got the memo:

A trade that should never be mentioned again…

I know that some of the things that are uttered in the Bellagio shouldn’t be taken with a dime of salt, still with BP is talking about this it’s still something to mention. Moore has been rumored to be smitten over Francouer, presumably during his days as a Braves scout (long before he was the Royals GM.) However coughing up a (saber-) ace for a player banished to the minors, doesn’t get on base, and foolishly turned down a long-term deal from Atlanta management… Granted I know that Greinke is going to be getting expensive soon, however any trades that start with him and the Braves need to be centered around Tommy Hanson.

Moore thankfully shot this thing down today.

I’ve seen a few interesting items today that I should pass along:

…

I wanted to give props today to the excellent Hot Stove coverage of the Winter Meetings going on at MLB Trade Rumors. Tim Dierkes is clearly burning the midnight oil (I’ve seen him on Google Chat at 3AM one day this week, and there were a few 4AM posting as well.) His coverage on the event is in my opinion the best and most comprehensive I’ve ever seen (RotoWorld gets second place here.) On average his site usually has around 75 fresh posts a week (according to Ball Hype.) He hit close to that yesterday alone. That dedication alone deserves my respect, since everyone deep down is a rumor addict.

…

Readers of ShysterBall know that Craig Calcaterra recently moved his blog over to The Hardball Times two weeks ago. However he revealed this interesting tidbit this morning on the THT daily update:

…as soon as I made it known I was going to move my blog, The Sporting News offered me an insane amount of money. … Then I ran into Studeman in a Vegas hotel and told him that I’d really like to come to the Hardball Times, and the rest is history

Wow, I know many writers are mad at him (e.g. the “Bloggers Union"), but I’m proud that he put his own interests over money. What I would have done in the same situation is a little different… I’d take the Sporting News offer to ESPN and use that as a ploy.

…

Lastly just like everyone else, MLB.com is laying off about 5% of its staff (they have 450 employees give or take.) I’ve seen a few front offices cut about 10% of their staff, and the recession is impacting baseball everywhere.

According to Josh Towers in the Union Tribune, a three-way trade framework is in place. At a minimum, the Cubs will get Jake Peavy, the Padres get Garrett Olsen, and the Orioles will get Felix Pie. All three teams are clearly happy, and this trade is just pending approval on the Cubs’ side (keep in mind an impending team sale.) I forget what I read, but apparently Kevin Towers wants this either done by Thursday, or Peavy will open 2009 as a Padre.

Regardless, I’ve expressed my interest in Pie before, and I think Olsen is a fair price for the gamble on his talents.

Update (Tues 2:42 PM): According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, the 17.1MM deal for Blake will be announced Thursday. Also, the team inked free agent Mark Loretta to a 1.25MM deal last night (not a bad signing at all.)

I’m reading RotoWorld now, and apparently Casey Blake is about to sign a three-year deal with the Dodgers. BTBS is also discussing this now. The Indians apparently were interested, as were the Twins. The main reason here is that the Dodgers went the extra mile and gave Blake that third guaranteed year. RotoWorld isn’t too optimistic about the deal:

This looks like another awful multiyear deal handed out by Ned Colletti, but we suppose one of them will have to work out eventually.

I’m not sure if I agree with this. Blake’s not going to handcuff the team with a contract in terms of both term and compensation. There have been far worse deals given out the past two years, and Blake does offer a sense of consistency, though he essentially has little value over the replacement player (if any.) At 17MM, it’s not that bad of a contract (the average value is less than the 6.2MM that Blake got in 2008.) They would have got compensation if Blake signed elsewhere since he was a Type B and was offered arbitration, but he cost the team the young catching prospect Carlos Santana last July.

This signing isn’t overly surprising. Heck, I even predicted that Blake would get a three year with the Dodgers deal back in August. Then again I guessed 25MM, and that was before the whole “worst economic times since the Great Depression” rhetoric kicked in. Still this deal in the end will only hurt the third baseman market, which includes both free agency (Joe Crede) and trades (Garrett Atkins.)

“Day One” of the Winter Meetings is here, and part of me wishes that I was in the Bellagio with the rest of the reporters and front office personnel. As to what goes on at the meetings, I’m not sure. Still I’m sure that GMs try to slip Scott Boras a roofie or two. The last thing he would want is to wake up and realize that one of his players was signed below market-value. Maybe this could be a ploy that Andy MacPhail could use… I would love to see Mark Teixeira in Baltimore in 2009; 15MM a year would be even better.

The Trade That Did Happen Yesterday

Everyone expected Jermaine Dye to be a Red last night, however team officials on both clubs quickly dismissed that rumor. One trade that did happen last night was with the Tigers, who got an above-average backstop in Gerald Laird. His defense is solid, and he also has a solid bat too, though without solid power. He’s under team control for two more years, and being a Boras client, he should cost around 4MM a year during this span.

I like this move on the Tigers’ behalf, and I also like it on the Rangers’ as well (Baseball America discusses the two arms dealt.) Jon Daniels is presumably under orders to cut salary, and Laird is a logical fit to go, given the team’s current catching logjam. It’s not a bad return by any means, and many are speculating that Moscoso could be the next Jair Jurjens, which going by last season’s results isn’t a bad thing.

Daniels still has too many corner-outfield, 1B, DH types remaining now as well, given David Murphy, Chris Davis, and even Max Ramirez could all offer the same flexibility. Milton Bradley’s departure opens up a slot for one of them, and I could still see Daniels dealing Hank Blalock to someone. Again, at 6.2MM he’s likely to move, and the Giants have been rumored to be interested. He’d be a great pickup if they grabbed him, and he shouldn’t cost them a Jonathan Sanchez (as many Rangers fans are hoping.)

On an aside, I wonder where Brandon Inge sits in the team’s 2009 plans…

Shortstop Plethora

The other piece of the Giants’ left-side of the infield features newly-signed Edgar Renteria, inked to a 18.5MM deal over two years. The dollar amount surprises me, but I don’t think it’s a bad move that’ll hurt them for years to come (think Barry Zito.) And I think he’ll revert back to his NL-friendly numbers. Still with that all said, there are way too many shortstops on the market today. The other name that’s been rumored to be traded is Jack Wilson, and the asking price that’s on him from the Pirates is high.

I’m not sure why any team would cough up two plus prospects for (potentially) two years of expensive baseball of Wilson. Grated his glove is good, but then again there are other options who deliver the same defensive talents that he does, notably Adam Everett, Nick Punto and Cesar Izturis.

Update: Everett signed with the Tigers today for 1MM.

…

Rafeal Furcal turned down a four year/36MM offer from the A’s, and many are expecting him to now resign with the Dodgers. His agent Paul Kinzer is seeking 52MM over the same term, and the injury he had last year prevented him from receiving any classification from Elias (the Dodgers won’t receive any compensation if he leaves.) Personally I’d rather see Baltimore sign him for 10MM a year than spend 20MM a year on Tex. His four years in Los Angeles were very good. He was the front-runner for the MVP last season, before the back injury came into play. He’s not as fragile as many writers make it seem… Still ESPN and Jayson Stark believe that he’ll sign his contract this week.

Some other random notes from today:

• The Phillies and Jamie Moyer are still hung up in dollar discussions. He was very solid in 2008, and I see no reason why he should receive a pay cut from his 8.5MM he clearly earned last year (in comparison, consider what Carlos Silva did last year.) The team might regret not offering the Type A free agent arbitration.
• The Mariners obtained another 1B/OF/DH in Chris Shelton, Jack Zduriencik’s second move.

• MASN’s Roch Kubatko is under the impression that Ramon Hernandez is to be moved this week, as part of a salary swap. Apparently a framework for a deal is already in place, as he writes:

  In return, the Orioles would get a utility-type player who could move from the infield to the outfield.

  He mentions the Reds as being the suitor here, and Tim Dierkes of MLBTR speculates that Ryan Freel is the most-likely candidate (that was my guess too.) I wouldn’t mind Freel personally. Tossing out the two DUIs, he at least gets on base often and plays plus defense. That alone probably caught MacPhail’s eye. Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun also chimes in here on this rumor.

• More on Roch, teams are apparently asking about Daniel Cabrera. He also speculates that the O’s could non-tender Cabrera… speaking of non-tenders there has been a rumor out about the Mariners non-tendering Erik Bedard, but Roch is getting the impression that they’ll offer him a contract for 2009. People were speculating a possible return of him to Baltimore, with news of Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie hanging out in Las Vegas this week (the Adam Jones trade would only look more lopsided if this happened.)

Update (10:28 PM): this was supposedly shot down by White Sox officials.

I saw this on RotoWorld tonight, as well as a few other sites. Long story short, apparently Cincinnati traded Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye. Dye will be a free agent after next season, and Bailey is under team control for a good five years with the White Sox.

I’m not sure why the Reds would do this. Granted Dye brings pop, but Bailey is a stud in need of a new environment. Then again this is one of the moves that Kenny Williams makes that nobody knows about. First he got Gavin Floyd, then John Danks. I’m starting to see how the White Sox build their rotations… yes this is a steal on the White Sox’ behalf. Bailey is someone you build a rotation around.

Here’s another link backing this claim. BTBS also contributes here. One more link. This trade is apparently a done deal. Expect this trade to happen early this week, during the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas.

Dye averaged about 33 HR in four seasons with the White Sox (CNN SI.)

I’m sitting here… kinda drunk. Winter meetings are around the corner, and I’m excited. I really expect that Jake Peavy will be traded within the weeks, and I really think that Baltimore will be involved, and I really think that they’ll give up Garrett Olsen.

Any ways I’m obviously drunk now, and am clearly excited about this week. Will Baltimore trade Ramon Hernandez to the Reds as part of a salary dump? Will Andy MacPhail move Brian Roberts for a good set of prospects? Will the team make a move for Mark Teixeira?

That’s what I’d like to see happen this week. I want to see Felix Pie being part of the 40 man roster. I want to see some salary dumped, and some prospects brought in (Hernandez and his 15 HR from last year don’t necessarily count as a salary dump.) And I’m curious to see what happens during next weeks’ Rule V draft… yes, that will be the biggest drinking night of the year for me. That and a good shortstop with an OPS over .575… yeah that would be hot.

Here’s a shocker: the Cardinals acquired Padres shortstop Khalil Greene for a pair of “relief prospects". There was speculation that he was going to be traded before next week’s Winter meetings, and with Kevin Towers under orders to cut payroll, Greene and his 6.5MM was a logical choice to go. Until we know more about the prospects, it’s hard to rate this trade. Still give credit to the Cardinals for being there on the end of the salary dump. On an aside, I’m glad that the Orioles didn’t cough up Garrett Olsen for Greene.

After hitting 27 HR in 2007, Greene dropped down to 10 in 2008 (image Fox Sports.)

Outside of the Dustin Pedroia contract, there were a few other stories worth note today:

• Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus questions why the Yankees didn’t offer Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettite arbitration. The same theory applies to the Phillies (with Pat Burrel and Jamie Moyer), Cubs (with Kerry Wood) and Diamondbacks with Adam Dunn. The argument, the draft picks received from their Type A status are far more valuable in the long run than the risk of each player hanging on for another year term.
• Here’s another argument in favor of Tommy Hanson breaking camp and being in the Braves’ rotation next April. I see him as next year’s Jonny Cueto.
• The Giants added more bullpen depth by signing Bob Howry (after not being offered arbitration by the Cubs.)
• The Cardinals did the same, finalizing a one-year deal with former Ray reliever Trevor Miller.
• The Mariners signed a one-year deal with Russell Branyan, which shouldn’t be worth more than 1MM. Considering the fact that he had an .925 OPS in under 200 at bats with the Brewers, this not a bad first move for Jack Zduriencik.

Boston inked AL-MVP second baseman Dustin Pedroia to a six year extension today, worth 40.5MM in total (actually it’s 42MM including the signing bonus.) This contract covers his three arbitration years, plus two more years of free agency. I know people in Boston are referring to this as a “bargain", but I wouldn’t go that far. This is the fourth highest contract ever given to a pre-arbitration eligible player, following Hanley Ramirez (6/70MM), David Wright (6/55MM) and Ryan Braun (7/45MM, or 51MM if he’s “super two” next year.) Still, Boston would save 10MM extra now, since they don’t have to go year-to-year during his arbitration years.

Still I know that the economy was clearly a factor here. Pedroia originally expressed his intention to go year-to-year, as did Kevin Youkilis, Jonothan Papelbon, Russell Martin and NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. When this news came out, I expected more of these players to suddenly have a change of heart. Within minutes of this signing, a piece broke on MLBTR about how Lincecum wouldn’t mind an extension (he sees a breakdown in the future apparently.)

Breaking down the Pedroia contract, we see that he only receives 16MM during his three arbitraiton years, including a paltry 3.5MM in his first season. The breakdown is as follows:

• 2009: $3MM (with signing bonus)
• 2010: $3.5MM
• 2011: $5.5MM
• 2012: $8MM
• 2013: $10MM
• 2014: $10MM
• 2015: $11MM (team option)
• Total: $42MM, $53MM with option

So with this all being officially done, I honestly expect Nick Markakis to change his mind as well and get the extension done. This signing only hurt him, especially since many were expecting that he’d grab 5MM alone in 2009, his first season of salary arbitration. My guess to the Markakis contract, 6 years/51.5MM does the trick (three free agency years.) That’s what Daisuke Matsuzaka got when coming over two years ago as well.

In either case, Boston made out well. If MLB player valuation remains constant or increases over the term of Pedroia’s contract, then I would declare this move a “steal” for the Red Sox. Still like everything else, including this offseason, to paraphrase James Carville, it’s clearly the economy, stupid.

Update: The third player might be catching prospect Tyler Flowers, according to Rosenthal. And he mentions that Reyes is not in the trade. We’ll see how this breaks out, but this all but certain ends the Braves’ interest in Jake Peavy.

Here’s the story on ESPN, which just broke minutes ago. It’s a five-player trade:

• White Sox get: Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge, “another top prospect”
• Braves get: Vazquez, Boone Logan

I’m not sure what ESPN means by “another top prospect", but I’m all but certain that it’s not Tommy Hanson, who will most likely be in the Braves’ rotation in 2009. You could possibly throw out Jason Heyward as well. Granted assuming the White Sox don’t receive one of those two players, I give the edge to the Braves here. Vazquez doesn’t let hitters make contact with him (about 9 K/9), and I wouldn’t be surprised if his ERA goes down by a run in the National League. Logan will go right into Bobby Cox’s bullpen.

White Sox GM Ken Williams does have a knack for observing talent, and Reyes and Lillibridge had to have caught his eye. Lillibridge will add more depth to the middle infield, and should mitigate the blow of Orlando Cabrera leaving. And I personally think that Reyes can be a strong starter, especially with the White Sox now having him under team control until 2013.

News item from yesterday: the Astros made the third free agent signing of the winter, inking pitcher Mike Hampton to a 2MM one-year deal (with 2MM more of possible incentives.) I don’t dislike the move, and was reading a great piece on BTBS today about how the Astros could have better spent their money, especially since they’re supposedly cash-strapped. They recommended that they put 800K into Claudio Vargas, who would basically generate the same results (with a healthier track record.)

The big shocker yesterday was why the Astros declined arbitration to Randy Wolf. Granted he only made 8.5MM last year, but his results in Houston were solid. Were they afraid of him accepting their offer and then going to arbitration with them next February? The smallest paycut he could have took was a 7MM salary for 2009, and I highly doubt that the interest for him would be so good that he’d get a multi-year offer from another team. That’s the same reasoning with Ben Sheets, who was offered arbitration by the Brewers. The Brewers aren’t as bad off financially as the Astros are, and would love to have Sheets back on a one year deal (the same obviously goes with C.C. Sabathia.)

In regards to all the players that were offered arbitration yesterday, BA has a great piece up running through all thirty teams. All in all, 24 players were offered arbitration this year, up from 17 the year before. However in regards to whether the decisions should have been made, the economy clearly played a hand here.

We’re officially in a recession, and if there’s anything good about it, it’s that it’ll drive down the inflated salaries of some particular players. Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettite were slated to pull in 18MM next year if the Yankees offered (he’s a Type A), and same thing goes with Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell, who could have each made 15MM in 2009. Each should now have salaries in the 8MM to 10MM range next year, due to low demand for their services. Abreu and Pettite were due for pay cuts anyways, especially since the Angels declined Garrett Anderson’s 11.5MM option for 2009 (a very-similar player.)

What also came out of yesterday was the decline in closer demand. Kerry Wood and Trevor Hoffman weren’t offered arbitration, and would be much safer choices for teams looking at ninth inning help (since draft picks won’t have to be surrendered next June in the Amateur Draft.) Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes and Brandon Lyon were all offered arbitration yesterday, and this news only hurt their values. If anything I now see Rodriguez getting a deal similar to what Francisco Cordero got from the Reds last year.

Don’t get me wrong, the upper-echilon of talent will be rewarded this year, that is Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett, any of the Dodgers’ offerings and Raul Ibanez, who should all receive multi-year deals within the next month or two. However players like Jon Garland, Sheets, and even Fuentes and Rodriguez, I can see them accepting the arbitration offerings, simply because the demand is down this year and they can wait around for a year to see if the market turns around.

The economy really is putting a damper on this offseason. I clearly expected more spending and trades. I thought something big was going to happen on Thanksgiving as well. I guess the only thing that teams have to do now is to weather this storm. If anything, this news from yesterday only makes the trades for Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn look poor in retrospect.

Edgar Renteria’s value shot up yesterday. (Reuters Pictures)

Before Thanksgiving, we heard rumors about a Third Team being involved with the Cubs and Padres in a blockbuster trade for Padres’ ace Jake Peavy. That mysterious team, at least according to Steve Gilbert of mlb.com, is the Orioles. I’ve been saying for some time now that if the Padres were to trade their ace, they’d want back MLB-ready pitching. The Cubs have some, but it’s not exactly what the Padres are expecting. Rich Hill’s stock has fallen dramatically, Sean Marshall doesn’t fit their bill, and of course there’s Jason Marquis, who has 9MM owed to him in the final year of his three-year contract signed two years ago.

The Padres have been coveting Oriole’s hurler Garrett Olsen, a soft-tosser who might be best moving to the weaker National League. He’s dominated at the minor league level, however is far too inconsistent in the majors. Granted the Orioles probably didn’t give him enough time to develop (likewise with John Maine), however if he alone could net you Felix Pie, then the move should be made. Andy MacPhail and the Orioles have been coveting Pie for sometime now. He was the Cubs top prospect in 2007, however likewise with many Cubs prospects of late (e.g. Don Veal), his stock as fallen. I honestly believed that he was about to be heading to Baltimore this past Spring with Sean Gallagher for Brian Roberts (I read a incredibly-respectable source.) However that trade didn’t happen (and Gallagher is now a member of the A’s rotation.)

Long story short, if MacPhail pulls off this move and acquires Pie during the Winter Meetings in two weeks, I’ll be very happy. An outfield of Pie, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones could be incredible, especially with all three of them being 25 and under. Luke Scott could be part of a DH platoon, and Aubrey Huff could be the team’s first baseman. Granted I know that Baltimore would be moving some pitching for acquiring hitting, but this is a move that I would like. There are many people in Chicago who are saying that the team shouldn’t be giving up on Pie right now. Besides, given how slow the market has been going of late, the team might be able to snag a starter for cheap soon.

Cardinals’ shortstop Felipe Lopez, acquired in media res last season from the Nationals, was quite the star. Looking at the slashes he got from his new team: .385/.426/.538. Wow. So teams on the West Coast are courting Edgar Renteria, Rafeal Furcal and Orlando Cabrera, yet no one is interested in Lopez? The reason why, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick puts it:

…his .418 batting average on balls in play after the All-Star break makes some teams wonder if there wasn’t an inordinate amount of luck involved…

Unless Scott Boras can sell him as “The Ted Williams of BABIP", then he won’t be getting paid on the same level as Furcal will. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a bad option. He runs well and has occasional power (though he won’t hit 23 HR again like he did in 2005), however I feel as though he got lazy the last couple of years. It’s amazing what free agency can do to a player. I won’t complain if some team gives him two years of 12MM baseball.

…

I had some other links today to comment on, however in the spirit of Thanksgiving I donated them to Mr. Dierkes at Trade Rumors. So that’s why I’m rather quiet tonight. That, and I’ve been drinking heavily. And yes it’s only 6PM EST… so this will be a long night.

To paraphrase loosely what Joe Biden said during the Presidential Campaign, something big will happen tomorrow, in either the MLB free agent or trade market. I really hope so too; the market has been relatively stagnant of late. Any ways Happy Thanksgiving to all readers of Late Innings! I promise many months of useless posts ahead for your reading displeasure.

Fact: tomorrow is the biggest drinking day of the year. Now I’m not really sure if that’s true or not, especially since many college students can claim that any day is the “biggest drinking day of the year.” Any ways I’m going out tomorrow, and I will drink. It’s the day before Thanksgiving, and it’s traditional. Last year I did the same, got fairly, um drunk, and woke up in my parents’ home the next day to the horror in the news: Torii Hunter gets a 90MM contract from the Angels. Sad to say, that wasn’t the best way to fight a hangover.

Long story short, big contracts happen on Turkey Day. It’s tradition. Take a look at this offseason, there has been very little activity of late. The biggest compensation so far has gone to Ryan Dempster (52MM), who trumped the 41MM that was given to Kyle Lohse by the Cardinals. The 2008 winter needs a big contract to kick off the month of frivolous spending, or so we all hope. Granted we’re all in the “worst economic times since the Great Depression” (as some presidential candidate put it from his rhetoric.) And even though MLB made over 6.5 billion in revenue, teams aren’t going to be spending as much as they’ve did historically in the past. Still the month leading up until Christmas is when all of the free agents typically sign (Scott Boras and his clients hold out until the bitter end.) And Thanksgiving is usually the “shot heard round the world” each year.

I’m not sure what will happen this Thanksgiving. Last year we of course had Hunter’s big contract. The year before the Angels were at it again, giving up 55MM to Gary Matthews Jr. And across town, the Dodgers gave 45MM to Juan Pierre. Two years ago we didn’t have a big signing, however we had a blockbuster trade. Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, Mike Jacobs and Carlos Delgado all changed teams that day.

Any ways I put some thought to this and came up with three headlines I don’t want to see this Thanksgiving:

The scary thing is that this could happen.

I’ve been watching the rumors. The Cubs and Braves are balking at Kevin Towers’ demands and are now starting to walk away. The Padres need to trade Peavy, due to clear salary issues. That, and the team is a mess right now. The one team that could easily take him and has the starting pitching that Towers’ so clearly needs: the Yankees.

I’m a fan of the O’s and I don’t want to see the Yankees improve themselves. The division is tough, and a good Yankees team makes competition worse. They’ve already made out well with recent deals, such as trades for Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher… and I could see them robbing Peavy. I know he has the no trade clause, but that’s usually never an issue. As to what Towers would ask for? They have Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Both of them are being sold low, but would be much welcome in San Diego, and I could see a three player trade built around those two. Plus neither of them would be of much use after the team signs Derek Lowe, C.C. Sabathia, et al. Speaking of Sabathia:

A dark horse suddenly emerges.

Honestly I have no idea where Sabathia signs. All signs are pointing that it’ll be a large media market, either New York or California. The Yankees got the party started with their 140MM offer. Granted I know that the Indians cannot afford Sabathia, however they aren’t a bad team on paper. They finished strong in 2008, actually at .500. They have a great rotation, and a solid offense that was plagued with injuries. Sabathia would make this team a contender once again, and sadly enough I could see a move this strange happening…

If Scott Boras could pull this off…

Let’s get to the chase. Jason Varitek had a bad year in 2008. It’s not the year that you’d want to have in your “walk year.” Still Scott Boras is doing his best to pitch his client a deal which surpasses the 52MM that Jorge Posada got last year. There is so much catching available this Winter (ask Jon Daniels and the Rangers), and I don’t see Varitek getting this much money. Still it would be funny if it happened.

Some other links I saw today:

• The Brewers signed R.J. Swindle. It’s a move I like, and I know a few Phillies fans (being on the East coast) who think he was underrated by fans.
• I’m getting impatient with the Nick Markakis extension talks too. Give him 70MM over the next six years (like Hanley) and be done with it.
• Congrats go to Craig Calcaterra, whose ShysterBall moves to The Hardball Times on Monday. Congrats man.
• Joe Posnanski reveals his AL MVP ballot… another individual making the (wise) case for Joe Mauer. I’m personally wondering when the next catcher will ever get a MVP award. It’s clearly the most important position on the diamond, in case anyone forgot…
• The two new Pirates (not Somali Pirates, ugh) Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel learned their pitching from… Cliff Lee. You would have never guessed that.

Interesting news item from yesterday: Dodgers’ ace Chad Billingsley slipped on ice at his home, broke a bone in his leg and had surgery the same day to fix the infraction. He should be fine for Spring Training (some people aren’t certain), however considering the fact that I live about an hour from where Billingsley resides, I can vouch for him. The Northeast is going through a cold period right now. We had ice on Friday last week, and there were traffic wrecks a plenty, since people seemingly forget how to drive in inclement conditions after months of warm Summer weather. On an aside, this is usually the time when Al Gore gives his “global warming” localized lectures…

“Ice to see you.” Billingsley was 16-10, 3.14 last year with 201 Ks for the Dodgers. (Ann Heisenfelt/AP)

This injury only addresses the weaknesses that the Dodgers have currently in their rotation now. If the season was to open today, Billingsley would be their Opening Day starter. Hiroki Kuroda gets the #2 slot, and 20-year old phenom Clayton Kershaw is the #3 starter. After that, there aren’t other options aside from dipping down to their farm. Esteban Loaiza left to the White Sox in mid-season, Brad Penny and Derek Lowe are soon to be gone as well. Greg Maddux is to retire. Yes I understand that Ned Colletti has a large issue to take care of with this, however I hope that he has a “Plan B” ready just in case C.C. Sabathia doesn’t sign with the team.

Update: I’ve gotten an email, stating that he’s “only 19 years old", in given the team’s current options at third, I honestly see him starting at the hot corner as soon as the White Sox breaks camp in April.

When White Sox GM Ken Williams is in the news, it’s usually for something stupid that he did recently. The main reason why he’s being vilified in the news? Simple. He dealt a unique hitter who gets on base in Nick Swisher for pennies on the dime (the ten cent piece of course being Gio Gonzalez, now in Oakland.) Any ways that’s done, in the books, and of course he’ll now make some quiet moves which do not garner to draw any media attention. The main idea that’s going under the rug is the team’s signing of Cuban third-base prospect Dayan Viciedo for a major league deal for four years worth 11MM.

The Cuban “Babe Ruth” averaged 36 HR over the last four seasons. Yikes. (daylife.com)

According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Vicideo is the player that Williams targeted for the offseason. He’s a tremendous third base talent who will most likely be given the third base job on Opening Day. I know that’s a bold claim to say, however Alexi Ramirez made the Opening Day roster when he was expected to be in the minors after he signed his four year deal last winter. And of course all Ramirez did was finish second in Rookie of the Year voting to some guy named Evan Longoria, slugging 21 home runs in the process.

When Williams inked Ramirez to his four year, 4.75MM contract, I honestly expected him to be in the minors for a year. However he had a stellar spring, and had me change my mind, where my expectations for him suddenly rose. Ramirez hit 28 HR the year before in Cuba, and those translated well in the American League in 2008.

So where should we project Viciedo? Well let’s start here. He’ll be the team’s opening day third baseman. Joe Crede is leaving as a free agent, and Josh Fields struck out his way into Ozzie Guillen’s dog house. I’ve personally learned to never underestimate Cuban talent, especially when Baltimore and the Cuban national team played many years ago. Viciedo is incredible talent, and many people are lauding Williams for this move. So in summary, Williams stole Carlos Quinten from the Diamondbacks (an oft-injured fourth outfielder so they thought), grabbed the “Cuban Missile” in Ramirez, and now padded his resume with Viciedo. 11MM is a bargain over four years, and I’m projecting a .305/31/105 season from him at the least. I’m not joking or going out on any limbs here. People won’t know this guy in April, yet in July will be talking about him all the time. And in the end, I’ll be right with this projection, just take my word on this one. David Price and Matt Wieters suddenly have some competition for the Rookie of the Year in 2009…

Not to dredge up the MVP voting any further, however I think that I found the lone, solitary (BWAA) writer who cast a first place vote for Francisco Rodriguez:

If this is true, his credibility just went down a great deal.

According to Wikipedia, he’s a member of BWAA (actually, as someone emailed me, it should be BBWAA, since the prior acronym is reserved for boxing. Personally I lost all respect for boxing after the “Pay Per Chew” event happened. Any ways BBWAA and BWAA are interchangeable in my eyes.) In either case, getting back to the point, I’m not sure whether Heyman voted on the MVP. However he made his threats about how K-Rod should have gotten the award (I know, he’s a soon-to-be-heavily-overpaid closer.) Any ways we’re not sure, however I want to meet this writer who thinks that K-Rod was the Most Valuable Player in the American League. Still I read this interesting piece from a Washington BWAA writer who cast his tenth place vote for Ryan Howard. That made me feel better.
…
I saw a story today in the Baltimore Sun today about how the Orioles have free agent shortstop Ceasr Izturis tops on their wish list for the position. Keep in mind that there are plenty of alluring free agents out there to begin with, such as Rafeal Furcal, Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria. Bobby Crosby, Khalil Greene and J.J. Hardy can also be had for the right price if a trade was to be made.

In regards to the original point of the post, I wanted to point out the type of shortstop that Andy MacPhail targets. He values one thing from this position: defense. Any bat that the hitter can provide is seen as a “bonus” to him. That’s always been his philosophy (Minnesota fans remember a .245 glove man by the name of Greg Gagne), and he had the same approach for this season. The shortstop is the #9 hitter to him, and the power in the lineup rests in the corner positions (here’s to Brandon Snyder and Billy Rowell’s development.)

MacPhail tried Luis Hernandez as the Opening Day shortstop (they grabbed him after being in the Atlanta organization all his career), then after his defense deteriorated, he also tried Brandon Fahey and Freddie Bynum. A late trade for Juan Castro brought in the last shortstop that Baltimore attempted to use last year. All in all, these four hitters combined for no power and a sub .600 OPS. With no minor league options available, Izturis looks like he’d be a great fit.

Personally I wouldn’t mind Renteria and Cabrera, and I even speculated that Baltimore would be a good spot for those two, however they were later classified as Type A free agents, and Baltimore would lose their second round draft pick next year (arbitration is all but certain to be offered.) Furcal is more desirable being a Type B, however Baltimore has some competition for him from Oakland, Los Angeles, San Francisco, et al. He’ll require a four year, 40MM deal to say the least.

I’m not sure what kind of offers Izturis will get. He made 2.85MM with the Cardinals, and hit .263 while playing great defense. The .628 OPS leaves reason for fear, but if Baltimore could grab him on a one or two year deal for 1.8MM a year, I’d be happy. The team still needs to build some middle infield depth however in the farm.

The Greene for Olson Swap

The same article mentions that Greene was offered to Baltimore, for soft-tosser Garrett Olson. Baltimore correctly passed. Olson would welcome a move out of the AL East, and the cavernous Petco would be friendly to him. Greene in Baltimore however doesn’t impress me. I know he’s an East Coast resident, and he does have some power (27 HR a year ago) and plays solid defense, however he doesn’t get on base. In 2007, the year he won the team MVP, he hit 27 homers, drove in 97, but only hit .254. What’s worse is that he only drew 32 walks that year, getting on base to a .291 tune. His 2008 season was much worse (.260 OBP.)

He’s due to make 6.5MM this year in the last year of a two year contract he signed a year ago (essentially buying out his arbitration years.) He’ll be a free agent after next season, and I have no idea what interest he’ll draw. Still handing over Olson (when the rotation is already weak) would be a bad move.

Over the past few days, I’ve never seen so much sludge against the BWAA on the MVP vote, not because of their first place winners, but because of other players who got votes in the later selections. I’ve seen some great essays, and then I saw this piece from Joe Posnanski this morning. He attempts to solve what goes through the minds of a BWAA writer who unfortunately has to choose (to many single, living-in-parents’-home bloggers’ disgust) which players will receive MVP votes. Here’s the crux of the argument:

…the only logical and common-sense way to measure the 2008 baseball achievements of Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols, is to look at:

1. The number of RBIs they drove in.
2. The finish of their teams.

Anyone who read this blog last night saw the following from yours truly:

If there are two things that determine the outcome of the MVP race (at least according to old-school BWAA writers), they are:

1. Whether a player’s team makes the postseason
2. RBI totals

When I saw this, my jaw was agape. I couldn’t believe it. I jumped out of my cubicle this morning and screamed! Actually I didn’t do that, however I know at times I think I’m clairvoyant, but I never thought my mind was on the same page as Posnanski’s, especially when it comes to something as *serious* as the MVP voting. Posnanski then addressed the same points I made last night, that is involving VORP into the voting, stating that Pujols’ season was many, many, …, many times better than Howard’s was, mentioning that Howard had many more opportunities with runners on base before him, and essentially how most people who work in the BWAA and were given the chance to vote should be unemployed right now. Actually I don’t think he said the last point, however anyone who cast a first place vote Howard should be working for McDonalds right now, and anyone who cast a first place vote for Francisco Rodriguez should be, um, there was only one writer.

It’s not like I call Posnanski each night and talk smack with him, but his essay really inflated my ego this morning. The only thing the two of us disagree on is the ordering of the two ‘li’ children in the above ordered list (it’s HTML talk.) Posnanski weights RBI higher, I weight postseason presence. So let’s look at what happened the first two days this week. The AL? In the end it came down to two players, Dustin Pedroia and Joe Mauer. Mauer had more RBI (84) last year than Pedroia did (83), however Dustin was playing in the ALCS last October, Joe was not (check point me.) In other words, this allowed Pedroia to get the most first-place votes, and Mauer to get the most second-place votes (though he finished fourth overall.) And anyone who cast the first place vote for Howard (there were twelve of you!, shame shame shame)… Pujols’ statistical season last year was just as monstrous as Alex Rodriguez’s was in 2007, and he overwhelmingly won the MVP that season.

…

Any ways I could use that little Posnanski endorsement (if you want to call it that) to plug a main reason why you should read this blog. Most of the stuff I write turns out true many months later (just search for my “10 hitters to watch")… I also did some improvement on this thing, and paid respect for the great season that Tampa Bay had, by adding Don Zimmer to my montage logo. And I also fought the enormous urge to put ads on this site… so there are your reasons. This is one person writing the content, and unlike Sandra Bernhard’s material, the content is original (and albeit humorous.)

You Won’t Have Joe Morgan To Kick Around

The main reason why I’m keeping this site “ad free” is because one of the most humorous sports blogs FJM did the same thing themselves. And In case anyone noticed, Ken Tremendous and the gang hung up their keyboards at FJM (I think they have lives, wives and girlfriends, something I kinda lack.) Actually I saw this last week, and within 30 minutes, there was a post up on Shyster Ball explaining this. I give Mr. Calcaterra some credit, since he did his best FJM impression the other day. I’m planning on doing the same thing soon as well, I just need an idiotic story to trash. I’ll start scouring philly.com or boston.com more, or if something about David Eckstein comes my way… anyways now onto some baseball related stuff.

The Moose is Loose

Breaking: Mike Mussina officially hung it up, after (finally) notching his first 20 win season last year. My prediction to this, he’ll be like Brett Favre and will want to come back. The team that will take him? Baltimore. I think Peter Angelos is offering 140MM over six years… Any ways the last playoff game Baltimore had recently (ten years ago) was pitched by him, and I was there. There were a lot of people pissed off at Armando Benitez that night (I remember the expletives being shouted walking down from the upper deck.)

Sickels on the East Coast

John Sickels has his Top 20 prospects up now for the Orioles up by the way, and as a fan I couldn’t be any happier. He gave an “A” to Matt Wieters, and “B+"es to their upcoming “big three", that is Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Say hello to your “mutant cross between Mauer and Piazza” (Baltimore Sun Photo by Karl Merton Ferron)

It’s not a bad system, at least in comparison to the thinned-out Diamondbacks system (should be replenished after the compensation comes during next year’s draft) and the Washington Nationals, whom he is currently going over now. It’s not pretty, or as he so eloquently put it:

Yuck!

What’s Going on in Kansas City

There was another big trade that went down today in Kansas City. Even though I’ll wait for Posnanski to write about it this weekend in his Kansas City Star piece, I’ll briefly touch it here. The Royals came into the off-season with a surplus of middle relievers. They dealt Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs a few weeks ago, and now just dealt Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp.

The team isn’t hurting for middle relief, since they still have Ron Mahay, Horacio Ramirez, … and they have some dude named “Joakim.” Still the team now has a glut of outfielders, and I think now’s the time for them to deal Mark Teahen. I like David DeJesus though, but if he can fetch a Felix Pie, you got to pull the trigger. Still, looking at right now, Crisp suddenly gets everyday at bats, 625 plate appearances next year (as Roto Professor put it, Crisp screams “must start".) Last year he was hurt, and he was platooning, however he was still solid. I doubt he’ll slug .460 again like he did in 2006, but he moves fast and plays stellar center field. At 5.5MM he’s a steal, and most importantly, Mr. Crisp gets on base. He, much to Royals’ fans like, clipped at a very solid .340 OBP. Suddenly Mike Jacobs and Alex Gordon are smiling…

The Red Sox had to move him, and they got good return in Ramirez. They can do cheaper for a fourth outfielder, whom they’ll need for Jacoby Ellsbury/J.D. Drew injury insurance. Still looking at Crisp, you can’t all but not love this move. And if the Royals give him his 650 plate appearances this year and next (they’ll need to exercise a 8MM option), they’ll (likely) have a Type A free agent in 2010, who could net a pair of draft picks in the 2011 draft. Contrary to what many people are saying, I like what the Royals are doing (wait until Gordon breaks out…) And dare I say this, but I don’t think 85 wins are out of the question. After all the exact same thing worked out well for Tampa Bay last year.

The Cubs have had a busy off-season so far. They have been speculated to be in the hunt for Randy Johnson (a good move if they pull that off), rumored to be trading for Mark Teahen (muy malo if they give up Felix Pie), and have been all over the place with pitching. On that note, this afternoon, they resigned one of their integral parts from the 2008 season, Ryan Dempster. He’ll get 52MM over four years.

Any ways I don’t despise this move, but it isn’t that bad. Simply put, the Cubs paid market price for Dempster. He won 17 games last year and had a very nice 2.96 ERA. Still there is growing disgust over this move. Roto Professor sums up the reactions best:

Maybe I’ll be proved wrong, but it’s an awful lot of money to be throwing at someone off one good season.

I agree with the sentiment. People thought he wasn’t even going to be in the rotation in 2008, however he was the #5 starter out of the gate. He pitched like an ace the rest of the way. Granted many people refer to this season as a “fluke", however he just didn’t get many opportunities. Dempster was always a solid starter with the Marlins, and I look at this season as him getting himself “back on track". He may win 60 games over the next four years, he may save 100 games. We don’t know…

Still consider this. The Cubs shelled out 10MM a year for Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly. These moves clearly worked. They shelled out 12MM a year for Kosuke Fukodome, and that didn’t work. I know it’s an irrelevant analogy, but when the Cubs pay for pitching, it usually works out well for them. And it should be noted that Dempster, only being 32 right now, will be pitching in his prime throughout the duration of the contract.

Update: I wasn’t the only one who thought that Mauer should have won the award… ESPN’s Rob Neyer also agrees. Still Pedroia is NOT a bad choice by any means.

As of now, the MVPs were officially determined by the BWAA. Dustin Pedroia took the American League honors, while Cardinals’ first baseman Albert Pujols took home the National League award. Personally, the BWAA got these correct, as they did with the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards. It’s what happened further down the list that makes me scratch my head.

Honestly I’ve been back and forth on the AL choice for some time now. I’ve thought about each of the top four players winning the award, especially Joe Mauer in particular. Pedroia is a fine choice, and had an all-around solid 2008 campaign. Still given the fact that the race was as up-in-the-air as it was, I expected this to be much closer. Mauer got the most second-place votes, but Pedroia won the award handsomely. If anything, the race should’t have been as close in the National League as it was between Pujols and Ryan Howard.

The AL MVP hit .326/17/83 with 20 steals in 2008 (image Fox Sports.)

If there are two things that determine the outcome of the MVP race (at least according to old-school BWAA writers), they are:

1. Whether a player’s team makes the postseason
2. RBI totals

Basing the MVP award on the first choice is entirely unfair, since that immediately disqualifies 73% of players who go back home in October. However these two points were clearly relevant in this year’s voting, and it was more obvious in the National League. Going by pure statistics, Pujols destroyed Howard in 2008 (think “the slashes.") However since Howard was part of a much more potent offense, he had more chances to drive in runs than Pujols. And Howard’s team also made the postseason as well by the way.

The NL MVP hit .357/37/116 with an OPS of 1.114 (AP Photo/Tom Gannam, file)

I know Pujols made comments back in 2006 about how he should have won the award instead of Howard since his team made the playoffs (ironic how we have the exact opposite case here), but Howard was clearly MVP-worthy in 2006. There are a handful of players in the National League who were more valuable than him in 2008 however.

Some of the writers who cast ballots the past few days have had me scratching my head. Some things I don’t get:

• Why did Cliff Lee win the Cy Young yet finish behind Francisco Rodriguez in the MVP voting?
• Which writer actually gave K-Rod a first place vote in the first place? (Seriously???)
• Why did Carlos Delgado finish in the top ten in NL voting, yet a more-valuable Carlos to the Mets (that is Mr. Beltran) only receives ten points?
• How come Hanley Ramirez failed to crack the top ten?
• How come Manny Ramirez and C.C. Sabathia (finishing fourth and sixth respectively) got as much consideration as they did when they were mostly mediocre for their previous clubs before being traded?
• Why was Edison Volquez considered for the Rookie of the Year voting, when he clearly wasn’t a rookie? (Actually BP hit this hard over the weekend.)

I know new age statistics aren’t popular with the classical BWAA voters who casually follow the sport, however one statistic that’s clearly applicable is VORP, or “Value over Replacement Player". In other words, this is the “V part” of MVP.

With that said, my logic for calculating the MVP is relatively simple. Pick a player, then remove him from the team. The player whose team regressed the most after this happened is the MVP. It’s not too hard (though you could accomplish this by using the following algorithm for calculating VORP.) I mean, if you removed Pujols from the middle of the order in St. Louis, would the team have even been in contention in September, especially given their injury-riddled pitching staff? Probably not. What happens if you remove Howard? Dare I say this, but given Howard’s lousy postseason play, the Phillies would have still won the World Series.

Overplaying your Hands

I know I didn’t mention this, however I like the prospect (Jose Ceda) the Marlins received from the Cubs in the Kevin Gregg trade (he was the guy that I wish Baltimore would have got if they had traded Brian Roberts last Spring.) Any ways back off the tangent, the Giants made the first quick strike into the free agent market, grabbing lefty Jeremy Affeldt at two years, 8MM. Like everyone else, I like this move. Affeldt is a good pitcher who will flourish in (pitcher-friendly) San Francisco.

Terms of the contract weren’t anything different than what Ron Mahay got from the Royals last winter (he’s also a good lefty), however the Giants could cash in if Affeldt either gets a chance to start or close for the team. The likelihood of this happening is good too, with Tim Lincecum being a strong canidate for a breakdown in 2009, and their All-Star closer (Brian Wilson) being anything but automatic.

If Affeldt starts for the Giants, the team could be in the same boat as the Cubs are with Ryan Dempster (who apparently is on the verge of signing a four year, 50MM deal. Update, it happened, I’ll discuss late.) As many remember, Affeldt broke into last winter demanding something like 7MM over four years. He didn’t get the deal, and settled on the one-year deal he got from the Reds. It paid out well for both parties, since Affeldt proved that he was a serviceable pitcher, and the Reds get compensation in the 2009 draft since Elias classified him as a Type B free agent.

Usually when a player turns down a lucrative contract, you have to think a little. Josh Fogg turned down a big deal from the Rockies last Winter, only to find himself looking for work in the Spring. Same thing goes with Kyle Lohse, who turned down 21MM from the Phillies and found himself in the same position (he did get paid a year later however.)

Affeldt didn’t officially receive a big offer last Winter, however I wonder why he didn’t test the market a little better this year. Still, I’m sure he thought about Fogg and Lohse when he made his decision yesterday. Now what will the other free agent starters do with the Yankees’ offers, that is Sabathia (140MM) and now A.J. Burnett (80MM?)

It seems that every free agent predictor I recently saw had free agent C.C. Sabathia receiving a contract of total compensation of 140MM. Personally I pinned him at 143MM back in August, but that was over seven years. The official offer from the Yankees has it at 140MM over six.

Sabathia and the Yankees makes sense, especially considering how they lost out on Johan Sanatana last winter. This is the move that everyone saw from day one, and Sabathia is about to become a Yankee. I highly doubt that his side will submit a counter-offer to the Yankees, especially since 140MM is tough to top. Besides, the last thing Sabathia would want is for the Yankees to withdraw the offer (hence the push from the MLB Players Union on him to sign this deal.)

This signing should go down this week sometime. Honestly I like it. I expected it. Sabathia is good and the Yankees will have him in his prime. LeBron James is estatic with this move, and Doug Melvin is depressed. I understand that Sabathia’s camp referred to the Brewers’ offer (supposed 5 years, 100MM) as “window dressings", but at least he made the effort to keep him in uniform. There’s not much left for him to do now except for to take the draft picks and move on.

So here we are. The Yankees are moving swift and quickly to completely make over this team. Sabathia is a good start, and I loved the Nick Swisher trade (what a steal.) As to who will be the next starter that the Yankees haul in, my guess is Derek Lowe. It’s fitting, since Lowe is the top target that the Red Sox want this winter as well.

He considered it last year, however he made the decision to come back and save 28 games for the Brewers in 2008. As of now, Salomon Torres has finally decided to hang it up and retire after a career year.

Torres will finish his career with 57 saves (Getty Images.)

The Brewers, like many teams, need a closer. Huston Street and J.J. Putz are apparently available via trade, and of course the free agency market features Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes. I’d prefer Fuentes, however I personally feel that K-Rod will end up in Milwaukee. I didn’t hear any rumors about this, it’s just my gut feeling. Besides, with the money off the roster now with Torres, Brian Shouse, Guillermo Mota and Eric Gagne leaving, they could handily take on a record contract for a closer. It’s not that I’d recommend that move by the way.

In regards to Shouse and Torres, it’s interesting to note that both of them played as far back as 1993, both of them had an extended hiatus after 1997 (on average of six years), and both of them were incredibly effective relievers for the Brewers last year. I actually remember Torres back when he was pitching on the near-playoff team that the Giants had in 1993 as a starter (they won 103 games.)

The Post-season Awards

Some of the individual awards are starting to come out this week as well. On Monday we saw the rookies, that is Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria and Chicago’s Geovany Soto, take home the Rookie of the Year trophies. Longoria won the award easily, though I think other rookies should have been placed higher over Jacoby Ellsbury. Soto was the clear choice since he played the ever-valuable catching position, however Joey Votto’s stats can’t be ignored.

Tim Lincecum took home the NL Cy Young today as well, though again you could easily make the case that Johan Santana could have got the award as well. Lincecum won two more games than Santana did, however that could have been attributed to the fact that his bullpen let him down more than Santana’s did. Then again, Lincecum’s offense let him down more than Santana’s did, so check mate. Still, I don’t quite understand how Brandon Webb got second place… wins at times tell very little about a pitcher’s season.

We get the manager awards tomorrow (yawn), then on Thursday get to see who will be crowned the AL Cy Young. Again this award should be Cliff Lee’s unanimously.

I just got back from dinner, and I know what happened today with Matt Holliday and the A’s. However I’m seeing what’s going on now between the Nationals and Marlins. I know that Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham are arbitration-eligible, however they could have clearly gotten more back in this deal from the Nationals.

The Marlins need catching. Granted they did acquire a fine player in Emilio Bonifacio, however they should have inquired about Jesus Flores. And what ever happened to all this talk about the Marlins being able to push Olsen into a deal to acquire one of the four catchers buried on the Rangers’ 40 man roster?

If I was a Marlins fan, I’d be disappointed, especially Hanley Ramirez. Han-Ram signed that below-market 70MM contract with expectations that he’d be playing for a winner. Granted the Marlins were good last year when everyone expected them to be good for dead, and they might be just as good as they were last year in 2009, however they clearly didn’t receive impressive hauls with their two recent trades (I’m referring to the Mike Jacobs deal in addition.)

The Nationals are an intriguing option here. They got the first pick in the Amateur Draft next year, and might be willing to pay Steven Strasburg the money he’ll command as next year’s #1 pick. I mean if they’re winning to pony-up the 200MM that it’ll take to bring Mark Teixeira to the East Coast, then I could see this happening. Now only if they had signed Aaron Crow this past winter…

Again I might be wrong with these trades. Looking at the other end in Oakland, I don’t understand what Billy Beane did. Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith were two integral parts of the trade that brought Dan Haren to Arizona. “CarGo” was the centerpiece, Smith (along with Dana Eveland) was a rotation mainstay, who was incredibly solid in the first half of 2008. Smith (7-16 in 2008) wasn’t the pitcher that Beane was after in that trade however, it was Brett Anderson. And maybe the coaching staff saw something in Gonzalez that they didn’t like. Beane does have depth at this position (especially given the amount of second baseman that they can convert), however five years of Gonzalez for one of Holliday doesn’t make sense to me.

If I had to guess, about half of Beane trades make me scratch my head. However, in the end he usually surprises everyone by getting the upper-hand in his deals. Still I don’t quite see how he’ll get out of this one, especially if there was pressure from ownership to build a winning team in Oakland. Beane might flip Holliday in July, and Dan O’Dowd and Co. might flip Huston Street once he’s in town (they have no need for another closer with Manny Corpas and Taylor Buchholz in house.) Still on an early analysis, the hauls that I’m seeing in these trades don’t stack up with the hauls that were received in the blockbusters last winter. Then again I might be wrong in the long haul, and Beane is notorious at getting even three years later.

The A’s won’t receive any salary relief from the Rockies for Holliday’s 13.5MM owed in 2009 (CNN SI.)

Any one in Kansas City who grabbed the Kansas City Star this morning was able to read Joe Posnanski’s latest piece. Going by my count, I think it’s his tenth post discussing Mike Jacobs. Any ways this is my fifth I think, and for a minor trade like this five is way too much.

He brought up the fact that reporters were asking Dayton Moore about why they made this trade. Any ways let’s quickly surmise the problem here: there’s a supposition going around that Moore is trying to dismantle the deep talent that he has in his system and is trying to bring in players who can’t on base. They got Jacobs, they were after Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Franklin Gutierrez. Posnanski even showed what the lineup would look like for them if they brought in those players. His projection has the team getting on base roughly 30% of the time.

The Jacobs trade from two weeks ago was not a blockbuster. The Marlins were simply trying to move him, and were willing to take “whatever they could get.” In all fairness, I can’t remember a trade where the team that dealt its slugging first baseman for a middle reliever was seen as the better team. If the Braves were to have traded Mark Teixeira for Justin Speier last July (a similar trade), there would be an uproar in Atlanta (Frank Wren would have been pushed out like he was in Baltimore.) With that statement, I’m honestly surprised that the Marlins didn’t get more for Jacobs.

I’ve been saying this since the trade broke, that if Jacobs got on base more consistently he’d be deadly. If he wound up with an OBP of .350 in 2009, the Royals would have clearly ripped off the Marlins. Moore feels the same way, that is coaches can teach the hitter to be more patient at the plate. They clearly have a great coaching staff, given how much major-league ready talent they have. Posnasnki disagrees; he feels that getting on base is a “talent":

One of the great traps in sports is believing you are smart enough to change somebody. Coaches can help smooth out rough edges, maybe. But getting on base is a TALENT, and you can only improve that so much. It’s fool’s gold to believe anything else.

In either case, this trade is NOT a bad thing for the Royals, as I’ve been saying all along. Having Jacobs on the roster allows for the Royals go give more competition to its younger players. You have to make Kila Ka’aihue earn the first base job, not just hand it to him during the winter. Ask the Yankees how this worked last winter with Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy…

So with that all said, I’m projecting the following from Jacobs in 2009: .265/.335/.515, 30 HR, 115 RBI. I think the Royals in 2009 are going to be this year’s Rays. And when the team plays well, the rest of the players play well also, and it’s reflected in their statistics. Seriously, the Royals could win 87 games in 2009. And given the fact that they play in a weak division, that could take them into October next year.

Baseball America has its Top 10 prospects up for the Orioles up now. I know it’s a subscriber-only link (for now, until it gets formally published next year), however they project the team’s rotation for 2012:

1. Chris Tillman
2. Brian Matusz
3. Jake Arrieta
4. Jeremy Guthrie
5. Radhames Liz

That’s an intriguing top three (especially how highly they regard Tillman, though he’ll be further along by 2012 than Matusz or Arrieta will.) One name left off the list however is Danys Baez. He signed that repulsive three year, 19MM deal back in 2006, and will make 5.5MM in 2009 in his walk year. He got the money he got simply because of the fact that he padded his resume with some “closer experience.”

A couple of days ago, Baez informed team officials that he would like to start again. Since we’re not in 2012 yet, and the team’s rotation is currently a mess, it never hurts to listen to this from an open ear. The last time he started was in 2002, when he made all 26 of his career starts. The results that season weren’t anything spectacular, he was essentially an “innings eater", and Baltimore needs two or three of these now.

My opinion: give him a chance to start, I’m not opposed to it. He’ll eat innings, and could preserve a potentially solid bullpen. Besides, 5.5MM would be better spent on a mid-tier starter than it would be on a middle reliever.

Baez was 10-11, 4.41 in that 2002 season (mlb.com.)

More “no-brainer” option decisions

I’ll summarize these up rather quickly.

• The Rangers picked up the 6.2MM 2009 option on Hank Blalock. His second half was strong and he might make a good trade chip come next July. This decision was easy.
• The Yankees declined Damaso Marte’s 2009 6MM option. Too much money for a middle reliever, however he’s in high demand this winter.
• Brian Giles (finally) had his 9MM 2009 option picked up by the Padres. Again, the front office shouldn’t have even had to think about this choice, he was easily one of the best corner outfielders last season.

One free agent signing occurred yesterday, with the Astros agreeing to a 3.5MM contract with reliever LaTroy Hawkins. He was lights-out for the team after coming over from the Yankees mid-season last year (2-0 with an 0.43 ERA in 24 appearances), and this isn’t that bad of a contract.

Warning: the following post is political, and is mildly baseball-related. If this does not interest you, I recommend You Porn.

I was about to write about this yesterday, but got too drunk, and this post was getting heavily partisan (Rush Limbaugh would have been proud.) Any ways tonight I’m completely sober, and can coherently express this a little better. Long story short, I voted for John McCain. Honestly I didn’t like either of the two (main) candidates, however I thought my state was much closer than it was, so I made the choice that I did (note that the networks called Pennsylvania for Obama with 1% of the precincts reporting.)

Obama has been in the news heavily of late, and especially in the baseball world as well. Obama is still undecided as to where he’ll throw the MLB first pitch next year, and he’ll probably be doing it in Chicago for the White Sox (Clinton and Bush did it in Camden Yards for so many years…) Obama is also planning on making baseball relevant in the Olympics again, something I like (even if it involves shutting down the season for two weeks.) I like the fact that Obama is a sports fan (and actually wants a College Football Playoff system established.) However the other issues he believes in made me cast against him. The main reason why: taxes.

Joe the Plumber’s new decision involves choosing between Cliff Lee and Aaron Harrang for his fantasy rotation (WP.)

The one story that was on the front pages all across the country was the one of how agents are worried about the new tax hikes that Obama wants to put in place in January. The one area that everyone is speculating is that he’ll raise the top bracket from the 35% (where Bush lowered it) to 39.6% (where it was under Bill Clinton.) Granted this might seem like pocket change to someone like Manny Ramirez, who just received a contract offer with the second-highest average salary ever, however as the article states this tax will impact someone even harder: small businesses. Now what businesses are considered small businesses?

Enter Scott Boras, the most notorious sports agent known to man. He wrote the book on Oliver Perez (literally), and does whatever he can to help his clients receive the best offer both in terms of compensation and playing environment. Boras, a former player, is very wealthy. He also owns a small business, the Scott Boras Corporation, a “small business” which employs roughly around 100 employees of various skills and talents. It’s clear that his “small business” earns more than 250,000 per year. Case in point, he’ll get 10% off Alex Rodriguez’s record 275MM contract alone. While Boras’ employees might be eligible for an Obama “tax cut” (whatever that exactly means), their boss himself will be hit hard.

Granted Mark Teixeira is a free agent, and he could net a contract of around 20MM this year, so the tax hike for him won’t be an issue. However look at the college players available in next year’s Amateur Draft. Most of these kids come from middle class families, however when they receive their 4MM or so first-round pick signing bonus… You get the picture; another area the Obama tax hike will hit.

Peter Schmuck brought up the point about this, and discussed Rafeal Palmeiro, who left the Orioles and signed for the Rangers. The Orioles offered more money, however Texas has lower taxes, and the net effect of moving there would be the same as staying in Baltimore. I’m not saying that players are motivated by money, but taxation does play a role in free agency and where players decide to go. If Teixeira stays and lives in California to continue to play for the Angels, he’ll have a 10% state income tax for starters (and governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is threatening to raise taxes again.) Teixeira might opt to move east (and take a smaller contract) to some place like Baltimore, where the cost of living is much cheaper than on the West Coast.

Any ways, to read the news, I understand that Obama’s taxes won’t affect the players that much (the best quote I saw was “they’ll get by.") However what the news won’t tell is that these taxes will hit two groups: small businesses representing the agents, and the players drafted next June. As to what will happen, we don’t know. However if anything, we can expect total compensation for contracts to rise going forward. Naturally this is the easiest way to offset a tax increase, outside of passing the costs onto the consumer.

I think I’m going to start a new section here, predicting the possible sleepers for the 2009 season. One such sleeper pick that I love is the Giants’ new first baseman Josh Phelps. Phelps had an amazing year for the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate, .291/31/97. He has a career OPS of .815, and most importantly gets on base. The Cardinals unfortunately couldn’t use him (due to some guy named “Pujols” who just hit .357), and as I pointed out on a previous post, Phelps reminds me of Ryan Ludwick, who came out of nowhere to have incredible success for the Cardinals in 2008.

I give credit to Brian Sabean; this is the kind of moves that the Giants need to make. They don’t need to dole out long-term burdensome contracts to players (e.g. Barry Zito, though I like the Aaron Rowand deal.) The Giants desperately needed offense in 2008 (Tim Linececum was in three 1-0 games in 2008), and Phelps will clearly deliver it. They were admittedly horrible at the corners in 2008, and Phelps can expect 550 at bats in 2009. Phelps “figured it out” in the minors in 2008, and I see him getting his career back on track. Phelps is a very quiet sleeper for the 2009 season, an excellent fantasy pickup, and I can see the following from him in 2009: .275/.375/.470, with 25 HR and 90 RBI.

Some other links that support this claim:

• BTBS
• RotoAuthority
• MLBTR
• SB

Some other random links for today:

• Brad Penny’s 2009 option will most-likely be declined by the Dodgers, and A.J. Burnett is now a free agent. I see Burnett getting 65MM over four years now (I originally bet 53MM back in August, before the great fall that Burnett had this past year.)
• We have a new President apparently.

Any ways, we’re five days past the first trade of the MLB offseason, and people are still talking about it. For the most part, people are thinking that the Marlins got the upper hand in the deal which saw them receive reliever Leo Nunez from the Royals for slugging first baseman Mike Jacobs. The most ridiculous thing I’ve seen recently: Mike Jacobs the Musical.

I’ve said it many times recently here: I like the Jacobs trade. The Royals gave up a replaceable reliever and received much needed power, especially considering that their lineup was second to last in the AL in home runs. I know that Jacobs has his holes (OBP), however with a little tinkering he can become a great trade chip for the Royals. Nunez isn’t a bad reliever, however he lacks the upside needed to push himself into the closer’s role (a poor K/BB ratio being one.)

I saw Posnanski’s blog this morning on the trade, and he doesn’t like it. However he echoed the same points, that is the Royals chose SLG over OBP. However in other words, he echoed what I’ve been saying along about the trade:

Mike Jacobs might hit 30 home runs for the Royals this year. He might get his on-base percentage up into the respectable range. He might have his best year. He might. He might. And it isn’t like the Royals traded away a star to get him. … But, more I think about it, I don’t see how he fits into any sort of plan. At all. And the more I think about it, the more I feel certain that this is precisely the kind of move you do not make.

On the other side of the coin, BA was optimistic about the trade:

Put it all together and I just don’t see where there is all that much risk in this trade from the standpoint of Moore and the Royals.

Precisely. The Royals rolled the dice by acquiring Jacobs, and the only chips they had on the table was Nunez. Jacobs has faults, however he’s still young and has upside. And as the previous authors said, he was hampered by unlucky BABIP (which precipitated his .247 average in 2008.) He could blossom into a .270/38/115 hitter for the Royals. Alex Gordon and others in the lineup could benefit from him as well (just like every other hitter in the Marlins’ lineup did last season.) And if this happens, I’ll be here, same time same place, to criticize all the haters of this trade.

Some other things from today:

Brewers pick up Mike Cameron’s 2009 10MM Option

This was an easy move on behalf of Doug Melvin and the club. Cameron only hit .243 in 2008, however he launched 25 HR and stole 17 bases. He also only made one error as well, fielding to a stellar tune of .997. For above-average position power and defense for a center fielder, 10MM is a bargain. And it seemed that the Brewers played better with him in the lineup, especially defensively (Ryan Braun was quietly a good defender in left field.)

Link Roundup

• The MLBTR top 50 free agents are up for everyone to see. Note that I did mine back in August, and I agreed with his destinations for the top two free agents: C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. One other note, we both agree on the Brewers spending big on a closer, though I see Francisco Rodriguez getting the contract, not Brian Fuentes.
• Joe Sheehan (of BP, special to CNN SI), picks five “radical moves” that would be interesting to see made this winter. Camden Chat does agree that it would be interesting to see Brian Roberts move to shop to accommodate one of the free agent second basemen this winter.
• RotoProfessor essays worth discussing: Manny Ramirez’s effect on the Dodgers lineup in 2008, and Rich Hill’s role for 2009. Both of these are good reads. Honestly I’ve given up on him, especially after he got torched for six runs on last Friday’s one inning start. Hill’s solid 2007 season (11-8, 3.92, 183K in 195.0 innings) seems like it was ages ago.
• Changes are coming to Late Innings real soon… I can’t say what. (I’ll give you a hint, it involves two thoughts: revenue and Sam Adams.)

Some random links I found today on this rather warm Saturday. Enjoy!

• According to the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are primarily going after one of two Rangers’ catchers: Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. The Marlins supposedly offered (arbitration-elgible) Scott Olsen straight up for Saltalamacchia as well. Still as the story says, “any young catcher will be very expensive to acquire, given the deficit in talent at the position.”
• The Yankees are after David DeJesus hard.
• On the other side of town, free agent pitcher Oliver Perez is supposedly after 60MM this winter. Coming off a season in which he only won 10 games and pitched to a 4.27 ERA, Scott Boras is clearly rattling his saber here.
• We mentioned earler about the Orioles and (free agent) Edgar Renteria, however apparently the Cardinals are after him and would welcome his homecoming.
• Braves’ starter Jair Jurrjens registered 31 starts last year, however no other Braves’ starter had more than 25. This is the first time in over thirty years that this happened.
• Lone Star ball goes through each team’s 2008 rotation, ranking each starter an ace, #2, etc. on down. According to the projections, the Diamondbacks had three aces in their stacked rotation, yet they failed to make the playoffs.
• Roto Professor (one again) believes that the Indians have given up on third baseman Andy Marte. It’ll be interesting to see this winter as to whether Mark Shapiro will leave him on his team’s 40 man roster. Notable players in Marte’s situation that have prospered after leaving include Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie.

Two days after the Mike Jacobs trade happened, we’re still talking about it here. Most of the feedback I’ve seen on the trade has been negative for the Royals, especially from ESPN’s Keith Law, who says that Jacobs is a non-tender candidate, something I honestly don’t see. Given the (rumored) interest that has been floating around about Jacobs, the Marlins were going to at least tender him a contract for next year. I understand that he is arbitration eligible, however 3MM for a first baseman who hits 30HR and drives in 100 is a bargain, and even the Marlins know that.

If Jacobs (as I’ve said earlier) draws about 30 more walks in 2009, his OBP would jump into the .340 range, and he’d be an even more attractive trade candidate for the Royals as they enter next Winter’s off season. In either way, I’ve made the argument that the Royals didn’t get “fleeced” with this move. Looking at the forest from the trees here, the Royals got a 35HR bat (which are rare), and all it cost them was a middle reliever.

…

I’ve seen a post yesterday on Rany on the Royals about the role Billy Butler will play for the team in 2009. He made the following statement:

Most importantly, though, trading for Jacobs makes it more likely than not that Billy Butler has already played his last game for the Royals.

I’m not sure if I’d go that far. He mentions that Dayton Moore isn’t a big fan of Butler, however he’s clearly one of the team’s best prospects to come up in the last three years. Butler is currently penciled in as the Royals’ DH for 2009. His average has always been high, and his lost power came back once he returned to the team’s lineup in July. In either case, I highly doubt that the Royals would move Butler. If there are any players they should move, they should either look at moving Mark Teahen or Jose Guillen. Teahen’s trade value is high now, and Guillen would fill any corner outfield void for many teams. Still if Moore does in fact want to move Butler, Camden Chat says the Orioles would like him.

More on the Royals

The ever interesting RotoProfessor looks at whether Royals’ starter Kyle Davies could be a sleeper in 2009. Honestly I ask this question each and every year about Davies, and I’m personally starting to lose patience with him. He might prove me wrong, I don’t know.

More on the Orioles

Granted the Orioles wouldn’t mind having Butler (as another DH), however the team has numerous holes right now: shortstop, corner infielder, starting pitcher… Roch from MASN looks at the free agents, and mentions that insiders within the Orioles are kicking the tires on free agents Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, and Edgar Renteria. I’ve discussed Renteria and the Orioles earlier, and I could see it happening, however he’s a Type B free agent. If the Tigers offer him arbitration (which will most likely happen), Baltimore will lose their second round draft pick next year.

In either news, Peter Schmuck also mentions that the Orioles are highly interested in Mark Teixeira, and there has been rumors that Peter Angelos will pay “whatever it takes” to get Tex at first in 2009. One caveat, Tex is a Type A, and the Angels are sure as ever going to offer him arbitration, especially since they coughed up Casey Kotchman to obtain him. The cost won’t be cheap, and even if the Orioles grab him, after all the teams bump up the bidding he’ll be looking at 20MM per year.

My take, I like Teixeira, however the Orioles aren’t a winning team yet. Granted Teixeira could come in for the money, however he’d be disappointed after Andy MacPhail then dealt the rest of the lineup for prospects (Ramon Hernandez, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff.) MacPhail needs to stay the course and keep building talent within. Last year was good, and he’ll need to start moving more chips to only improve the team’s overall depth.

By the way, the official Elias rankings are out now for the free agents.

After yesterday’s 4-6 tear, Giants’ catching prospect Buster Posey is “en fuego” in the AFL. He’s currently hitting .515. He was the Giants’ first round pick (#5 overall) in the Amateur Draft this year, and would have been #1 overall by the Rays, had it not been for his supposed demands of a 12MM contract.

In regards to other hot prospects in the AFL, Orioles hurler Brian Matusz (drafted #4 overall) is also dominant. Still if either of these two players make it to the majors next season, I expect it to be Posey. I doubt that Baltimore would rush Matusz to the majors, though if he makes the strong case that might change. Still for Posey to reach the majors, the Giants will need to move Bengie Molina. Molina and his 95 RBI from last year might be a good match for the Mets.

Breaking: Tatis Re-signed

The Mets just re-signed Fernando Tatis for 1.7MM in 2009. Good move, and this all but for the most part eliminates the idea of them signing free agent Raul Ibanez. Tatis hit 11 homers last year, and either projects as a full-time outfielder, or will be featured against lefties. Still he won’t hit 34 homers again, and I thought he wasn’t arbitration eligible until 2010… (Correction, Tatis was a free agent and filed today. I thought he was still under team control.)

Jayson Nix and the White Sox

The White Sox signed Jayson Nix to a major league deal for 2009. He was supposedly an option for the Rockies at second base entering last year, however remained stuck in Triple-A and only hit .303/17/51 with a .964 OPS. Like Alexi Ramirez and Carlos Quinten, this is another excellent, under-the-radar move by Kenny Williams. I’ve always been high on both the Nix brothers (him and outfielder Lance Nix.)

I’ve gotten a few emails recently about this question, and I wanted to address it for everyone to know. Edison Volquez is not a rookie. To clarify the rules:

• 130 at bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues
• 45 days on the active roster of a major league club (excluding time on the disabled list or any time after rosters are expanded on September 1)

He pitched about 70 innings in parts of three seasons for the Rangers before this, so he was clearly disqualified. If Volquez was a rookie, his name would be mentioned alongside Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, both players who are strong candidates for Rookie of the Year. He was traded for Josh Hamilton, both players made the All-Star team in 2007, and the rest everyone knows. Many people thought this trade was pointless last year, however I loved it. I even wrote the following back in December last year:

Hamilton came at a price, since Volquez was easily one of their best pitchers to make his way up through Texas’ system recently. Still the move benefits both clubs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamilton hits 25HR in a strong Rangers lineup.

Hot dog, boy was I right with this guess. Now everyone agrees that this trade was huge last season. Any ways that should settle this debate. Any more emails about this will be directed to this post. Now to get shitfaced…

Volquez went 17-6, 3.21 for the Reds in 2008 in 196.0 innings. He struck out 206 hitters. (mlb.com)

So anyways I jump on RotoWorld over lunch and saw a story about Mike Jacobs and the Royals, who were actively offering one of two relievers: Ramon Ramirez or Leo Nunez. Any ways a few hours later the trade was official, and the Marlins got Nunez for the first baseman. There have been rumors of the Marlins hoping to trade Jacobs for a week now, and it was finally done today.

Initially, I was against the trade on the Royals behalf. Some known quantities going into the trade:

• The Royals have a surplus of relievers: in addition to the AL-best closer Joakim Soria and Nunez, they also have Ramon Ramirez (3-2, 2.64.) They have Ron Mahay (5-0, 3.48) at 4MM for another year in 2009 as well, and Horacio Ramirez (1-1, 2.59) re-established as a stable reliever after being castoff from the Mariners and White Sox. (On an aside, they need to slowly work Soria into the rotation, who is signed cheaply through 2011.)
• The Marlins have a surplus of corner infielders. Jorge Cantu (2.77, 29, 95) can be moved to first, since the Marlins will need to find at bats for Dallas MacPherson (.275, 42, 98 at Triple-A) and Gaby Sanchez (.314, 17, 92, 17 at Double-A.)

Everyone knows the pluses (32 HR, 93 RBI, .514 SLG) and minuses (.299 OBP, .247 BA) of Jacobs, so it makes perfect sense for the Marlins to move him. As ESPN said he’s also arbitration eligible, and looking at a comparable player Garrett Atkins, who got 4.3MM in his first arb year, Jacobs can expect a salary anywhere between 2.75MM and 3.5MM for 2009.

Regular readers to Late Innings know that I’m a big fan of Nunez, however I thought this trade out heavily today. Sure the Marlins won now, since they got bullpen depth and salary relief. Jacobs does solidify first for the Royals, and it didn’t cost them that much, however they have tons of depth as well. Billy Butler, Ross Gload (in the last year of his two-year deal) and Ryan Shealy are all capable bats. And the Royals also have Kila Ka’aihue in the wings as well. Granted he may or may not make it in the majors, but his .314 with 37 HR and 100 RBI in the minors cannot be ignored.

I’ve highlighted Jacobs’ weaknesses, however Nunez comes with fault himself. In 49 innings, he pitched to roughly a 6 K/9 and a 3 BB/9, though he did have a solid 2.98 ERA, due to a lower than average BABIP. Due to the high walk counts, Nunez shouldn’t really be a closer, and the Royals if they had to trade anyone should be glad that they moved Nunez. If Jacobs can work counts better however, he could be dangerous, given that incredible power. Look at another first baseman, Mark Teixeira. His OBP starting from his rookie year to his free agent year went as follows: .331 (2003), .370 (2004), .379 (2005), .371 (2006), .400 (2007), .410 (2008). Teixeira is also an excellent defender, something Jacobs is not.

It’s much easier to teach a hitter to be more patient and draw more walks, than it is to teach a pitcher to throw less walks. Jacobs might not ever become Teixeira, however if he becomes more patient at the plate and learns how to play better defense, he could be a viable trade chip for the Royals after 2009, especially if Ka’aihue hits well in 2009. With that point, I think now that the trade is even, however if Jacobs does what I suggest, the edge goes to the Royals after the 2009 season. Trading him then would only benefit their already-deep farm system.

Some other news shorts from a busy Thursday:

Orioles to explore extensions with Roberts and Markakis

Andy MacPhail and the Orioles management want to extend second baseman Brian Roberts (signed through 2009) and outfielder Nick Markakis (under team control through 2011.) Given the fact that Baltimore foolishly handed out money before MacPhail’s control, it’s a good idea that he’s targeting these two players. Markakis is someone who’s continuing to improve, and had a very nice .406 OBP in 2008. If the team adds Teixeira and that solid OBP to the solid seasons from Aubrey Huff (.912 OPS) and Roberts (.828 OPS), that’s a basis for a very solid lineup. And given Tex’s OBP and defense, I have no complaints with the O’s paying him the money he wants, even if it is 20MM a year. Now the pitching is another story…

Cordero a Free Agent

The Nationals optioned former closer Chad Cordero to Triple-A, and he elected to become a free agent instead. He was paid 6.2MM to pitch an injury-riddled year.

Brewers announce Ken Macha as Manager

Again, this move makes great sense, however anyone who managed those Oakland teams with the “Big Three” pitching would have did equally as well. Macha gets a two-year deal.

Renteria, Griffey Jr.’s Team Options Declined

The Tigers officially declined Edgar Renteria’s 11MM option, and the White Sox did the same with the 16MM option for Ken Griffey Jr. Both players had down years in 2008, though I expect Renteria to draw better interest, especially since he’s only one year out of his .332/.390/.470 year with the Braves in 2007.

I wanted to extend my sincere congratulations to the Phillies, MLB World Champions for 2008. Just like Ron Jeremy in a porno, they pulled it out. People who read Late Innings regularly know that I’m from Pennsylvania (actually I just revealed that.) I generally root for the Orioles, however a drive to see the Phillies is just an hour and a half away from here. Still as most people know, my allegiance lies with the American League, particularly the AL East. I root for any AL team outside of Boston or New York, and I really wanted Tampa Bay to win this.

Not to joke, but I’ve said before that the Phillies had a window to win, and they’ve did it tonight. That’s worth my respect, especially to Pat Gillick, the genius who edified this team, the same genius who constructed the winning teams that Baltimore had ten years ago. Now the new Philies GM (Ruben Amaro?) gets the fun of deciding what Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard and Ryan Madison (all arbitration-eligible) get paid in 2009.

Smile big guy, you’re getting another big raise in 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Any ways with the series done, and the Election about to be finished as well, we’re going to kick off the exciting MLB offseason, woohoo! And some stuff in store for Late Innings, keep tuned… Yeah I know I got some increased traffic (big time, people actually think I’ve got good things to say), and tomorrow’s essay is going to shake some people… it’s an essay about sports communism, and how I tie it into the current political landscape. It will piss off some people, and you sure as ever don’t want to miss it.

Keep in mind that I’m totally drunk now, and playing Guitar Hero as well.

One week after the Election in November, the Orioles are holding a Rally in Baltimore. One point that everyone’s speculating on is that the team will be unveiling a new uniform for the team. Could there be a new logo in store for the Orioles? That is could we be seeing a meaner bird? Hopefully a new logo will force its team to not play like shit each and every September…

The uniform change did some good for the Tampa Bay Rays in the off season last year. Gone was the neon green (as well as the word “devil"), and it was replaced with a more conservative navy blue look. The result, the team went from worst in 2007 to a MLB-third best 97 wins in 2008.

If you look good, you play good (Wikipedia.)

In regards to the World Series, Tampa Bay can still win this thing, even being down 3-1. The series will resume Wednesday, but luckily for the team they won’t have to face Cole Hamels the rest of the year, and won’t have to face bad strike-zones for Scott Kazmir. The two best bullpens in baseball will go at it on Wednesday in Game Five, and if Tampa can break the tie and pull it out they’ll be in good shape. Game Six sees a sharp James Shields going against an erratic Brett Myers, and Game Seven features the Matt Garza/Jamie Moyer rematch. Garza was clutch in Game Seven in the ALCS as well, and if I was Philadelphia, I’d push to win Game Five and end this series, just so I wouldn’t have to face Shields and (the ALCS MVP) Garza.

Angelic Options

Per RotoWorld:

Angels exercised outfielder Vladimir Guerrero’s $15 million option for 2009…Angels exercised RHP John Lackey’s $9 million option for 2009…Angels declined outfielder Garret Anderson’s $14 million option for 2009.

Again, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to make these moves.

Grading Trades

It was a year ago from this upcoming Thursday that the Tigers and Dave Dombrowski dealt a pitching prospect in Jair Jurjens and a young outfield prospect in Gorkys Hernandez for the All Star shortstop Edgar Renteria. Renteria struggled in 2008, posting an OPS under .700, and will most likely lead to the Tigers declining the team’s 2009 option. Hernandez meanwhile is one of the top hitting prospects in the Braves orginization (outside of the Jason Heyward, Jordan Schaffer mix), and Jurjens simply went on to go 13-10, 3.68 for the Braves in 31 starts, arguably becoming their staff ace throughout the season.

Back then Detroit got the upper hand with the trade, however it’s clear that the Braves won out in the long run. On an interesting close, here’s a great piece which does the same thing will all the trades that happened last off season.

It was a relatively slow news day, however there were a few points that I wanted to discuss here:

• Rockies reliever Luis Vizcaino was charged with a D.U.I. and is being held with a 500 USD bail. MLB D.U.I.s aren’t a big deal, however they’re fun to write about. Joba Chamberlain had one last week, B.J. Upton had one in the past as well. These things come and go by quickly, unless there’s a manslaughter charge pressing. Still on an aside, you’d think that the Rockies would rather now have LaTroy Hawkins instead of “The Viz", especially based on how well Hawkins pitched for the Astros.
• RotoProfessor gives his Top 10 Free Agent busts from 2007. I can’t agree anymore with him on his #1 pick, as I’ve been saying for some time now.
• According to the Denver Post, the Rockies want to move Garret Atkins for pitching, based on the fact that he’s due another raise in arbitration this season, and the other fact that Ian Stewart has emerged as a solid infield option. Atkins’ road numbers should scare you by the way.
• Jack Zduriencik, the new GM of the M’s, is starting his search for the new team’s manager. Is Ned Yost the logical answer? Also, the Onion makes a great case as to why Jim Riggleman should be brought back to manage the team.
• According to MLBTR, a Mark Teahen/Franklin Gutierrez trade between the Royals and Indians is false rumors. I spoke highly about both players in the Spring, and even though I correctly predicted that Teahen’s power had returned, his other numbers (OPS in particular) have regressed.

Update: Schmuck also addresses the issue of Canadian nationalism, which was clearly a motivating factor in Loewen’s decision.

Any ways, as I found out yesterday about the Blue Jays being interested in Adam Loewen. And as it turned out, the Blue Jays gave him a minor league contract which he accepted. He’ll probably be thrown into Single-A next season as an outfielder. Any ways I’m disappointed, Orioles fans are disappointed and I’m sure that the front office is disappointed as well, especially after investing so much time and money into the 2002 first round draft pick. The motivation for him going back I think was his home country of Canada, however it’s all a mute point now. Any ways some posts I saw, Camden Chat chimes in, and Peter Schmuck says it’s time to move on.

Some other news:

• If the Rays win the World Series, each player could see an extra 300K coming to them. Granted this money is chump change for a big market team like the Yankees, however the Rays are operating on a 40MM team payroll, with many of the players making the league minimum 400K this season.
• More Blue Jays news, the Jays signed former #1 overall pick Bryan Bullington. He probably won’t do much for them going forward, however it’s interesting to note that yesterday the Jays grabbed the #1 and the #4 picks in the 2002 draft.
• I wrote a piece a while back about the Rangers and their catching log jam. Apparenty I’m not the only one who thinks that the Red Sox would be interested in Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Marlins would be interested in Gerald Laird.

Some random links for today. I’ll keep these short and sweet, since a heavy night of drinking is about to commence.

• Cole Hamels‘ stellar postseason should help net him a big payday in 2009, his first arbitration season. I’m predicting that he’ll be awarded a 6MM salary in 2009, given the past qualms about his contract from this year. It should be noted that even though Ryan Howard is struggling in the postseason, he’ll probably be given a 3MM or so raise and get into the 13MM ballpark, year two of salary arbitration for him.
• RotoProfessor looks at Chris Tillman (one-time Mariners prospect that the Orioles received in the Erik Bedard trade.) Some points of note, he may be useful for them in 2009, given the lack of starters that Baltimore has. His 1.33 WHIP from last year was alarming though, and comparisons were drawn to another walk-prone pitcher with all the talent in the world: Daniel Cabrera.
• J.J. Cooper of Baseball America looks at the accomplishments of (new Mariners GM) Jack Zduriencik in Milwaukee.
• Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun reminds the Cubs that they can have Brian Roberts, however it’ll cost them Josh Vitters to start. I know that teams are reluctant to trade their 2007 first round picks, but this is what it’ll cost to get Roberts.
• The Blue Jays and other teams (outside of Baltimore) are interested in Adam Loewen as a hitter. I think the glowing words from MASN’s Roch Kubatko about Loewen’s patience kindled the interest. Speaking of jokes on Jamie Moyer, some clever humor about him (I think I was five when the Orioles traded him to the Red Sox.) Correction, Boston signed him in 1996.
• Billy Beane talks health care, Moneyball-style.
• Raising Arizona — the AFL’s “Rising Stars” game starts today. An incredible cast of young talent will be featured.

Update: the Peavy to the Braves trade now seems highly unlikely, especially since Frank Wren doesn’t want to surrender the Braves’ top talent.

I wrote about this earlier last week, and the topic has gotten more and more attention since then. Any ways for the most part, due to issues such as no-trade clauses and prospect availability, the only team that has been linked with the Jake Peavy trade rumors has been the Atlanta Braves. There have been a number of suggestions linked, and the one group that has been mentioned is Tommy Hanson, Jordan Schafer, and one of Kelly Johnson/Yunel Escobar. Hanson for the most part is their only pitching prospect, Schafer lost some of his early season glitter after his 50 game HGH suspension, and Johnson/Escobar are regulars in the Braves infield.

Any ways personally I don’t feel that is enough for Peavy, who if going by the “good season", “off season” trend for Padres pitchers (which started with Oliver Perez and Brian Lawrence) is due for one hell of a season in 2008. Keith Law for the most part agrees.

The first question I have is why is Jason Heyward’s name not mentioned in these rumors? He should be the starting centerpiece for any deal for Peavy. I know that people don’t like trading their 2007 draft picks, however the Brewers did it with Matt LaPorta when they acquired C.C. Sabathia. I know that I’m not Paul DePodesta, but this is what I would do if I would shop Peavy (which I’m still not sure if the Padres even want to trade.)

Any ways Sickels coincidentally did his 20 best prospects for the Braves last night, during Game 2 of the World Series, and in media res of these Peavy talks. He ranked the prospects, and Heyward is #1, Hanson is #3 and Schafer is #4. Heyward got an A-, and Hanson and Schafer got B+es. Any ways his comments on Heyward:

A personal favorite, though he actually hit fewer homers than expected. Broad base of skills.

Some remarks on Tommy Hanson:

Looks good to me, though will need some Triple-A to put on the finishing touches. Number Two starter ceiling.

And a humorous quip on Schafer:

Power, speed, defense, OBP, and played well without the juice.

Any ways to surmise what the Padres could be getting here, a #3 pitching prospect, a #4 outfield prospect, and a regressing infielder in Johnson for an All Star in Peavy (who still had a 2.85 ERA in a “down” year?) If DePodesta pulled the trigger on this trade, we’d be ridiculing him, since this is a worse haul than the Twins got for Johan Santana. The city of San Diego would probably go after him as well.

Any ways to the Braves fans, start the package with Heyward. Throw in Hanson and two other top pitching prospects (kinda barren here) and you can have Peavy. That would do it for me, and would probably do it for the Padres as well. That’s the template which got the Mariners Erik Bedard, the Diamondbacks Dan Haren, the Brewers Sabathia and the Twins Santana.

If the Padres need help in looking for Braves pitching prospects, they can wait a few weeks for Baseball America to do their top 10 organizational prospects. They usually do the NL teams in November and the AL teams in January. Still there’s one thing that’s certain about these Peavy trade rumors: there should be no rush whatsoever on the Padres’ part to move their ace.

The Mariners finally made a splash today and named their GM choice, former Brewers executive Jack Zduriencik. This move was supposed to be announced last Friday, and we got news today that they were still searching. In either case Zduriencik is responsible for developing a talented young core of players in Milwaukee, such as Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Ryan Bruan. He now gets the task of essentially undoing the four-plus years of mistake that Bill Bavasi made on the organization.

I was going to cite Prospect Insider on this story, however they’re down now. Hopefully Jason Churchill and Co. can get WordPress back up and running. In either case, most of the reports that I’ve seen on this move have been favorable. He was probably the M’s best choice, mainly since the best executives weren’t allowed by their teams (e.g. Tigers, Padres) to even interview.

There have been some humorous posts about this signing, my personal favorite:

At the very least I don’t think the Mariners will be selecting another closer in the first round anytime soon

Personally I feel that the Mariners are developing talent as good as any team. They’ve been drafting very well, and as I’ve said before here, I’m a big fan of their recent first rounders, that is Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow and Phillipe Aumont. What doomed them last season was Bavasi. He over-dealt the good youth (e.g. Rafeal Soriano, Chris Tillman, Adam Jones) and over-paid for aging players (e.g. Richie Sexon, Carlos Silva, Kenji Johjima, etc.) At the time when he signed Adrian Beltre to his four year deal (coming off that 48 HR season), Beltre was maligned, however in retrospect this appears to be a good move.

Regardless what the M’s need to do is do what the Rays, Pirates, Orioles, Indians, Royals and such are doing, which is build the young talent up, and avoid caustic contracts. They can’t expect some team to just hand over Kevin Slowley for Beltre (like they tried back in July), just out of pity for what Bavasi did on the team. It took them four years to get into the mess, it’s going to take them four years to get out. Bavasi was bad (here’s a good post on Forbes last year ranking the GMs with three years of experience, Bavasi is in the bottom 10%.) Zduriencik is a move in the right direction.

Ranking the Youth

Bill James has his rankings out for the best young teams, which will be part of his 2009 Almanac (available next month.) Here’s his listing of the teams:

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Florida Marlins
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Milwaukee Brewers
7. Cleveland Indians
8. Colorado Rockies
9. Atlanta Braves
10. Boston Red Sox
11. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
12. Oakland A’s
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Cincinnati Reds
16. New York Mets
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Seattle Mariners
19. Texas Rangers
20. Philadelphia Phillies
21. San Diego Padres
22. San Francisco Giants
23. Washington Nationals
24. Baltimore Orioles
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Chicago Cubs
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Toronto Blue Jays
29. New York Yankees
30. Houston Astros

I can’t agree any further with this list. The Twins have the best 1-5 starters right now, and they were all homegrown. They also have great outfielders in the wings as well. Sickels doesn’t regard them too highly however, though he says glowing things about Ben Revere. Still what the Twins have now is a testament to what the Mariners need to do to right their ship. To further add to this, James has his top 25 under-25 list out as well. It’s tough to disagree with any of these choices, though some of the players might deserve a “bump":

1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24

An Unlikely Fall Classic

For the record about the series, I predicted the Dodgers to win the whole thing. I was wrong admittedly (though they did make it deep into the NLCS.) Any ways with that said, just like everyone else I like the Rays. The main reason why is Scott Kazmir. The Philies will face him twice in the series, including this evening. Kazmir missed the first month of the year, then broke out in May, going 5-1, 1.22. He made the All Star team and got the win in the extra-innings game, then started to stumble in the second half, finishing with a 3.49 ERA for the season.

His first two postseason starts were tough, but the six shutout innings he threw in Game 5 in the ALCS were brilliant (with seven Ks to go as well.) David Price and Andy Sonnanstine are the X-factors here. The Phillies might win it, however they need to move up Joe Blanton to be the third starter. The Rays are a smart offense, and they hit soft tossers hard (e.g. Tim Wakefield last series.) They’ll face Jamie “Grandpa” Moyer twice. In either case, it’ll be a good series, and since I root for the AL East, I’m rooting for the Rays. Their starting pitching should get the job done.

I just wanted to round up a few interesting links and small news tidbits of the day:

• David Laurila of BP sat down with Indians’ starter Anthony Reyes for a five minute Q&A session. Apparently there was some bad blood between Reyes and (Cardnials pitching coach) Dave Duncan. Reyes seemed to find his niche in Cleveland, pitching to a 2-1 record with a 1.83 ERA before being shut down. You have to give credit to Mark Shapiro for this shrewd move. He gets a very-solid starter to be matched alongside Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook, and all it cost him was a middle reliever.
• The Dodgers shot down the 5.5MM 2009 team option on Angel Berroa, and the Cardinals did the same with Mark Mulder’s 11.5MM option. Next on the easy list, the Braves choosing between a 6MM buyout our a 20MM option for Mike Hampton. On an aside back to Berroa, remember when there was outrage on the East Coast about Hideki Matsui being snubbed for the 2003 Rookie of the Year voting?
• Jose Canseco now has regrets after writing Juiced (no surprise.) File under “clown.”
• Here’s a clever post from Royals Review which attempts to find a measure to whether a starting pitcher is a bona-fide #1, #2, etc. His findings were that Zack Greinke was an ace in 2008, and Gil Meche was an ace in 2007 and just missed the cut in 2008 (funny about those who were criticizing the Royals for Meche and his contract before last year.) Any ways the Royals won 75 games last year, and you could only imagine how many more they’d win with Joakim Soria in their rotation (note to Glass, Moore, Hillman, Leo Nunez can close.) Conversely you can also imagine how many more they would have lost had Carlos Silva been their #3 starter.
• I think I’ve reverse-engineered J.C. Bradbury’s formula which is used to calculate a player’s true value. Since he says that Mark Ellis will be valued at 35MM between 2009 and 2010, and Ellis actually will be receiving 11MM during those two years, then his formula must weight defense ten times as much as offense (no need to calculate any eigen vectors here.) It’s either that, or that he’s factoring in the extra million fans that will come to Oakland and pay to watch the A’s play in 2009, just for them resigning Ellis. Next up on the things I plan to reverse-engineer: the Elias Rankings, Google’s PageRank algorithm and the SAT score metrics.

• I’ve seen a good amount of news today on Jason Varitek and whether he’d return to Boston. Long story short, Jorge Posada got the money he did last winter after hitting .338, hitting 20 HRs and putting up a sparking 154 OPS+. Varitek’s 2008 numbers were litterally half of that (.220, 13 HR, 74 OPS+.) If Scott Boras expects his client to get Posada’s money he got in 2007, Boston will let Jason walk.

  I’ve seen a few comments and Red Sox blogs about how the Orioles will give away Ramon Hernandez to them for free. Note to the Nation: fat chance. Hernandez was the tenth-best fantasy catcher last year, and Andy MacPhail isn’t going to just flip him, with Baltimore paying some of the salary. Hernandez is a viable trade chip, the same goes with Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff. All three hitters had solid 2008 seasons. Besides, if Baltimore elects to not-resign Kevin Millar (20HR at 3MM in 2008 is not overpaid by the way), Hernandez can still play first for them in 2009. Matt Weiters is all but ready to be the starting backstop in 2009, and alonside David Price of the Rays, are the early challengers for the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year award. If the Red Sox fans want a trade that works, the Sox would flip Clay Buchholz to the Orioles for Hernandez. Buchholz then in turn would flip his girlfriend Erica Ellyson (2008 Penthouse Pet of the Year) to me. That’s a trade that would clearly benefit all three parties.

The Orioles started shaping up their 40 man roster for the Rule V draft (which occurs during the Winter Meetings in December in Las Vegas.) They sent five players to Triple-A Norfolk, the notable one being Randor Bierd, last year’s Rule V pick by the Orioles from the Tigers. Bierd finished with a 4.91 ERA in 36.1 innings. He was highly-effective until he got injured, pitching to a 2.03 ERA. He took a 3.60 ERA into September when he came back from the DL, however like all Orioles players that month, Bierd stumbled at the finish line.

Bierd does need seasoning this year in the minors, but he still has a live arm, pitching to a 10+ K/9 in 2007. On an aside this year’s Rule V draft wasn’t too exciting. I thought Bierd was a good find, however the player who made the best impact was Wesley Wright, a solid member of the Astros’ bullpen. And like most people I thought Brian Barton and R.A. Dickey would have made larger impacts than they did.

On to Loewen, his career as a pitcher is over. He was the fourth overall pick in the 2002 draft by the Orioles, who gave him a major league deal for about 4MM one year in college. Granted this didn’t turn out as well as they had hoped, and hopefully the same fate won’t happen to Brian Matusz, who also received a major league deal. Granted Joe Jordan wasn’t the Director of Scouting back then… any ways Loewen can always come back as a hitter. He might catch fire and do what Rick Ankiel is doing. The Orioles can always sign him to a minor league deal, however he’ll have to pass through waivers first. I’m not sure if any team will ween interest in him.

Loewen finishes his pitching career with a 8-8, 5.38 record in parts of three seasons. (Photo: Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Yeah I know, few people on the East Coast remember this guy. If you were a Diamondbacks fan, you referred to him as the (effective) alternative to (the lazy) Travis Lee, the first baseman in their inaugural season of 1998. Durazo was solid for the Diamondbacks. Any ways the Diamondbacks apparently saw something they didn’t like in him, then dealt to the A’s in 2003. He broke out in 2003 and 2004, and like most people I thought he was destined for super-stardom. However he fell off the Earth in 2005.

He’s with the Yankees now, and is tearing up the Mexican Pacific League, hitting .341 with four homers. In this Google Translation, he hit two bombs last week. Any ways the Yankees’ roster is bound to change big time this winter, and Durazo may play a quiet role for the team in 2009. Then again, he may not. However look at the Tampa Bay Rays. They took a chance on Carlos Pena in 2007, a similar first baseman whom many teams gave up on, and he hit 46 homers. Scott Boras wanted to make them pay, however he signed a team-friendly three year contract last winter. He’s now going to the World Series for the Rays. Maybe the same fate can happen to Durazo?

I watched the game last night (and had to listen to Buck Martinez, ugh), and in the end smiled. I’m proud of the Rays, proud of the fact that the American League team came from my favorite division, the AL East. I know that by not having the Nation and the Dodgers in the series, it’ll be a “ratings disaster” (to quote ESPN.) But I could care less, this will be a great series.

I wanted to comment on David Price. I think the sky’s the limit for him, and he’ll be to the American League next year what Tim Lincecum was to the National League this year. For a player who was drafted #1 overall last year to not be given an MLB contract, he progressed fairly quickly through the Rays’ system. Watching him save out the Rays’ ALCS made me think back to the 2006 series, when Adam Wainright was thrust into closing duties for the Cardinals against the Tigers. I also heard comparisons to how Francisco Rodriguez took the bull by the horns as well the last time the Angels were in the World Series.

Nonetheless, some fun facts about Price, there was a “what if” post on BP this weekend, asking what would have happened between one game in 2006 between the Tigers and the Royals, who essentially helped guarantee that Tampa Bay would get the #1 overall pick in 2007 (and choose Price.) Had the Royals gotten this pick, they would have presumably picked Price as well; pitchers like him are rare. Nothing against Mike Moustakas, whom I think will be fine (Sickels only gave him a A-), the Rays got the upper hand here. And to pour more salt in the wound between these two teams, Evan Longoria is looking like a better pick from the 2006 draft (drafted #3) than Luke Hovechar (overall #1, not that he won’t be a useful starter.) Now if only Tampa would have drafted better from the talented crop of players available in the 2005 draft (Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, Chris Volstad, Matt Garza, Joey Devine, Colby Rasmus and Jacoby Ellsbury were all drafted after Wade Townsend in the first round, a pitcher who probably won’t ever see the light of day. Then again, Chuck LaMar was running the franchise in 2005, and we all know what happened then.)

The Hendry Contract

The Cubs finally got things done today, even with sale of the organization looming, by giving Jim Hendry a four year extension today. Great move at it couldn’t have come any sooner. Now he can focus on resigning Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, which hopefully he can do soon.

Hendry assembled the best team in the National League last year (winning percentage-wise, sorry Phillies fans.) The team’s three-and-out postseason wasn’t his fault, though he should have gave in a little to Andy MacPhail’s demands for Brian Roberts. He would have gotten two years from Roberts (who doesn’t hit free agency until ‘09), and would have got a hitter who could have brought life into the lineup in October, something Alfonso Soriano fails to do each and every time out.

The Late Innings Mail Bag Segment

I’m not sure what was said on MASN this past week, but I got three seperate emails asking me about the Orioles and their chances for signing free agent Oliver Perez. I honestly haven’t heard any rumors about this, and wouldn’t be too mum about the O’s signing this pitcher. Granted he’s a Scott Boras client, but he’s coming off a down year. Could he get 16MM a year like many were speculating this past Spring? I doubt it.

Perez rebounded from a poor start to finish 10-7, 4.22 in 2008. (AP)

Back in August, I speculated that Perez would get 11MM-12MM this winter from the clubs. Of course now that Jake Peavy is available on the market, this changes everything (look what Erik Bedard, Johan Santana and Dan Haren did to the free agent starters, notably Kyle Lohse.) I could see Perez getting something more than the 41MM that Lohse got last month, but Boras would probably consider that selling low on his client. He might opt Perez to take a low term deal (two years or so) at 10MM a year to reestablish his value.

Personally I wouldn’t mind having a short-term deal on Perez, mainly since Baltimore has so much pitching coming up in the minors. Four years is too much, especially since Perez’s ERA would go up by a half run moving to the AL East. Four years of Jon Garland would be worse, much worse. And I think four years at 15MM per season for A.J. Burnett would be foolish. I know that Baltimore needs to bring in an arm to back Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation, but an innings-eater like Braden Looper would be more ideal. According to Buster Olney, the O’s are prepared to go on a spending binge this Winter, and Burnett and Mark Teixeira (MD natives) are in their crosshairs. I would love to have Teixeira, and given his track record and health he would make sense. However at 20MM a year, that’s too large of a percentage of the budget to allocate to one player, even if he would place fans in the seats at Camden Yards.

More on the Mets and Royals

To close, there was a rumor which came up about a possible swap between these two clubs for Luis Castillo and Jose Guillen. Actually these two teams have been talking. Guillen has 24MM owed over the next two, Castillo 18MM over the next three. Both would address holes on each team as well, with the Mets needing outfield help, and the Royals looking to sign a middle infielder (they’re interested in Rafeal Furcal.)

If that trade occurred, I would like it on both sides. I know that everyone is considering each signing a “bad contract” (you might want to lump Juan Pierre into this discussion), but it’s not the player’s fault that they received the money they did (point the fingers at the clubs here), especially given the fact that their 2008 numbers were indicative of their career norms.

Update: it’s a two year deal for about 10MM to 11MM. There’s an option for a third year, so the total value of the contract could be worth 18MM. On an aside, I predicted three years, 18MM a while back, so I’m right on the money here with my guess.

ESPN is reporting that the Oakland A’s and second baseman Mark Ellis agreed to a multi-year contract extension (there were rumors in Buster Olney’s blog yesterday.) He was set to become a free agent after the World Series ended. Ellis is one of the premier defensive second baseman in all of baseball, however his bat regressed in 2007: hitting .233/12/41. He stole 14 bases though, and this was the first time that he reached a double-double for his career. He hit a career high 19 homers in 2007.

I predicted that the Cardinals would have signed Ellis this winter, since they clearly need middle infield help. Billy Beane however didn’t let him get out onto the open market. The A’s have a glut of young second basemen, that is Eric Patterson, Jemile Weeks, Adrian Cardenas… Ellis still is a good fit however, since the later two aren’t MLB-ready and Patterson can play just about anywhere. On the whole this is a good move by Beane, and I like the signing. I’ll post terms and value of the contract once that news surfaces.

The MLB postseason awards were handed out a little early. Saturday morning, the cops pulled over Yankees starter Joba Chamberlain and handed him a new award of his own. No, no, no, he didn’t receive Rookie of the Year (sorry Evan Longoria), however he received something a little different: a D.U.I.

From what my friends say, these things suck. Hopefully he’ll get good legal representation. Some of the things he was charged for aside from the intoxication, driving with an open container. Ouch. I’ve personally never gotten a D.U.I., and since I’ve got my own place, I probably won’t have to worry about doing that, since I found out that it’s so much cheaper (and safer) to drink at home. That’s why I’m hanging out with my good friend Johnnie Walker this fine Sunday morning.

Taking a page from the Paris Hilton playbook…

The reason why I’m drinking this early, the Rays couldn’t seal the deal. The Nation is advancing to a game seven. Wow…

Wow, plenty to talk about today, the main story revolving around Jake Peavy. There has been plenty of rumors speculating where Peavy could go in a trade, after all the Padres are looking to cut payroll, down to about 40MM or so (wow, that’s low.) The team is clearly in rebuilding mode now, and with or without Peavy, the team will still lose. He’s under team control until 2012, and there’s a 22MM option for 2013, so given the current cost of ace pitching, Peavy is in great demand. In other words, the Padres would be wise to trade Peavy now while he’s at his highest value, much like how the Orioles traded Erik Bedard last winter. After all Peavy is injury-prone…

So now that Buster Olney and ESPN is talking Peavy rumors, a blockbuster trade is starting to look highly likely. As to who would be a good fit for Peavy, I’m not sure. Many people are speculating the Braves, and he would be a good fit. The Braves have historically dealt for or acquired pitchers right before they’ve hit their height. The list includes Greg Maddux, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, … Any ways what would Peavy cost the Braves? For starters the Padres want pitching back. Three young pitchers, maybe? I’m not sure. The Braves have a glut of talented young outfielders, like Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez. Given Schafer’s trouble with substance abuse last year, the Padres would probably target their #1 pick from two years ago Heyward. The Braves could also build a package around Yunel Escobar as well, and I think that would entice the Padres. The Braves don’t have the pitching depth in the minors however, so Jo Jo Reyes and or Jair Jurjens would have to go as well. I think a package involving those players would work, however people are speculating that Khalil Green could be moved to Atlanta as well if Escobar goes, so we could potentially have a big blockbuster here.

The Padres don’t have to do this trade, however moving Peavy and Green would shed 17MM off next season’s payroll. That would open up doors for them to resign Trevor Hoffman, as well as paying those that are arbitration-eligible. Could they lock up Chase Headley like the Rays did with Evan Longoria? Possibly. Still, I give Paul DePodesta credit. He wrote up a great piece on his blog about what would happen if they were to trade Peavy. For one, their rotation would look ugly next year (even with them playing at Petco and having Chris Young on board.) There are so many reasons as to why you’d want to “sucker” a player into a team-friendly below-market extension, much like how the Marlins did last winter with Hanley Ramirez. After all, you get yourself a viable trade chip.

More on the Marlins, the next Rays?

As most people know, the Marlins have a great wealth of young talent. We saw it this September with the emergence of Cameron Maybin. However they have a budget payroll, and they have a ton of players that are arbitration eligible, most notably second baseman Dan Uggla, who could be a 6MM player after coming off a pair of three straight seasons where he averaged exactly 30 home runs a season. The Marlins know that they could be close, and instead of trading the talent like they’ve done in years past, they might retain it. One player they might want to move is Mike Jacobs. His stats are deceiving. Yes he hit 32 HR and slugged .514, however the .247 average is bad, the .299 OBP is worse. With Dallas MacPherson in the minors, the team would be wise to move him while his value is at his highest. Yes the Marlins are a good team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they could be deadly, especially in a short series. Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez make up a good tandem for a postseason recipe.

Josh Johnson is a sleeper for a monster 2009 season.(mlb.com)

Repairing the Foundation

The Tigers secretly snuck in and grabbed a new pitching coach: Rick Knapp. Knapp was last season’s pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, and made pitchers such as Kevin Slowley (12-11, 3.99), Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.05), Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.41) and Scott Baker (11-4, 3.45) household names in Minnesota. You might as well throw in Francisco Liriano (6-4, 3.91) into the mix, the basis of a good (and cheap) five-man rotation. Any ways this is quietly a good move on the Tigers’ behalf, especially given the team’s 27th ranked 4.90 team ERA in 2008. They got good production from Armando Gallarraga and Zach Miner, however Knapp will have his work cut out fixing what went wrong with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis (I’ll give you a hint, they didn’t throw strikes.) The same thing goes with Justin Verlander, whose regression was a puzzle, after he went 11-17 in 2008, after winning 35 games the first two years in the majors.

Overpricing the Second-base Market

The Indians exercised Jamey Carroll’s 2009 2.5MM option, after hitting .277 with an uninspiring .702 OPS. The team tried to renegotiate the contract, however they couldn’t get anywhere and simply picked up the option on Carroll to avoid spilling bad blood. So how will this affect the other second basemen on the market? Not sure, however Orlando Hudson could possibly be a 12MM player in 2009. And this could quietly play a hand if Baltimore was to make an extension offer to Brian Roberts.

Another Quiet First Baseman

The Cardinals released Josh Phelps this week as well. He always was a sleeper for a breakout season, and he might as just did it last season, after hitting .291 with 31 HR and 97 RBI in the minors. The team took a chance on Ryan Ludwick, and it payed off for them heavily, after he hit 37 HR in 2008. Phelps could now be a good pickup for a team looking for cheap power, much like how the Rays picked up Carlos Pena for the 2007 season. The Cardinals had to release him Phelps, since there was simply no room for him on the roster. After all they had some guy named Pujols in front of him, who only hit .357 with 37 HR, albeit being injured this season. Yikes.

In regards to the Rays and their success, a good portion of it has to be attributed to their young GM Andrew Friedman. However one of the senior advisers to Friedman is Gerry Hunsicker, the former Astros GM. Given the success that the team has now, Hunsicker will be a hot commodity this winter with teams searching for new GMs. One possibility that was brought up was having Hunsicker head back to Texas and serve as an assistant to the young Jon Daniels of the Rangers. As John Sickels pointed out, the team did win 79 games this year, however they have a few areas that need addressed.

At the end of April, the Rangers were 10-18 and looked lost. Everyone was expecting that their manager Ron Washington would be fired at that point. He could still be, especially knowing that Nolan Ryan wants to change this team, however the team did play much better after April, getting back to .500 and flirting with it the rest of the way. Had the team played better in April, they could have been a .500 team in 2008.

In either case, as Sickels pointed out the Rangers have some areas to address. These include:

• Addressing holes at third base
• Addressing weaknesses in their pitching
• Solving the catching/first base “log jam”

Hank Blalock was hot in September and his 6.2MM option for 2009 should be picked up. However as to being a long term option, it’s yet to be known. They have great depth around with David Murphy, Chris Davis, and an excellent farm system. The team however needs starting pitching. Scott Feldman came on at the end of the season, but Vicente Padilla and Kevin Millwood aren’t optimal long-term answers. And we can’t forget that the team will be doling out 80MM over the next six years to Michael Young, a move which will definitely put a damper on the team’s finances (thankfully they were able to lock up Ian Kinsler cheaply last year for 22MM.)

In either case, getting to the point of this post, the Rangers have a surplus at catching right now. They have four catchers who could be regular starters on any major league team: Gerald Laird, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden. Since the team is in a rebuilding phase still, they should be starting a platoon of Teagarden and Ramirez (who doesn’t need to be traded anymore by the way.) Both players have the power potential, and Teagarden hit very well at the end of the season to earn a starting role (Ramirez still has to do this.) These two also have the least amount of service time amongst their peers, so it’s wise to hold onto each. In regards to the other two, the following trades would be wise from both sides:

• Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox. As I wrote earlier today, Jason Varitek isn’t hitting this postseason and I think his days of starting are now outnumbered, though I once expected that he’d resign with the club this winter for 10MM. Saltalamacchia is a player that Theo Epstein likes, and he’s cheap, under team-control and is talented. He was the crown jewel of the Mark Teixeira trade back in the Summer of 2007. The Red Sox have the young pitching and infield prospects needed to pry him from Daniels and the Rangers.
• Laird to the Marlins. There was a post up on MLB.com this weekend about how the Rockies were looking to trade Dan Uggla and Scott Olsen for Yorvit Torrealba and a prospect. Yikes. I know that both players are arbitration eligible, but Torrealba is a free agent next winter, and wouldn’t be much cheaper than not paying Uggla and Olsen. Laird makes more sense. He’s a plus hitter and a plus defender, and is the most experienced catcher on the Rangers. The Marlins, like the Red Sox, have the young talent that Daniels craves. I don’t see them coughing up Chris Volstad, however the arbitration-eligible Jorge Cantu would make sense at third, given the fact that Dallas MacPherson (and his 40 home runs from last season) reside in Triple-A.

I love writing about the Red Sox, especially in the disappointing tone. I can understand the problems that they’re having now, especially since I’ve had to follow the Orioles for the past ten abysmal years. I know that ESPN is disappointed right now…

Any ways what’s exactly wrong with this team? They looked dead last night against the Rays. Tampa Bay finally solved Jon Lester, who threw fourteen innings without allowing an earned run against the Angels in the ALDS. The series hinges tonight on the performances of both Andy Sonnanstine and Tim Wakefield. Both pitchers are soft-tossers, however Sonnanstine’s velocity is much better than Wakefield’s on the whole. If Wakefield is off his game tonight, that could be one more coffin nail in the Red Sox’s season. Terry Francona probably has him on the shortest of leashes tonight.

In regards to the problems, the Red Sox have many more than what appears on the surface. Josh Beckett probably won’t be effective next time out, especially given his arm issues that’ll have to be addressed this off season. Lester will need to get back on track, and they’ll need another miracle from Diasuke Matsuzaka to keep their postseason hopes alive. They’re facing a hot and healthy Rays team now, and desperately need the starters to pitch well if they want to advance.

The reason why they need to pitch well is simple: the offense has been disappointing. Any hitter outside of Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia (both of whom should be given heavy AL MVP consideration) needs to step up his game. Even though the team scored eight runs on Saturday in their extra-inning loss, they’ve only mustered three in their other two games. As to why they’ve played this poorly… they have three rally-killing sink-holes in their lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz and Jason Varitek have yet to find their first hit in the ALCS. If Boston wants to advance, these three need to hit. Period.

Big Papi needs to look here to rediscover his swing. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

I read a piece this weekend in the NY Daily News, mainly about Manny Ramirez asking for a six year deal this coming Winter. I know that his services will be in demand this winter, especially after a .332, 37 HR campaign, however hopefully teams won’t go overboard for him.

If I did my math correctly and if Manny gets that six year deal he wants, he’ll be 43 at the end of the contract. In order for him to make out ahead, he’ll need to recoup at least 20MM a year for the next two years, the money that Boston was going to pay him in options if he had just remained quiet. The Dodgers agreed to drop these two options, and he’ll be a free agent on November 15th. The Dodgers will most likely offer him arbitration as well, especially since he’s a Type A free agent (or will most likely be so.) They wouldn’t mind having him back on a one year deal.

The arbitration bit will hurt Manny, since many teams who go after Ramirez won’t want to surrender the draft picks. Still an ideal situation is that we’ll have some more MLB collusion, that is the same flavor that we had back when Barry Bonds wasn’t being tendered a contract. I’d love to see Manny simply just get one year contracts, and have to watch him re-work his worth each year. However I don’t see that happening. Manny should get at least three years this year, and one team might go out on a limb and give him four.

Prediction: three years, 57MM. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Given the state of economic mess that we’re with in this country, I often wonder about how that will affect free agent paydays this Winter? Will A.J. Burnett hit his 15MM a year demand? Who will overpay and purchase this year’s Carlos Silva? Honestly I expect the purse strings to be tightened somewhat. C.C. Sabathia will still get his money, but in regards to everyone else it’s hard to tell.

In regards to what’s going on in Baltimore, a four-day organizational meeting is currently under way with all of the front office brass. Throw out the abysmal final forty games of the season, and Andy MacPhail and his staff could consider the 2008 season a success. The front office saw great strides this season, especially from young players like Adam Jones, Matt Weiters and Jeremy Guthrie. Right now the Orioles could use starting pitching, as well as some middle infield help, however they could once again have a bullpen surplus in 2009, especially with the return of 2007 closer Chris Ray.

There have been a few rumors that the Orioles would be pursing both big name free agents Mark Teixeira and Burnett. Granted the team has some cash right now, and will have some more off the books after 2009, and bringing in these two players will cost some cash. Scott Boras already has stated that Teixeria will cost 200MM over ten years, and Burnett himself will cost 15MM a year (or so he demands.) Will both of these two players address the problems that the team had in 2008, which primarily includes stopping the perenial end of year collapses?

In my opinion I’d take both. Burnett would add much needed depth to the rotation, giving some support to their ace Jeremy Guthrie. And Teixeria would fill a void at first, something that’s been missing for about ten years since Rafeal Palmerio left as a free agent years back. Playing devil’s advocate, say that both players sign onto MacPhail’s plan, Teixeria comes aboard for seven years, Burnett for five. Even though both players are from the Baltimore area, they most likely won’t take “hometown discounts” to play for the Orioles. Still even with both of them on board, how would they react if MacPhail suddenly traded Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora?

The Orioles are clearly in a rebuilding phase right now. They have a talented all-world catcher coming up however with Weiters. They are set with Nick Markakis and Jones in the outfield. And they have a tremendous amount of starting pitching in the minors that rivals very few teams. However these arms are a few years away, and that includes Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta and David Hernandez. If both Burnett and Teixeria are on board, they would have to understand that this isn’t a one year plan. I’d love to have both of these guys on board, and I could see them leading the next winning Orioles club, however it’s unlikely that either of these two players would want to be part of a rebuilding project.

In other random news from the weekend:

• Speaking of Matusz, he made his professional debut for the Orioles in the fall league, and threw three hitless innings. Matusz was the #4 overall pick in this year’s draft, and should advance swiftly through the minors, especially given the major league contract he received in August.
• In regards to other top draft picks, the #1 pick from last year’s draft David Price got his first career win during last Saturday’s postseason win against the Red Sox. He’s still looking for his first career win in the regular season, however given his talent, that shouldn’t be a problem.
• Jonothan Papelbon is the record holder for the longest streak of postseason scoreless innings, in case anyone is interested.

As we all know by now, both teams from Gotham City failed to make the playoffs. At least one New York team has been in the playoffs since 1995. So now that we know the problem, what can these two teams do to get themselves back into the postseason? For starters, both teams have cash and are entirely liquid, especially from playing in the largest media market. Both teams also have a good amount of dead cash coming off the books in November. Fixing the Mets would be a whole new story, however let’s look at fixing the Yankees. I know that they play in the toughest division in baseball, however they’re a very few number of moves away from pushing themselves back up as a dangerous force.

If I’m Brian Cashman, fixing the Yankees should involve the following three things (in no real order):

1. Improve defense.
2. Create an offense which gets on base (improve OBP.)
3. Stabalize the starting pitching.

The first two points can be done rather easily, especially if Cashman inks Mark Teixiera to a large contract, and lets Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu walk. Personally I think that Brett Gardner can handle the job in center. That .228 average might look bad, but he got white hot at the end of the season, finishing with a ten game hitting streak. And given the four outfield assists he had in such limited play, his defense would clearly be a plus. That .289 OBP of his is sure to improve.

The Yankees would be wise to keep Gardner in center, instead of pursuing Nate McClouth. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

However, the main area of concern for the Yankees going into the Winter should be their starting pitching. I’m projecting a rotation of the following:

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Chein Mein Wang
3. Mike Mussina
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Andy Pettite

Great staff on paper, and they’d still have Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Darrell Rassner available as backups. I read through Jon Heyman’s piece today, and he’s projecting two of the three to sign with the Yankees: Sabathia, Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett. Wow, that could get expensive. However, think how dangerous this team could be in 2009.

So obviously they can’t sign everyone. In that case who would walk? Mussina could go, but he stabilized their rotation in 2008, winning 20 games and pitching 200 innings. People in Baltimore are speculating that he could return home as well, and isn’t too crazy of an idea. Pettite had a down year himself, and he probably won’t get 16MM again.

In either case, adding Sabathia and Teixiera would add ten wins to the Yankees, a team that didn’t meet expectations by only winning 89 games in 2008. Adding Lowe or Burnett could push their 2009 win total over triple digits. In other words, this is how close the Yankees are to being a dangerously good team.

Any ways as usual I’ve been drinking tonight (note to casual L.I. readers, this tends to happen often here.) I made predictions last week as to who would win each Division Series. I got the Rays and Dodgers right, I got the Angels and Cubs wrong. In regards to the Phillies, the pitching is key. Brett Myers stepped up, as did Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton was huge. That’s why they won. Of course the Brewers’ mistakes helped. The Angels I thought were going to pull it out as well, however they made base-running mistakes all series. Still, as we’ve learned now facing Jon Lester in a short series is deadly. And we also saw the importance of jumping out to a 2-0 lead in a short series, since all four of the teams that did this either swept their series or won it in four.

Any ways with that stated, we have our Championship series. I still think the Dodgers are going to win the whole thing (as I’ve been saying since March.) It’ll be great to see Manny Ramirez go back and face his (supposedly maligned) teammates in Boston. I love the story that the Rays are writing now, and I’d love to see them win, however the Red Sox have too deep of a team. I’m rooting for the Dodgers to knock the Red Sox, just so I won’t have to hear the words “Nation!” and “dynasty” uttered all throughout ESPN all Winter.

Any ways back to the hot stove discussion, and in regards to the Rays, think back to the Chad Bradford trade. The Rays get him for this year and the next for 3MM. The Orioles? They get a PTBNL. As to who they would get for this, I’m not sure. Reid Brignac, I doubt it. Same goes with Jeremy Hellickson or Wade Davis. As Peter Schmuck said, they most likely won’t get their blue chip prospects here. One reader posted a comment saying how Baltimore will most likely receive Evan Longoria, since they’ll want to unload all that money he was inked to back in April. As to what the comment said:

I still think that the Rays regret giving so much money so soon to Longoria and they are trying to offload him to the Orioles as the PTBNL, but of course he didn’t clear waivers. The O’s have two major concerns with accepting him though: 1) all that guaranteed money he’s getting; and 2) they are already set at 3B with Mora. So I heard that Angelos is trying to get TB to pick up some of the guaranteed money in Longoria’s contract to take him off their hands.

Schmuck’s rebuttal was classic:

I think you’re right. The guy is totally overrated.

Hopefully Baltimore will make the same proposition to the Brewers for Ryan Braun. He also was given a good chunk of money so early into his career. Yeah I’d love to see Longoria in Baltimore, but then again pigs must fly. Maybe that’ll start happening after a few more drinks tonight…

The regular season is in the can, and a month from now the big awards will be handed out by the BWAA. We gave our predictions back in March. Revisiting those selections, we’ll compare them to who we think deserves the awards now.

NL Most Valuable Player

According to BP and PECOTA, the St. Louis Cardinals weren’t expected to be anything better than a 79 win team for 2008. However they surprised many and won 86 games. Granted due to the fact that they played in the competitive NL Central, they missed out on the playoffs. A big reason they played as well as they did was because of the season that Albert Pujols had.

I know that there will be an inclination by the BWAA to pick either Carlos Delgado or Ryan Howard. After all both players had massive home run and RBI totals. However in looking at a viable candidate for MVP, I’m going to use a good-old new age statistic: WARP, or “wins above replacement player.” Now what’s a replacement player you ask? Let me introduce Garrett Atkins:

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Replacement Player (in the Players’ Union of course.) (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Atkins had a solid year, .286, 21, 99, however thanks to a .780 OPS he was nothing more than an average player. In other words, Atkins has a WARP of 0.0. This statistic attempts to find how many wins a player would be worth to his team more than Atkins. Howard and Delgado are worth about two wins more a piece. Pujols is close to eight. The same goes with the Astros and Lance Berkman. My preseason pick MVP of David Wright (six) or Carlos Beltran (seven) would be considerably better alternatives than Delgado, and the same goes with Pat Burrell and Chase Utley instead of Howard.

I’ve been seeing so many stories which are supporting Howard, especially in the Baltimore Sun. I wanted to chime on this earlier, FJM beat me to it. Yes, Howard hits home runs, we get it. He’ll also have a 15MM payday in 2009. In the end however, you can’t ignore the season that Pujols had. At the beginning of the year, everyone expected his numbers to be down, with the anticipation that he might have surgery. He stayed healthy and was dominant. His triple-crown numbers speak for themselves: .357, 37, 116. Without him, the Cardinals would have been lost this season. Pujols is the clear pick for 2008 NL MVP.
Preseason Pick: Wright

AL Most Valuable Player

Like Pujols above, Carlos Quinten was having the kind of season where giving him the MVP was a no-brainer, that is until he got hurt in September. Now the scramble is on to find the clear-choice MVP canidate. For me I like Joe Mauer, though it’s an equal toss-up between Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia and Mauer’s teammate Justin Morneau (recipient of the 2006 MVP award.) Mauer was the AL batting champion, and brought his Twins within one game of making the playoffs. I know I picked Alex Rodriguez, and since he cannot hit in the clutch, he has no shot of winning this award.
Preseason Pick: Rodriguez

NL Cy Young

I know there are some obvious choices in the pool. Brandon Webb and his 22 wins are tough to overlook. Edison Volquez won 17 games, and Chad Billingsley also won 16, both striking out over 200 hitters. The same goes with Tim Lincecum, who compiled an incredible 18-5, 2.62 record, striking out 265 hitters in 227 innings. Not to overlook Lincecum’s performance, but I’m sticking with my preseason pick Johan Santana.

Santana won 16 games this year. He also struck out over 200 hitters, and led the majors with a 2.53 ERA. Had it not been for his spotty bullpen, he would have easily won the 22 games that Webb did. Santana deserves the NL Cy Young trophy. He did everything in his power to push the Mets into the playoffs. Even though that didn’t happen, the miraculous three-hit shutout he threw on the Saturday at the end of the season against the Marlins and Ricky Nolasco sealed the deal for me.
Preseason Pick: Santana

AL Cy Young

All Winter, I’ve been hyping Justin Verlander as a 20 game winner, ready to take the next step. Like everyone, I expected the Tigers to finish at the top of their division, not in the NL Central cellar. Any ways with Verlander finishing 2008 with a disappointing 11-17 record, I was forced to look elsewhere for finding a Cy Young pitcher. Thankfully the choice wasn’t too difficult.

Last year the majors had one 20 game winner: Josh Beckett. The American League featured three 20 game winners this year alone: Mike Mussina, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Mussina was solid, Halladay was much better, but Lee is the clear winner. No offense to the fine season that Ervin Santana had, Lee was equally as good as Santana was, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA. He started the All Star Game for the AL, and six starts into the season his ERA was 0.67. I can’t recall a season of late where a pitcher has been so dominant.
Preseason Pick: Verlander

NL Rookie of the Year

I picked Joey Votto as a toss up to win the ROY in the NL, picking him over teammate Jay Bruce. I later picked Cubs’ catcher Geovany Soto for my one fantasy team before the season started. In the end, all three rookies slugged 20 homers. However Soto had a fantastic season (.285, 23, 86), and I’m giving the award to him. Votto had better all-around numbers (.297, 24, 84) though and might be given the award in November.
Preseason Pick: Votto

AL Rookie of the Year

Back in April, I made the bold claim that Alex Gordon will be better in the end than Evan Longoria of the Rays. I could be right in the long run, I could be wrong. However in the end, Longoria had one hell of a rookie campaign: .272, 27, 85.

I did predict that Longoria will win the award, that that was with the other talented rookies in the league, including Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury stole 50 bases and had a good year. Chamberlain was very good until getting hurt, and Buchholz completely flopped. There were other good rookies in the end in the AL, such as the Royals’ Mike Aviles and Alexi Ramirez of the White Sox, but Longoria deserves the award. Many people expected him to be called up in May, so that the Rays could have an extra year of service time of him. He was brought up in early April. He was then given a long term deal, and it looks like he’ll be worth each penny of it in the long run.
Preseason Pick: Longoria

Managers of the Year

The MoTY Award is odd, and is something that many people don’t understand. As this clever post from BtBS states, the award usually goes to the managers who surprise throughout the season. Any ways for kicks, let’s give the award to Joe Madden of Tampa Bay, and Joe Torre of the Dodgers. It in the end doesn’t really matter who wins this award does it?

Executives of the Year

Again I’m not really sure how these are given out. How about we select Andrew Friedman of the Tampa Bay Rays, and Ned Colletti of the Los Angeles Dodgers? I know that Colletti isn’t very popular, but he’s done his job. And Jones wasn’t his fault.

Bad Hitters

With everything good, there are usually a few things that are bad. In regards to hitting, few could have been worse than Richie Sexson this year for the Mariners. He was paid 15.5MM in his walk year, and he hit a typical .221, 12, 36. The Yankees ultimately picked him up and let him go back in August. He’ll best be remembered for charging the mound against Kason Gabbard and the Rangers this year.

The Dodgers signed Andruw Jones to a two year deal this past winter averaging 18MM a year. His first year into the contract found him hitting an abysmal .158, 3, 14. Many people (me included) projected him to have a solid year, at least in the power department. He’ll need to turn it around in 2009, otherwise this one will look bad for Scott Boras.

Bad Pitchers

Just as there are bad hitters in baseball, there were also two horrible pitchers. In the AL, I’m hapily giving the award to Carlos Silva of the Mariners. Nicknamed “Mr. Hittable", Silva started his four year, 48MM deal off well in April (3-0, 2.79), then fell apart the rest of the way (1-15, 7.85 May on.) Ouch.

Finding someone equally as bad in the National League was tougher, but I’m giving this award to Livan Hernandez this year. He started off well with the Twins, going 6-2 through May. From June on he fell apart, and was eventually grabbed by the Rockies. He ate innings, 180 of them to be exact, and went a respectable 13-11. The 6.05 ERA was bad, the 1.67 WHIP was worse and the 257 hits he allowed is completely unacceptable. He earned 5MM plus some incentives this season, all bankrolled by the Minnesota Twins.

I know that after today’s effort by the Phillies pushing out C.C. Sabathia and the Milwaukee Brewers out of the postseason, a number of teams expected to bid on Sabathia come November expressed heavy sighs of relief for two reasons:

1. The NLDS ended in four games, not five, when Sabathia would have been trotted out in Game Five of the Series.
2. The Brewers won’t advance into the NLCS to face the Dodgers, with by that point having Sabthia throwing around 265 innings.

Sabathia only threw under four innings in game two of the series, and ends up with around 257 innings for the season. Sabathia has been used heavily the past two years, and is expected to land a contract in the six years, 150MM ballpark. In regards to the teams expected to open the checkbook for him (e.g. the Yankees), from an excellent piece today on RotoWorld by Matthew Pouliot, something to consider about the ace:

Including the postseason, Sabathia has thrown 513 innings over two years, the highest total since Randy Johnson in 2001-02. Johnson threw just 114 innings the following season. Mark Buehrle, the last AL pitcher to go over 500 innings in a two-year span in 2004-05, saw his ERA jump from 3.12 to 4.99 in 2006. Livan Hernandez also topped 500 innings in 2004-05. His ERA jumped from 3.98 in 2005 to 4.83 ERA in 2006 and hasn’t come back down since.

Personally I’m not a fan of starting pitcher abuse. I love watching young pitchers like Tim Lincecum throw, however I cringe in horror when their management (e.g. Bruce Bochy) have them throw 227 innings in a year (Matt Cain is equally abused.) Some pitchers who were abused in 2007 pitched well in 2008, for instance Roy Halladay (20-11, 2.78). Others like Aaron Harrang (6-17, 4.78) did not.

Any ways, for those fantasy owners out there… judging on our lessons learned in 2007… if it’s the fourth round and Sabathia and Lincecum are still on the board would you draft them? Personally no, I’d take a solid hitter. I’m curious to see what their numbers will be like in 2009, and wouldn’t risk anything better than a sixth round pick on these two arms. Of course I could be completely wrong here, but we’re starting to see the risk in spending high picks on drafting expensive starting pitching.

So… three and out. The Cubs are done, and the Dodgers are moving on. Again to beat the deadest of horses, I called the Dodgers the 2008 World Series champions back in March. I sounded insane back then, but in all fairness they’re currently the scariest team in the postseason. Any ways since my team was eliminated back in September, the shift of the content here has shifted towards hot stove talk. And there was some news last week about Daniel Cabrera (most of it good), and I wanted to delve further into this.

I mentioned Reed Johnson for this reason. Back in December, the Blue Jays tendered him a contract for 3.2MM. After they realized they had a surplus of outfielders (e.g. Shannon Stewart, Adam Lind, Travis Snider), they released him last Spring. The Cubs picked him up on a 1.3MM deal. His numbers: .303, 6, 50. He formed a very solid platoon with Jim Edmonds, who managed to hit 20 homers this year as part of the Cubs’ “two-headed monster.” Personally I’m a fan of Johnson. His 2006 numbers were outstanding, and I think the Jays gave up on him prematurely after an injury-riddled 2007 campaign.

Johnson should be a star in 2009, especially if Edmonds retires as many are suggesting. As I’ve been saying all along, he’s worthy of a full-time position and is capable of posting .315, 15, 75 numbers. The Cubs jumped on Johnson in a hurry and they were rewarded. So going back to the original question, who will be this 2009’s Reed Johnson?

The Cubs should be giving Johnson an increased role for 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

My vote is going towards Cabrera for this reason. Cabrera earned 2.9MM in 2008, while posting a 8-9, 5.25 record in 180 innings. He was solid in the first half, especially in April (4.14 ERA) and May (3.14 ERA.) He fell apart after that, but the potential is clearly here. His control fell apart however, and his strikeouts were way down; he averaged one strikeout per walk. Granted his work-load was heavy in 2007, and that might have contributed to this season, however many feel that Cabrera is best fit to be a middle-reliever.

My prediction: the O’s tender him a contract and then settle on a 3.5MM deal, avoiding arbitration. They could possibly release him in Spring Training, especially if the other starters that have look capable. Cabrera gives the Orioles much-needed innings out of the rotation, but the front office could supplement those innings by a well-placed free agency signing (like Braden Looper.)

I know I hyped Cabrera earlier this year as well. He’s a very talented pitcher, and is under team control until the end of the 2010 season. However until Cabrera can figure out how to improve his control, he won’t ever be the dominant starter that many people in Baltimore are hoping.

I’ve been on a roll of late, mainly since there’s been so much news that has come out of late. To start, let’s pick our ALDS and NLDS winners (for fun.) Keep in mind, I predicted a Dodgers/Tigers World Series. Also keep in mind that these are short series, consisting of only five games…

• Los Angeles over Boston in Five. The Angels won 100 games in 2008, and the last time that the teams met in August, the Angels manhandled the Nation. Of course this was right after the Mark Teixiera trade, but that’s the main point. This is a short series, and the Angels have deadly starters. When Ervin Santana is on, he’s tough. The same thing goes with John Lackey, who admittedly got roughed up at the end of the season. The Red Sox are going to throw a dangerous Jon Lester out, however they’re plagued with injuries, even with Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and Josh Beckett playing. I still like the Angels, but this is going to be a good series.
• Tampa Bay over Chicago in Four. The White Sox beat three different teams in the past three days, including the Twins last night in dramatic fashion. Their two best starters Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks won’t be available until later in the series. By that point, they could be done. James Shields is tough, but the key to the Rays win will be Scott Kazmir, who like Lackey rides into the postseason struggling heavily.
• Milwaukee over Philadelphia in Five. The Philies have a good team, but they’re facing a red-hot Milwaukee team right now. They learned their lesson when facing the Wild Card teams which carry the momentum, as the Phils were swept by the Rockies last “Rocktober.” Even though the Philies won’t have to face Ben Sheets at all, they’ll still have their hands full facing C.C. Sabathia twice. And the key to the Brewers victory is Yovani Gallardo, tonight’s Game One starter. As I’ve pointed out, he’s healthy and is just as dangerous to face as Tim Lincecum. However with him only lasting four innings (and his defense betraying him) the Brewers will now turn to Sabathia to right the ship here.
• Los Angeles over Chicago in Five. This short series could be quicker, especially if the Dodgers starters catch fire. Chad Billengsley and Derek Lowe are pitching as well as anyone right now, and the X-Factor here is Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs have a healthy Carlos Zambrano, but are hurt with injuries now, especially with Mark DeRosa. Like the Brewers, the Dodgers are playing well now and will take that momentum into and through the NLDS.

K-Rod for MVP?

I wanted to comment on this yesterday. I’ll give you a hint, it’s another stupid piece from Jon Heyman. Long story short, he made his gratuitous MVP predictions:

Overworked and soon to be overpaid. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

At least he didn’t pick Ryan Howard for the NL MVP, but the AL one will have you pulling out hair. Yeah he picked a closer, someone who did save a ton of games. BFD. Rodriguez pitched a third of the innings of Johan Santana, and he could be pitching a quarter the innings of Sabathia, depending on how far the Brewers go. Rodriguez isn’t even their team MVP, and it doesn’t make sense to give the award to a reliever (no offense, but Rodriguez is just as eligible as the MLB “holds” leader.) For some humor, here’s an excellent list of other players that would be better selections than Rodriguez.

The Brian Roberts Trade that Never Happened

In that list from above, there were three Orioles hitters in there as well: Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. All three of these guys had MVP-type season, but since they played for the Orioles, they won’t be given much consideration (the three players combined for 150 doubles!) Nonetheless, let’s take a look back at the Brian Roberts trade rumors that swirled all throughout the spring.

Going back on Memory Lane, the Orioles could have had their choice of Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, Felix Pie or Eric Patterson. Gallagher and Patterson went to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade. Cedeno only hit .269 this year, Gallagher fell apart in Oakland, Patterson didn’t play, and Pie (albeit making the Cubs’ postseason roster) only hit .241 with the big club (he did hit around .280 with 10 homers in the minors.) Still it’s clear that the value on these prospects have fallen some, though it’s still too early to gauge.

Roberts had another solid year for the O’s, hitting .296, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 40 SB and 51 2B. The irony now, Baltimore is looking to extend their second baseman past 2009, not trade him. On an aside the Cubs didn’t exactly need Roberts, though he would have been nice. The emergence of DeRosa helped (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI.)

Bad Fantasy Advice

On close, I think out of all of my fantasy teams, on average I finished about third place. Using one team as an example, the team hit .280 but pitched to an ugly 4.10 tune. I took my own advice and drafted Justin Verlander early, and it hurt.

Next year, I’ll draft good hitting early and often. Pitching can be found on waiver wires (hello Ubaldo Jimminez.)

I can’t remember how many times in the past two years where we’ve heard interjections between the Steinbrenners and either Joe Torre or Brian Cashman. I can recall the 2007 playoffs, where George Steinbrenner came out and essentially said Torre’s ass was grass unless they advance past Cleveland. That obviously didn’t happen, they were gone in the first round in 2007, and Torre ultimately took an offer to manage the Dodgers.

Yes it is ironic that Torre is now in the playoffs, and the Yankees failed to make it (for the first time since 1996 nonetheless.) The reasons why they didn’t make it in 2008 were NOT Brian Cashman’s fault.

I’m obviously writing this because the Steinbrenner brothers inked Cashman to a three year deal this evening. Cashman simply put is an outstanding GM, one of the best. I’ve always respected the work he’s done, and assembling a team with an essentially infinite budget is not as easy as it seems.

Earlier this year, Hank Steinbrenner gave the word that they’ll be spending money this offseason, and return to the true Yankee way. There’s no reason to believe that they won’t. They have over 80MM in “toxic” assets coming off the books in November. Players such as Carl Pavano, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Andy Pettite, Mike Mussina and Ivan Rodriguez are free agents. Some will return, though not at the salaries they were paid in 2007 (Mussina is a close bet to be paid the same as what he was.)

What the Yankees need to do is evaluate the free agents and see who would be the best fits. I made my suggestions, and I feel as though they should sign C.C. Sabathia (especially since they lost out on Johan Santana.) They should offer salary arbitration to all of their Type A free agents as well, and collect the supplemental draft picks that are offered to them after (and if) they leave. The team has been drafting poorly of late. This is one way to address that problem. The other way, improve international scouting.

Back in July, I honestly thought that the Yankees would be a playoff team in 2008. The reason why, it’s simple: Joba Chamberlain. It seems that once he went down, all the energy and momentum that this team had seemed to evaporate. Having young pitching is a good thing, relying on it too heavily is not. I have no doubt that Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes (who pitched very well in his last start of the season) will be solid parts of the Yankees’ rotation in the future, however Cashman should bring in a veteran starter or two to stabilize the rotation and provide competition. Chein Mein Wang is back, and Mussina and Pettite should hopefully be back as well. Pitching is crucial, and bringing in someone like Sabathia would be clearly huge here.

I honestly expect the Yankees to be back in the playoff picture in 2009. What happened to them this year was a fluke. They were be riddled with injuries, including Wang, Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez. Still they still are a solid core. A few more parts and they could be deadly. In closing I like the Cashman signing. I also like what Boston did with Theo Epstein and what the Mets did with Omar Minaya, that is by locking up each long term. It’s an interesting strategy. These GMs are under constant pressure all season long simply due to the markets that they play in. By doing these moves, hopefully some of the pressure is alleviated.

The Comeback Player of the Year Awards came out today. The winners were Cleveland’s Cliff Lee (22-3, 2.53, Cy Young possible) and Philadelphia’s Brad Lidge (41 for 41 in save opportunities, also Cy Young possible.) I realize that these two had off years in 2007, and they both are solid choices for the awards. Still, I stick with the voices that the masses are saying. The awards should have went to Carlos Quinten (36 HR) and Ryan Ludwick (37 HR), in my honest opinion.

One possible front-runner for next year’s award could be Edgar Renteria. As everyone knows by now, Renteria had an off year, especially being part of a Tigers team that was going to score “1,000 runs.” The team was slumping with their bats back in April, and so did Renteria. His option isn’t going to be picked up by the Tigers, and they’re buying out his contract for 3MM. In other words he’ll be a free agent. There’s a piece up on Roch Kubtako’s blog about what the Orioles would do, and most people in the comments suggested that they sign Renteria. I floated the comments and this idea to Tim Dierkes (the MLB Trade Rumors guy) and he responded with the following to me:

Yeah I was looking at that. Bad idea.

Baltimore tried many different shortstops in 2008: Luis Hernandez won the job in Spring Training and was the Opening Day starter. A month or so later, they gave it to Freddie Bynum. Brandon Fahey and Alex Cintron were also given chances, and the team made the late-season trade for Juan Castro, who didn’t provide the offense they needed (his glovework was albeit sound.) Baltimore needs a shortstop for 2009, someone to pair up with Brian Roberts at second. They don’t have too many minor league options, and I did suggest that Andy MacPhail would go after Orlando Cabrera. I personally feel that Renteria would be a better fit.

I’m sure that there will be many teams kicking the tires on Renteria this winter. As to what they’d offer, I’m not sure. There might be a multi-year deal passed, but Renteria might want a one year deal which he could use to reestablish his value for next winter. One year at 6MM would work, and I think MacPhail would bite at that as well. Renteria is only 33, and is one year out of a season in which he hit .332. His defensive range is declining, and his speed is for the most part gone. He still has a good bat. His .269 average last year was his lowest since 2001, and the .698 OPS is ugly. Still those are better number than all Orioles shortstops hit combined last season (Renteria also out-slugged them with his 10HR.)

I would take Renteria for one year, but not for four (e.g. Luis Castillo and his four year/24MM deal with the Mets.) Baltimore hasn’t been dealing out bad contracts of late, and a flyer on Renteria is a good move. Good budget moves include looking for players who have had success in the past. Granted it’s a roll of a dice, but it could pay off for the O’s. After all, Aubrey Huff made a case for the comeback of the year player himself. The same thing goes with the Marlins, who now have a viable trade chip in Jorge Cantu.

I know I got around late to this, but regular readers of Late Innings know that I poke fun at Kyle Lohse often. And after yesterday, I got a few emails asking me about what I thought about Kyle Lohse’s 4 year/41MM contract extension from the Cardinals (this is an extension since he technically didn’t hit free agency.) Honestly I don’t see the Cardinals getting any sort of a “bargain” here. If anything they might have overpaid.

There was a story which came out yesterday, stating that MLB home runs per game are at fifteen-year historic lows. Is this all because of the steroid issue which broke after last year’s Mitchell Report? Not sure. Torii Hunter was quoted on this issue as well. However in the end, we had low home run totals in 2008. The AL Leader was Miguel Cabrera, who only hit 37 this year. There were only two hitters in the majors who had more home runs: Adam Dunn (who hit 40 between the Reds and Diamondbacks) and Ryan Howard (who hit 48, I’ll talk more on him later this week.) Hitting was down this year, slugging was down. What was up? Simple, it was pitching.

In 2007, we only had one starting pitcher who ended up with a (qualifying) ERA under 3.00, and that was Jake Peavy. This year, we had seven. It seemed that many pitchers this year had career years, including Lohse, who ended up a solid 15 wins and a 3.78 ERA. Lohse always had good stuff, however at times he is far too hittable. He still projects to a number #3 starter, however being behind Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright in next year’s rotation, this should fit well for him. The one thing that Lohse has going for him is his durability, and Lohse is a little bit better than just an “innings eater.”

I poked fun at Lohse last year since he was seeking a contract very similar to the one that Carlos Silva got from the Mariners (4 years/48MM.) In hindsight, this was a terrible move by the Mariners (he went 4-15, 6.46), and any team that would have gave that money to Lohse would have had buyer’s remorse. The Phillies offered Lohse 3 years/21MM, which he and (his agent) Scott Boras scoffed at. In the end, he settled on a one year 4.5MM deal with the Cardinals. All during the season, we heard remarks that Lohse was going to go for the highest bidder come free agency. However in the end, it was Lohse who asked the Cardinals to begin talks for an extension.

Lohse read the market. He saw the resurgence in pitching. He was right in doing this; his value probably couldn’t be any higher. Pitching is back in baseball, and this should impact the cost of starting pitching in free agency. Yes we know that C.C. Sabathia will most likely get 20MM per year this winter, however will teams spend in excess of 12MM per year on someone like Jon Garland, when they can surely get the innings (and quality) at a much cheaper price?

I’m not sure how this news will impact other free agent starters. Everyone thought it was certain that Oliver Perez would be a 15MM to 18MM pitcher this year, even coming off an off year where he only won ten games. However that doesn’t seem as likely. The same thing goes with A.J. Burnett. The Jays have reportedly offered him a four year, 54MM contract (nullifying the remaining two years, 24MM on his current deal. On an aside, I was close when I guessed that he’d get 51MM over four years.) If Burnett (who won 18 games in 2008) wants to stay in Toronto, he’ll take the offer. I honestly think he’ll do the same. Other people (like Rosenthal) think that Burnett wants to hit the open market, where he could get 18MM-20MM per year with the New York teams bidding.

I think the Jays’ offer is very fair, especially in comparison to the Lohse contract. Kyle Lohse set the market with this deal yesterday, and this will be used as the barometer for signing the remaining free agent starters. As a prediction: I think the starters are going to sign for far less than many people are expecting.

Lohse got something it took him a year to get: job security. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

Earlier in the year before the season started, I predicted that the Los Angeles Dodgers would represent the National League in this year’s Fall Classic, defeating the Tigers in just five games. I was partially right here, especially with the Tigers being eliminated from contention a few weeks ago (in all fairness, there were many people who expected the Tigers to be a World Series team.) The Dodgers are going to the postseason, and have been playing solid baseball, especially with Manny Ramirez (.333, 37, 121) being on the tear that he is. After the season’s over however, Ned Colletti and the rest of the management will have their hands cut out for them.

Long story short, the Dodgers have to pay this dipshit.

As of today, going by the players that are on their payroll, the Dodgers rank seventh in team payroll, at just over 118MM (a summation of the player salaries on the forty man roster.) Ten days after the World Series is over, a substantial amount of this will be off the books. Looking at this list:

• Manny Ramirez (OF) - 20MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Rafeal Furcal (IF) - 16MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Greg Maddux (SP) - 10MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Nomar Garciaparra (IF) - 9.5MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Brad Penny (SP) - 9.25MM in ‘08 - Free Agent (9.5MM club option likely to be declined)
• Jeff Kent (IF) - 9MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Joe Beimel (RP) - 1.9MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Angel Berroa (IF) - 4.75MM in ‘08 - Free Agent (5.5MM option likely to be declined)
• Casey Blake (IF) - 6.1MM in ‘08 - Free Agent
• Derek Lowe (SP) - 10MM in ‘08 - Free Agent

That’s a substantial amount of money coming off the books, equally as much as the Yankees have coming off the books this Winter. Will this attribute a spending spree for the Dodgers in 2009? Highly unlikely.

The Dodgers still have a few “toxic” contracts on the books now; these include Jason Schmidt (15.5MM in ‘09), Juan Pierre (28.5MM owed between ‘09 and ‘11) and Andruw Jones (15MM in ‘09, plus part of the remaining 12.2 signing bonus.) Once they’re gone, the team should hopefully be more liquid in the future (there have been rumors of them having cash problems.)

First things first, the team needs to resign Blake (even with him being 35.) They gave up a good deal for him, notably potential star catcher Carlos Santana. In addition to him, they need to get Ramirez under contract as well. They’re dropping the pair of 20MM options that he has over the next two years, and will offer him arbitration. Personally, I don’t see him getting 20MM again. He’s alienated a good number of his suitors with his play in Boston, and the arbitration issue is another hurdle to get around, since Ramirez is a Type-A free agent according to Elias. I see both of these two getting signed for something around 25MM to 30MM next season.

Furcal is another must-have, but he’s by no means a 16MM per year infielder (I questioned the contract right after he left Atlanta.) Let’s say he’ll make 12MM in ‘08. Penny and Maddux are gone, and I see Colletti going after another starting pitcher, especially if Lowe (14-11, 3.24) gets too expensive. I see the Dodgers spending 50MM for free agents on next year’s team. In addition to this, they’ll have to pay Andre Ethier (.301, 20, 76) and Russell Martin (.281, 13, 69), two players about to hit super-two status in regards to arbitration. The money saved after the above “toxic” contracts are off the books will pay the arbitration raises that will be given to James Loney (.292, 13, 90), Matt Kemp (.292, 18, 76), Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.17, 199K) and Jonathan Broxton (3.13, 14S, 88K.) This group (plus Ethier and Martin) could get very expensive after 2009.

After the Dodgers get the bad contracts off the books, they’ll be in a much better position. Personally I think they have a great team now, a terrific blend of veteran presence with young talent. And they have many more internal options ready to replace those about to leave this offseason (Blake DeWitt or Delwyn Young could replace Kent, who’s most likely to retire.) If Colletti would manage the team’s finances better starting this offseason, the Dodgers could be in midst of a good run of excellence, much like the one that Tampa Bay is experiencing now.

Wow, thanks to the Orioles and their shitty September play, I’m now an alcoholic. I actually came up with a new drink which I’ve called “The Jamie Walker“. Ironically it has no Johnnie Walker, but it has a strong shot of whiskey in it. When watching the Orioles play, if you ever want to make a “Jamie Walker” do the following:

1. Take a bottle of Miller Lite.
2. Pour in a shot of Chivas Regal.

Bam motherfucker! Before you know it, after a few of these you’ll be watching good baseball, regardless of whether you’re watching the Cubs or the Nationals. And on the good side, you’ll be going through fewer cases of beer. Speaking of good baseball… I’m watching the Brewers and the Pirates play right now. At any other point of the season, this game would be a yawn-fest, however it’s a good one tonight.

So the Brewers made the oddball move and decided to start Yovani Gallardo. I honestly thought he’d be in the bullpen, but then again these are the Brewers. They’re tied at 1 with the Pirates in the eighth. Meanwhile, the Cubs are tied with the Mets in extra innings. The Astros are also winning, but after tonight should have zero chance of making the playoffs whatsoever. The Philies are off.

On an aside Gallardo looked rock solid. He struck out six of his first seven, and pitched four innings of one-run ball. That’s exactly what the Brewers were expecting. So now they can put Ben Sheets and his crutches on the mound on Friday, C.C. Sabathia pitching on two days rest on Saturday, and have Cal Eldred come out of retirement to pitch the finale on Sunday in that final crucial series against the Cubs. Yes these are the Brewers. They do good, choke, then do good again. And for some reason I still see none of these teams making the playoffs.

I wish I had a healthy Gallardo on my fantasy team, at least one of them (I think my best team will finish fifth this season in the one CBS Sportsline league I’m in.) My strategy year in and year out is draft starters early and often. Good hitting can be found on the waiver wire as the season progresses. I’m partially right. On average my teams were hitting .280 (good), but we were pitching to an ERA of 4.20 (bad) with a WHIP of 1.40 (worse.) I’ll try to get a new strategy for next year, however I’m a huge fan of Gallardo.

Earlier on this season, I said that Gallardo would post similar numbers to Tim Lincecum. Does that mean that Gallardo’d have 17 wins, a 2.60 ERA, chance at Cy Young, dead arm and case to file a claim of abuse on his manager like Lincecum does? Not exactly. However if healthy, he’s good. He’s very good.

A healthy Gallardo will mitigate the blow of Sabathia and Sheets leaving as free agents this offseason. He’s got ace potential. Seriously. If you’d take his 2008 numbers (over 4 starts) and pattern them across a full-season’s worth of starts (35 starts), you’d have the following line: 0-0 record, 1.88 ERA, 175 strikeouts in 210 innings, with a solid 1.25 WHIP.

(Note to Late Innings readers: the author is currently wasted.)

Soon to crack the Brewers rotation: Yanni Gallardo.

Most people who know me know that I stress the importance of effective starting pitching. Effective starting pitching is defined as finding the perfect midpoint where both the starters and the relievers are not overworked. A manager who pulls his starter too early could face bullpen struggles, and the same issues could exist if a manager leaves his starter in too long. I’m not saying that a starter should throw a complete game each time out (the era of Jack Morris and Dennis Martinez is past), but a starter should get the game deep enough so that a refreshed bullpen can finish off the job.

So where does that happy medium exist? For me it’s looking at the bullpen and their total innings. A good bullpen should total up around four hundred innings over the course of a season. Assuming that all 162 games are nine-inning games, that patterns out to six and a half innings per start for eacb starting pitcher, which likewise comes out to just over 200 innings for each of the five starters.

I know that’s an ideal (if not theoretical in today’s age) number, but the best bullpens in the majors stay around this figure. There are two schools of thought that continually fail. One is having a special bullpen committee, where each reliever has his own set role from the sixth innings on. The second school of thought is overworked starters. Personally I’ve been seeing the later rule applied more of late.

Why did Bruce Bochy leave Tim Lincecum in for 138 pitches in this complete game? The same goes for Ned Yost letting C.C. Sabathia throw this meaningless complete game against the Astros. Bochy is notorious for abusing his starters as well, just ask fellow teammate Matt Cain. Cain and Lincecum are the cornerstones for the rotation of a winning Giants team, but wearing them down now is a huge mistake (maybe Lincecum should consider a multi-year contract offer?)

In regards to overworked pitchers and free agents, one clearly has to think back to the massive Kevin Brown contract, the 105MM over seven years. At the time he was in his thirties, and that contract was viewed as a mistake the minute it was known. Nonetheless, two years into his contract, Brown fell apart and never lived up to the value.

With that said, here are five free agent pitchers due for implosions. In other words, these are “buyer beware” for any bidding team.

1. C.C. Sabathia. Admittedly, Sabathia looked sharp last night, albeit pitching on just three days rest. He struck out eleven in seven against the Pirates, and the Brewers are now tied for the NL Wild Card lead with the Mets. Sabathia already has over 240 innings thrown this season, and if the season comes down to the final game on Sunday, you can be certain that the Brewers will trot C.C. out one last time this season to make that start.

   If the Brewers make the playoffs, that’s only more innings that the big starter will be throwing this season. For a man of Sabathia’s size, he’s thrown a good number of pitches over the past threw years, and has taken his share of abuse. His new team will have to take that into consideration when signing him this offseason. Granted C.C. has stated that he wants to pitch in the NL, but he’ll probably take all offers into consideration (having thirty teams bidding for your services is better than having sixteen.) In either case, Sabathia will get a deal containing at least seven years. It’s tough to pinpoint where (and if) he’ll breakdown during the contract.

2. A.J. Burnett. Likewise with Sabathia, Burnett will (most-likely) hit the free agent market this offseason, thanks to a hidden out-clause he had put into his five year/55MM deal he signed three years ago. He’ll most-likely be seeking a raise from his 11MM salary, and something past the 12MM that Carlos Silva gets per year from the Mariners. I’m seeing something between 13MM and 15MM over four years.

   Burnett’s ERA was high in the middle of the year, but it’s been dropping of late. He’s going to finish the season at 18 wins, and he could have easily won 20. He’s still a reliable pitcher, but has been allowing more baserunners than he has in the past. Burnett’s a solid pitcher, but is injury-prone and starting to decline. He’s not an ace, and the Blue Jays should be careful. Even though they’re going to be without Shaun Marcum for 2009, offering anything over 15MM per season would be a large mistake.

3. Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod shattered the single-season saves record, and like Sabathia has been overworked in Los Angeles. I’m sure the Angels will offer him arbitration (they wouldn’t mind having him back at a one year deal), and that should limit his potential suitors. Rodriguez will be seeking something larger than what Francisco Cordero got from the Reds last year. Yes, there will be a team that will overpay for an abused reliever, someone who’s bound to lose his effectiveness in media res of the contract.

   With every passing day, Brian Fuentes is looking like the best closing option in the market. He could now get 10MM per year, and his arm is fresh. I know the Rockies are planning on offering him arbitration as well. Still, that won’t stop any team from paying handsomely for his services this winter.

4. Ben Sheets. Sheets has the best stuff of any pitcher on the market this year. He’s also the most fragile. I could see him in Yankee pinstripes this winter, I could also see him elsewhere. Due to the health issues, I don’t see a team going beyone three years on the contract. He started the All Star game, and will get 15MM per year. It’s definitely a roll of a dice here for whomever signs him. Still, looking at the bad side of the coin, Sheets reminds me of an even more-fragile version of Jason Schmidt, who got a 3 year/47MM deal from the Dodgers two years back.
   

   Schmidt is currently making 410K per out with the Dodgers.

5. Jon Garland. He’s currently a 14 game winner, but then again he’s pitching for the talented Angels, so his win total would be lessened on another team. However he currently spots an ugly 4.80 ERA. For the early part of his career with the White Sox, he was a .500 pitcher, then won 18 games twice, then went back down to mediocrity. If you look at his 162 game averages, he’s 13-11 with a 4.45 ERA in 210 innings.

   He’s only 29, but his numbers have taken a sharp decline since his stellar 2005 season, where he threw close to 240 innings in the team’s championship season. Like Silva, he doesn’t record too many strikeouts and gives up over 10 hits per nine frames. Silva got 12MM last winter from the Mariners, so what will Garland get? RotoWorld projects him to land in Baltimore with a five year, 60MM deal. I hope that doesn’t happen, and I’m sure Andy MacPhail won’t overpay like that. Three years at 10MM per year is fair market value in my books.

If the Orioles would end their seasons at the end of July, on paper they’d look like a solid baseball team. However they’re playing in September, and as usual they can’t find a way to win games. Until they find a way to win in this month, they’ll never be a championship ball club.

Currently, Baltimore is an abysmal 4-17 in September of 2008. I know that they have a tough schedule this month, playing mostly competitive teams in the AL East looking for playoff spots, however they haven’t won a series in two months. There was no excuse for them being swept by a reeling Oakland ball club at the beginning of the month in Baltimore.

Last night I honestly thought they were going to win. They took a lead into the eighth inning, only to watch Jamie Walker implode and open the floodgates, leading to another Orioles loss. That led to an evening of heavy drinking… after about a half of a case of Heineken, I conducted my own AL Rookie of the Year voting. These are my drunken results:

• T. Teagarden - TEX (6)
• A. Simon - BAL (1)
• J. Lowrie - BOS
• E. Longoria - TAM

I understand that Longoria has 26 homers and didn’t get a single first-place vote in my mock poll, but I was too drunk to care. I did manage to give a first place vote to Alfredo Simon however… (on an aside, I really think Teagarden is going to be an amazing catcher in the future.)

On an aside, I was listening to the game last night, and before throwing the radio out the window, I was happy to hear that Simon was pitching very well. After all he did something that most Orioles starters haven’t done recently, pitched past the seventh inning:

He was pitching in the 90s with great movement. As most people pointed out, his pitching last night looked like something very similar to a former Orioles ace: Rodrigo Lopez. Like Simon, Lopez was discovered while pitching in the Mexican League. He made his Orioles debut, and as a rookie won 15 games in 2002 (finishing second in the ROY voting.) He won 15 games in two of the next three years. However his ERA rose, and he ultimately went back to the Mexican League to pitch.

There aren’t too many Mexican League pitchers who’ve made it in the majors, however there are a few that should be noted. Grated there’s Lopez. There’s also Francisco Cordova, who’s best known for throwing a combined ten-inning no-hitter against the Astros with fellow-countryman Ricardo Rincon (he did this back when Jon Lieber was pitching for the Pirates.) If there’s any similarities between all these pitchers, it’s that they’ll give the clubs three or so solid years. After that they’re out of the majors.

Simon looked good last night, even against a Tampa Bay team bereft of its regulars. His start could help him be a dark-horse candidate to be in Baltimore’s rotation in 2009. After all, what are the options. Rahdames Liz has great stuff, and seemed to get it together after going back to Norfolk, and the same goes with Garrett Olsen. Chris Waters has been reliable, but only has fourth-starter ceiling. Jeremy Guthrie is the ace, and the team should non-tender Daniel Cabrera, even with them having him under control for two more years. Yes, Baltimore needs a veteran starter to stabilize this rotation mess, but I hope that they won’t spend in excess of 10MM per year on a veteran. And yes RotoWorld, this includes Jon Garland.

With one week left in the season, I wanted to extend my congratulations to Tampa Bay. If they sweep the four game set against Baltimore, and Boston gets swept by Cleveland in their three game series, the Rays will win the AL East. Granted I know that this could be done in Baltimore, and even though it’s unlikely, if it happens I’ll applaud the Rays. If there’s anyone here that should be commended, it’s their fans. They had to suffer through ten years of .400 baseball, being the laughing stock of the AL East. I remember once when some reporter from USA Today referred to the team as the F-Rays (instead of the D-Rays), giving them a failing grade. As a fan, watching this kind of performance is tough to endure (hence me and the Orioles.)

If there’s any other winners with this feel-good story, it’s Baseball Prospectus. This past Winter, they wrote a piece projecting the Rays as an 87 win team for 2008. They were right about the decline of the White Sox in 2007, and they used the same PECOTA mesaures (the algorithm) to project the team’s win totals. I wrote a piece to counter this, saying that Tampa is only a 75 win team. In either case that’s a twenty percent improvement on their 2007 win total. Any ways in either case, the Rays are currently a 92 win team. If they sweep their four-game series in Baltimore, they’re at 96 wins. Being generous, let’s say that Tampa finishes with 95 wins. That’s a 35 win improvement from the year before.

My reasoning with why I thought Tampa would be a 15 win improvement: I expected a ten-win improvement from solid seasons from Matt Garza and James Shields, as well as Scott Kazmir. I expected Evan Longoria’s bat and defensive help (with the addition of Jason Bartlett) to add the additional five wins. Where I was wrong and BP was right:

• The Rays’ defensive is one of the best in the majors. They have the best defensive infield in baseball.
• The team’s relief corps, led by Grant Balfour, Jason Hammel, Troy Percival and Dan Wheeler have been outstanding.
• Longoria has clearly brought the team more than three wins all by himself.
• The backend of the rotation (Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson) have been surprisingly servicable.

And of course to make matters better, the David Price era has arrived. He makes his first career start this evening against Baltimore, and currently spots a solid 3.00 ERA in six relief innings.

A Run of Excellence

So now that we know how good the Rays are, the next question must be asked, that is how long can their magical run go. Unlike their division rivals Boston and New York, the Rays don’t have an open-ended payroll. Stuart Sternberg and Co. might open the purse strings a little more for Andrew Friedman (who has done a spectacular job with operations), but we can’t expect the team’s payroll to climb past 60MM in the future (given the market that the team plays in.) They’ll need that extra flexibility to sign their other starts not locked up, such as Garza and Price, both of whom could be seeing solid paydays once they hit arbitration.

The Rays can’t be dependent on receiving high draft picks anymore as well. Granted they nabbed Tim Beckham with the first pick this year, however they can’t be relying on that anytime in the future. One option is to select first-round talent that slips down to the later round, like the Yankees, Red Sox and Royals did this year (the Royals took Tim Melville, who fell down to the fourth round this year.) The other option is to increase international scouting, especially overseas in Japan. Personally they’re doing a solid job with their talent scouting.

Am I suggesting that the Rays are due for a falloff in four years? Not exactly. However Friedman will have to operate this team like Billy Beane does in Oakland, or how Bill Smith does with the Twins. The Rays will need to stay young and competitive, and make the key trade whenever they see fit to do so. And if a full-blown rebuilding is needed, so be it (ask Oakland.) The AL East is the toughest of divisions to play in, especially when the other four teams are being run by excellent general managers. Still, I’m impressed with Friedman and I don’t have any doubt in his confidence and leadership. There’s no sense in looking into the future this early. The Rays are going to the playoffs. They should pop that cap and enjoy every minute of that champagne, they deserve it.

So here we are in September, and the Orioles are playing baseball like they do every September of late: poorly. As of now, they have yet to win a game this month. They’ve lost eight in a row (that make up game from April against the White Sox does not count), and nine of their last ten. Things are falling apart for them, especially with reliever Jim Johnson now shut down for the season. The hitting is now ice cold, and the starting pitching is unbearable to watch. I’m not sure what precipitated this piece. I was going to write something about this earlier, but then I read the MLBTR piece on this. In either case Andy MacPhail will have another busy offseason this winter.

In the good news, MacPhail will have some cash coming off the books after this season is over. Kevin Millar and his 3MM salary will most likely be gone, and the same goes with Jay Payton and his 5MM salary for 2008. Chad Bradford and his 3MM salary were traded to the Tampa Bay Rays earlier. That’s a good amount of money freed up, however MacPhail will have to pay his two arbitration eligible outfielders Nick Markakis and Luke Scott. Scott is a super-two player, and after hitting 20 HR this year, his salary should be around 2.5MM in 2009. Markakis’ salary should jump ten-fold to the 4.5MM range. George Sherrill is also eligible for salary arbitration, and he could have a Kevin Gregg-type salary (2.5MM) after saving 31 games this year. Thankfully Jeremy Guthrie can be still kept at the minimum for one more year, though he’ll require a small raise from his 780K he made this year (thanks to the major league deal he signed back with Cleveland.)

I’m expecting a payroll of 65MM in 2008 for the Orioles. There are a good number of players that can be moved. A couple in particular:

• Ramon Hernandez. Hernandez is set to make 8MM in 2009, and won’t be a free agent until the end of 2009. He’s on pace for 17 HR in 2008, and that’s with a good chunk of time missed due to an injury to start the season. Hernandez can most likely be had for cheap, though MacPhail will probably require that the buyer take on all of Hernandez’ salary. Part of me thinks that the front office is ready to hand over the pitching staff to Matt Wieters.
• Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera has been ineffective of late, and part of that is due to an injury. He’s a candidate to be shut down for the rest of the season. At 2.8MM in 2008, and being arbitration eligible through 2010, he’s most likely to be moved, however MacPhail would be selling low here. Cabrera would most likely be best-suited to be a middle reliever now, given his poor control problems.
  

  Cabrera will finish another disappointing season 8-9, 5.26. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
• Jamie Walker, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff. Any of the other veterans can be had for cheap. The later two had great seasons in 2008. And of course, the Brian Roberts saga could continue into next March.

Dave Trembley did a great job managing what he has. He’s running a solid bullpen, and the team can hit. The rotation has been a disaster, but he’s working the best with what he has. People have questioned whether the team should spend 5MM on an innings-eater. Personally it’s a needed move. On hindsight, Kyle Lohse looks like he would have been a great fit, and budget signings don’t work here (e.g. Steve Trachsel.) It’s foolish to expect young pitchers to be able to throw 1,000 innings for a whole season, given their inexperience. On a plus, the young pitching is coming, just ask their Double-A staff.

In short, the Orioles need an innings-eater and a middle-infielder to plug the holes. And they’ll need to see what they can do about the possible openings in their corner infield. The bullpen should be great in 2009, especially with Chris Ray coming back to close, and Sherrill and Johnson being able to take on more stable roles as set-up men. And I’m curious to see the role that Lou Montanez will play for the team in 2009, especially being the Eastern League MVP. MacPhail should start seeing what he can get via trades. I don’t expect him to match up with last year’s hauls, but it’s clear that it doesn’t hurt to get younger and cheaper.

Every year for kicks, I pick thirty five players who are about to become free agents and project where they would land for the following season. In all fairness, I expect to get about 50% of the destinations correct, however I’m usually dead on in regards to the money. The contracts that I’m projecting for these players will feature 1.15B in guaranteed money, with the average yearly salary for each player being at just over 12MM per year. Any ways let’s get started.

The Trophy Winners

During the Winter of 2007, two nine-figure contracts were handed out to players; 151MM by the Mets to Johan Santana, and 153MM to Miguel Cabrera from the Tigers. Likewise with this year, there will be a pair of 100MM contracts handed out as well, one going to first baseman Mark Teixiera and the other going to starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia.

The Angels didn’t give up a good deal to land Teixiera this summer, however it cost them their starting first baseman Casey Kotchman. I honestly expect Tony Reagins to present Teixiera with a very compelling offer, and I honestly expect him to stay. Angels teammates have been lobbying for the management to resign Teixiera (e.g. Torii Hunter), and their efforts will most likely work. I don’t see Teixiera receiving the 230MM guaranteed that his agent Scott Boras wants, but he’ll receive a solid deal in the end.

The other upper-end free agent this year is Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia. Milwaukee can’t resign him, but it’s to their advantage to offer him arbitration, since they’d definitely take him in on a one-year deal if need be (in the ballpark of 20MM.) However the likelihood of that happening is slim. Sabathia will receive his share of multi-year deals this Winter, and none will trump the offer that the Yankees will offer him. Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman will have over 80MM of money coming off the books this Winter, and that will be plenty to bring in Sabathia, a true ace that the Yankees need in order to compete with the other top teams in the American League.

• Player: Mark Teixiera
• Team: Los Angeles Angels
• Contract: 8 years, 165MM
• Average Salary: 20.625MM/year

• Player: C.C. Sabathia
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 7 years, 143MM
• Average Salary: 20.43MM/year

The Evil-Empire

Since we’ve mentioned the Yankees and all the money coming off the books for them, they will have plenty of room for spending. One area to fix is veteran starting pitching. They’ll have Sabathia, and it wouldn’t hurt for them to bring back veteran starters Andy Pettite and Mike Mussina. Both will be brought back, however it’s highly unlikely that they’ll give Pettite 16MM again this time. They’ll also do the same with first baseman Jason Giambi. Giambi has a 22MM option, with a 5MM buyout. The Yankees can save 10MM by buying out his contract, and bringing him back at a market-rate salary. They will also bring back outfielder Bobby Abreu, likewise at a reduced rate.

• Player: Mike Mussina
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 2 years, 23MM
• Average Salary: 11.5MM/year

• Player: Andy Pettite
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 1 year, 12.5MM
• Average Salary: 12.5MM/year

• Player: Jason Giambi
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 1 year, 7MM
• Average Salary: 7MM/year

• Player: Bobby Abreu
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 2 years, 25MM
• Average Salary: 12.5MM

The team’s biggest weakness this year has been its inconsistent offense. As many have pointed, Alex Rodriguez has been hitting poorly this year in the clutch, hitting .250 on the season. The team needs power in the outfield, with Melky Cabrera not exactly an option, and Adam Dunn would be an excellent fit. And I also see the Yankees bringing in Milton Bradley to be their DH. The Yankees should win the bidding here with Bradley, since they’d be one of the few teams who would offer a multi-year deal to Bradley.

• Player: Adam Dunn
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 4 years, 57MM
• Average Salary: 14.25MM/year

• Player: Milton Bradley
• Team: New York Yankees
• Contract: 3 years, 32MM
• Average Salary: 10.67MM/year

The Yankees will avoid Carl Pavano like the plague this winter. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Spelling Relief

This year, a good number of closers are on the free agent market, with the most prominent being the Angels’ Francisco Rodriguez. The Angels would love to bring him back, however not at the salary he’s seeking. Given reports that Rodriguez’s velocity has been dipping, the Angels would most likely be better off using in-house options for next season in the ninth inning. So any ways, which team will land K-Rod? It’s easy, the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee (Bob Melvin in particular) has shown interest in spending heavily on closers. They did offer Francisco Cordero four years, however so did the Reds. In the end, they went with their Plan B, which was a one year deal, 10MM to Eric Gagne. They’ll pay for Rodriguez, but he won’t get 15MM per year like everyone’s expecting.

• Player: Francisco Rodriguez
• Team: Milwaukee Brewers
• Contract: 4 years, 53MM
• Average Salary: 13.25MM/year

Two other pitchers who would prefer to close are the Rockies’ Brian Fuentes, and the Diamondbacks’ Brandon Lyon. Fuentes will be offered arbitration by the Rockies, but I do see Mark Shapiro offering Fuentes a (modest) three-year deal to be the team’s closer. He paid for Joe Borowski, and he’s not afraid to pay for closing. Fuentes would be a far more affordable option than Rodgiguez, and would be an ideal fit to fix a rough bullpen for the Cleveland Indians.

• Player: Brian Fuentes
• Team: Cleveland Indians
• Contract: 3 years, 19MM
• Average Salary: 6.33MM/year

Lyon is an interesting pitcher himself. He’s having a good season, however of late has hit a rough spot. I actually do see the Diamondbacks offering him arbitration, since they wouldn’t mind having him back on a one year deal. However Jon Rauch is their closer, and Lyon would prefer to close. The team that would be his best fit? Simple, it’s the Texas Rangers. C.J. Wilson will be part of a deep bullpen for the Rangers in 2009 as well.

• Player: Brandon Lyon
• Team: Texas Rangers
• Contract: 3 years, 25MM
• Average Salary: 8.33MM/year

Other Big Winners this Off-Season

There are other solid free agents in this class, however the liklihood of any player receiving guaranteed money over 60MM (whose name is not Sabathia or Teixiera) is slim. Ben Sheets however is going to command a good salary. The starting pitcher for the NL in this year’s All Star game is talented, yet fragile. I don’t see any team going over three years for him, and he should essentially get the same money that Jason Schmidt got two years ago from the Dodgers. I see the Astros brining in Sheets for three years, much to the applause of their players. The team might not have the payroll flexibility that the Yankees has, but they’ll make room for him.

The Mets will be busy this winter, and one need they have is a corner outfield spot. Moises Alou is going to be off the books, and what better player they can obtain than Raul Ibanez from the Mariners. Seattle will offer him arbitration, and he will cost the Mets a couple of draft picks in the 2009 draft (their first rounder and a sandwich pick.) Still for four years, he’ll be worth every penny, and will be pleasing for Mets fans. They will also bring back Oliver Perez (yes a Boras client), and Carlos Delgado’s 12MM option for 2009? Yes, it will be optioned.

• Player: Ben Sheets
• Team: Houston Astros
• Contract: 3 years, 46.5MM
• Average Salary: 15.5MM/year

• Player: Raul Ibanez
• Team: New York Mets
• Contract: 4 years, 46MM
• Average Salary: 11.5MM/year

• Player: Oliver Perez
• Team: New York Mets
• Contract: 4 years, 44.5MM
• Average Salary: 11.125MM/year

The Re-Signees

Has Manny been Manny for the Dodgers? Not quite. But their offense needs Manny Ramirez and they will retain him. He won’t get 100MM like some people fear, but he will be compensated. The same goes with Casey Blake. Blake isn’t a 10MM per year player, but he’ll get a multi-year deal from the Dodgers. They need Blake, especially since they dealt Andy LaRoche to the Pirates in July. And the other Blake, that is Blake DeWitt, should be the team’s second baseman in 2009.

• Player: Manny Ramirez
• Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
• Contract: 3 years, 58MM
• Average Salary: 19.33MM/year

• Player: Casey Blake
• Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
• Contract: 3 years, 25MM
• Average Salary: 8.33MM/year

The Cubs are on pace to win 100 games in 2008, and they’ve done it with Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood. Both will be retained long-term by Jim Hendry and the management.

• Player: Ryan Dempster
• Team: Chicago Cubs
• Contract: 3 years, 36MM
• Average Salary: 12MM/year

• Player: Kerry Wood
• Team: Chicago Cubs
• Contract: 2 years, 13MM
• Average Salary: 6.5MM/year

The Phillies can retain Pat Burrell affordably, however he won’t get the money that Dunn will get. And in regards to two more free agents, the Red Sox will bring back catcher Jason Varitek and the Diamondbacks will retain Randy Johnson. And Greg Maddux, he’ll get the perpetual 10MM one-year deal, this time coming from the Atlanta Braves.

• Player: Pat Burrell
• Team: Philadelphia Phillies
• Contract: 3 years, 39.5MM
• Average Salary: 13.17MM/year

• Player: Jason Varitek
• Team: Red Sox
• Contract: 1 year, 10MM
• Average Salary: 10MM/year

• Player: Randy Johnson
• Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
• Contract: 1 year, 12.5MM
• Average Salary: 12.5MM/year

• Player: Greg Maddux
• Team: Atlanta Braves
• Contract: 1 year, 10MM
• Average Salary: 10MM/year

He who opts out…

…gets a big contract? Yes A.J. Burnett can be a free agent if he wants, electing out of his 5 year, 55MM contract he signed with the Blue Jays a couple years ago. He’s a dark horse for 20 wins, and is striking out over nine per inning. However is ERA is uncharacteristically high, as is his WHIP. The Reds have money to spend apparently, and I honestly see them putting up the cash for Burnett. He should get another four year deal.

• Player: A.J. Burnett
• Team: Cincinnati Reds
• Contract: 4 years, 51MM
• Average Salary: 12.75MM/year

The Blue Jays will be without a pitcher, but they will find a way to land Ivan Rodriguez in Toronto to be their catcher. He will get a modest multi-year deal.

• Player: Ivan Rodriguez
• Team: Toronto Blue Jays
• Contract: 2 years, 18MM
• Average Salary: 9MM/year

Speaking of the Reds again, they apparently want to spend some money, and a solid outfielder they could obtain is Juan Rivera of the Angels. Remember, he’s only two years out of a 23 HR season, and being fully healthy, would be a viable option in the lower part of the lineup for the Reds.

• Player: Juan Rivera
• Team: Cincinnati Reds
• Contract: 2 years, 11MM
• Average Salary: 5.5MM/year

Buyer beware? Burnett has a 1.41 WHIP this year. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn)

The .500 Pitchers

There is a trio of solid #3, #4 starters on the market. On average, they will win between 11-15 games per year, and pitch to an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. Jon Garland would be one pitcher to move and I see him going to the Braves to stabilize a weak rotation. Derek Lowe is another pitcher in demand, and I see the Dodgers and Red Sox bidding for him, however in the end he will most likely back home this winter. The Dodgers will settle on Braden Looper, who admittedly has developed into a solid starter for the Cardinals. The three year deal, 13.5MM he signed back in 2005 to be Jason Isringhausen’s set up man looks like a bargain in retrospect.

• Player: Jon Garland
• Team: Atlanta Braves
• Contract: 3 years, 32MM
• Average Salary: 10.67MM/year

• Player: Derek Lowe
• Team: Boston Red Sox
• Contract: 3 years, 29MM
• Average Salary: 9.67MM/year

• Player: Braden Looper
• Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
• Contract: 3 years, 27MM
• Average Salary: 9MM/year

The Middle Infield Market

There are a good number of middle infielders on the market this year. Rafeal Furcal should be a Dodger, and I see him re-signing with the team (unsure of the contract personally.) However three players that are the major names in the market outside of Furcal are Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera and Mark Ellis.

The Diamondbacks need a second baseman and re-signing Hudson would be a good move. He won’t get 10MM a year, but 8MM is market value, especially since the Diamondbacks don’t have any immediate options coming up in the minors. Ellis is another solid infielder, and the Cardinals desperately need a dependable infielder. He’ll be an ideal fit. The same thing goes with the Baltimore Orioles. They’ve rotated four different players in and out of shortstop this year after trading away Miguel Tejada in the Winter, and they have no options in the minors to fill the void. Cabrera would make incredible sense for them, and would be an effective signing that would benefit the team. Him and second baseman Brian Roberts would form a solid middle of the infield. Any team that loses out on these players would definitely go after Nick Punto, a player who’s had his share of ESPN Web Gems this season with stellar defensive play.

• Player: Orlando Hudson
• Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
• Contract: 3 years, 25MM
• Average Salary: 8.33MM/year

• Player: Mark Ellis
• Team: St. Louis Cardinals
• Contract: 3 years, 16MM
• Average Salary: 5.33MM/year

• Player: Orlando Cabrera
• Team: Baltimore Orioles
• Contract: 2 years, 17MM
• Average Salary: 8.5MM/year

One Year Deals for the Rest

To round up the list, I see Joe Crede going back to the White Sox for a year to rebuild his value. He has great defense, and if he can stay healthy (he got off to a great start in 2008), he should get a multi-year deal the year afterwards. I do see the Red Sox exercising the perpetual 4MM option on Tim Wakefield, and the Angels would be foolish not to exercise the 15MM year option on Vladimir Guerrero and the 9MM option on John Lackey. Jamie Moyer will be back in a Phillies uniform in 2009, as is Mark Kotsay for the Red Sox and their bench. And the Wild Card, it’s the gambler himself Kenny Rogers. He could retire, but I see the Orioles offering him 3MM to eat innings in a weak rotation, kind of what they’ve did the past two years with Steve Trachsel.

• Player: Joe Crede
• Team: Chicago White Sox
• Contract: 1 year, 7.5MM
• Average Salary: 7.5MM/year

• Player: Mark Kotsay
• Team: Boston Red Sox
• Contract: 1 year, 4.5MM
• Average Salary: 4.5MM/year

• Player: Jamie Moyer
• Team: Philadelphia Phillies
• Contract: 1 year, 5.5MM
• Average Salary: 5.5MM/year

• Player: Kenny Rogers
• Team: Baltimore Orioles
• Contract: 1 year, 3MM
• Average Salary: 3MM/year

As the waiver-trading deadline approaches (August 31st), the Minnesota Twins made a move to solidify a weak bullpen by acquiring Eddie Guardado from the Rangers for another minor league closer, Mark Hamburger. Guardado has been solid this season, pitching to a 3.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, however he’s been hit hard in his last five outings. Then again the Twins’ bullpen has equally been ineffective, especially after yesterday’s meltdown loss where Nick Blackburn couldn’t make it past the fifth inning. For a team that doesn’t put up too many runs, a strong bullpen is vital to their playoff run. Outside of Joe Nathan, their pen has been a mess, mainly since they’re without veterans Juan Rincon (let go at start of season) and Pat Neshek (injured.)

Any ways Guardado will help shore up a rough bullpen, and will definitely help them in their playoff push. On an aside, Bill Smith could have had Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson this Spring for Johan Santana. I’m wondering if he’s regretting this decision…

Guardado spent a good portion of his career with the Twins. (Chris Carlson/AP)

As most baseball fans in Baltimore know, tomorrow (August 22, 2008) will mark the one-year anniversary of the infamous 30-3 Rangers/Orioles game. That day was a large turning point in Orioles history, since it for the most part put the final coffin nail in their 2007 season. The team was competitive, pushing for a Wild Card berth. Manager Dave Trembley had his “interim” tag removed on that date as well. It just seemed that after that point, their season went into a downward spiral.

I know that there was a good amount of analysis done on the game. The Orioles did have a 3-0 lead in that game, up until the fifth inning. The Rangers scored 16 runs in the final two innings of that game. They had four hitters with four RBI. They also had a pitcher who recorded a save. Still, one thing is certain, that after that game, the Orioles weren’t just the same for the rest of the season.

After watching last night’s Orioles game, I was happy to see the Orioles basically get back at Red Sox rookie Clay Buchholz, who threw a no-hitter at them a year ago. His no-no came a week after that demoralizing defeat against the Rangers. In other words, Buchholz was there at the right place, right time, since any arm that would have went up against Baltimore would have succeeded. Any ways Baltimore returned fire against Buchholz this season, and after last night’s shelling, the team demoted the rookie to their Double-A affiliate, the Portland Sea Dogs.

One year later, Baltimore is a different team. Granted they’re four games under .500, but they’re not folding late in the season, like they’ve done in year’s past. Their pitching is falling apart, but with the help of a potent offense they’re winning games (fourth in the Majors in runs scored.) Their aged hitters, once considered dead-wood who were hard to move in the off season, have now brought up their trade values. This includes Aubrey Huff (on pace for .300/35/115), Melvin Mora (.285/28/125) and catcher Ramon Hernandez (.260/18/75.) All three hitters were cold in April and May, however all three have heated up this summer. Mora himself is the hottest hitter after the All-Star break, hitting .385 with 10 HR, 47 RBI and a 1.100 OPS. However since these three players represent the top three players on the team’s payroll, I expect them to be moved before their contracts expire next season (Hernandez actually has two more years.)

In regards to Hernandez, there has been speculation that the Orioles would call up (their 2007 #1 draft pick) Matt Wieters to handle catching duties. Wieters is crushing minor league pitching, hitting to a .350 tune at Double-A Bowie. He’s also handling the pitching staff very well. However Baltimore is expected to keep him in the minors, with Hernandez being incredibly servicable. I honestly expect Wieters to take over catching duties in the middle of next season sometime, mainly to push back the hands on that quick moving service clock (kind of how the Reds handled the Jay Bruce situation.) Someone would gladly take Hernandez, since catching is hard to come by, and the fans would be definitly screaming for Wieters to be in Baltimore, especially if he’s crushing Triple-A pitching.

On a final note, I read a piece today about Terry Francona, calling the Orioles front office after hearing that (their closer) George Sherrill landed on the 15-day DL. Sherrill has currently pitched 51 innings (over his career high of 45) and has been used heavilly this year out of the bullpen. As most people can recall, Sherrill pitched three innings for the AL in the marathon All-Star game victory for the AL. Thankfully he only threw 25 pitches, however Francona had glowing things to say about Sherrill. Now granted, I might not enjoy the Red Sox like ESPN does, however I deeply respect Francona. He’s an excellent manager and no one could have handled the pitching quandary during the All Star game better than he did.

It’s funny watching SportsCenter each night and they show the highlights of the Mets games. They take a 2-0 lead into the eighth inning, walk away with a 5-2 loss (like against the Pirates on Monday.) Every night it seems like it’s a different goat, whether it be Heilman, or Feliciano, or Sanchez, or Smith, the Mets’ pen is a disaster. Coming from an Orioles fan myself, I can feel their pain, especially after watching Baltimore relievers pitch last year:

What happens when you can’t preserve a 3-0 lead…

I’m not sure what Omar Minaya can really do to improve the bullpen. He just acquired Luis Ayala from the Nationals on Sunday, and also signed free agent Al Reyes today. Still more needs to be done. I’m confused as to why they didn’t make a claim on David Weathers, or even work out a deal with some of the other available arms which passed through waivers, like Jamie Walker. I know the Rockies have been exposing their relievers like Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpas, but the odds of the Mets acquiring either is slim (especially with each being highly-overvalued at the non-waiver trading deadline back in July.) Minaya needs to do do something, especially with Billy Wagner unlikely to pitch again in 2008. The only other option is to have each of his starters throw a complete game, kind of what Milwaukee is doing with C.C. Sabathia. If Johan Santana was doing that himself, he’d be a 20 game winner currently, and would be the front-runner for the NL Cy Young award (not Brandon Webb.) Given the amount of games that the pen blew for Johan so far, I’m sure he’d approve this idea.

If Kevin Millar refers to (Yankee reliever) Edwar Ramirez as “good hittin’", I’m curious as to what other AL hitters are saying about Justin Verlander. I’m looking foolish for putting him as a lock to win 20 games this year (as are many people), but with his stuff I’m confused why he isn’t pitching better. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tries to delve further into an analysis of it, but in the long run, one of the primary barometers of a pitcher is his velocity, and Verlander’s velocity is not down this year. Any ways injury concerns can be dismissed because of it, and there was a stretch from May to July where Verlander was as good as he was his first two years in the majors. He’s got exceptional stuff, and I think he’ll be fine in the long run, but his season is simply indicative of the Tigers’ in general.

Speaking of ESPN, I was watching Baseball Tonight this past weekend and the hosts started to prattle off a list of intriguing two-start pitchers for fantasy baseball. I was albeit drunk at this time, however I need someone to fill out my patchwork rotation in one of my leagues (the two-start pitchers that RotoWorld suggested were people that I could obviously never find on a waiver wire.) I remembered Ricky Nolassco’s name mentioned as him making two starts on the road this week, one in San Francisco and one in Arizona, and they recommended him as a pick. Taking their advice for the sake of things, I plugged Nolassco into my rotation and was rewarded with a nifty two-hitter. I know I rift on ESPN from time to time, that is with their affinity towards the Red Sox (e.g. The Nation!), but their fantasy guys saved my ass. They get my thanks for one week.

• I wanted to chime in on the Greg Maddux trade to the Dodgers, something which broke on ESPN Monday night. I read through Paul DePodesta’s blog about how the Padres are seeking players in return for the Professor, instead of cash assistance. Any ways going through the comments in the bottom, one fan asked if the Dodgers would get compensation if Maddux walked. DePodesta for the most part said “no", since the Dodgers would have to offer Maddux arbitration in the offseason. And as DePodesta responded, Maddux has accepted their offer before (the last thing the Dodgers would need is another one year, 10MM deal with Maddux for ‘09.)
• My friend sent me an interesting read about the Chinese and baseball in the Olympics (not the Chi-coms!) Any ways in regards to the Matt LaPorta injury, it only leads me to wonder if MLB will further scale back on the players that it sends to the Olympics. This incident is interesting, especially from Mark Shapiro and the Indians’ take, since they gave up a pretty penny to acquire LaPorta from the Brewers in July.

• Lastly to close on the Orioles, they made some roster moves. Closer George Sherrill is on the DL (which doesn’t surpise me, considering how worked he’s been.) They also moved Garrett Olsen and Dennis Sarfate out of the rotation. Sarfate has stuff that’s just as good as Verlander’s. He’s at times unhittable, however he walks about six men per nine innings, which is not good. Until that improves, Sarfate’s career as a starter is on hold. Olsen on the other hand might be over-worked himself. A couple starts ago he pitched a shutout into the ninth inning. That was against the Mariners nonetheless, however Major League teams are hitting him hard. Time out will do both pitchers good. Young pitching is good for a team, but is something you can’t rely on all season long (ask the Yankees this year.)

  In regards to what they do in the offseason, I was thinking, that is about their payroll. I expect it to hover around 70MM, and that will include 10MM off the books with Jay Payton leaving, and Chad Bradford recently traded. Before they consider signing Mark Teixiera, they’ll need to sign their own players in house. Sherrill will surely want a raise from the 900K he earned in 2008, and Nick Markakis‘ salary is expected to increase ten-fold once he hits arbitration. Thankfully for the team, Jeremy Guthrie can still be kept at league minimum for another year.

Really interesting day in baseball this afternoon, especially in the AL East. Both Toronto and the Yankees piled on fifteen runs today against the Red Sox and Royals. Baltimore slams Detroit pitching for sixteen runs as well. Both Melvin Mora and Alex Rios ended up with five hits apiece, and ERAs of pitching staffs rose today just like gas prices did this summer. And of course while all this was going on, the Little League World Series is in full effect. Could Scott Boras be scouting out the next thirteen year old phenom from Mexico, Curacao or Italy, taking out the parents to dinner in the process?

Any ways ending on that point, I wanted to mention that the 2008 Amateur Draft is for the most part over, as of Saturday morning. I read an interesting story on Baseball America, stating that the average signing bonus of the first round picks was record shattering this year, averaging around 2.45MM per player (that should drop slightly, since the Mariners can still sign Joshua Fields after the deadline, since he is a college senior.) In regards to the first round picks, while the bulk of the picks signed, there were a few exceptions. The Yankees failed to sign their twenty-eighth pick, pitcher Gerrit Cole, who chose college over the guaranteed money from a very “reasonable offer” from the Yankees. And the Nationals weren’t able to sign right-handed pitcher Aaron Crow; they will be compensated in next year’s draft.

I’ve heard varying points on this issue. Granted the Nationals are an eighty loss team, on pace to lose 105 games during the inauguration of their new stadium. There’s a trend to build teams around young talent (like Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Texas and Pittsburgh are doing), and the Nationals did fail to sign their first pick, a pitcher who’s polished enough to be a number two starter in any rotation (he’d be an ace in Washington.) I’ve heard people take the side of the pitcher in this debate, that Jim Bowden should have gave Crow the extra 700K to get him into their system. However in this case, I’m taking the side of the front office.

Bowden has made his share of bonehead moves this year, for investing 16MM in an injured All-Star Christian Guzman, and trading their closer Jon Rauch to the Diamondbacks for pennies on the dime. Still Bowden made all the moves necessary to get Crow pitching for them this winter. There’s an excellent piece today in the Washington Post explaining the hours leading up to the deadline between Bowden and the Hendricks brothers, the guys who served as Crow’s “advisor” (can’t say agent here.) In looking at Bowden’s words, he did everything he could possible to sign Crow, however the two parties simply ran out of time.

As most people know, I follow the Orioles more if anything, and there was some incredible talent to be picked from in this year’s draft. Baltimore had the fourth pick, and chose one of the two top pitchers in the draft, Brian Matusz. Their scouting director Joe Jordan probably would have preferred Tim Beckham or Pedro Alvarez, but they went one-two. The team had no need for Buster Posey, drafting Matt Weiters from Georgia Tech a year earlier. And as Jordan and Andy MacPhail said, they could have taken one of the very polished hitters (e.g. Justin Smoak), but wisely opted for Matusz.

In regards to the two pitchers, both of the polished arms are projected to be #2 starters. Personally I’m glad that the Orioles opted for Matusz, knowing that there’d be signability issues with Crow. Initially Crow and his party demanded 9MM, which explains why he dropped all the way down to the number nine pick in the draft. At 4pm EST on Friday last week, Matusz was under contract, a Major League one too (one of the two, the other given by the Reds to Yonder Alonso, someone I honestly expected to be going back to the Canes in ‘09.) According to Bowden, there was a Major League contract on the table for Crow, one very similar to Matusz’s deal, however Crow and his party weren’t willing to come down from the reduced 4MM that they were asking. Any ways midnight struck, and Crow’s fate was determined: he’ll be pitching this year in Texas for an independent team.

From the team’s perspective, was this this wisest move that the player made? He gave up a considerable amount of (guaranteed) money, and essentially set his career back a year. Granted he’ll be pitching this year, and will be eligible for the draft come next June, but will he go as high as he did again, knowing that these signability issues exist? Of course ineffectiveness and even worse an injury can set things back further for Crow, especially knowing that he left the offer on the table like he did. Clearly Matusz made out better, and is on track to be a starter for the Orioles in 2010 or 2011.

Crow will be pitching for the Fort Worth Cats in 2009. (Mizzou Athletic Media Relations)

In the end, I give credit to all the teams able to sign those first rounders. Kudos to the Pirates and Reds, going the extra effort and spending the money to pump more young talent into their system. The same thing goes to the Royals and Giants, who both had outstanding albeit expensive drafts. As an O’s fan I enjoyed Baltimore’s draft as well, spending to sign over 70% of its 50 picks this year. If there’s any way that big market teams will be beat, it’s through young talent. However in regards to how long they’ll be able to retain the talent during their six years of control, that’s another story, especially for Boras clients. Mark Teixiera was on a mission to go year-to-year, and it will pay off for him in the end. Weiters and Alvarez, the same thing. The teams could employ the strategy the Rangers used, which is to trade the players once they express no interest to sign long-term, and that never hurts in the process (especially for Matt Harrison, who threw eight shutout innings last night against the Rays.)

There is clearly a shift to get younger in Major League Baseball today. Ask the Angels, they have four key free agents this winter (Teixeira included), and according to Ken Rosenthal, aren’t expected to sign any of them. Assuming they’re wise and offer arbitration to each of them, they could be compensated very nicely in the draft next year. But until then, we’ll have to wait it out until then. The season’s almost over, and then the exciting Winter side of baseball begins. And then a few more months, and we’re drafting again. Just when that summer cookout begins, be sure not to say hold the (Jonathan) Mayo.

Today was a good day, especially if you’re an Orioles fan. Baltimore signed its first round draft pick, left-handed pitcher Brian Matusz today, to a four year, 3.45MM contract, a few hours before the midnight deadline this evening. Hopefully this offer will open the floodgates for other deals, Nationals’ right-handed Aaron Crow in particular, who recently signed with an Independent Team (Diamondbacks’ stud pitcher signed with the same team himself before signing.)

The one thing which separates Matusz’s contract from other ones is that this is a Major League deal. Matusz is guaranteed a spot on the team’s 40-man roster, and has limited minor league options. In other words, this ensures that he’ll be on a fast track to the Majors, much like the team’s last draftee who received a Major League contract, pitcher Adam Loewen.

These contracts can either be blessings or curses. The major league contract benefited for the Tigers and Justin Verlander, who quickly throttled through their system, winning the Rookie of the Year immediately thereafter, helping the team advance to a World Series berth. However the ML contract hurt the Indians and Jeremy Guthrie, who due to a crowded roster was let go by the Indians, only to see him shut them down over seven innings by the Orioles a few days ago.

Baltimore has been drafting very well, especially under their new scouting director Joe Jordan, who has watched under four drafts now. As a result and with recent trades, their farm system is very deep. The Orioles were able to sign fourteen of their first fifteen picks now this year, and outside of the Giants and Royals, the Orioles had one of the best drafts this year. Matusz, considered by many to be the best pitcher in the draft, is projected to be a #2 starter for the team. The main difference between him and Loewen however is that Loewen was drafted right out of high school. Had the team waited two years, the injury-concerns of their pitcher might have been more visible (Loewen is now attempting to convert to a position player.) Matusz pitched in college in San Diego, and looks incredibly polished. Nonetheless, I’m happy that Matusz is under contract. Here’s to 2010, O’s fans.

Drafted #4 overall, Matusz is considered the best pitcher in the draft (Getty Images / July 18, 2007.)

Hitting the Waiver Wire

Baltimore also put out news that four of its players successfully passed through waivers: hitters Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millar, Jay Payton and reliever Jamie Walker. The team has until the end of the month to trade either player now, however I’m personally surprised that Huff made it through. Huff, like the Orioles, are swinging hot bats. The team is hitting well over .300 since the All Star break, however thanks to poor pitching and sloppy defense, they’re playing .500 ball (had it not been for Guthrie’s efforts, the results would be far worse.) After hovering in the .260s for the first part of the year, Huff and Nick Markakis have their averages over .300 now. Brian Roberts is close to .295, Melvin Mora around .280, and even Ramon Hernandez is up to .260. And adding Luis Montanez was a great move as well. He could be this year’s Josh Hamilton, a top draft pick in the 2000 draft finally starting to blossom eight years later (he was hitting .330 at Double-A.)

Baltimore’s offense has been scary of late as well, and they’re now going up against some bad pitching in Detroit (their best starter Armando Galarraga, and they won’t have to face him.) Some facts about their offense: Huff is among the leaders in slugging percentage, and is the AL leader in extra base hits (teammate Roberts is third.) And another fact, only one National League team has scored more runs than Baltimore: the Cubs. So why is the team 58-62? I’m not sure. However if the team had some solid consistent pitching after Guthrie, they’d be challenging the Rays now for the top spot in the AL East. Seriously, just ask the Rangers how much they’re craving pitching now.

Some minor news from today, but I’ll drop a comment on each piece.

• The Diamondbacks acquired Adam Dunn from the Reds for three players, one being minor league pitcher Dallas Buck. I’ll keep my analysis short and sweet. This is a great move on Arizona’s behalf. Granted they’re only getting two months of Dunn, however they aren’t giving up too much. If Buck is the centerpiece, then this doesn’t look like much of a haul for the Reds. Buck has had his share of injuries (he had Tommy John I believe immediately after being drafted two years ago), but it’s still too early to see where he’ll project in their rotation. Nonetheless, the Diamondbacks will get two first round picks for Dunn after he leaves as a free agent in the winter. Dunn has thirty two long balls, and the D-Backs finally get that much needed pop.
• Speaking of much needed pop, the Rays placed rookie Evan Longoria on the 15-day DL with a broken wrist this afternoon. Though break for Tampa Bay, especially since they failed to acquire Jason Bay at the trading deadline, and also placed Carl Crawford on the DL as well today. Granted he’ll be back, and even though Willy Aybar had his multi-homer game yesterday, he’s still not a viable option. And for the record, I take back what I said in the great Longoria v. Alex Gordon debate (I made a mistake here.)
• Texas places closer C.J. Wilson on the DL, and he’s out for the year. He’s been ineffective of late as well, and that’s presumably because of the injury. Eddie Guardado gets the save opportunities here. Any ways, Wilson will have some more time to blog at least.

There have been some interesting waiver trades of late, and it has been even more active than usual. We’ve seen Felipe Lopez go to the Cardinals, Livan Hernandez to the Rockies, and even Brian Giles to the Red Sox. In another move today, Baltimore was able to pass their right-handed reliever Chad Bradford to the Tampa Bay Rays for a player to be named later. If the Rockies were asking the Rays for David Price or Wade Davis for Brian Fuentes, then I’m curious to see what the O’s will acquire. Tampa Bay is pitching rich, and I’d be happy receiving someone like J.P. Howell.

One thing that few people cite is that unlike last year, Baltimore has a deep bullpen this year. Even though the team went out last year and doled out 10.5MM guaranteed to free agents Bradford, 12MM to Jamie Walker and 18MM to Danys Baez, on the whole the corps was overworked. This year with the emergence of other arms such as (Rule V pick) Randor Bierd, Dennis Sarfate (who’s going back into the bullpen), Alberto Castillo, Jim Johnson, and closer George Sherrill, any of the acquisitions are expendable, especially with (last year’s closer) Chris Ray coming back from the disabled list sometime in September, and last year’s solid middleman Rocky Cherry fully recovered from injury and pitching very well at Triple-A Norfolk. I’m curious to see who else Baltimore would move. Walker is back off the disabled list and has been effective, and he could be the next to go.

All in all, this is a much better move for the Rays than Fuentes would be. Their bullpen is deep, especially if they call up (last summer’s #1 Amateur Draft pick) Price. And Bradford’s salary (4.5MM remaining until the end of ‘09) isn’t that much of a hindrance. And in all fairness, I’m not sure why more teams put in claims for Bradford, especially the Yankees and Red Sox. The Angels made a bid for Bradford, but he’s still going to the Rays nonetheless.

Bradford is a solid 3-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 2008. (Getty Images)

Baltimore made two recent moves this week, dipping into the farm for a pitcher to replace (the demoted) Brian Burres in the rotation and (the injured) Adam Jones in the outfield. To analyze each of the two moves.

• Baltimore brought up 27 year old left-hander Chris Waters from Triple-A Norfolk to make his Major League Debut yesterday against a 70-win Angels team. All in all, the results were nice:

  Chris Waters’ MLB Debut against the Anges

  IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
  8	1	0	0	3	3

  As to where I’d project him the rest of the season, or even for next year, it’s hard to tell. Dave Trembley essentially ensured him another start after yesterday’s performance, and he could stick with the team the rest of the season. Granted Waters had a 4.60 in his Double-A and Triple-A season, however his 3.60 ERA in July meritted his call up. And there aren’t too many other options that Baltimore has currently; Hayden Penn has been inconsistent at Triple-A, and Brad Bergesen is a fourteen game winner, but at Double-A Bowie. I honestly didn’t expect eight one-hit innings (I expected a much shorter outing personally.) The Angels hitters looked bad last night, and that’s simply due to the fact that there’s very little scouting information about him. Once he gets adjusted to the league, the one-time Braves’ prospect’s ERA should rise. It’ll be interesting to see how he’ll fare for the remainder of the season.

• With the Jones injury opens up another spot in their outfield. The team could have either called up Tike Redman from Triple-A, however they chose to call up Luis Montanez from Bowie. Montanez is having a great season in the Eastern League, hitting .330 with 26 homers and 97 RBI. He was the third overall draft pick in the 2000 Amateur Draft by the Cubs. It took him eight years, and he finally made his major league debut today against the Angels. Likewise with Waters, he also had an impressive first day: 2 for 4, with a home run. As many people have noticed about him in Double-A, he doesn’t belong in the Eastern League.

  Again, as to Baltimore’s other options, they don’t have much else to fit the outfield. Montanez is an interesting choice, and if he performs with the talent that enabled the Cubs to select him so quickly, Baltimore is stuck with a nice high-reward move. His only competition now is Jay Payton, who is a strong canidate for being designated for assignment, especially given Payton’s 5MM salary for 2008. Dave Trembley should be giving full-time at bats to Montanez for the time being, and if he produces at the clip that he was in the Eastern League, he could be a quiet sleeper in 2009 for a great season.

A few things built up since the last time I wrote here. I’ll iterate through these “unordered list” style, of course giving my inexpert analysis of each move.

• The Diamondbacks locked up co-ace Dan Haren this evening with a five-year contract extension. I’m not exactly sure what Josh Byrnes and co. did in Arizona, but they for the most part pulled a “Johan Santana” and tore up Haren’s existing contract. His new deal will pay him roughly 58MM over the length of the contract, assuming the Diamondbacks suck up that 15.5MM club option for 2013. If Haren continues to pitch as well as he has, this will probably be exercised.

  Haren’s good, and he’s finally getting paid market value. Billy Beane extended him for very cheaply, then he broke out last year (starting an All-Star game) and was sold high to the Diamondbacks for a cache of players. He’ll be 33 when his contract is over, so this is a great move for the Diamondbacks, considering the fact that the risk is lower here, and that Haren is currently 12-5 with a 2.75 ERA.

  I’ve been a fan of Haren for years now. I remember when he was with the Cardinals and Baseball Weekly named him their minor league pitcher of the year. Maybe that was Bud Smith, I’m not sure, but it seems just right after that he was immediately shipped to the A’s for Mark Mulder. Any ways Haren didn’t come as cheaply as other recent young pitcher signings, however for an ace this is albeit a good deal. Now the real question is how in the world are they going to lock up Brandon Webb?

• Joba Chamberlain is hurt now (was watching it last night on ESPN), as is Billy Wagner. Any ways Ian Kennedy gets the starts, and I expect him to stick this time around. He hasn’t been in the minors too long, but he’s one of the better young finesse pitchers that I’ve seen. He’s bound to succeed as a #3 starter.
• Jamie Moyer impresses me. The same thing goes for Fernando Tatis. He’s now a regular, and after two more bombs he’s up to nine. He probably won’t hit 34 again, but it’s nice to see his resurgence. By the way, Rich Harden got hit hard in five plus tonight. He still struck out eight in the effort.
• In Baltimore, Adam “no relation to Pacman” Jones goes on the DL. After fouling that ball off his foot on Sunday, he apparently has some sort of fracture. He should finish the season on the DL with a .279/7/50 line. Not a bad chip to come for Erik Bedard. Speaking of the lopsided trade, George Sherrill should be shut down or used sparingly now. After his three walk effort last night (and that he’s at his seasonal innings total now), “Full Pack” is out of gas.
• The Rockies finally acquired a front line starter, picking up Livan Hernandez who was dumped by the Twins earlier this week. They’ll swallow the remaining 1.5MM that he’s owed on his one year, 5MM deal he signed in the spring. By the way there’s a little sarcasm here, he’ll be ineffective.
• By the way, Gio Gonzalez gets a start for the A’s this week. I’ve been hyping him since last year, and am curious to see how he’ll fare in his debut.

Wow, today was exciting. I love baseball, and I especially love the trading deadline. I’ve recollected before about how the deadline was more fun when it was later in the evening, however 4pm deadlines have their advantages. It’s really fun watching the headlines as they come across in my cubicle at work.

So leaving work today, I was under the impression that Jason Bay was a Ray. Going from the word of RotoWorld, I thought this was true. The Reid Brignac, Jeff Neimann deal makes sense for both clubs, and if I was Pittsburgh I would have made it in a heartbeat. Any ways I get in the car after work, turn on ESPN Radio, and I hear that Manny Ramirez was traded. At this point I was confused, since I thought that the Manny/Marlins thing was “dead", as Peter Gammons put it. And to compound the confusion even further, Bay was then said to be the latest member of the Red Sox Nation???!!!

Up until this point, the only moves that I heard until this were Arthur Rhodes going to the Marlins for Gaby Hernandez (he could pan out for the Mariners down the road), LaTroy Hawkins going to the Astros for a minor league second baseman who probably won’t see the light of day, the Yankees dealing a backup shortstop of the future to the Nationals, and Ken Griffey Jr. officially agreeing to be traded to the White Sox (the two players then being named later in the afternoon.) The Nationals later shed some dead wood, releasing Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca.

I love the three team trade between the Pirates, Red Sox and Dodgers. Looking at the winners, I like the Dodgers. Manny will bring some life into that lineup. Maybe Andruw Jones will now start hitting because of this, however coupled with the doubles machine Casey Blake, they could finally make some noise in a dead NL West (as we’ve all been hoping.) Granted Manny is all bat, no glove, however he’s now motivated for something more important: a monster contract. Will he get it at 35? Not sure. However he made an agreement with the Dodgers to decline their arbitration so that he can become a free agent (Scott Boras probably doesn’t like this, since this will thin out some teams, having to give up a draft pick and such.)

Who are the losers now? I’m reading ESPN now, and they are listing the Red Sox as a loser. I don’t quite get this move. They gave up very little to get Bay, and got rid of a disturbance in Ramirez (ask Curt Schilling.) Bay is a talented player, and note to The Nation, the team will be much better in the future with Bay than they will with Manny. Still the argument that ESPN gave was that the Red Sox are giving away their memories. Right. Brandon Moss, as talented as he his, will never see the light of day in that crowded outfield. Same thing goes with Craig Hansen. There are other AAA hitters they have that are in the same position as well.

The Pirates bomb out in my book. I would have loved to seen them get Brignac and Neimann, however apparently the Rays pulled the rug on that offer (they don’t need either player by the way, with their top pick from this summer’s draft Tim Beckham being ready for the 2010 season.) Granted three of the players they received today are MLB ready, however there really isn’t anyone in their set of recently received prospects that jumps out (in looking at their Xavier Nady give-away from last weekend.) Any ways today’s a bad day to be a Pirates fan. They still have Pedro Alvarez coming, but they got to sign him first. Any ways some more winners and losers from the recent dealings:

Winners

• Florida. They avoided “huge mistake” by not selling the farm on Manny. Jeremy Hermida, Mike Stanton and Ryan Tucker is a package that should have been offered for Matt Holiday, but the Rockies wouldn’t offer any buyer’s assistance here. Still with this talented lineup, and the pitchers coming back from injuries, they have the bats to make a run for it in the NL East.
• Yankees. They gave up very little for their two main trades, and received exceptional value. Brian Cashman did his job. Enough said.
• Angels of Anaheim. Tex is huge, great move by Tony Reagins.
• Cubs and Brewers. They made their noise earlier in the month.

Losers

• Tampa Bay. They needed a player like Bay to make some noise in the AL East. And to acquire someone like Bay, Brignac is required, since they weren’t going to give up David Price or any of their other arms. Then again, I’m doubtful that the Rays are even looking at this year to make their run for it. We won’t see the full fruits of their labor until 2010, which could be scary if you’re an AL East team.
• Seattle. Granted they’re not beggars, but they have a ton of dead wood, and they should have been more aggressive in moving it. I expect a good portion of it gone by September though.
• White Sox. Junior will bring the fans, but not the wins.
• Braves. The Teixiera deal they made with the Rangers now looks bad in retrospect.
• Houston. They should stop attempting to “make a run for it.”
• Diamondbacks. They’re fucked.

Idling

• Toronto. Didn’t give up Marcum or Snider for Bay. It’s smart to sit pat here.
• Baltimore. Kudos to MacPhail for holding out for the best deals.
• Oakland. See above with Baltimore, and what Billy Beane did.
• Mets. Omar sold the farm last winter to the Twins.
• Kansas City. Their only chip is Ron Mahay, but he’s a very good chip to have on their table nonetheless.

As a shocker when I was driving home from work today, I heard that the Yankees addressed their catching woes, by acquiring Ivan Rodriguez from the Tigers. The Tigers were only able to pull Kyle Farnsworth from the Yankees, so once again the Yankees make out well with the trades.

I’m not sure why the Tigers would give up Rodriguez so easily, when they could have just retained him and then offered him arbitration as a free agent. If he left for a multi-year offer, the Tigers would have got the Type-A picks. Any ways this is great for the Yankees. They have Pudge for the duration that Jorge Posada is out, and that’s it. A trade for Ramon Hernandez wouldn’t make much sense, since they’d have a pair of large-salaried full-time catchers on their roster in ‘09. Pudge after his slow start got his average up into the .290s and for the Yankees to get rid of their headache in Farnsworth, this is a win-win for the Bronx Bombers.

Manny Being Manny

The other rumored headache which could be moved is Manny Ramirez. His attitude this season irritated management, and now is speculated to be wanted by many teams. Of course Manny can veto any trade if he really wants out, and wants the receiving team to eliminate the 20MM ‘09 and 10 options. In other words, Manny wants to be a free agent after the season is over, and do what A-Rod did, which is sign another contract worth 30MM more. One thing about Manny, he’s older than A-Rod. His numbers are also declining, as is his bat speed. He probably won’t hit .300 again as well.

He’ll still have the power though, but he’ll quickly find out that there aren’t too many suitors for an aged headcase whose seeking a salary upwards of 25MM per year. The same thing will happen to Jason Giambi this winter. Nonetheless, I expect the Red Sox to retain Manny and pick up those options. It would make the most sense, at least to the Nation.

Huff Daddy

In the AL East, granted the attention goes most to the Yankees and Red Sox. However after this series in the Bronx between the Yankees and Orioles, media markets are starting to recognize the nice season that Aubrey Huff is having. He’s back to the form he was when he first came up with Tampa Bay, and is currently on pace for a .302/34/110 season.

Huff is hitting .400 since June. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

People were speculating that Huff could be had for cheap, now I expect the Orioles to hold onto him. His salary next year jumps to 10MM, and he might be traded next July. However considering the fact that the Orioles have no other offensive options for the time being, he’ll probably remain with them through the winter. I speculated yesterday about Andy MacPhail waiting until the 7/31 deadline is over to start moving players through waivers. I now doubt if Huff will be able to pass though himself, given the fine season that he’s having. Besides, 10MM is a very reasonable salary for a .300 hitter with 35 homers, at least in today’s market.

Stalemate

Lastly, I wanted to mention that we aren’t any closer to signing those remaining first round draft picks that are holding out from June’s amateur draft. The deadline to do so by the way is 8/15. Most of the players that were signed are currently playing now by the way (see Kyle Skipworth.)

As I went to the shower, I checked ESPN’s MLB trade deadline blog and found that the Braves are shipping first baseman Mark Teixeira to the Angels. The Braves acquire their first baseman Casey Kotchman plus a minor league pitcher.

In offering a very quick analysis of the deal, both teams made out well. To analyze from both sides:

• The Braves: Granted they lost Teixeira, however they couldn’t have resigned him in the end. Kotchman is a great first baseman however, but he probably doesn’t have the upside that Teixeira has. However in the end this move will save them some money. The main reason the Angels were free to trade Kotchman was because he had no interest in signing a long-term deal; he preferred to go year to year through his arbitration years. Granted that in the end costs far less than it would to resign Tex. In addition to Kotchman, the Braves also acquire lefty Stephen Marek, so this is a solid haul regardless for them.
• The Angels: Granted this move comes with some strings attached, and unlike the Johan Santana trade, there is no negotiation window to sign a long term extension. Part of me believes that something will happen soon though between the Angels and Teixeira. The money they save by not resigning K-Rod and avoiding Kotchman’s arbitration costs will bankroll this extension. Still this move is very nice. The Angels have a dangerous right side of the infield, if you include their talented second baseman Howie Kendrick. However for them to be a dangerous team, they need to address the left side of their infield. It’s a shame that the Braves weren’t willing to take Gary Matthews Jr. in the deal.

The MLB non-waiver trading deadline is two days away, and I’m not sure what Baltimore is going to do. Last year, Andy MacPhail sat idle at the deadline, and waited until afterward when he could pass players like Steve Trachsel exposed through waivers to the Cubs. This year I’m not sure. The same thing can’t be done if he’s planning on trading Brian Roberts or George Sherrill…

Some news today that I’m disappointed to discuss, Roch Kubatko is leaving his position with the Baltimore Sun. From what I recalled on Rush Limbaugh’s program, the Sun was expected to lay off 400 of its employees. Roch took their buyout offer, and his last day is this Friday, August 1st. I hope he finds something he loves doing (hopefully MASN will take him in.) I love reading his blog. It was a great source of rumors, and he always did live coverage during the team’s Spring Training games, at a time when fans are at most craving baseball.

I read on a few rumor sites that the Astros aren’t done buying, and are looking for a solid middle reliever. Any ways this brings me back to the point, why didn’t they keep Dennis Sarfate (who went in the grab-bag of players to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada over the winter)? Any ways long story short, Sarfate is now going into Baltimore’s rotation, with Rhadhames Liz being optioned to Triple-A Norfolk, and Brian Burres being demoted to the bullpen.

Burres, who admittedly has kept the game in most of his starts and is tied for the team lead with seven wins, is a “smoke and mirrors” pitcher (to paraphrase RotoWorld.) At the beginning of the season, his numbers are good. After about fifteen starts, when the league gets to obtain a handle on him, they start to deteroritate. The same thing happened to him last season, when he got knocked around like a pinata in September. As to how he’d fare in the bullpen, I’m not sure. He has shown the ability to get hitters out, and he probably would have a better career in the bullpen.

The move Dave Trembley made here was confusing, at least if Baltimore was in contention. Most people expected Burres to retain his hold on the rotation slot, however it doesn’t hurt to give Sarfate the try, considering the fact that he has much better stuff. His only downside is his control difficulties. He was a starter back in Milwaukee’s system, however when brought up he was a reliever. Still Sarfate is out of options, and Burres is not, so this move is surely worth a try. Sarfate gets the call this Wednesday against the Yankees for his first start.

As to what he’d do, I’m not sure. I was down in Baltimore on Friday last week, and I saw Sarfate incidentally relieve Burres in his start. Oddly enough when I sat down, Burres was out of the game, after allowing three homers in an inning and change to the Angels. Sarfate then pitched three scoreless, so was that a precursor to what just happened, I’m not sure. And in regards to their fifth starter, they don’t need one until Saturday, so I guess this is to be determined. Still, going off on a tangent here, I’m a big fan of the “all you can eat seats” promotion that ballclubs are doing. On Friday night, I put away eight hot dogs. In all fairness, this is why baseball is so great:

I paid for it in the end though.

The K-Rod Watch

At the game last Friday, I saw Francisco Rodriguez notch a save for the Angels. Tt was a two run lead, and he coughed up a solo shot to Kevin Millar though. I also watched the Angels/Red Sox game last night. When K-Rod came in, he was presented with a “platter save” opportunity (or a three-run lead.) He got the save, but gave up another solo home run to Manny Ramirez, who hit it just above the Green Monster.

I’ve stated before, Rodriguez wore down in the second half of the season last year, and as a result ended up with his highest ERA as a closer. From his last couple opportunities, could the same thing be happening here? As ESPN pointed out last night, after Bobby Thigpen saved 57 games, he wasn’t the same closer after that. K-Rod is on pace to shatter this record, and will be paid handsomely in the fall as a free agent.

Some advice for Mike Scioscia and the Angels, brought to you by me: preserve your closer. If the division is wrapped up in early September (which I’m expecting), throw some save opportunites to Scott Shields (whose salary is indicitave of closer money) or even Jose Arredondo, whom many think will be K-Rod’s successor after he leaves (K-Rod was groomed the same way when Troy Percival was around.) Granted, I know the Angels are wise enough to not pay K-Rod 15MM a year in the offseason, but still, this is no excuse to get every ounce out of their closer. Overusing K-Rod now will lead to bad bullpen implosions when it counts, that is in October. Then again what do I know…

UPDATE: Sarfate got torched in his start 7/30 against the Yankees.

Yesterday was an interesting day in baseball. The Cubs pitchers struck out 20 hitters, and still lost the game. Reds’ starter Homer Bailey allows 15 hits in four plus innings to the Rockies (wow!) However the whole day was shadowed by the numerous trade talks. For now I wanted to focus my attention on one hitter in particular, the Braves’ first baseman Mark Teixeira. Not only do I want to speculate on what will happen with him in the next few days, I want to address how well he’ll fare out in the offseason.

Everyone by now knows Teixeira. He’s a free agent this winter, and agreed to a 12.5MM contract with the Braves before the season. His numbers are solid on the season (20 HR, 77 RBI), however his .277 average should be a little higher. Granted Teixeira is known to be a second half hitter, and there’s no reason to believe that he couldn’t end up with 35 homers on the season. And with Chipper Jones off-injured and Jeff Francoeur mired in a season-long slump, his numbers could remain down with that missing protection in the lineup.

The past few days, his name has come up in trade talks. Yes, he would make an excellent two month rental for any team looking for an offensive upgrade, however looking at the teams that are available I don’t see a match. A few weeks ago, there was rumor of a Kevin Youkilis, Teixeira swap in Boston. The rumor was dismissed by both sides, after all on paper it appears completely foolish. The Diamondbacks coughing up their major league ready talent to obtain him, unlikely. Same goes with the two Los Angeles teams, where I don’t see either James Loney or Casey Kotchman being dealt for the two-month rental.

If Atlanta was to trade Teixeira, they should be expecting a package very similar to what Mark Shapiro and the Indians got for C.C. Sabathia. However that trade was back at the beginning of the month. If anything looking at the weak prospect hauls received in recent trades (Xavier Nady to the Yankees, Joe Blanton to the Philies, etc.), I don’t see anything other than two (three top) prospects being dealt, one being tops in the system, but none being Major League ready. The Braves are for the most part out of the race in the NL East, and given the fact that they waited until 7/31/08 to make a move, I see them holding on to Teixeira until the end of the season. They could bid on him, or they could let him walk and take the two additional draft picks in the 2009 Amateur Draft. Ken Rosenthal somewhat agrees here.

Tex’s Monster Pay Day

After the World Series is over, Teixeira is a free agent. So where will his destination be? The two main names that come up are the Yankees and his hometown Orioles. The one main sticking point however is his salary. Scott Boras is expected to start the bidding at 19MM per season, and that might be too high for either club, considering the fact both clubs have had a history of being mired with bad contracts. Both teams now are taking a different approach as well, which is pushing focus towards player development and less towards free agent signings.

In the past year, we’ve seen the market change dramatically. Teams are now taking the risk by locking up their young stars long before they hit free agency and even their years of arbitration. Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler, Brad Hawpe, Fausto Carmona and Adam Wainwright are a few names to name, and for the most part this strategy is working (Alex Rios‘ power is returning by the way.) And due to this strategy, players like Mike Piazza, Kenny Lofton and Barry Bonds are getting little interest. Owners are finally realizing that paying 7MM for a aged veteran doesn’t yield the fullest return on their investments.

Don’t get me wrong, Teixeira will get a nice payday this winter, however I’m skeptical about it getting into the 23MM range like many are predicting. The main reason why is because there are few teams willing to pay him that money. Baltimore is highly unlikely, as are the Mets (who spent top dollar last winter) and the Dodgers (who are apparently having cash-flow problems.) The Angels are a dark-horse candidate, however they have other areas of where they need to spend. I honestly could see Teixeira returning to the Braves, since he just recently built a large home there. It’s going to take 100MM in total compensation to sign him, and given the increased frugality in baseball, I don’t see that figure going any higher. The same thing goes with Sabathia, with the Brewers extending as much mileage as they can out of him before he becomes a free agent (three straight complete games?) Besides, if Teixeira receives a 21MM per year salary, that’s a 70% increase in pay. Will his new team receive a 70% increase in production from him?

Tex will be paid well in 2009, but let’s not get too carried away here. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

The other team making noise before next Thursday’s trading deadline was the Cleveland Indians. This morning, the Indians acquired RHP Jon Meloan and catcher Carlos Santana for third baseman/outfielder Casey Blake. And a few minutes ago, the Indians acquired starter Anthony Reyes from the Cardinals for relief pitching prospect Luis Perdoma.

In regards to what we saw from the Indians so far this July, this is what Mark Shapiro does best. Shapiro tried to sign C.C. Sabathia, however in the end he did the right thing and dealt him to the Brewers for a strong set of prospects. The team had little use for Blake, and it was doubtful that they’d sign him in the offseason after he hit free agency (they’ll save 3MM as well by making this trade.) And Reyes? Yeah like most people, I’m sold on this young pitcher. He looked stellar in the 2006 World Series, and as many people said he simply needs a change of scenery. He’s got great stuff, and going to a no-pressure environment like Cleveland, he could contribue immediately.

On behalf of the Dodgers, this was a move they needed to make. They didn’t cough up their main talent, but like the Yankees they need offense, badly. Andruw Jones isn’t cutting it, and injuries are mounting to their other regulars (like Juan Pierre and Rafeal Furcal.) Blake DeWitt hasn’t had an extra-base hit in a while, and his OPS is dropping like a rock. Andy LaRoche should have been groomed into the position (which he may as well take after Blake leaves in the offseason.) However the Dodgers, like any team in the (weak) NL West are within striking distance of the pennant.

Still in the end, Shapiro and the Indians had a stellar month. The reason they’re not winning is easy, they are plagued with injuries. 2009 could be great for the tribe. I’m still a believer in Travis Hafner, and they’ll have Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona to head their rotation. However in the end they might have made the best move by not letting go of Andy Marte. Shapiro has been burned late by past prospects which have left Cleveland and performed elsewhere (Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie to name a pair.) However if Marte performs well, they’ll be set at the hot corner for a few years now. And there’s no reason as to why I wouldn’t think he’d do so. In a good Tribe lineup, he can hit 20 HR and play stellar defense at third.

Blake makes 6.1MM in 2008. (AP Photo/Mark Avery)

I wanted to offer my (call it expert if you’d like) analysis on the two trades from yesterday. I would have commented on this yesterday, but I was down in Baltimore to watch another Orioles’ loss. Any ways I’ve heard numerous analysis points on each of the trades today. The one that I want to discuss is the deal that the Yankees and Pirates made last night, acquiring outfielder Xavier Nady and ace-reliever Damasco Marte. Nady will definitely help the outfield injuries, and Marte will be a strong eighth-inning guy which Joe Girardi will use before Mariano Rivera.

The deal has been revised, however the final list of prospects going to the Pirates include outfielder Jose Tabata, RHP Dan McCutchen, RHP Ross Ohlendorf and RHP Jeff Karstens. All in all, this is a solid haul. Karstens can start, and Ohlendorf can fill both roles. While both were seen as throw-ins in the deal, Tabata and McCutchen are the true centerpieces. Neither of the two aren’t top-flight prospects, however the Pirates have incredible outfield depth, even with the deal. Tabata and McCutchen aren’t bad (I think Sickels gave these two prospects B-ratings over the winter), however they still have some upside. Granted they didn’t acquire Ian Kennedy, but the Pirates were able to dump salary here (Nady and Marte will make around 15MM in ‘09, with Marte’s ‘06 option and Nady’s projected arbitration winnings, being a Boras client.) They can also now give an extended look to outfielders Steven Pearce and Andrew McCutchen (presumably no relation to the pitcher in the haul.)

In regards to the work done by Brian Cashman, he gets “thumbs up” here with this move. Nady fills an immediate void (with Damon and Matsui out, he could hit 10 HR between now and the postseason, currently he’s at .330 with 13 HR.) LaTroy Hawkins has struggled late, and with Joba Chamberlain now in the rotation, Marte can fill that role that Joba handled so well. In regards to what else the Yankees need to do before Thursday next week (the trading deadline), first and foremost they need more offense. As shown last night in their 1-0 win in Fenway over the Red Sox, they need more hitting (albeit Josh Beckett was pitching last night.) One area they need to look at is catching. With Jorge Posada out for the season, acquiring someone like Ramon Hernandez (.245, 11HR) from Baltimore would make sense. The Yankees are playing well, and Hernandez has been hot of late. The only downside of this move is that the Yankees would have over 20MM on the books for two catchers in ‘09, however with over 80MM coming off the books after this season, a Hernandez trade wouldn’t hurt them too much.

In regards to what the Yankees do in the offseason, the most important part is retaining their top-flight GM Cashman.

Nady’s name has been perpetually mentioned in MLB trade rumors. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

A busy day indeed in the MLB world, and I want to run down my thoughts on everything that happened today. Yes, we are also a week away from the July 31st trading deadline…

• Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals (finally) agreed to a two year/16MM deal with (their lone All-Star) Christian Guzman. He’s leading the team in hits, with a solid .310 average. He’s not the stolen base threat that he was when we came up with the Twins, but he’s still a solid bat in an otherwise weak lineup. The shortstop market this winter is very soft, so this deal isn’t too expensive or long term for the Nationals. Bowden should look at extending other players however, like third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, in my opinion.
• In more Nationals news, the Diamondbacks acquired closer Jon Rauch for minor league outfielder Emilio Bonifacio. Considering the fact that closers are a hot topic right now (see what the Orioles are asking for George Sherrill), Bowden should have got more for their closer, who’s under control modestly until 2010. Luis Ayala’s value just shot up, and that sound you just heard? That was the sound of the large contract hopes for Brandon Lyon this winter just crashing.
• The Astros acquired Randy Wolf from the Padres for minor league pitcher Chad Reineke. Again I don’t get this move on the Astros’ behalf. Granted they’re built to “win", but that’s hardly happening now. Wolf will eat innings, something that Runelvys Hernandez isn’t doing. However the Astros are only taking on more salary here. Ed Wade already sold the farm last winter, he doesn’t have anything else left to move.
• Lastly, on Sportscenter this evening, there was talk about the Yankees going after Jarrod Washburn. Washburn does eat innings, and out of Safeco however he might get lit up, especially in the tough AL East. And since the new regime took place in Seattle, they’ve been asking for the moon when dealing each of their players (just ask the Twins what they asked for Adrian Beltre.) I’m not sure personally what they could expect. Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes, I highly doubt it (Kennedy is only two years from being drafted in the Amateur Draft in 2006, he’ll be good in due course.) I heard Kei Igawa’s name being mentioned today. I like this move, and I DO think that Igawa needs to get out of New York. He does have two years and 10+MM left on his four deal contract, however if he pitches well in Safeco, it would look wise on the M’s behalf.

There has been rumors all weekend about the Brewers being after Giants second baseman Ray Durham, and they finally acquired him this afternoon, shipping to the Giants pitcher Steve Hammond and speedy Single-A outfielder Darren Ford. The Brewers were also supposed to get pitcher Jack Taschner from the Giants, but I guess that fell through.

I can understand why they’d acquire someone like C.C. Sabathia, but I don’t understand why they would give up that much for Durham. Those two prospects aren’t high caliber players, however they’re taking on some salary when acquiring Durham for the remaining three months of the season. The Brewers should have gave up Ford tops, kind of how the Orioles gave up Mike McCoy, a generic Triple-A second baseman, for Juan Castro, a generic borderline Major League shortstop. In either case, neither of these two trades should have any impact on their teams whatsoever. Ford might be an option, but he’ll be entering a crowded outfield in San Francisco in 2010.

Any ways kudos to the Giants for at least trimming some fat here.

I was going to give out my “Midseason Awards” tonight, however I was at the bar, drinking and drinking, and drinking and drinking. Any ways news broke about an hour ago about the Phillies acquiring right-handed starter Joe Blanton from the A’s for three minor league players. The Phillies didn’t cough up Carlos Carrasco, however they lost second base prospect Adrian Cardenas (I know, the A’s also acquired Eric Patterson a week ago in the Rich Harden deal from the Cubs.) Cardenas is a great pickup, since Patterson can move to the outfield (like he did earlier in the season.) They also got outfielder Matt Spencer and pitcher Josh Outman. Cardenas is the clear centerpiece of the deal.

I was thinking Cardenas could go if the Phils were to make a move at Erik Bedard, however Pat Gillick opted for Blanton instead for two reasons. One reason, he won’t cost as much as Bedard in the long run, and has a better health record. Secondly, he’ll be under team control for a year longer than Bedard (Blanton is a FA in 2011, Bedard in 2010.) Blanton had a rough first half, 11 losses with a 4.98 ERA, however he should prosper in the NL. Expect a .500 record, with a 3.80 ERA and 220+ innings going forward. Rotoworld projects Cardenas as a .300 hitting second baseman with 15 homers, assuming they don’t resign Mark Ellis (which given Patterson and Jemile Weeks, who went in this year’s amateur draft.)

In the end Blanton is a good pick up for the Phillies, and should complement Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, and Jamie Moyer nicely. Brett Myers should go to the pen, where he is highly effective. The As’? They’ve been bolstering their pitching with the trades up until this, however now have some bench depth. Billy Beane does well again in my opinion, since I think Cardenas will do well in Oakland. They have some great bench depth as well (Patterson and Matt Murton to name a pair.) Cardenas should be up for them in late 2009, and the open spot in the rotation, bring on Gio Gonzalez! Note to Beane, Gonzalez is clearly ready to pitch in the majors. So far, this appears to be a balanced trade.

More Mailbag Crap

I got an email the other day before the All Star break from Steve in Baltimore. Basic question:

What do you think Baltimore will do before the trading deadline?

Yikes that’s a generic quote. Any ways I wrote back to him with the following, and it depends on how well the team is playing come 7/31. An interesting piece today in the Baltimore Sun from Peter Schmuck. Baltimore went into the break on a skid, and as a result Andy MacPhail could start the rebuilding process once again, which was put on hold as the Orioles were strangely enough winning (they were four games over .500 just recently.)

MacPhail’s activity at the trading deadline depends solely on the team’s play over the next 12 days or so. They’ve got a tough schedule (leading currently against the Tigers), and if they’re 10 under .500 at the deadline, expect Brian Roberts and George Sherrill to be dealt for prospects. If they’re .500 or better, I expect MacPhail to keep the team together for kicks. They’ve got a tough schedule however, and with 40% of their rotation out of gas and struggling (Garrett Olsen and Radahmes Liz), the team could fall out of the Wild Card race in a hurry. Granted, I’ve grown attached to players like Sherrill over the past few months, however if they can make the team better in the long run, I wouldn’t mind if they were traded. The status of this team and the trades solely depend on their play during the next crucial weeks of July.

I received a few emails after last night’s live blog (which started in the twelfth inning nonetheless.) All of the emails were centered around my comments about Baltimore closer George Sherrill and the “Full Pack” remarks. I was to be corrected on the origination of the remark, which came from former Baltimore closer Don Stanhouse. Stanhouse had a tendency to load the bases before wiggling out of the jam. Even though the fans did get frustrated, it was actually manager Earl Weaver who smoked the “full pack” of cigarettes while his closer pitched. Stanhouse was among the leaders in saves between 1978 and 1979, and then left as a free agent thereafter and was ineffective.

Sherrill has the same problem that Stanhouse had, which was putting on runners before closing out the games. I often joke to my friends that Sherrill does this just so he could pitch out of the stretch, something he apparently loves doing (he looks back at second each time he throws a pitch.) My friends safe to say were not amused. Any ways after last night’s game, I went on and saw the ESPN game chat. One fan (presumably from the Nation), questioned why Sherrill should be in the All Star game. Granted Carlos Marmol made the team with a worse ERA and less saves than Sherrill, however the person made a good point.

Looking at the alternatives, there’s Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff. Both can mash; Markakis has an average over .300 with power (and strikeouts) and Huff is on pace to hit 35 bombs. However the AL lineup was stacked last night, the same reason why second baseman Brian Roberts didn’t make the squad (Ian Kinsler had the best stats of any second baseman last night, Chase Utley included.)

Pitching was needed last night, and Baltimore had two offerings: reliever Jim Johnson and Sherrill. Johnson’s ERA was approaching an inning per nine, however that doubled with a recent bad stretch. Sherrill also went through a bad stretch himself, but he still has 28 saves, second-most in all of baseball. Long story short, that’s why he made the club. And given the fact that Sherrill went above and beyond to pitch scoreless 2.1 innings last night (most on the squad), Terry Francona and the AL should be very happy with that effort. Sherrill retired seven of eight, and struck out Adrian Gonzalez on three pitches to get out of a bases-loaded jam.

Everyone by now should know Sherrill’s story. He pitched in an independent league until discovered by Seattle. They gave him a chance and he delivered. He was then delivered to Baltimore as part of the Erik Bedard trade. While everyone was expecting Bedard to make the AL squad, very few people expected that it would be in fact Sherrill.

This is the first year of closing for Sherrill, and he’s taken advantage of the opportunity. At times he’s been phenomenal, at times he’s still adjusting. If you throw out the series against the Pirates where he was complaining of dead arm, and the series at the end of June where pitching coach Rick Kranitz caught a mechanical flaw (Washington won a game with a Ron Belliard walk-off), Sherrill’s ERA would be a nice 2.93 instead of its current 4.08. Toss out that bad series against the Blue Jays from last week, and it shoots down to 2.27. He has six blown saves as well, and had he converted in those games, he’d have a ridiculous 34 saves, making the one horse race led by the Angels’ Francisco Rodriguez (also a ridiculous 38 saves) a two man challenge.

Given the fact that Sherrill is still on pace to close out 50 games, those numbers that he has are still All Star worthy. It should also be known that in the previous two years, he threw only 85 innings combined, as the left-handed specialist setup man for J.J. Putz. Sherrill currently has 39.2 innings, and this is only in a half season’s worth of work.

My “Full Pack” comments from last night might have sounded mean, however deep down I love the guy. He’s a great story, and is a great symbol of Baltimore’s resilience as a team. I know his name has surfaced in trade rumors, however he’s a solid reliever and is affordable (being under team control until 2011.) A lot of fans agree with me too, he’s a fan favorite in Baltimore as well. Unlike Jonathan Papelbon in Boston, a closer who always is available for a comment to the media, Sherrill is quiet, reverent and does his job. And in regards to last night, Sherrill was one of the three guys that in my opinion went out of their way and got the AL the big win. Say all you want about the Boston and Yankees rivalry, the true stars of the game were Sherrill, Joakim Soria and Scott Kazmir. Those three guys were exceptional, delivering five innings of scoreless baseball, when all of those arms were either overused or unavailable. They were the reason why the AL was able to come back and win it in the 15th.

The gutsiest performance of last night was put in by Sherrill, retiring seven of eight. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

On an aside, John Kruk agrees with me about Sherrill last night. He should have been the game’s MVP, not Drew. I love Steve Philips’ (an absolute failure with the Mets by the way) reaction to the Krukster:

See I… I… I… I mean, Sh- Sh- Sherrill was fantas… but when I look at the pitching…

Wow, what a clown. Terry Francona better have a fruit basket ready to be sent to Sherrill after his team advances to the World Series again and claims that home-field advantage. If not a fruit basket, Sherrill should hopefully get some steaks and burgers then from the Allen Brothers, courtesy of the Red Sox Nation.

Closing in the end is funny. Papelbon will come out, talk to the media to hype up the annoying Boston/Yankees rivalry, and will then blow the game for the AL in the late innings. Sherrill on the other hand, is the one closer on the stacked roster, who got the true “save” for the American League.

We’re in the bottom of the 12th now, and Baltimore’s closer George Sherrill got the final out in the top half of the inning. Joakim Soria was asked to pitch an extra inning, and went as far as he could.

Interesting point about Sherrill, fans in Baltimore call him “Full Pack", mainly since he has a tendency to load up the bases after being called in to close out the games. Fans got frustrated during this time, and would smoke a “Full Pack” of cigarettes while Sherrill put on the base runners. After Sherrill would do that, he would naturally get the remaining three outs for the save. Any ways it was kind of tough for Sherrill to add any more base runners, since the bases were loaded when he was put in by Terry Francona. All it took was three pitches from “Full Pack", and he got the final out in the inning. Adrian Gonzalez swung threw a pretty good pitch.

Give Sherrill credit though, even though he’s been struggling of late (especially against the recent series against the Blue Jays), he’s got 28 saves. Any ways we’re going to the top of the 13th. Is Francona going to stick with FP for the inning, or will he use the only pitcher left in his pen, Tampa Bay’s ace Scott Kazmir? According to the dugout chart I saw, Kazmir is still available to pitch tonight.

UPDATE (12:45): “Full Pack” is in to start the 13th. This is one hell of a game tonight.

UPDATE (12:57): Sherrill gets out of the 13th with a solid inning. This is a tough situation for Francona nonetheless; if the AL doesn’t win this he’s out of pitching options, since he’s apparently under instruction not to use Kazmir tonight, having thrown 100+ pitches on Sunday. Sherrill shouldn’t be sent out as the lamb in the 14th, and with Kazmir in the same boat, this is a bad spot for the AL. Position players pitching by the way? The AL’s bench is empty as well.

UPDATE (1:06): To the 14th we go, and “Full Pack” is out for inning number three. Sherrill is clearly the sacrificial lamb here. Give credit to the NL, they really want to snap that losing streak. By the way, that “error” from Dan Uggla should have been a hit in the bottom of the inning. He’s having a bad night, three errors and he entered as a late inning replacement.

UPDATE (1:11): 1-2-3 inning for Sherrill in the 14th. He SHOULD NOT be used in the 15th, or I’ll have the same All Star regrets for Francona that I currently have had for Cito Gaston for years. Kazmir will probably be on in the 15th, and that’s when the “tie game” clock would start ticking. Mr. Selig, this Bud’s for you.

UPDATE (1:13): Brandon Webb is currently on now, having thrown 113 pitches on Sunday. The only one left is Brad Lidge. The NL and Clint Hurdle wants this game badly. On an aside, hypothetically if the AL wins this one against Webb in the 14th, who would get the game MVP? You could give it to the batter with the walk off, or you could do what I’d do, which is give it to “Full Pack.” 2.1 innings for him is miraculous, a very tall order to ask from a one-inning closer (last year he was a one-batter specialist in Seattle.)

UPDATE (1:19): Webb was dominant in the 14th, two strikeouts showing no signs of fatigue. Give credit to Evan Longoria, who has seen little scouting reports on Webb, but then again Webb’s pitching in a league of his own. Kazmir’s on, so this should change the pace of the game hopefully (he just got his first strikeout.) I’ve never seen so much dominant pitching in an All Star game by the way. And the Taco Bell commercial with Bob Melvin is outstanding.

UPDATE (1:26): To the bottom half of the inning now, assuming Webb stays on still. Out of curiosity, I’d love to know the number of pitches that Kazmir is going to be held to this evening.

UPDATE (1:37): It’s finally over, the AL won it on Michael Young’s walk-off sac-fly. MVP? Young? Sherrill? Kazmir? It doesn’t matter, I’m going to bed.

UPDATE (1:46): Drew gets the MVP. Bullshit Red Sox nation crap. ESPN must have been in on the voting here.

The All Star game is minutes away on FOX, and after watching Josh Hamilton’s power show last night, I couldn’t be any more pumped personally. I just wanted to comment on the news of a pair of potential free agents for the Winter: Angels’ closer Francisco Rodriguez and Cardinals’ starter Kyle Lohse.

Starting with Lohse first, he was the subject of ridicule all off-season (me in particular.) We all saw the money that Carlos Silva got from the Mariners last winter (48MM over four years), and expected Lohse to receive the same from some poor team. It would have been fitting, considering that both were two one-time mediocre Twins pitchers. Lohse’s numbers were average with the Reds and Philies last year, and didn’t merit 12MM a year. The Cardinals and Dave Duncan, desperately needing starting pitching, brought Lohse in for 4.25MM. In the end, this move is paying off well for the Cards, considering the fact that Lohse has a 11-2 record with a 3.39 ERA. Scott Boras came out today saying that the door is open for the Cardinals for extension talks, however I see any extension from the Cards being highly unlikely. If Lohse wins 19, some team will give him 5 years, 60MM. And the Cardinals in the end will even look like more of a winner, after snagging those wonderful draft picks for next year’s Amateur Draft.

The other pitcher to come out saying that he’ll test the market is K-Rod. He wasn’t happy about the arbitration process he went through in the Spring, only being awarded 10MM. That money is paying off for the Angels, considering the fact that Rodriguez has 38 saves already (ten more than the second place closer, Baltimore’s George Sherill.)

Regardless of how much money he’ll get in the offseason, will he be worth the years or dollars, I can’t tell. He fell apart in the second half last season, and his ERA was the highest he’s ever had in a full season. Hamilton clubbed a walk-off shot off him last week, and could that be the signal of a second half decline? We’ll have to see come the Winter, as to whether fatigue sat in to him.

Looking at the closers who got the big money recently, if I had to pick three closers I’d give the money to comfortably, I’d take the following:

1. Joe Nathan (12MM per year)
2. Mariano Rivera (15MM per year)
3. Brad Lidge (12.5MM per year)

and three I wouldn’t take:

1. Eric Gagne (10MM per year)
2. Francisco Cordero (11.5MM per year)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (10MM per year)

I’m just not comfortable with K-Rod, who appears that he’ll break down any minute now. There could be other closers I’d lump in the second (breakdown group): B.J. Ryan (10MM) or Jose Valverde (7MM) being two more. Still in the end, K-Rod will get the record money, and this post will be a mute point. Investing 15MM in a relief pitcher who throws 65 innings is like investing 45MM in a starting pitcher who will throw 195 innings; the mathematics say that it doesn’t make any sense. Still if I had that money and had to give it to a closer, I’d chose Nathan hands down. Rivera would be a good reliable second choice, and I also think that Jonathan Papelbon will be as well. He’s only making 700K this year, and wants to set the salary “standard” for closers. Yeah he’s outspoken, but he’s good. In three years, he’ll be breaking K-Rod’s record closing salary.

The news of the starting pitchers for tomorrow’s All Star game finally came out today. Terry Francona wisely chose Cliff Lee to start for the AL, while Rockies manager Clint Hurdle chose Brewers starter Ben Sheets. Lee (after winning his twelfth game last week against the Rays) is an obvious choice, and Sheets isn’t a bad choice either. Sheets’ numbers are on the whole solid, and he’s a very solid choice to start for the National League team. Both Brandon Webb and Tim Lincecum could have been used, however both pitchers threw deep into their games yesterday. The same thing goes with Edison Volquez, who pitched seven scoreless on Saturday night. Given the rumors that I heard that both Webb and Lincecum might not even pitch on Tuesday, I see Hurdle letting Sheets go the first three. I was watching FOX on Saturday, and Sheets was Kevin Kennedy’s choice to start. The strikeouts he’ll accumulate will (to paraphrase) “set the tone” for the National League.

In either case, this is simply another feather that Sheets can put in his cap when he becomes a free agent in the fall. He’s been pitching dominant, and more importantly has been healthy this season. He hasn’t pitched since July 9th, when he struck out 11 Rockies in six innings, so he should be well-rested for tomorrow. And when his big free agent payday comes, he’ll be feeling even better. What will it take to sign him? Probably he’ll get three years and a value amount somewhere in between the 45MM that Jason Schmidt got from the Dodgers and the 52MM that Jake Peavy got from the Padres over the Winter.

Some more thoughts about the All Star festivities:

• Some of my co-workers aren’t interested in tonight’s Home Run derby, saying the true home run hitters aren’t in it. Yeah, Josh Hamilton is on a tear (21 HR, 95 RBI), but I do agree with them that Ryan Howard (ML-leading 28 HR) should be hitting. I know the anemic .230 average is a turnoff, but it is the home run derby. I’m still going to watch it though. On an aside, Howard is destroying the competition in the “strikeout derby.”
• I saw some of yesterday’s Futures Game, and was excited with what I saw. Matt LaPorta looks like the real deal, and Indians fans will love him. The same thing goes for Baltimore with Jake Arrieta, who tossed a scoreless inning yesterday. Brett Anderson for the A’s also threw a scoreless inning. He came over in the Winter from the Diamondbacks for Dan Haren. My prediction, come September 80% of Oakland’s rotation will have come from the Nick Swisher and Haren trades (Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Anderson and Gio Gonzalez.) One last name to remember: Hector Rondon in the Indians’ orginization. He was throwing 94 yesterday, and is only 170 pounds. So far good numbers, however if he’d gain some weight, his numbers and velocity could be scary.
• A prediction as to who will win Tuesday’s game, I’m sticking with what I said at the start of the season: the National League. This is the year they break their losing streak to the AL. Oddly enough, for fun I predicted Chase Utley to win the MVP of the game. The strange thing is that he’s the clear MVP choice for the NL this season. And for this evening’s Home Run derby, I like Josh Hamilton. And after reading this piece he wrote, you will too.

The 79th MLB All Star game starts tomorrow at 8PM ET on FOX.

I was watching some interesting pitching this week. The notable starter that came to my mind was Rich Harden, who made a nice debut in Chicago yesterday (5.2IP, 0ER, 10K.) Had the bullpen not blown the lead in the ninth for him, Harden would have gotten the win for the Cubs in his debut (the team ultimately came back in extra innings for a 8-7 win over the Giants.) I also saw Mark Mulder make his season debut this week against the Phillies. He looked sharp for the first batter he faced (freezing Jimmy Rollins on a 89mph pitch), however he then walked the next two hitters, and then walked back to the disabled list shortly after that.

This week we saw two pitchers make their season debuts for their teams. Each team invested heavilly in their respective pitcher as well, and still aren’t sure what they’re going to be getting. We all know the heapload of prospects that Walt Jocketty sent to Billy Beane in Oakland for Mulder (Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton.) After Mulder hit free agency a couple of years ago, he chose to go back to St. Louis instead of accepting other offers, like from Cleveland. It’s safe to say that the results of the 14MM that he received from the Cardinals back in 2006 have been disappointing. His curve isn’t exactly the same beauty pitch that it was in 2003, and his fastball barely hits 90 anymore.

Harden yesterday looked solid. His fastball was in the low 90s, however the movement on his pitches made Giants hitters look foolish as they swung through the majority of his 10 strikeouts (then again they’re not the best of hitters. You would have thought that Mariano Rivera was on the mound throwing his cut-fastball.) In either case, as to what the Cubs should expect from Harden, the jury is still out. Is it safe to say that Sean Gallagher will accumulate more wins in the next five years than Harden? Yeah that’s possible (so far it’s Gallagher 1, Harden 0.)

Looking at the trades that Billy Beane has made in Oakland, he rarely ends up a loser in his deals. Does he know more on the pitchers than the other teams do? Not sure, however he’s taking good advantage of the “sell high” notion of when to move pitching, something Andy MacPhail did when he moved Erik Bedard to the Mariners. Still the one thing that I’ve been seeing is that teams are now starting to follow Beane’s stategy when it comes to starting pitching, which is to simply use each pitcher to their fullest.

There are a few starters that come to mind now, Brandon Webb in Arizona, Cole Hamels in Philadelphia and Jeremy Guthrie in Baltimore. These three hurlers are on pace to throw 240 innings. They’re not bad innings either, considering the fact that each starter has an ERA no worse than 3.50. However teams are starting to suck their pitchers dry, especially while they’re under control of the teams very cheaply (arbitration years in particular.) It’s to a pitcher’s advantage when they hit free agency however, since they’ll most likely receive a healthy contract. However, buyer beware for the new team, since these hurlers accumulated so many innings before they hit their prime years.

Am I suggesting that C.C. Sabathia is going to break down after he signs this offseason? I’m not sure, however he’s thrown so many innings himself, and looking back at workhorses who received large contracts (Kevin Brown in particular), they’re prime for a breakdown in media res of the contract. It’s an interesting strategy that Beane’s doing in Oakland. There are so many benefits for having the pitchers throw seven or eight innings instead of six. For one, there’s a lesser dependence on the bullpen needed. In today’s state, if a pitcher throws five or six innings, the manager will then turn over the reins to each of his specially-aligned bullpen chips. If the starter is looking sharp in the sixth, let him go that extra inning or two.

Before 2005 or so, Oakland had its “Big Three” running very well. Tim Hudson ate quality innings for the A’s, and was then spun to the Braves. He at times has been superb, and at times has looked worn down. Everyone knows the Mulder story, especially since he was a big-innings eater for the A’s. Barry Zito? When he hit free agency in 2006, Scott Boras sold him as a highly-durable starter. That claim is correct, since Zito threw at least 200 innings in all of his full seasons in Oakland. The first year of his 126MM contract with the Giants, he threw 196.2. Could the same fate exist for starters like Haren, Gallagher, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Gio Gonzalez, Joe Blanton, and even (the AL ERA-leader) Justin Duchscherer (who’s looking more like an eight inning starter each time out?)

Fact: Zito threw 9 CG from 2000 to 2003. Since then he has yet to throw another. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

The only pitcher who seemed to escape the wrath of Beane was Aaron Harrang, who achieved success after leaving to Cincinnati. In the end however, Chicago got a very good pitcher in Harden. However as I said before, Lou Pinella and his staff need to use him meticulously. Harden should be a five/six inning starter tops. They have the deep bullpen, and other starters are there to eat the innings that Harden can’t (Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly being two.) Still the five innings that the Cubs will get from Harden are probably the best five innings that they can get (just ask the Giants hitters.) Harden won’t be a rental for the Cubs, since his 7MM club option for next season will more than likely be exercised. And if the Cubs want to get the most from him, like all pitchers that have escaped Beane’s pen, the Cubs will need to handle Harden with serious care.

I’m watching ESPN now, and the Phillies and Cardinals are on for the Wednesday night game of the week (the Red Sox already played today, and destroyed the Twins for that matter. If it wasn’t for that little problem, they’d be on this evening.) Any ways as most people know the Phillies are reeling; the Mets and even the Marlins are streaking. The Phillies have basically the same window for winning that the Brewers do, which is right now. They can’t expect Jamie Moyer to pitch again next season, and Ryan Howard is a possibility to be traded to an American League team.

I’m looking at the contenders in the National League right now, and the teams that will be contending come October have strong legitimate aces. The Cubs, they have Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden. The Brewers of course have C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets (and even a Yovani Gollardo if he returns.) The Diamondbacks (when out of their funk) are led by Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. The Mets have Johan Santana and John Maine, and the Cardinals are led oddly enough by Kyle Lohse. Mark Mulder makes his 2008 debut this evening against the Phillies.

So going back to my original question, who do the Phillies have in their deck of aces? Cole Hamels is a legitimate ace, with a “plus” change up. Injury concerns aren’t a problem this year, with Hamels being on pace to hurl 240 innings in 2008. Yes their bullpen is amazing, however outside of Hamels their rotation is not as deep as their league competition. Moyer has been solid of late, as has Kyle Kendrick. However neither of the two pitchers are front-line starters (Kendrick predicts to be a #4 starter down the road.) The Phillies need to make a move to acquire Erik Bedard from the Mariners, and pull away from the division.

Looking at the playoff contenders, the Phillies would be matched up against each of the teams’ two aces in the first two games of the NLCS. Hamels would start game one, Bedard should start game two. If they don’t acquire Bedard, it could be an early exit for them in the NLCS (assuming they make it.)

The window of winning for the Phillies is now, and they need to make this move. Pat Gillick knows the Mariners, and should hopefully be able to make a move for the left-handed ace. Yes Bedard has injury questions, and is reluctant to talk to the media. However Bedard would be around for the Phillies in 2009. Yes the Mariners gave up a ton to Baltimore to acquire the pitcher, however they should now be focused on damage control and repair the franchise. The Mariners need pitching obviously. Carlos Carrasco would be the one prospect to give up, I could also see them giving up left-hander Joe Savery. The Mariners might even throw in a reliever, like Mark Lowe. In either case, it’s clear. Given the recent trades in the past few days, this is a move that the Phillies need to get done.

One day after the Brewers get C.C. Sabathia, the Cubs just acquired Rich Harden from the Athletics. They also acquired Chad Gaudin, who should now finally start after being banished to the bullpen in Oakland.

Billy Beane and the A’s make out equally well. They acquire Sean Gallagher, who should immediately be thrown into their rotation. They also acquired underrated outfielder Matt Murton, talented infielder/outfielder prospect Eric Patterson (brother of Reds’ Corey Patterson), and catching prospect Josh Donaldson. The three prior players are all MLB-ready players for Oakland.

A few days ago, I speculated that Gaudin could be traded, having been banished to the bullpen in April albeit pitching well for the A’s. There have been rumors of Harden moving to the Cubs, and I didn’t expect the move to happen so quickly. When Sabathia was moved to the Brewers, I labeled Milwaukee as my favorite in the division. This trade suddenly changes things. Yes Harden has injury problems, however when he’s dominant he’s one of the best in the game. The Carlos Zambrano/Harden pair equally matches up well with the Sabathia/Ben Sheets duo for the Brewers. And Gaudin, a very strong and healthy arm, easily gives the Cubs depth to replace Gallagher.

Even though Oakland is well in the thick of things, this trade doesn’t overly hurt them. Even though they lost their dominant ace in Harden, they still have All-Star Justin Duchscherer to lead the rotation. Gallagher, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland and Joe Blanton round out the rotation. The A’s also get some bench depth with this move.

Any ways this move came as a surprise, and now it’s time for the Cardinals to make a move… the ball is clearly in their court.

Again a great trade for both teams. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

A few hours after I wrote something on what I heard from Ken Rosenthal, the Indians and Brewers finally came to an agreemment for C.C. Sabathia. The details will be known later, however Matt LaPorta is all but certain to be included in this trade. As I said earlier, I love this trade, for it benefits both clubs. Mark Shapiro and the Indians had to make this move, especially while the Brewers’ offer was still on the table. The Indians’ playoff chances are now slim, given the team’s injuries and the insurgence of the White Sox and Twins in their division. Granted they could have held onto Sabathia for the remaining half of the season, however if he could help the team land a player like LaPorta, a player looking like a can’t miss player once he hits the majors (20 HR at Double-A.) The funny thing is that Shapiro could give Sabathia a strong offer and bring back the pitcher as a free agent come fall.

The Brewers are playing teriffic baseball and likewise had to make this move. The team hasn’t had a playoff berth in over 25 years, and their window of winning is closing rapidly. Ben Sheets is a free agent after the season, as is Eric Gagne. And Prince Fielder is expected to be dealt, given the fact that he’s about to hit his first year of salary arbitration (as we all remember and to beat the deadest of horses, Ryan Howard was awarded 10MM last season by his panel of arbitrators.)

Like the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee is stocked in the farm with coveted prospects, especially at Double-A. To acquire a pitcher like Sabathia, LaPorta was needed. However their rotation is now scary. Sabathia and Sheets make up a terrifying 1-2 punch. The team also has the steady Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush, who pitched a great game Saturday night. And they also have Yovanni Gollardo, a dominant pitcher when healthy. I know it’s early, but I’m picking the Brewers as my team in the Central, a team that should now make the playoffs. Any ways after this move, the ball is now in Jim Hendry’s court. The Cubs have suspect pitching, as do the Cardnials. I’m curious to see the moves that these two teams will make before the trading deadline. I’m not saying that the Brewers are now a perfect team (they really need bullpen help also), but they have the starting pitching and offense that could help them go on some sort of meteoric tear. The Brewers could be this year’s version of the Colorado Rockies.

According to mlb.com, we’re a good 25 days away from the July 31st trading deadline. It wasn’t as exciting as it was in years past, when the deadline was at midnight instead of at 4pm in the afternoon, however prominent players have been traded in recent years. It’s not that players can’t be traded after the deadline, however if a player is traded in July, he won’t have to pass through waivers.

There are a good number of teams in the playoff hunt, and I’m curious to see what they’ll acquire. Will the A’s acquire another Kevin Appier for their playoff push? What will the Red Sox and Yankees do this month? I’m not sure, but I wanted to chime in on a series of topics.

The Sabathia Sweepstakes

A few months ago, I expected the Indians and Tigers to rebound and push for the AL Central title. The Tigers are doing so, however the Indians are last in their division. The main reason why is because of their lack of offense. Grady Siezmore is “en fuego", however Victor Martinez (albeit injured) is homer-less. Travis Haffner has been a disappointment.

Since the Twins and White Sox have been in command of recent, Mark Shapiro should probably do the best thing and raise the white flag on the season, and trade away the team’s staff ace C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia, 6-8 3.38 ERA with a MLB-leading 123 strikeouts, has been on a tear of late. Many teams are coveting the potential free agent, who should command a contract in excess of 100MM come this winter. The Rays, Phillies and Dodgers could all use him, however the Brewers have apparently made the best offer for the ace. Granted if the Brewers were to acquire Sabathia, they’ll most likely be coughing up Matt LaPorta, their 2007 first round draft pick.

I was watching the Red Sox/Yankees game on FOX yesterday (it was all that was on), and they went to a cut to Ken Rosenthal, who expects this deal to go down sometime before the All Star break (this week.) I see the Brewers winning the sweepstakes, and the deal would definitely benefit both parties. The Indians need hitting and LaPorta would be ideal. The Brewers who are hot now, would definitely use Sabathia. This is the deal that I would make. The Brewers haven’t been to the postseason since 1982, and their window of winning is closing very quickly (Prince Fielder could be traded in the winter?) The two teams have a history of making successful trades (e.g. Richie Sexon in his “good” years), and this one would be a deal that I would approve. Besides, the Brewers could then get the two compensatory picks after Sabathia leaves in the winter (he’ll all-but-sure be a Type A free agent.)

A C.C. trade would make sense for both teams (AP photo c/o CNN.)

Spelling Relief

I was watching the Mets/Phillies game last night, and watched the Phillies’ MLB-best bullpen implode and let the Mets come back (Tom Gordon and Rudy Seanez were the culprits.) Was that the reason why they then gave Brad Lidge a three year/37.5MM extension this morning? (Great move for both parties by the way, especially on the club for only getting him to sign for three years.)

The main arm that’s been rumored is the Rockies’ Brian Fuentes. The Rockies have depth with Manny Corpas pitching well, and Taylor Buchholz being un-hittable, so Fuentes is expendable. He’s got closer experience, and is a free agent come fall. In other words he’ll command a deal around 5MM per season. Still a number of teams are coveting him, and they’re all the AL East contenders; the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. The Rays are the interesting choice, and would obviously make a move to prevent either of the two teams from acquiring the top setup man.

The two arms that I saw the Rays ready to give up for Fuentes are either Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson. Personally that’s too much for Fuentes, Davis in particular. A comparable trade is what the Red Sox gave up last July for Eric Gagne. The Rays should give up a starter with some MLB experience, someone much like the Kason Gabbard, who went to Texas in the Gagne trade. Gabbard is fighting injuries, and at times has been effective, however Theo Epstein was able to persuade Jon Daniels to take Gabbard instead of someone like Jon Lester or even Clay Buchholz. The Rays should be showcasing Jason Hammel or J.P. Howell, or even Edwin Jackson. Jackson would make the most sense, since David Price is all but ready to step in and contribute for the Rays. Yes the team is winning now, but trading raw talent like Davis or Hellickson is foolish. It’s something that Bill Bavasi would do.

Mahay, Mahay!

Back in December, I listed my five personal free agent signings of the offseason. Two of them were Royals’ signings. Jose Guillen, at times maligned by the press, is now one of the final write-in choices for the AL All Star team. He was brought in to revitalize their offense, which he is doing. When Guillen hits, the Royals mash. When Guillen doesn’t hit, then the Royals get, um, no-hit. The other player I liked was their signing of Ron Mahay, 2 years for 8MM, whom I speculated that the Royals could spin off for someone else this year. The Yankess wanted him last winter, and could easily want him again come the trading deadline. Mahay is clearly doing his job by the way (4-0, 2.03 ERA.)

Closing Rumors

Some final food for thought:

• The Orioles are a .500 team, and have plenty of chips to trade. Granted there’s their All Star George Sherill, who essentially has pitched the same number of innings now as he did last year, when he was a left-handed specialist. Baltimore also has Brian Roberts (like Guillen a write-in choice) available. Aubrey Huff is also having a fine year and could go for a good price. There are other names as well that could move.
• The A’s are easily buyers now instead of sellers, and will most likely be holding onto Joe Blanton and Rich Harden. I could see Chad Gaudin (relegated to the pen) being moved for a good bat.
• The Dodgers and Orioles need shortstops. Outside of Felipe Lopez, Jack Wilson and David Eckstein, there isn’t much available.
• Matt Holliday, an NL All Star, may or may not be available. If he is moved expect the bounty to be high. The same goes with the Braves and Mark Teixeira. The Braves are still in contention however.
• If the Yankees trade for help, expect Ian Kennedy to go. If the Red Sox make a trade, they’ll have to cough up Justin Masterson. Any team will ask for these two players, since both Joba Chamberlain and Buchholz have been deemed untouchable by their respective teams (and rightfully so.)

I wanted to put up some thoughts about Johan Santana tonight, as well as addresss the mailbag.

The Unheralded Ace

I’m currently watching ESPN right now, and as surprising as ever the Red Sox are on. Seriously, out of all the major league teams, why can’t they show some other teams? The Cubs and upstart Orioles are playing now, but I’m relegated to watch the Nation. They were on over the weekend on FOX for me, and they were on Monday night as well (preempting a great Brewers game where Ben Sheets was pitching a gem.)

I’m not sure why ESPN has so much love for the Red Sox, however there are other teams equally worthy of attention. For instance, there are FOUR TEAMS IN THE AL EAST OVER .500. Any ways, enough of that rant. I was watching the unofficial flagship station for the Red Sox on Monday, and they brought up the grand slam that Mets’ ace Johan Santana served up, albeit to Felix Hernandez, the first hit by an AL pitcher in 37 years.

Of course the Mets fans are worrying about their ace. They coughed up four players for him in February, and then signed him to the seven year deal for 150MM. His stats through 16 starts, 7-6 with a 2.93 ERA. He has 95K and only 28BB in 107.2 innings, a terrific 4:1 K/BB ratio. He also went over seven innings in ten of his starts. However Mets fans are for some reason disgusted. Now if he had three more wins or so, they’d be quiet, but this isn’t the case.

My opinion for Mets fans, sit down and be quiet. You have the best pitcher in the world, and he’s doing everything that they expected. However the team is under .500, but only four games out of first in the NL East. For Santana to be effective, he needs more run support (even Jeremy Guthrie would be disgusted with the support he’s getting.) He also needs more help from his bullpen, who like to blow his leads. And his defense clearly let him down (NOTE: he only gave up one earned run on Monday, and yes he coughed up the granny to King Felix.) When the rest of the pitching wears down in the NL East in September, and the Mets begin their push for the pennant, Mets fans will be as glad as hell they have the ace come playoff time.

Mets fans have what most teams don’t, a legitimate staff ace. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

The Late Innings Mailbag

I get mail from time to time, and if it’s baseball-related I’ll respond. I got a great email today from Forest T. in Minneapolis this afternoon (oddly enough, he’s a Brewers fan.) He sent me a great video today on (Marlins’ first round pick) Kyle Skipworth, minutes after he signed with the club today over lunch (it might have been the one posted on MLBTR today, I’m not sure.)

As I responded to him, his email only confirmed my belief in Skipworth. I think the Marlins made an outstanding move in the draft. Granted they could have took a big bat like Justin Smoak (the Rangers did), Skipworth was the best hitting catcher in the draft. Granted he’s raw, but he could be big and advance quickly. I said that he could be the best catcher that the Marlins had since Charles Johnson during their initial World Series run. It never hurts to draft an offensive-minded catcher (see Baltimore and Matt Weiters), who could easily become a great MLB regular, switching positions as his career goes on. Skipworth was a clear sleeper in the draft, and was one of the many outstanding top 15 picks that I’m excited to see in a few years.

By the way, email me any thoughts or comments about baseball. If it’s a good email, I’ll comment about it next time I do a mailbag.

In all fairness, there were three managers canned this week, so far. I was going to write up a piece about Willie Randolph and the Mets on Tuesday (along with his other three coaches), however the new-regime of the Mariners then ousted John McLaren a few days later. And to put the icing on the cake, the last place Blue Jays gave John Gibbons the pink slip on Friday.

Oddly enough, these were the first three managers to be fired this season. Looking back at our “Front Office Canning” scorecard, this makes three managers and two GMs. Still I can understand why all three managers lost their jobs. Gibbons’ team has been sputtering all season, even with the solid pitching staff the team possesses. McLaren’s ship was doomed the minute it left port in March. Randolph is another story however. There was a fair amount of backlash to this firing, especially from Ken Rosenthal.

I can understand that the manager goes whenever the team is struggling. The front office does this moreover as a service to the fans if anything. Back in April, when the Rangers were struggling, Ron Washington’s job was in jeopardy. However the team turned it around and is now a .500 ball club. His job should be safe, but if I had to postulate the next managers to leave the nest, it would probably be a couple of NL Central managers, Cecil Cooper of the Astros and Ned Yost of the Brewers. Both teams spent heavily last winter, and are seeing mediocre results from each team. Speaking of Cooper, here’s an interesting article I grabbed out of the Baltimore Sun, after his team got swept in Baltimore against the Orioles.

Some last minute notes about the managers, Joe Torre’s job being safe in Los Angeles? I say yes, however if anyone takes the hit from the club’s underachievement it would be general manager Ned Colletti. Joe Girardi in New York as a Yankee? The Yankees are playing better baseball of late, and Hank finally shut the fuck up (thank god.) His job should also be safe.

Picking the front runners for the manager of the year wouldn’t be too hard. The National League would be an easy pick, since I’d easily take Tony LaRusa. I had no idea that the Cardinals would be where they are now (Buster Olney agrees.) The American League is a different story. Yes, Mike Scioscia is doing a top-notch job with the Angels, the same thing goes with Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox. Terry Francona is also doing a solid job, as is Joe Maddon with the Rays. Coming from an Orioles fan however, I’d give it to Dave Trembley. He’s starting to get some respect from the media, and his team is four games over .500 (wow!) Not bad for a manger whose team was expected to barely win 55 games this year. And with Cito Gaston back in Toronto (I still won’t forgive him), the AL East is clearly the most exciting and competitive division in all of baseball right now.

Yeah I know, I’m late on this story, like your girlfriend is this month (lewd it is I know.) The Mariners did the inevitable this afternoon and gave GM Bill Bavasi the axe. Going by my count, this is GM #2 to get canned this year, the first being Wayne Krivsky with the Reds. However unlike the Krivsky firing, the case with Bavasi was moreover a matter of “when?” then “will?”

Bavasi has had a rough year, both personally (he lost his father earlier in the season), and on the field (with his M’s being the worst team in baseball.) I know that I could iterate through all of the mistakes that Bavasi made, however to paraphrase what RotoWorld said, I don’t want to fill up my server.

As to where the team goes now, I’m not sure; as most Mariner fans can vouch, they have a train wreck on their hands. They have two under-performing infield corners in Richie Sexon and Adrian Beltre, both of whom are owed 30MM. Jose Vidro is taking at bats from Jeff Clement, Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Bautista (albeit winning 16 games in 2007) are pitching not their value, and the bullpen is a wreck, with J.J. Putz on the DL once again. And if Brandon Morrow was even to be considered a starter (yes, he’s closing now with the Putz injury), they should have been grooming him since Spring Training; the Joba Rules not applying.

I love reading Jason Churchill’s Prospect Insider, a M’s blog, and he’s been posting interesting pieces each time Bavasi made a blunder. One thing the Mariners have going for them is their outstanding scouting and player development. Carlos Trufnel is still an outstanding shortstop of the future, and Phillip Aumonte is the team’s best pitching prospect (being a year fresh out of the draft.) However the system could be much deeper.

The biggest blow to the club in my opinion was the acquisition of Erik Bedard from the Orioles. The team could use Adam Jones now in the outfield, with Brad Wilkerson (expectedly) designated and Wladimir Balentin hitting for power only. And the loss of George Sherill clearly tore apart the team’s best strength from 2007, its bullpen. Not to pour more salt into the wound, but three pitching prospects were coughed up in addition, one being Chris Tillman.

Bavasi was probably the last GM out there that still hands out large dollars to over-performing veterans, the last being the ridiculous 25MM he just gave to catcher Kenji Johjima. Even the over-spending stopped in Texas, where Jon Daniels is committed to using his team’s strength (its young talent) to the team’s advantage.

As to where the Mariners should go from here, I’m not sure. People are suggesting a full rebuilding effort, but it won’t be too easy. The only player that they have that would obtain some value (outside of Putz) is Bedard, and the front office would clearly require an equal bounty to trade the talented yet reclusive staff ace. Long story short, Seattle has a mess on its hands. Still in a day when the biggest story was Jay Gibbons going to the Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks (aka the Evil Empire II), Seattle fans (Churchill included) can now sleep soundly this evening, and hope that the new leadership is able to turn this Titanic around. Like all things in life, it’s not going to be easy.

With the season being three eights over, and it being one strange season indeed, I wanted to hand out a few awards, no glamorous ceremony needed:

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton, TEX. You could make the case that either he or teammate Milton Bradley should get this award. As of today, he’s fourth in the AL with his .322 average, and is leading the league with 17 homers and 68 RBI. Him and Bradley are big reasons why the Rangers turned their season around (they’re currently a .500 ball club.)Preseason pick: Alex Redriguez

NL MVP: Chipper Jones, ATL. Not to take away from the magical season that Chase Utley is having with the Phillies, if Jones keeps up at the pace he’s going, this will be his final season’s line: .421 AVG 39 HR, 107 RBI. Wow. Preseason pick: David Wright

AL Cy Young: Since December, I’ve been predicting that Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander would be a “lock” for 20 wins. If Verlander is going to reach that mark, he’ll need to win essentially every start going forward. If I had to pick the pitcher that would win the award at this point, I’d give it to the Angels’ Joe Saunders.

Saunders always had terrific stuff, however was never given the opportunity to continually start. In the offseason, his chances of starting got bleak, especially with the team bringing in Jon Garland. However injuries to Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey gave Saunders his chance. Saunders’ response: nine wins and a 2.63 ERA. Now with Lackey back strong, and Escobar also pitching very well (eight wins), the Angels are set to run away with the AL West.

Early on in the season, Cliff Lee was the runaway pick for this award. He’s still pitching well, but has been reeling of late. Preseason pick: Verlander

NL Cy Young: When the Mets acquired Johan Santana from the Mets back in February, everyone expected him to be the runaway choice for the Cy. Santana is pitching well, however few would have imagined that Brandon Webb would have gotten off to his 11-2, 2.58 ERA start. He’s the easy choice for this award, however special consideration should be given to Edison Volquez and Tim Lincecum, both of whom are pitching very well. Preseason pick: Santana

AL Rookie of the Year: When the season opened, everyone expected Tampa Bay to not promote Evan Longoria until the end of May, to push back his free agency date. The middle of April came, Longoria came up, and within a few days he was given a six year contract extension, where the total value of the contract could exceed 45MM. Longoria’s average should rise ultimately (now at .250), but is flashing the power (8 HR) and the glove. At the end of the year, he should have the award in his hands, even with an off-injured Jacoby Elsbury fighting hard for the award himself. Preseason pick: Longoria

NL Rookie of the Year: The Reds are slowly working their young talent into the majors, and when the season opened everyone expected this award to come down to two teammates: first baseman Joey Votto and outfielder Jay Bruce. Votto is making the clear impact, however Bruce has been on fire since his promotion from Triple-A. Both of which should end up with fine numbers, and I think in the end Votto will have the better stats, since he’s played more of the season. I still see the sports writers giving this award to Bruce though. Preseason pick: Votto

Divisional Disarray

If I had to pick out the toughest division in the majors, right now it would either be between the AL East or the NL Central. All teams in each division are around or above .500. The AL East is tough on the Yankees, who are currently occupying the cellar to themselves. The NL Central isn’t any easier on its opponents, with the Pirates and Reds both playing .500 ball themselves.

The worst division? It’s probably going to be the NL West, especially with the Diamondbacks playing very poor of late. The strangest division? It’s probably the AL Central. ESPN’s Jayson Stark agrees, we mentioned something about it a while ago too.

So I saw the first 30 or so picks of today’s MLB draft, then had a few beers. Actually I had quite a few beers, and typing is rather difficult right now. Any ways these are my thought’s on today’s MLB draft.

Prognostication to the Extreme!

I give credit to people like MLB.com’s Jonothan Mayo and ESPN’s Keith Law. For a whole month, there have been mock drafts galore leading up to today’s main event. Most of the first five picks were dead on, up until today’s news of Buster Posey asking for 12MM up front. Yikes. That obviously caused the Rays to shift gear and select (obviously) Tim Beckham. He, if he moves quickly enough, could be the team’s shortstop in 2011. He looks like another Upton brother to me, someone who could hit .300 with 25 bombs and a ton of stolen bases, clearly the fantasy champ on the board. As to where they’d play him, not sure. They moved B.J. Upton to the outfield, and the move is working off very well for them.

Regardless I’ve seen so much negative press about the Rays, e.g. the “rich getting richer.” Yes the Rays are (or were) a first place team, however most of their games have been played at home. However they have been ingenious with their drafts. There could be a six year window of dominance for this team. So why is the media turning against the Rays? Yes, they’re winning but who cares? They’re a small market team who is now lead by a great front office. Look at their system, and if you’re an AL East opponent, you’d be scared. I know ESPN would be disappointed, since they’re competing against the glorious Red Sox Nation.

The Small-Market Perspective

As I said before, the two through four spots were pretty much expected. Pittsburgh manned up and took Pedro Alvarez, the Royals took Eric Hosmer and Baltimore grabbed Brian Matusz. People had these three positions locked in for a while, with Buster Posey going to the Giants thereafter. Long story short, this is how Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Baltimore should have done it. Pittsburgh got the best overall hitter, K.C. got the best pure power threat, and Baltimore got the best college arm on the board.

The main thing that I love about these moves is that teams know that these players will cost some money, at least around 4MM each. I’m glad to see that they didn’t let these players slip down to the later rounds, for large-market teams to snag. Each of these three teams are making the right moves, and have been at times playing competitive baseball. Yes I know Scott Boras was a factor here (e.g. Alvarez’s “advisor"), but the logic is the following: play the dough for six years of team control for a young talented player or pay 48MM for four years of Carlos Silva.

Doh! I’ve been warning the Mariners since November about Silva. Get used to seeing expressions like this Seattle fans. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

Talent Roundup

Long story short, the talent in this year’s draft didn’t match up to the talent in last year’s draft, at least in my opinion. There was no David Price this year, who should be worth every penny as last year’s #1 pick (he most likely will be in the Rays’ bullpen come August believe it or not.) Teams are now willing to pay the money for the talent this year though. Long story short, Matt Weiters shouldn’t have slipped as far as he did last year. Yes, he’s a Boras client, but you’re getting an all-world catcher. I give Baltimore credit too, they manned up and got Weiters and pitcher Jake Arietta last year (another Boras pitcher.) Yes they paid some dough for them, but then again these two players should be in Double-A come July. The same can’t be said about their previous first round picks, that is Billy Rowell and Brandon Snyder, both of whom are still stewing away in Single A.

Final Thoughts

Yeah some closing thoughts about today’s draft. Granted it’s not as fun as the NFL draft, but I still love it as a distraction from work. Some odds and ends:

• The Giants and Buster Posey (#5) should be a good match. He’ll apparently cost some money, but I’m not sure what to expect. People are comparing him to a Josh Bard-type catcher. I’m not sure what that means, but I feel that a catcher who calls a good game and manages a pitching staff well is worth just as much as a poor defensive catcher who can slug 20 bombs a year. Yeah they said Posey’s bat is improving, but I doubt he’ll reach Joe Mauer levels. The best hitting catcher in this year’s draft was Kyle Skipworth, who was selected one pick later by the Marlins. I think he has the higher upside in my opinion.
• I really liked Aaron Crow, I’m not sure why the White Sox picked Gordon Beckham (no relation to Tim) at #8. Give some credit to the Nats here though. Gordon isn’t that bad though. He apparently needs to work on his swing (got some holes), but has wicked hair, if that counts.
• I’m not sure what the Astros saw in catcher Jason Castro (#10.) Much better players could have been picked; I’m not sure what J.R. Towels did to piss off Ed Wade and company. Long story short, the Astros just boarded the fail-boat here.
• I like how the Rangers got Justin Smoak at #11 (can’t believe he went this far down, too-polished of a hitter); same goes with the Reds and Yonder Alonso. I really like the Ethan Martin pick the Dodgers got. Apparently he’s one of the sheer-high school talents that teams didn’t want to risk picking early. I’ll be watching him.

Out of all the news today on this Memorial Day weekend, even with Jay Bruce being (finally) called up to the Reds, one story that got to me most was the passing of former Cubs pitcher Jeremi Gonzalez. He was struck by lightning in Venezuela. He passed away at the age of 33.

When Gonzalez first came up in 1997, I honestly thought that he’d be a big part of the Cubs future. He had a solid rookie season, going 11-9 with a 4.25 ERA (he finished ninth in the Rookie of the Year voting.) However after that he struggled. He ultimately finished up playing with the Brewers, as well as parts of Japan as well. He had great stuff, however could never pan himself out thereafter. Maybe it was because Kerry Wood was coming up, I’m not sure. Still, Ozzie Guillen had some nice remarks to say about the former pitcher.

In the past week, there have been several mega-deals, that is players giving up money (in terms of their arbitration years) for security. The Marlins inked (or will soon officially ink) Hanley Ramirez to a bargain six-year deal worth 70MM. The Rays gave a little more money than was expected to Scott Kazmir in his three-year, 28.5MM deal. And yesterday, the Brewers inked Ryan Braun to a eight year, 45MM contract (which starts in 2007 with this season’s salary.)

If Ramirez gave up some money for security in his contract, Braun clearly did the same here, if not more. His first year of arbitration would have been worth 10MM alone. Nonetheless, when a player is presented with a total-value contract of 50MM, it’s difficult to pass up the guaranteed security, even if knowing that he’ll make more going year-to-year. Braun had to cough up some valuable free agent years as well, so when the contract is all said and done, he’ll be 32 years old, still in his prime and ready for another contract. It’s easy to say that for Brewers fans, this is the best thing that has happened to the team all season, giving the series of issues plaguing the team (injuries to Gallardo and Capuano, 10MM closer Eric Gagne’s inconsistencies.)

Braun won the Rookie of the Year award in 2007, clubbing 34 homers and driving in 94 runs in the process. What’s amazing is that he was called up in late May. If you look at his career statistics up to this point, he has hit 40 homers and 40 doubles, and still hasn’t played an entire season. People criticized his defense, however moving him to the outfield was also a good move, since he hasn’t committed an error in 39 games there. And his bat is starting to come around as well, shaking off his early “sophomore slump.”

The last Brewer to win the Rookie of the Year was Pat Listach, who won it 15 years ago. His first season in 1992 was incredible, he even had 18 MVP votes thrown his way. If you combine him and Darryl Hamilton, the top of the lineup stole 100 bases for the Brewers that year. However most Brewer fans remember what happened to him shortly thereafter. Major League pitching caught up to him, as well as injuries. He was essentially done in 1997 with the Astros. Listach is now the current manager of the Cubs Triple-A team.

Will Braun follow the same path that Listach did? It’s highly unlikely. The main difference between these two hitters is that Braun is not over-matched when facing Major League pitching. Simply put, he’s one of the best pure hitters that I’ve seen in some time. He has 40 homer pop too, and can also steal a base. If the Brewers could only sign one of Braun or (first baseman) Prince Fielder, I’d prefer that they sign Braun.

This signing is just a start of the long-term deals that should be handed out in Milwaukee. Fielder and Corey Hart should also receive contracts, in building up a solid core of talent that will be around for some time now. Milwaukee should now be focused on acquiring pitching, since that is the pressing issue at hand. However the team and its fans should sit back and at least celebrate for the day, the Braun contract is a steal.

Milwaukee gets away with murder with the signing. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

Breaking news: Tampa Bay Rays’ ace Scott Kazmir gets a three year/28.5MM contract extension. This is bad news for fans of AL East teams, especially since the Rays are now appearing to set themselves up to look like a pretty scary ball club. This Kazmir extension is a bargain; the Shields and Longoria and Pena deals were bargains. The Rays are looking like a fairly dangerous ball club now, even with this offense not fully clicking. Coupling Kazmir with James Shields, who has been downright devastating at times this season, is simply unfair for the AL East opponents (yeah I know, I’m eating my PECOTA crow right now.)

It’s interesting to watch this wild AL East unravel now. The Rays and Red Sox are fighting each other for the top spot in the AL East. Baltimore meanwhile suddenly climbed back into the pennant race by sweeping the “Nation” this afternoon. Toronto couldn’t hit to backup their excellent pitching, and the Yankees… yeah Hank’s pissed. We’re at the quarter point in the MLB season, and baseball couldn’t be more exciting.

One story that I love is with George Sherrill, Baltimore’s closer. When Sherrill came to Baltimore in the Erik Bedard trade, few people would have ever imagined that he’d have saved 75% of the Orioles wins this year. In other words, he has fifteen saves, one shy of the MLB Lead held by K-Rod of the Angels. I didn’t expect this to happen, as did many others, especially some of the ass bags at ESPN.

Granted, Sherrill hasn’t been automatic for the Orioles, that is he puts a few runners on base, however he records the saves. He seals the Orioles wins. Sherrill is a great story nonetheless. He spent a good portion of this career pitching in the independent leagues, got his fastball over 90 mph, and then finally got recognized by the Seattle Mariners. When he was dealt to the Orioles back in February, he was initially shocked, however he probably is happy to be in the position he is now, especially with the Mariners being a last place team.

Two run lead in Baltimore? It’s Sherrill Time. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Any ways Sherrill needs a entrance song, something very similar to the Enter Sandman of Mariano Rivera, however less annoying than the Rally Monkey of Anaheim. Yeah I’ve heard rumors of the Orioles looking to trade their big closer come July. However if we’re at that point, and Baltimore is only a couple games out, maybe the team should hold onto their big closer. Yeah, this is the wild and exciting AL East. Eric Young said it best on Baseball Tonight last night: there won’t be a Wild Card team in this division.

I’ve tried to avoid mentioning much about Yu Darvish. Darvish is a 21-year old pitching prospect playing in Japan for the Nippon Ham Fighters. There have been rumors and speculations about him coming over to the US at the end of the 2008 season, and today’s posting from ESPN The Magazine only accentuates it.

Jim Caple starts off the article by guessing on the question that’s on everyone’s mind: the posting fee required for bring Darvish over to the States. Everyone surely remembers what happened two years ago between New York and Boston. Daisuke Matsuzaka was up for posting, and the thirty teams put in silent posting bids. Everyone expected the Yankees to pull away with the auction with a 30MM or so bid, however they were surprisingly outbid by Boston, stunning everyone with the 51MM posting fee. After ultimately throwing another 52MM for Matsuzaka’s contract, Theo Epstein and the Red Sox acquired the pitcher that the Yankees had their eyes on from the start of the offseason. Of course, the Yankees countered by giving a 20MM posting fee (plus another 20MM contract) to Kei Igawa, however we’re now starting to see that Boston made the best move here.

If Igawa ever does achieve success, it most likely won’t be as a New York Yankee (Boston.com)

In regards to whether some team puts up the 75MM for Darvish’s posting fee, that’s hinged on one thing: the offseason activity of the Yankees. And that alone depends on whether or not (GM) Brian Cashman will return to the organization after the end of the 2008 season. It was a depressed market for some players this past winter. Granted it could be because either the talent level of the players was down, or because of few teams outside of Seattle were overspending. However salaries are usually driven by how active the Yankees are in the offseason. If the Yankees, furious that they lost out on the Johan Santana sweepstakes, start spending to acquire more pitching, then the exorbitant posting fee could possibly be met for Darvish.

As to what team would be the best fit for Darvish, it’s tough to answer that one. Well outside of the Yankees and Mets, there are few teams who’d be able to front the upfront costs. The Mets would be an interesting option, however they already have the highest-paid pitcher in the Majors fronting their rotation. The Dodgers would be another option, however they’re known for going after pitchers like Hiroki Kuroda, pitchers unlike Darvish who have a track record.

So as to whether Darvish actually comes to the States is a whole different story. In all fairness, a team like the Royals could win the posting bid on Darvish. Or even worse, Darvish could decide to simply stay put in Japan. Still, when his father is hinting that he’d prefer for his son to pitch for the Red Sox (e.g. some team in “New England"), Darvish is most likely ready to be exposed to the American media.

If there’s any difference between players like Darvish, and Igawa, and Matsuzaka and Ichiro and others, it’s that Darvish is prepared to handle the exposure that America is ready to offer. Darvish is the equivalent of David Beckham in regards to media following. Pitching in New York shouldn’t be a problem for Darvish, unlike his import fellowman Igawa. The one main concern about Darvish however is that there’s very little information outside of this on him.

What we know about Darvish is that he’s 21 years old and has a live arm. If a team collectively throws upwards of 24MM a year at him (posting fees included), there are two things that should be expected here. One Darvish should be pitching as a number one starter for the team in the playoffs. Secondly, Darvish should be able to deliver the 240 innings or so needed, something that Johan Santana has been doing since 2004.

Am I suggesting that Darvish will struggle in 2009 (assuming that he’s signed)? Not exactly. Still, we know what happened with Matsuzaka last season. He pitched well up to the All-Star break, than ran out of gas in the second half. Matsuzaka labored through his five innings in the World Series, however the Red Sox won everything due to their subsidiary pitching depth. Darvish is a good five years younger than Matsuzaka, and will most likely struggle if given the high work-load that Matsuzaka had in 2007.

Would I be thrilled if “my team” talked with Darvish? Sure. However if the total value of the signing will cost upwards of 25MM per season for a player who has yet to pitch a single inning in the Majors, I’d still in the end rather have Johan Santana.

We haven’t did the Power Rankings since Opening Day… any ways here’s what we think of each team up to this point:

1. Boston Red Sox — (24-15) (March Ranking: 2): As expected, this team is running on all cylinders, and are the top team out of the gate. Not to add more fuel to the “Nation", but there’s a nice piece up on ESPN about how they’ve added speed to their offensive attack. Jacoby Ellsbury does have the 14 steals, and the .385 OBP, but needs to get his average up to be a serious ROY contender.
2. Chicago Cubs — (22-15) (7): Kosuke Fukodome hit his second homer yesterday, his first since Opening Day. So far, even with injuries, this is looking like the team to beat in the National League.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks — (23-15) (5): Brandon Webb and Dan Haren have been the expected 1-2 punch. This team’s rotation boasts an NL Best 23 quality starts. Phenom Max Scherzer rebounded nicely against the Cubs on Saturday.
4. Oakland Athletics — (23-16) (28): Very few people could have predicted their first place start, however Billy Beane’s offseason heroics have done it again. If you think their new-look rotation is sharp with Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, wait until Gio Gonzalez gets his chance.
5. Florida Marlins — (23-14) (30): Another surprising team here, especially given the fact that they signed all-world shortstop Hanley Ramirez to a lucrative extension. Their powerful offense is currently bashing Nationals’ pitching. Dan Uggla has gone deep 11 times, seven in May alone.
6. St. Louis Cardinals — (23-16) (21): One more early-season surprise. Dave Duncan does work miracles, as his staff boasts a NL third-best 3.75 ERA. Even with Ryan Franklin now closing, the team isn’t missing a beat.
7. Tampa Bay Rays — (21-16) (16): The team had its home shutout streak stopped last night, but Scott Kazmir is back. This team might win the 89 games that Baseball Prospectus predicts after all. They’re apparently not your father’s Rays team anymore.
8. Philadelphia Phillies — (21-17) (10): Ryan Howard is mashing the home runs, however that’s about it. The pitching staff has some glaring holes, however Chase Utley and Pat Burrell are leading the expected offensive force.
9. Los Angeles Angels — (22-17) (11): Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders have filled in admirably in John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar’s absences. However of late the offense has been punch-less. Howie Kendrick is shaping up to be a talented, yet fragile second baseman.
10. Houston Astros — (20-17) (22): Miguel Tejada has been a force, and the team has been hot of late, especially outfielder Lance Berkman. Hunter Pence (.262), who just broke up Hiroki Kuroda’s no-hitter, should start heating up soon.
11. New York Mets — (19-16) (8): One of the most enigmatic teams so far this season. They recently split a double-header with the Reds. They backed Johan Santana in game one, however Bronson Arroyo apparently figured himself out in the nightcap.
12. Los Angeles Dodgers — (19-17) (3): Playing well of late, though Andruw Jones has been an unexpected disaster. Still it’s nice to see Chad Billingsley starting to pitch well.
13. Chicago White Sox — (18-17) (20): Gavin Floyd, though losing two no-hitters in the late innings, has looked nice and is rewarding the White Sox for finally living up to his potential as a high school draftee. Still this team is fading faster than a pair of Old Navy jeans. Expect more Ozzie Guillen flareups in the forecast, as his job security lessens more and more…
14. Minnesota Twins — (18-17) (19): This team is playing solid and fundamental baseball. Kevin Slowley is back, and Carlos Gomez is finally starting to show some plate control. Hitting for the cycle shows that he’s the real deal, even at 22 years old. The Pat Neshek injury is a major blow though. At least he’ll have more time to blog…
15. Atlanta Braves — (18-17) (18): Chipper Jones is on a pace to hit .400. Not that it’s likely, but Jo Jo Reyes and Jair Jurrjens look outstanding. It’s a shame they ran into a hot Pirates team this weekend…
16. Cleveland Indians — (18-18) (6): The slow offense erupted for 12 runs against Dustin McGowan and the Blue Jays on Saturday. Cliff Lee (6-0, 0.89) is on pace to be the AL starter in the All-Star Game in July.
17. Baltimore Orioles — (19-19) (29): On the whole the pitching has been solid, especially closer George Sherill with his 13 saves. Sherill hasn’t been exactly automatic of late, but he could be flipped in July for prospects if the team falls out of contention. The poor offensive showing today against Brian Bannister shows that the fall off is coming.
18. New York Yankees — (19-19) (4): Derek Jeter finally awoke from his season-long hitting slump, and his timing couldn’t have been more opportune with Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada on the shelf. Their pitching is a mess though. Darrell Rassner is looking sharp (dominant in Triple-A), and Ian Kennedy is doing the same thing down in the minors. Still, Kei Igawa is starting to look like a waste of money.
19. Pittsburgh Pirates — (17-19) (27): White-hot ball club here. Xavier Nady (.336) is tradable if the team falls out of contention, but they are finally staring to move in the right direction. An extension for Nate McLouth (9 HR, 1.019 OPS) should be coming soon.
20. Milwaukee Brewers — (18-19) (12): Losing Chris Capuano and Yovani Gallardo for the season is tough, and Ben Sheets is most likely gone come the July trading deadline. This struggling team is surely missing Claudio Vargas right now, and in the process could use a closer as well.
21. Texas Rangers — (18-21) (23): A surging team pitching very well all of a sudden. Granted this recent outburst was against the hapless Mariners, and they just placed Kevin Millwood on the 15-day DL. Hopefully this solid play will allow Ron Washington to keep his job. He’s one of the game’s better managers.
22. Toronto Blue Jays — (17-21) (14): Even with the Indians’ recent offensive outburst on Saturday night, the Blue Jays are still pitching to a solid 3.69 ERA. Still the team needs more hitting to back the solid pitching. Losing Vernon Wells for a few months, as well as Frank Thomas, doesn’t help.
23. Detroit Tigers — (16-22) (1): At one point, I thought they turned the corner, however the pitching (only nine quality starts) has been atrocious. Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman need to resolve their control issues to be effective. The team still hasn’t won a game when their offense failed to score at least four runs. That needs to improve.
24. Kansas City Royals — (16-22) (25): They broke out of the gate strong, yet have started to fade. Zack Greike, Brian Bannister and Joakim Soria have done their jobs, but the rest of the team has not. After losing three of four to Baltimore, their home record runs to an MLB-worst 7-12.
25. Colorado Rockies — (15-22) (15): Aaron Cook is living up to the three year extension he signed in the winter, but the rest of the staff is struggling. The defending NL Champions need to pitch better in order to win. The offense won’t be a problem.
26. Cincinatti Reds — (15-23) (17): Edison Volquez has been phenomenal, and Jeff Keppinger’s five hit game on Saturday broke his mini-slump. Still the team has been playing poor baseball of late. David Ross hitting out of order today accentuates this point.
27. San Francisco Giants — (15-22) (26): Tim Lincecum (5-1, 1.61) has been everything they’ve expected, Matt Cain has been respectable, and Barry Zito is finally starting to turn the corner. Still, this team can’t win until they start fielding a Major League lineup.
28. Seattle Mariners — (14-24) (9): Erik Bedard has done his job, but the rest of the team has been a disappointment. John McLaren should be on the hot-seat now, at least until things turn around.
29. Washington Nationals — (15-23) (24): Jim Bowden has hinted about a youth-movement now in Washington. The talent is there, especially with John Lannan in the rotation. Still, they will need to scrap the old parts first…
30. San Diego Padres — (13-24) (13): Greg Maddux wins his 350th, however it took him a few times. Jake Peavy recently voiced his concerns about the team’s poor play. They’re in a funk now, however they have the talent to turn the problem around.

Scott Boras could potentially lose more sleep now, especially knowing that the Florida Marlins locked up one of their prime stars in Hanley Ramirez to a six year/70MM contract. I know that the Marlins seldom hand out long term contracts (their last one was gave out a few years ago to Carlos Delgado.) However the Marlins would be foolish to pass up a contract this beneficial to them.

Jeremy Hermida congrates Hanley on his new contract. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

As many have speculated, Hanley could have easily netted a 200MM contract in 2012, the time he would have become a free agent. The player that he’s most comparable to, Alfonso Soriano, got 136MM from the Cubs two years ago. Granted he’s not the glove wizard that some of his shortstop counterparts are (like Soriano, he’ll most likely be in the outfield in a couple years), however Ramirez can easily hit, one of the game’s most solid #3 hitters today.

If I knew more about the details of the contract, I could better pose this argument. However for the sake of argument, assume that the three arbitration years of the contract are worth 30MM, leaving 40MM for the other three free agency years. Given the fact that Ryan Howard got 10MM for his first year of arbitration, Ramirez if he played his cards correctly could have netted himself upwards of 45MM.

The Marlins are possibly one of the most-stingiest teams in all of baseball, however this was a deal that even they couldn’t resist. Once the deal expires, Ramirez will be just hitting 30 years old, meaning that he’ll be in line for another huge contract. The one thing that works in their favor, baring the no-trade clauses, is that the Marlins could easily trade Ramirez in five years if they so wanted to. His value should be sky high, and his salary isn’t that much of an impediment, especially in comparison to similar players.

In going with recent trends, a player’s performance during his arbitration years is essentially on par with his free agency years (the player might peak during his free agency years, however he is still in his prime.) The salary jump a player gets from his arbitration years however can be anything from 30% to 50%. The Marlins did the same thing that the Tigers did with the Miguel Cabrera extension, which is pay the price for the player’s arbitration years. They’re getting more “bang for their buck” by doing this.

Now, this deal is clearly a step in the right direction for the Marlins. The team is 21-14 and on top of the NL East. In all fairness, I would have never predicted this. In fact, I was wrong about all of the following teams:

• St. Louis (22-15)
• Oakland (22-15)
• Baltimore (18-18)

All four of the teams are playing better than expected baseball. The Cardinals have stellar starting pitching, and the same goes with Oakland (recently #1 on ESPN’s power rankings.) Baltimore is playing tough ball as well, and the Marlins are also competitive. Now do I expect this to keep up for all of these teams, it’s tough to tell. All four teams have great starting pitching. Oakland is getting great return on the Dan Haren trade, with Greg Smith and Dana Eveland leading the way. St. Louis is getting quality starts from Adam Wainwright and Todd Wellemeyer. Toss out Steve Trachsel, and Baltimore has four starters who have ERAs under 4.30. And the Marlins are also getting great pitching. Still going back to the original question, come back to me in July. If all four of these teams are still playing good ball, I’ll eat more crow.

Prison time did Scott Olsen some good apparently.

Frank Thomas has landed a gig as an Oakland Athletic, another young starter made his Major League Debut, and Bill Bavasi made a move that put the Mariners back another ten years. Granted I went into a deep discussion over the Krivsky firing, however there were plenty of interesting stories that occurred throughout the week. Time to recap this odd week in baseball:

Frank the Tank Time in Oakland

Late this week, Billy Beane did the inevitable, which is reacquire Frank Thomas for the A’s’ playoff push. The team is playing great baseball (I’ll touch on this later), however the offense is going through a power outage right now. At the time of the signing, the team only hit ten homers (that was one more than Chase Utley has all by himself at the time.) Thomas will help. And at a prorated portion portion of the league minimum salary (400K), this signing is a steal. It’s no wonder why the move only took a couple of days to do.

In regards to which DH will better suit the A’s, it’s tough to question between Thomas and the All Time Home Run King (that is Barry Bonds.) Bonds is decorated and has the numbers, however so does Thomas. Plus he doesn’t carry the baggage that Bonds has. Thomas can still hit; he’s a career .300 hitter in the 500 home run club. Some of the other hitters on the Oakland staff don’t have as nice of a resume as Thomas has. The team dumped Dan Johnson, has to tolerate the monster strikeout totals from Jack Cust and Travis Buck, and currently has Mike Sweeney handling the DH duties. This move is exactly what Oakland needed. For fans keeping score at home, put a star by Beane’s name.

Young Starters Have Their Day

I usually highlight when a young pitcher makes his debut here, and there are two young arms worth talking about currently. Oakland has Greg Smith, whose currently on a roll right now. During Spring Training, he was matching fellow pitching sensation Gio Gonzalez pitch per pitch. In four starts so far, he’s 2-0 with a 2.88 ERA. He’ll most likely be the victim to be sent back to Triple-A once Rich Harden returns.

Justin Masterson was dominating Double-A for Boston, pitching to a tune of a 0.94 ERA. He was sent back to Portland yesterday, however he made a stunning debut in place of Josh Beckett:

Unheralded Aces

There have been a series of pitchers who have been delivering quality starts all season long for their teams, but have had little run support to show for their efforts. Felix Hernandez should be 5-0, however he only has two wins due to bullpen implosions and poor support. He has a stellar 1.67 ERA. Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie was matched up against King Felix twice, and both games were pitching duels between the two starters. He’s currently winless, though has also been pitching well all season (he went into the eighth in his last start.)

One last starter who seems to be on the short end is Matt Cain of the Giants. He’s also winless on the season, though was unfortunate to be involved in a traditional 1-0 game with the Giants in his last start out. Whatever run support that the Giants muster tends to usually go to Barry Zito, and that isn’t working too well.

Zannen Desu Ne

The Mariners could be in an interesting situation now. They are sitting on a heap of young talent, which they don’t exactly want any part of with the team’s current makeup. A good reason behind this is the team’s General Manager Bill Bavasi, who in recent years dealt talent like Rafeal Soriano and Adam Jones. He also signed his share of bad free agents. Granted I am eating a healthy plate of crow now since Carlos Silva is pitching well, however there have been many bad contracts that have damaged the team and have left fans scratching their heads.

You can add this latest one to the contract heap. Yesterday afternoon, the team extended catcher Kenji Johjima by another three years. Granted Johjima isn’t hitting now, but he does have some power. Then again so does Jeff Clement (the team’s #1 prospect according to Baseball America.) If the deal was worth the total value of his first contract (15MM), it still would have been a bad move. However with this new deal, Johjima is getting 24MM over the timespan. Ouch (on an aside, the headline translates to how unfortunate.)

The Boys of Summer Are Back

Last night was the opening night in the Atlantic League, if anyone is interested. Some of the best non-affiliated professional baseball can be seen in these games.

Hot and Cold Starts

We’re one month into the season, and there have been some teams that have surprised and got off to good starts. There have also been some disappointments. Baltimore, Oakland and Florida are all playing well and are high in their divisional standings. Baltimore has got its share of timely hitting, Oakland has received sensational pitching, and the Marlins hitters know how to mash. Will these three teams be as good as they are come May, it’s hard to tell.

It’s hard to call the Texas Rangers a disappointment, however at 8-16, they’re not doing anything right. Granted they have a deep farm system (fourth best in baseball), but they have no pitching. It’s a shame that Ron Washington will most likely take the blame for this disaster, he’s one of the nicest managers in all of baseball.

I should have written about this yesterday morning when the news of this struck, however I didn’t get around to doing this until today. Like virtually everyone, this news came as a shock to me. Reds owner Bob Castellini essentially pulled the trigger on this one twenty one games into the season. Yes the Reds were 9-12, and playing at the .429 clip they’d be on pace to win 69 games during the season. However twenty one games into the season is an unfair barometer (look at the Tigers, who are suddenly turning things around thanks to the fountain of youth known as “Rangers pitching”.)

Jayson Stark has an outstanding piece up on ESPN now basically questioning the whole thing. Granted the season is young, however Castellini made a few enemies the other day with this move. There are far worse GMs out there, and I didn’t expect Krivsky to be the first to go. As Stark highlighted in his piece, some of Krivisky’s accomplishments:

• Bronson Arroyo for Willy Mo Pena
• Brandon Phillips for Jeff Stevens
• Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger
• Josh Hamilton for 50K (only to later be spun for the talented Edison Volquez)

The funny thing about the Reds is that the team isn’t quite built to win now. Granted they have a wonderful mix of talent and veterans. They’re very similar to the composition to the Dodgers, however the Dodgers are much further along in the game. Some comparisons to look at:

• James Looney over Joey Votto (edge LA)
• Matt Kemp and Andre Either over Jay Bruce (yet to make his MLB debut) (edge LA)
• Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton and Clayton Kershaw (albeit yet to make his debut) over Volquez, Homer Bailey and Jonny Cueto (edge LA for the time being)
• Andy LaRoche over Edwin Encarnacion (edge CIN, though LaRoche should have been further along)

The Dodgers are a legitimate playoff contender since they have a veteran rotation and much deeper bullpen. The Reds’ rotation is anchored by the ever solid Aaron Harrang, Arroyo (rocked yesterday), two young arms in Cueto and Volquez, and the disappointing Josh Fogg. Given the state the Reds are in, with most of the team still learning on the job, 9-12 is a solid start. I’m not exactly sure what precipitated Castellini to make this decision. Yes there are a few upstart teams less talented who are winning (see Baltimore and Oakland.) Maybe the Felipe Lopez/Austin Kearns trade still stuck in his head. Castellini should have waited until midseason to make this move, however it’s not like Cincinnati hasn’t had its share of vociferous and obtrusive owners:

The late Marge Schott, walking the one time team president.

If Krivsky did anything right in the offseason, it was holding onto their incredible young talent. He didn’t acquiesce to ridiculous demands Andy MacPhail made for Erik Bedard (involving Bruce and others) or Billy Beane made for Joe Blanton (Cueto.) He retained these incredible youngsters. Aside from the fact, Walt Jocketty could potentially inherit one hell of a team in the near future.

However looking at now, the Reds were expected to win. When 12MM a year was shelled out for four years of Francisco Cordero (an albeit expensive yet needed arm to fix the bullpen), that meant that they were ready to compete with the Cubs and Brewers. I unfortunately don’t see it that way. Both teams are better all around and have deeper talent. The Reds were expected to play season “sleeper” instead. Still in looking at the team as they are now (starting Jerry Hariston Jr. over Bruce as an example), it was unfair to Krivsky to drop the blame all on him.

Tampa Bay’s talented third baseman Evan Longoria got a monster deal on Friday. To recap some of the great recent stories:

The Longoria Lockdown

When news came out on Friday about Tampa Bay having a big press release coming, many people expected them to sign free agent Barry Bonds. However that wasn’t quite the case. The Rays awarded their young third baseman Evan Longoria with a 6 year/17.5MM contract extension, where the total compensation could be worth 44MM over nine seasons. In other words, even though Longoria only played six games when the contract was signed, this deal could turn out to be a steal for the Rays, especially if his defense and offense are as good as many have been touting for some time now.

Longoria, the third overall pick in the 2006 Amateur Draft, was hitting .300 at the time of the extension. When this extension is over, he’ll be 31 years old, and in his prime. If all stays well for the hitter, he should have a monster contract coming his way as a free agent then. Longoria clearly traded away some dollars here for security. And when Tampa Bay put him in the minors at the start of the season, they said they weren’t doing this to delay his service time. Apparently they weren’t lying here.

Regardless this is a great move by the Rays, another victory in the leverage of the small market teams against the large market franchises. Hopefully Cincinnati now will follow the same thing by extending outfielder Jay Bruce once he makes his debut (the same thing goes with first baseman Joey Votto and their wealth of young pitchers.) San Diego should do the same with Chase Headley when he arrives this summer.

The “No Homers” Club

Speaking of Cincinnati, everyone is well aware of what Jonny Cueto and Edison Volquez are doing in the Reds rotation currently. However are people forgetting about Homer Bailey?

Cueto is a great talent, however Bailey has #1 potential. People remember him last season, walking one hitter for every hitter he struck out in his rookie season. However when he came back in September, he appeared to have everything together. Cincinnati put him in Triple-A at the start of the season, and he’s been dominating. In all fairness, Homer’s ready. It’s time to pull the plug on the Josh Fogg experiment.

By the way, has anyone noticed how well Votto is hitting right now?

Also from the 2006 Amateur Draft…

Speaking of Longoria, the pitcher selected two spots above him at #1 by the Royals made his Major League Debut this afternoon. Luke Hovechar had a five run fourth, and then a rough fifth inning this afternoon against the A’s, which pushed him out early. He’s filling in for John Bale, who’s on the disabled list now with dead arm. With Brett Tomko pitching as well as he is right now, it’ll be interesting to see who gets the last spot in the Royals’ rotation.

Enough of Kyle Farnsworth

Yankee reliever Kyle Farnsworth throws behind Boston hitter Manny Ramirez last week, and now has a suspension coming his way. Farnsworth is appealing this one, and had the following to say:

It wasn’t my intention to hit him. I don’t understand it. I didn’t hit him. No one was ejected. So I don’t know why he ruled the way he did.

He backed this by saying that the ball “slipped” out of his hand on that pitch. Right. Farnsworth has a history of incidents like this, being suspended for three games in 2003 and five games in 2005. In all fairness, Major League Baseball needs to implement a three strikes rule, and rid the league of players like this. It’s about time that baseball gave up on Farnsworth, the same way that the Cubs did a few years back.

Tejada’s Overnight Aging Problem

As many people saw this week, news was revealed that Miguel Tejada will be turning 34 next month, instead of 32. The Astros and the Orioles apparently don’t care, since he’s hitting regardless. Tejada could become a free agent at the end of the season, however this news is the latest shock making the December trade between the two teams look more and more strange.

Many fans in Baltimore think that Tejada was just like Albert Belle, probably the most surliest player to play the game in the past twenty years. That’s not the case however. Tejada, though unhappy playing on a losing team in Baltimore, at least hustled and played hard. The time he was in Baltimore was much better than the time that Belle was. It’s a shame that both marriages ended up on sour notes.

Toronto released their veteran slugger Frank Thomas today, a day or so after being told that his playing time would decrease in 2008. Obviously there was money involved here, that is all Frank needed was 304 plate appearances to have a 10MM option vested for him in 2009. However the Big Hurt wasn’t hitting so far, a .167 average being the main culprit here.

What we’re seeing Toronto do is what the rest of the league is finally starting to do, which is save money by offering positions to their younger players. Baltimore did it earlier this year, by swallowing the 11MM that outfielder Jay Gibbons was owed so that Scott Moore could receive more playing time. Other teams aren’t calling for players like Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Mike Piazza, knowing that they can fill those at bats with cheaper, younger talent.

The moves made by Baltimore and Toronto are basically going to be the tip of the iceberg for things to come, that is more teams should be following soon. If the over-paid, aging veteran isn’t producing, there’s more harm in leaving him on their roster than to let someone younger and more deserving play. Of course if the team could trade that veteran, they most likely would. However since very few teams are going to be interested in taking on the salary, the only other reasonable option is to release the player.

Don’t get me wrong, some team is going to bring in Thomas pretty soon, knowing that Toronto will be fitting the bill on his 8MM salary this year. However Frank shouldn’t be expecting another big contract anytime soon. Toronto shouldn’t be in that bad of shape either; Adam Lind had a nice power stroke last season and should be solid as the team’s designated hitter. And by releasing Thomas, the “Big Hurt” on their payroll is now gone, freeing more money to lock up young pitchers like Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum. And as for Thomas, he’s a great hitter with a prolific career. When some team takes him on, he should bring his 30 home run bat back into the game. However Thomas is now finding out what Bonds (1.025 OPS in 2007) and Sosa (92 RBI in 2007) did last Winter; designated hitters are an easily replaceable commodity. There’s no sense in paying a hitter 8MM per season to only hit and not field. As Ken Rosenthal hinted on Friday, Ryan Howard could soon be facing this same situation soon.

Thomas is finding out what Bonds and Sosa did last Winter. (Getty Images)

Jon Heyman has a piece up on CNN, listing thirteen of the worst free agent contracts (don’t know whether they’re all time or not.) Of course the usual suspects are listed, that is the injured and the malcontented in Carl Pavano, Darren Dreifort and Albert Belle. Mike Hampton tops this list, however at lucky #13 is Juan Pierre. Back in the end of the 2006 season, Ned Colletti offered Pierre a 5 year/44MM contract after a season with the Cubs. Pierre took the money, and that brought about mass disgust in the baseball world.

Heyman put it perfectly in this piece about Pierre:

He’s riding the bench only one year into his term. Great guy. But the lesson here is, never pay big bucks for a singles hitter with a nice personality.

Granted that all is true, especially since Colletti gave the big bucks to Pierre, however it’s unfair to say that Pierre hasn’t performed up to his contract. Pierre has the reputation of being the speedy contact hitter. He gets his hits and runs, however since he doesn’t draw too many walks his OBP is low, especially for a lead off hitter. Still in his first season with the Dodgers, Pierre did everything that Colletti and the Dodgers paid for:

Enter 2008 and Joe Torre. The team has two talented outfielders in Andre Either and Matt Kemp, and the club tried unsuccessfully to move Pierre and the remaining 36MM on his contract. Oakland came close, but no deal was done. Now to the ire of fantasy owners across the country, Pierre is seeping into the plate appearances that Either and Kemp could be getting now, being on pace to reach the plate 350 times this season. Agreed, that’s far too many plate appearances for a fourth outfielder, but that’s the situation that the Dodgers have themselves in. Ned Colletti had a panic attack, overspent, and brought in more speed to complement Rafeal Furcal. However given the depth in the organization, this move was highly unnecessary. Still, you have to give credit to Pierre though. He did exactly what the Dodgers requested when the brought him in, and now they’ve realized that they made a large mistake.

The Mariners, in light of staff ace Erik Bedard’s desire to pitch, have just placed Bedard on the 15-day disabled list. His hip was still hurting him, though he insisted that he could pitch through the pain. The Mariners, already deep with pitching, weren’t going to take any chances. Bedard was 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA so far in 2008, having missed two starts already. The knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey will take his rotation slot for the time being (personally I’d love to see Brandon Morrow in their rotation, once he’s fully recovered from his injury.)

Seattle coughed up five players for Bedard in February. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

In case anyone hasn’t noticed, the AL Central, one of the toughest divisions in baseball, is completely out of order. Detroit was expected to be the best team in the division, yet they’ve been poor. Kansas City and Chicago however have been playing well. This post will simply break down each of the teams in this division, and suggest what’s going wrong, and how each team can improve (stats as of 4/15.)

Chicago White Sox— 8-5

What’s been right: Just about everything. The starting pitching has been superb, especially Gavin Floyd (coming off a near no-no) and John Danks (who just threw seven shutout against the Rangers.) The hitting is on a roll too. Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede are hitting with new life. Crede, if he continues, could see a Mike Lowell-sized contract coming his way come November.
What’s been wrong: Not much. The team doesn’t have many holes in the bullpen, nor do they do in the rotation (outside of Jose Contreras.) The hitting , though scoring runs aplenty, has been inconsistent at times.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: Is this hot start a fluke or for real? It’ll take a few more games to determine whether this White Sox team will win 70 or 90 games this season. Adjusted projection: 74 wins.

Kansas City Royals— 8-5

What’s been right: The pitching, both bullpen and rotation, has been phenomenal. Joakim Soria, Leo Nunez and Ron Mahay have been lights out, Zack Grenike has been dominant, as has Brian Bannister, who at times has looked like Greg Maddux.
What’s been wrong: The hitting, though promising, has been inconsistent. They can’t solve good pitching yet. There are other rotation questions as well. Brett Tomko has looked good, but many aren’t sure that he’s the long term answer. John Bale also deserves to be in the rotation, and has nice upside, but has had a few rough starts in 2008. Luke Hovechar, the overall pick in the 2006 draft, is ready to be on the pitching staff.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: The team, if its pitching remains of highest quality, could be a contender. Any team that’s pitching as well as they are should make the playoffs. However that’s a large “if” right now. Greinke has finally lived up to his promise, and the bullpen is rock solid, but the rest of the rotation needs to stay consistent, especially if they hope to fend off resurgences from Cleveland and Detroit. Adjusted projection: 74 wins.

Minnesota Twins— 6-7

What’s been right: There have been some surprises in the rotation, particularly Livan Hernandez, Nick Blackburn and Boof Bonser. Jason Kubel has also been an offensive force, and Joe Nathan has been lights out.
What’s been wrong: Far too much inconsistency with this team. Michael Cuddyer’s injury hurt, and Justin Morneau hasn’t been producing. The bullpen, outside of Nathan, has been getting hit hard of late.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: The Twins will ultimately start clicking on all cylinders soon, but so will the other powers in their division, notably Detroit and Cleveland. They don’t have enough firepower to compete with these teams yet. Adjusted projection: 76 wins.

Cleveland Indians— 5-8

What’s been right: There have been some bright spots in rotation, Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook in particular. Victor Martinez and Grady Siezmore are also producing, but that’s about the most that their offense is doing right now.
What’s been wrong: The team is inconsistent on offense, C.C. Sabathia isn’t of form, and their once-reliable bullpen is showing flashes of the 2006 ‘pen’s shaky self. They now have a hole at closer, with Joe Borowski going on the DL after his latest blown save. Rafeal Betancourt should hopefully step in here.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: All the pieces from last season’s championship team are here, and they should figure themselves out by the end of May. Adjusted projection: 91 wins.

Detroit Tigers— 3-10

What’s been right: Their “1,000 run” offense is finally starting to awaken. The Twins just saw it last night, as they watched a nice lead in the eighth evaporate to their potentially dormant offense. Bats like Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez need to awaken. Carlos Guillen has been the only consistent bat.
What’s been wrong: The pitching in whole has been a mess, especially their bullpen. The once-ageless Todd Jones is starting to show some age, and the team wouldn’t mind if Baltimore offered their Rule V pitcher back to them for bullpen help. Detroit needs to make a move, either via trade or move one of its starters to the pen to put out the fire. Rick Porcello shouldn’t be an option this early in his career.
Reality and Adjusted Projection: Many people picked the Tigers to represent the American League in the World Series, even with knowing that the bullpen is as bad as its been. The team is talented enough to shake this funk off, however championship teams can’t continuously win 12-10 ball games. Adjusted projection: 87 wins.

It was only a matter of time before Baltimore’s recent hot streak was caught hold by the media. Yes, the team is still in first place in the AL East. Admittedly they’ve been playing solid, fundamentally-sound baseball. And as a result of it, they’re winning ball games. And since they’re now under the eye of the media, the predicted bad press therefore follows.

On the front page of Fox all weekend was an article by Dayn Perry, basically highlighting the obvious: a winning season would essentially serve as a mirage, that is it would distract fans from the real purpose of the season, which is to continue the full-rebuilding of the franchise. The team has plenty of tradable commodities, and the last thing that the fans should want to see is Andy MacPhail acquire a veteran for a potential playoff run. Then again it’s only April, the team could potentially tank come May.

It’s extremely difficult to write with a sarcastic tone, but when I think that Baltimore will win the World Series in 2008, I’m seriously joking. Granted it’s refreshing to see the team win and play hard, but in the end I’m still expecting a losing season. This performance might have raised my expectations of them to being a 70 win team. On the same sarcastic note:

Showdown in the AL East

Baltimore broke out of the first place deadlock today against Toronto with a 4-3 win. It’s strange to call these two teams the “superpowers” in the AL East, but we’re in April so here’s that. Adam Jones had three hits, and George Sherill got (I believe) the MLB leading sixth save. Sherill has saved three out of every four Orioles wins. Both of these players came over in the Erik Bedard trade with Seattle. Speaking of trades, the “spare parts” acquired in the Miguel Tejada trade are also producing. Luke Scott had another two hits, and it hitting at a nice .350 clip. Matt Albers got the win today, with five solid innings. If you take Albers’ two wins, with the (team leading) two wins from Dennis Sarfate, half of the team’s wins came over from the Houston trade. Sarfate has also been outstanding, albeit his ERA being high due to a rough evening in Tampa Bay on Friday.

First Round Talent for the Rays

On Sunday, Tampa Bay threw out Jeff Neimann against Baltimore, making his Major League Debut. Neimann had trouble in the first, however settled down and pitched six startling innings for the win. Baltimore has trouble hitting pitchers they’ve never seen before (case in point with Jesse Litsch’s sparkling debut last summmer.) Neimann goes up against the White Sox next, and we’ll see how the fourth overall pick in the 2004 Amateur Draft fares. He was solid in Durham’s rotation, and he could possibly be a fixture.

Trivia: Litsch was a former MLB batboy. (AP Photo/Tim Sharp)

Tampa Bay has suddenly a good problem, which is too much pitching. Of course there Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza, who are both injured. James Shields has been reliable as usual, and Edwin Jackson has been superb. Then there’s also Jason Hammel (also solid), and J.P. Howell, someone they essentially stole from the Royals (for Joey Gaithright.) And of course there’s the Jake McGee, Wade Davis and David Price tandem that everyone’s talking about. Wow, with this much pitching, they’re in a position to make a trade (I see Jackson being expendable, with his value being as high as it is.) Andy Sonnanstine could also be relegated to the bullpen, especially after being torched in his start this evening.

Nonetheless, Neimann is only the start of all the first rounders that are starting to make an impact for the Rays. All those losing seasons got them those draft picks to begin with, however that is probably going to be changing soon. Price (#1 overall last year) is coming soon, and Delmon Young (thrown-bats aside, the #1 overall in 2003) got them Garza. And then there’s Evan Longoria (#3 in 2006), who got two extra base hits today against the Yankees, one being his first home run. Apparently my pre-season claim of him being the AL Rookie of the Year is starting to look true.

Cleveland’s GM Mark Shapiro has a knack for signing his budding talent. I wrote something on this the other day, about how there’s a main trade off between security and money for players who sign away their arbitration years. In the end, players who go year to year tend to make out much better, however there’s a risk at hand of injuries and such, especially for young pitchers. Just recently we saw two pitchers ink long term deals, in the Pirates’ Ian Snell and the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright. Today Shapiro did the same thing with budding ace Fausto Carmona.

Carmona had a breakout year last year for the Indians, winning 19 games (along with C.C. Sabathia) and leading the Indians to within one win to the World Series. Carmona essentially got the same deal that Wainwright got with the Cardinals, which is four years at 15MM (this contract gives him a new salary of 500K for this year) with additional option years which the team can vest. If Cleveland vests all three of the option years, the total value of the contract could be around 48MM. If Carmona continues to pitch as well as he has been of late, his 2014 option for 14MM will look like a major bargain, especially in comparison to larger contracts received by free agent pitchers.

When Carmona came up in 2006, I often wondered if he would make it. Like many of the prospects that came up for the Indians, most of them had nothing left to prove in the minors, however they struggled once they were in the majors. Cleveland had the same problem with Brandon Phillips, who after leaving Cleveland blossomed in Cincinnati. The same thing happened with Jeremy Guthrie and the Orioles. Cleveland didn’t want to see the same thing happen with Carmona. He was purely dominant at all stages in the minors, particularly in Triple-A Buffalo, however he couldn’t solve Major League hitting, pitching to a 1-10, 5.42 clip in 2006. He had a stint in the minors in early 2007, however once he came back he was there to stay. He’s off to a great start now in 2008.

This move is great for Carmona, in that he gets 15MM guaranteed right off the bat. If he performs well, he’ll also be compensated nicely. And likewise, this move is great for Cleveland. Shapiro gets to retain another young star, alongside the likes of Grady Siezmore, Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Jake Westbrook. By signing players at an early stage, Shapiro is able to build a small market team which can compete against the major powers in the Major Leagues. They were one win away from defeating Boston and advancing to the World Series last year. However like all contracts, the young players will have theirs expire and will then be ready for free agency. Shapiro is seeing this issue right in the eye, in the fact that he clearly needs to sign their staff ace Sabathia as soon as he can. The Indians cannot afford to have Sabathia go to the Yankees.

Baltimore “clobbers” the Rangers today 8-1, and moves to a 6-1 season record. People are finally starting to recognize this team. Time to start printing those playoff tickets.

Some other random Orioles news and tidbits:

• Dave Trembley is considering going with a 13-man bullpen. This is an interesting idea. Though in the last three games the starters have thrown 7.0, 6.0 and 6.0 innings, before that they struggled to make it though the fifth. The best way to preserve that stellar bullpen of theirs is to not overwork their staff, something that plagued the team early May last year, when we saw Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, Chris Ray and Danys Baez seemingly every other day. Of course this takes one player off the bench, however most of the players that they have now are versatile enough to play many different positions.
• Trembley is also sitting Adam Jones when good pitchers are throwing. He did so on Sunday when the Mariners trotted out Felix Hernandez. It’s a good approach; that is the best way to assimilate Jones to Major League pitching is to show him average, below-average pitching. He went 1-4 today against the AAA arms that the Rangers threw out (Jason Jennings looked horrible, and had control problems galore.)

The Chris Young Extension

In other news, the Arizona Diamondbacks extended center fielder Chris Young (not the Padres’ pitcher) through 2014 with a five year, 28MM extension. Troy Tulowitzki’s 30MM he received a few months ago is still the bar setter for total contract worth for players with one year of experience, however if Arizona extends Young’s contract through his first two years of free agency, the total value of the contract will be around 38MM. In my eyes that’s a bargain, especially for the club. If they could now do this for Justin Upton they’d be in great shape.

Most people see Young as a perennial 30-30 guy. He looks more like an Andruw Jones to me, low average, high power, great defensive outfielder. When Jones came up, he was a great base stealer. His power is still there, though his speed has clearly diminished. Young had an interesting rookie season last year (the .230 average was tough, but the 32 home runs were nice, especially the nine lead-off ones.) He’s off to a great start again this year (so far four homers), and if he can keep his average above .270, he’ll be a superstar.

I know it’s only the beginning part of the season, but after another come-from-behind win today against the Mariners, a team that many predict to win the AL West (me included), the Orioles are 5-1. Many people had them slated as the worst team in the league. One of my favorite writers for ESPN, D.J. Gallo, had this wonderful Page 2 comment to say about the club in March:

This is the worst team in baseball. They’ll struggle to win 50 games this season. In fact, the Orioles’ players are so bad, the team equipment manager has written on every player’s bats the same words that were on Billy Ripken’s bat in his 1989 Fleer baseball card.

Fun Fact: Oriole Park at Camden Yards is only a short walk from West Baltimore, one of the worst inner-city areas in the country. And I totally know what it’s like to live there, because I’ve seen numerous episodes of “The Wire.”

Assuming Gallo’s correct, the team will need to win no more than 45 of their next 156 games. Some of the worst teams in history haven’t played to a wining percentage like that. Ass. Jamie Walker got frustrated by the comments from the press, as did Kevin Millar. Is that the main reason why Baltimore is off to their best start since 1998? Of course it doesn’t hurt that they’re hitting very well as a team. And a team with bullpen ERA of 0.84 is a far cry from last season. Still this team will only go as far as their starting pitching can carry them. Jeremy Guthrie was solid on Sunday, and Daniel Cabrera rebounded from a shaky first inning this afternoon to throw a five solid thereafter. Regardless, given the amount of veterans like Millar and Walker and Aubrey Huff sprinkled in with the raw talent like Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, I don’t really care as to whether they take first place or finish in the cellar; this team as enthusiastic as they are is definitely fun as hell to watch.

Update: For some odd reason, Baltimore has the best record in the Majors right now. Though the season is very young, doesn’t sound right to say the least.

Easily the most exciting game of the year. Seattle had a 2-0 lead going into the ninth inning this afternoon in Baltimore. Felix Hernandez and Jeremy Guthrie matched each other pitch per pitch, but Hernandez was simply dominant over eight innings. In comes the bullpen for the Mariners to close this one out.

Eric O’Flaherty comes in to try to nail the door down, but allows a pair of hits, one being a leadoff double to Nick Markakis. In comes Mark Lowe to get the final out, however a wild pitch allows Adam Jones to score, and Luis Hernandez (of all people) gets the game winning hit. Baltimore stunningly pulls away with a 3-2 win, and have now won four in a row. Luke Scott had another three hits this afternoon, and his now hitting .538 on the season.

Lowe was apparently appointed the closer while J.J. Putz is out, but can’t exactly hold down leads. This come from behind victory for Baltimore shows why the M’s need their All-Star Closer back badly. Wow.

The M’s need this guy back soon. (SI)

If anyone’s interested in seeing what many sportswriters are saying about the Orioles, the Baltimore Sun put together an interesting compilation of all of the comments. Long story short, everyone predicts them to lose. ESPN has them at the bottom of their power rankings, FOX Sports also has them 30th out of the teams. To take the comment that came out of the ESPN rankings:

O’s fans have given up on their team as evidenced by just over 10,000 of them showing up for the second game of the season at Camden Yards.

So the club is now four games into the season, and they’ve won three of their games. How come I’m not seeing any front page stories on Fox or CNN about the Orioles like I did last week with the upstart Royals? I honestly don’t think the Orioles are the worst team in the league (in my power rankings I have them 29th), but they’re on the whole a bad team. Granted they just took two straight from the Mariners, a team that they only beat twice in all of 2007. So to answer the main question, why aren’t the Orioles 0-4? Looking at a few of the reasons why this isn’t the case.

• Timely Hitting: Baltimore brought in Luke Scott and Adam Jones for a reason, to revitalize their offense. Apparently it’s working, since they’re having timely hitting. Baltimore is hitting .272 collectively right now, which is ninth best in the majors. Their five homers and seven steals are also in the top ten in the majors. If they can continue to get clutch hitting from their veterans like Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora and Ramon Hernandez, they can keep their pitchers in the game and give the team a chance to win.
• Strong Bulpen: The acquisition of George Sherill was one of the most important moves the team made in the offseason. He already is among the leaders with three saves in as many chances. With him in his new role, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford can revert back to their original roles of specialized setup men. Other hard-throwing arms are being used very nicely in Dennis Sarfate and Randor Bierd (the Rule V arm.) Matt Albers has been phenomenal in long relief so far as well. This is where Rick Kranitz is showing his impact.

Am I saying that Baltimore will win the American League East this year? Not exactly. Their starting pitching is a mess. The starters threw games of 5.2, 4.0, 5.2, and 4.0 innings. They need to get deeper into the games, otherwise their strong bullpen will tire, much like it did last year. They also need to add a better option at shortstop, though Luis Hernandez’ glove has been much better than it has during the Spring. None the less, a hot start by the Orioles and they’ll have some chips to trade come mid-season:

• Brian Roberts: All of March, there has been speculation galore as to where he would be moved. The Cubs want him badly, but are reluctant to give up Felix Pie and Sean Gallagher together. Roberts has seven walks, and also two steals. If the Cubs keep faltering, they could possibly give into Andy MacPhail’s demands.
• Sherill: Cubs’ fans keep inking the closer into possible Roberts deals. Granted the veteran reliever is a great arm, and many teams could use a solid closer. If he has a 30 save season this year for the Orioles, his salary could skyrocket in arbitration next Winter. It might be best to shop the reliever and see what he could bring in.
• Mora: He’s off to a hot start himself, and all it takes is a playoff team to have an injury and they’ll be inquiring about the third baseman. He’s 36 however, and still has another year left on his contract. He’s also blocking playing time for Scott Moore. MacPhail should be shopping him heavilly come July.
• Walker and Bradford: They’re two above-average middle relievers, both of whom will be making 3-4MM per season over the next two years. However middle relief is in demand. The Orioles should be sellers come July.
• Daniel Cabrera: He pitched four innings in his first start against the Rays. At 2.8MM, the team should be losing their patience with this arm. Hopefully he can build up some value with some quality starts between now and then.
• Huff, Kevin Millar, Jay Payton: Two high priced players that the club would definitely consider to move, if someone would take the salary on.
• Ramon Hernandez: If he reverts back to ‘06 form, the Orioles could receive a nice package for their catcher. Their top draft pick from last season, Matt Wieters, should be ready by then. He’s off to a great start in Single A by the way.

They play the M’s once again this afternoon, though Erik Bedard will not make his scheduled start. That was something I (and many other people) was really looking forward to seeing.

A few months back I wrote a piece on how I thought the Royals were making all of the right moves during the off-season. Most people criticized their free agent signings and activity. Any ways circle the wagons, because the Royals are suddenly 3-0 after sweeping the mighty Detroit Tigers. Of course out of this news came a few stories simultaneously expressing their man-love towards the friendly Royals, this little piece from Fox Sports and this nice writeup on Trey Hillman from CNN. The only question I have to ask now is why are we surprised?

Granted the Royals can’t be on a 162 win pace for ever, and they’ll most likely be under .500 at the season’s end. Still they’re definitely fun to watch so far. Some points I want to clarify on based on the above articles:

• During the off-season, almost everyone criticized the Royals for bringing aboard high-priced veterans like Jose Guillen and Ron Mahay. Now it’s nearly a 180 with the team winning. Many people criticized the Guillen signing in particular, especially since he had his name mentioned in the Mitchell Report. I personally loved these moves. The Guillen acquisition was important for many reasons, one it got Alex Gordon that much needed protection.
• Gordon has two homers so far in three games, and it’s interesting to see how quickly he was brought back into the spotlight, with people dropping off the Evan Longoria bandwagon.
• If there’s one thing that we can agree on, it’s that Joakim Soria is one of the best Rule V signings of all time.
• There will be improved power from Mark Teahen this year. He’s off to a great start so far. He’s basically where Jason Kubel of the Twins is today.
• The pitching looks nice so far as well. I expected Zach Grenkie to break out, I didn’t expect Brian Bannister to pitch as nicely as he did this week though.
• The Trey Hillman signing was one of the biggest moves of the offseason so far.

So we’ll see how the Royals do this weekend. If they’re .500 come Sunday night, everyone will most likely stop talking about them. Still it was good to see this spotlight on the team though. The thing to get out about any stories about the Royals is that the team is moving in the right direction (David Glass wants to spend, and Dayton Moore is spending it correctly.) This is even with them signing Brett Tomko over the off-season, and with them actively pursuing Carlos Silva.

A series of long term deals were signed today. Two of the main ones came from Toronto, in Alex Rios (6/65MM) and second baseman Aaron Hill (4/12MM.) In later news, Pittsburgh inked their closer Matt Capps to an extension through 2009. All of these deals contain valuable team-friendly options that can be exercised by the club, in some cases taking out years of free agency.

Everyone says that the Rios signing is a bargain in regards to other outfielder signings like Aaron Rowand and Kosuke Fukodome. The main difference between Rios’ contract and the other players’ contracts is that the years covered in the other players’ deals are free agency years. A good chunk of the years in the Rios, Hill and Capps contracts are arbitration years.

When a young player signs a long term contract early on while he’s under control with the team (until he’s a free agent), this can clearly cut down on his earning potential. Players who go year to year often make out better in the end. However the one benefit that players get who sign early on is the security. If they get hurt, they’re still guaranteed the money. This was probably motivation for other team-friendly extensions for players like Carlos Pena, Troy Tulowitzki, and James Shields. Granted all three of those players have expressed interest in remaining with their current employers, which always helps.

Milwaukee took the same approach with two of their young stars, that is Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Long-term contracts were offered by the clubs. As to whether the players accept, that’s another story. Fielder and Braun both shown that they can produce above-average at the Major League Level, and coupled with the fact that they’re not as often to get injured as other players (e.g. pitchers), they would probably be best going year-to-year with their clubs. In the end however, I still see them signing the deals (worth substantially more), since they’re most likely pleased with the direction that Milwaukee is heading.

Still in the end it all boils down to security. Rios finally broke out last year with 24 homers (he only hit 27 in his career before last season.) Hill had only nine career homers before hitting 17 last year. Capps got most of his saves last year in the second half. Teams are taking definitely chances with these signings, but in the end most of them work out. Still with this news out of the way, it’s good knowing that Tim Lincecum won’t be a Blue Jay anytime soon…

Jonny Cueto finally made his big-league debut this afternoon against the Diamondbacks. He was stellar today, taking a perfect game into the sixth inning only to have it broken up on a Justin Upton home run. That blast didn’t rattle his confidence though, since he quickly retired the next six hitters he faced. On the whole this was his line from this afternoon:

Ten strikeouts in his debut, that’s something Diesuke Matsuzaka did last year against the Royals in his debut, however Cueto allowed only one hit today. On the whole this is something for Reds fans to definitely be happy about. Some people criticized them for trading away Josh Hamilton for Edison Volquez last winter from the Rangers, but as anyone can tell you it never hurts to have too much pitching. Volquez looked sharp this spring, and should be starting for the Reds tomorrow. He and Cueto should be fixtures in their rotation for a few years, as well as that Homer Bailey fellow, as soon as he gets himself in gear in the minors with his control.

The best move the Reds made this offseason was by not trading away their Magnificent Four, that is Bailey, Cueto, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. The first three of those names were rumored to be going to Baltimomre for Erik Bedard, along with third baseman Edwin Encarnacion. After that trade happened, Billy Beane then said that in order for the Reds to have Joe Blanton, they’d have to cough up Cueto. No dice.

On the whole, the Reds have the makings of an impressive rotation on the way, if you’d also include current All-Star Aaron Harrang and Bronson Arroyo, both of whom signed modest extensions a year ago. And the best thing about this is that this dangerous rotation would be in place for many years to come. Now, assuming the Reds aren’t in a playoff push come September, Dusty Baker should do the best thing with Cueto and shut the kid down. To preserve their star in the making, keep him at around 160 innings in 2008.

On a side note, I don’t get the Dan Wheeler extension…

Over the past two years, there have been some great third baseman to come up into the majors. We already saw Alex Gordon last year with the Royals and Ryan Braun with the Brewers. This year we’ll most likely get to see Chase Headley for the Padres (though he’ll most likely be in the outfield baring a Kevin Kouzmanoff trade) and Evan Longoria for the Rays. Braun already got a Rookie of the Year under his belt, and Kouzmanoff and Longoria have incredible potential. For some reason however, people forget Gordon in their discussions.

In looking at the numerous Top 100 prospect lists that I’ve seen, for the most part Longoria (or Reds’ outfielder Jay Bruce) tops the 2008 list, especially Keith Law’s of ESPN in particular. The 2007 Top 100 lists were very similar, which had third baseman Gordon topping most people’s lists (he was #2 on Baseball America’s, though Diesuke Matsuzaka wasn’t exactly considered a “prospect” by most people.)

So now 2008 is here, and everyone has seemed to forgotten about Gordon. The apparent interest now is in Longoria, who most people are labelling as one of the greatest third basemen of all-time. Rob Neyer of ESPN continued their man-love towards Longoria by labeling him #20 on their top 50 players in the next five years. The interesting thing about this statement is that Longoria was the only player on that list who didn’t even step foot in the batter’s box of a Major League game.

So going back to my original question, why are we forgetting about Gordon? Granted when he came up with the Royals in his rookie year, he had very little protection. As a result, he ended up with an average under .200 up until the middle of June. However a hot June in 2007 (.327) pushed his average up. He ultimately finished his rookie year with at .247 clip. A far cry from the Rookie of the Year that everyone has proclaimed, however a good portion of his problems were due to a poor lineup around him. His 15 home runs were low, however he wasn’t far behind the 18 of team leader catcher John Buck.

A good portion of why most people are on the Longoria interest is that when he eventually does make his debut, he’ll be in a no-pressure situation. He’ll be surrounded by hitters like Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton. It’s clearly the same situation which happened to Braun last year, when he was surrounded by hitters like Prince Fielder and Corey Hart. I think Longoria will be fine for the Rays in 2008, and I still believe that he’ll win the Rookie of the Year award. However I think that Gordon will be much better than Longoria in 2008. He could be better beyond that…

The Royals’ front office brought in Jose Guillen to add some protection in the lineup, and he does have a 30 home run bat. They also have a great pure hitter in Billy Butler, and an improving outfielder in Mark Teahen. That should be enough protection for Gordon to thrive. Am I expecting him to have a 30 home run season? Not really, though it’s not out of the question (he hit nine in the second half last season, so the power is definitely there.) He could easily hit 25 this year without a problem. Still in the end, it boils down to intangibles when selecting a third baseman. If I had to choose between Gordon and Longoria, given Gordon’s nice speed versus Longoria’s Robin Ventura-esque defense, I’d still take Gordon in the end. He has the talent to be a star in the league.

Some thoughts to consider from today’s true MLB Opener, that is if we were to pattern them across a whole season:

• Miguel Cabrera would be on a pace to hit 162 homers. So far, definitely worth the Tigers’ 140MM investment.
• Going by how well Johan Santana is man-handling the Marlins, he looks like he’s a lock for another Cy Young trophy. Who else would they give it to, Barry Zito?

• Alex Gordon will definitely be a better third baseman than Evan Longoria will be this season. I’m actually serious here. Most “experts” picked Gordon in 2007 and Longoria in 2008 as the top prospects in all of baseball. So Gordon has a lackluster 2007 and people forget about him?

  

  He launched one today, and is on route to a big year. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
• The Nationals will be the best hitting team in the Majors. Actually they’re pretty exciting, especially that Lastings Mildedge guy. Now if only they could consistently pitch…
• Kosuke Fukodome is the real deal. He had three hits and a walk today against the Brewers, two of those hits going for extra bases, one of them going for yard.

Of course, these are all based off of one game. I saw the box score on the Baltimore/Tampa Bay game today update continuously and wasn’t surprised what I saw in the end. We have two teams here that for the past ten years have been duking it out for avoiding the AL East cellar. Granted the Blue Jays are surely happy of their perennial third place finishes, however that might change this year, in the case of the Rays. In Baltimore and Tampa Bay, we have two teams here in entirely different stages of their rebuilding programs. The odd thing is that both of the two teams tried the same strategy for the first few years and realized that it didn’t work.

Back when they were the Devil Rays, Tampa Bay spent money on very high priced veterans, like Fred McGriff, Greg Vaughn, Vinny Castilla and Jose Canseco, only to see in the end last place finishes. Baltimore did the same thing, as of two years ago, when they spent good money on veterans like Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez. In the end, Baltimore still couldn’t have escaped fourth place.

Now both teams did the full rebuilding phases, that is retain as much youthful talent as possible. We know how stocked Tampa Bay is, and there’s plenty more on the way as well. Baltimore hopes to be where Tampa Bay is now in three years. Still looking at today, we saw two pitchers very similar in James Shields and Jeremy Guthrie pitch. Both of these two had similar seasons last year. Both started out strong (Shields was at one point 6-0, Guthrie an AL ERA leader), then both curtailed in the second half. Both pitchers looked similar today, though Guthrie had a poor defense behind him today. Baltimore’s offense came out strong, but fell asleep after the fifth inning. Still it’s clear that these two teams are a ways apart from each other, that wasn’t the case two years ago. Now will I say that Baseball Prospectus is right and watch the Rays win 89 games, we’ll see. Tomorrow is a whole new day; I’m curious to see what Matt Garza and Daniel Cabrera do.

For the most part, every team has been finalizing their rosters this weekend before tomorrow’s official Opening Day start. Most teams have their lineups and 25-man rosters set now. In looking at the notable moves from this afternoon:

• Los Angeles (NL): The Dodgers (and Joe Torre) finally did the right thing by benching Juan Pierre (who had a poor Spring) in favor of Andre Either. Either makes much more sense than Pierre, who though hit .293 and stole 63 bases in 2007, doesn’t have much else to offer at the plate. The logical step now is to attempt to move Pierre, who though is owed over 36MM the next four years by the Dodgers.

  Yesterday’s starter Esteban Loaiza, though getting shelled by Boston in yesterday’s high-attendance exhibition game, has the fifth starter job for at least a few months. Clayton Kershaw, though dominant in the Spring, will open the season in Double-A. He should be called up and in their rotation by July.

• Baltimore: The Orioles finally released outfielder Jay Gibbons this afternoon, allowing Scott Moore to have a spot on the team as a utility man. The team will eat 11MM of Gibbons’ contract which runs through 2009.

  In other team news, they assigned outfielder Tike Redman to Triple-A Ottawa. He’ll most likely be up as soon as they can, pending on whether the team can move Jay Payton and his 5MM salary for 2008.

  Also in case anyone is interested, Luis Hernandez is their Opening Day shortstop. He made six errors this Spring, however he’s out of options. It’s a shame that Baltimore doesn’t have any better options at this position.

• New York (NL): The Mets named Mike Pelfrey their fifth starter. He beat out Orlando Hernandez for the spot, though Hernandez had more velocity with a changed delivery in his last start. The team could still acquire a starter (like a Claudio Vargas) since many feel that the Mets don’t believe Pelfrey is the best option now. Still, it doesn’t hurt to see him in the rotation.
• Cincinnati: Manager Dusty Baker finally came out and made the statement that Scott Hatteberg will be the team’s first baseman out of camp instead of rookie Joey Votto. This means that their two top challengers for the Rookie of the Year (Votto and outfielder Jay Bruce) will get to see playing time come middle of the season. At least we’ll get to see what Jonny Cueto will do in their rotation.
• Chicago (AL): The White Sox named Alexi Ramirez as their Opening Day center fielder. He had the best bat in Spring Training, and if he hits as well as he did to open the season, the team will need to find a way to keep him in the lineup once Jerry Ownens returns. It’s a shame that the team didn’t take this same approach with the Joe Crede/Josh Fields situation.

I agree 100% with Bobby Valentine when I say that the true Major League Season is just over three days away from now. Regardless, since the National League games haven’t quite started yet, I wanted to run down ten hitters who I feel are ready to step up and have nice seasons. I did this for the American League, but it was a few weeks back. Any ways, even though most everyone has their fantasy lineups set now (I’ve got Luke Scott tucked away on my benches), these hitters should be given some consideration at some point during the 2008 season.

1. Justin Upton, RF — ARI: Everyone knows what his brother B.J. Upton did for the Rays last year, and everyone is now expecting the same thing from his 20-year old sibling. He probably won’t hit super-stardom this season, but he’s a quiet lock for a 20-20 season. If he starts out fast, his numbers could possibly be better. He has the world of talent and is ready to step in for the Diamondbacks.
2. Matt Diaz, LF — ATL: Granted, Diaz is 30 years old. However being surrounded on a team of star hitters (ending in Jones), Diaz was relegated to receiving part-time at bats. He has a great batting eye, and is one of those rare pure .300 hitters (reminding me somewhat of Sean Casey.) Diaz hit .327 in 2006 and .338 in 2007. A heavy sleeper for a .310/20/80 season, especially since he’ll most likely be a regular in the Braves outfield this season.
3. Nate McLouth, CF — PIT: One of the two young McOutfielders that the Pirates are ready to play (the other being the highly-touted prospect Andrew McCutchen), McLouth came on strong in the second half last year, hitting homers at a 35 per season rate. He ended up with 13 in just over 300 at bats, however he also has great speed and stole 22 bases. His Spring was fantastic, and he’s officially the Pirates center fielder. A quiet sleeper for a 20-40 season is McLouth.
4. Pedro Feliz, 3B — PHI: If defense was a factor in most fantasy leagues, Feliz would be one of the first third basemen off the boards. He hit 20 home runs the past for seasons for the Giants, and now came to the East coast for a multi-year deal with the Phillies. His average shouldn’t exceed .270 this season, but he’s free from a bad hitters park, and is now surrounded around a team of sluggers. Feliz is a quiet threat to hit 30 bombs.
5. Jeff Keppinger, SS — CIN: Keppinger came on strong last season and hit .332 with five homers and 32 RBI in short action. He also scored 39 runs. With Alex Gonzalez on the shelf in Cincinnati, Keppinger has the everyday job all to himself. At 27, he’s not as young as some of the younger players around him, but many in Cincinnati are looking at him as the shortstop of the future. Keppinger should keep the job once Gonzalez returns if he hits, even though Dusty Baker has a preference to play veterans. If he’s a regular, he’ll be around .290/10/60 this season.
6. Chase Headley, OF — SD: Unfortunately for many people, Headley was optioned to Triple-A this past week. He could easily have had the job if it was given to him just on his bat, but his glove needs some work. Originally a third base prospect, many people compared him to be the NL’s version of the Rays’ Evan Longoria. Headley, the Padres #1 prospect according to Baseball America, will most likely be up in June to take over an outfield spot, since third is currently occupied by Kevin Kouzmanoff. Once he’s up he should be here to stay.
7. Jeremy Hermida, RF — FLA: If last season wasn’t a breakout season for Hermida, this season definitely had the makings to be, until a minor injury derailed him recently. He hit .296 last season with 18 homers, and finally lived up his top-prospect status he’s had for some time. Luis Gonzalez will keep his seat warm while he recovers.
8. Geovany Soto, C — CHC: It’s rather rare that catchers have breakout seasons, but many are feeling in Chicago that Soto will be a quality backstop for years to come. He’s had a miserable Spring, but his 2007 numbers were outstanding. He’s a quiet threat to hit between 20 and 25 homers, since he has the job all to himself.
9. Chris Duncan, LF — STL: Duncan was on a 35 home run pace last summer, than had a nagging injury for the final two months of the season. He’s a legitimate power threat in the Cardinals’ left-hand heavy outfield. He won’t provide much average, but he could easily hit 30 with great sluggers surrounding him.
10. Corey Hart, RF — MIL: The Brewers’ right fielder had a breakout season last year, hitting 24 homers, batting .295 and swiping 23 bases. The talent is here, and he could easily be a 30-30 player. The same goes with his teammate Rickie Weeks.

Honorable Mentioning: Jorge Cantu, 3B FLA. Weeks, 2B MIL. Bill Hall, 3B MIL. Hunter Pence, OF HOU. James Looney, 1B LAD. Felipe Lopez, IF WAS. Ryan Church, OF NYM. Shane Victorino, OF PHI. Yunel Escobar, IF ATL.

Now that the Opening Series is on the way in Japan as we speak (the games are finished by lunch in the states, series being tied 1-1), I wanted to surmise on some very interesting stories that occurred during this very strange Spring Training. Think of it as an interesting way to prepare for the true start of the season.

More Injuries Than Pre-Season Football

Usually whenever the pre-season games occur in the middle of summer in the NFL, one or two key players seems to go down with a serious injury for the season. I’m not necessarily comparing the two sports, and whether Spring Training baseball games carry as much meaning as NFL pre-season games, but there have been more injuries this year than I can recall in recent Springs.

The major news of the day was with the Angels and them losing Kelvim Escobar for the whole season. Originally he was only expected to be out until May (the same time as his fellow injured colleague John Lackey was), however a revealing of a tear in the shoulder for the most part signaled that his season was going to be over, leaving his career in jeopardy. This story came a day later after we found out that Brewers starter Chris Capuano’s injury was much worse than originally expected. Like Escobar, he will also miss the 2008 season as well.

While those were the major injuries, the rest of the injuries were minor, however still plenty some. Out of the notables, seeing time on the 15 day DL will include Phillies’ closer Brad Lidge, White Sox outfielder Jerry Owens, Astros second base free agent signing Kaz Matsui, and the major’s lone 20 game winner from last season Josh Beckett. Numerous players currently have the flu as well, and could also spend some time on the disabled list (the Twins’ Scott Baker is one such possibility.) Toronto’s ace reliever Casey Janssen is lost for the season as well.

Catch and Release

Out of some players that were signed over the offseason, there were a few of them that were released just recently. Many of them shouldn’t have even been tendered a contract, others shouldn’t have been signed period. The main one that we saw go today was with the Pirates releasing Byung-Hyun Him. Granted they just acquired Tyler Yates from the Braves earlier in the day, but they are essentially paying him a 300K buyout (he would have got 1MM had he made the team.) The other release I didn’t quite get was with the Brewers releasing Claudio Vargas yesterday. The Brewers gave him a 3MM contract over the off-season, and he was pitching very well in the Spring (a 3.60 ERA.) Apparently they thought he could have been traded instead. There are quite a few teams currently interested in Vargas.

Two other players who also had quick releases were the Nationals’ John Patterson and the Blue Jays’ outfielder Reed Johnson. The Jays tendered Johnson a 3.3MM contract surprisingly last Winter, and they now decided to let him go. The Cubs jumped on him immediately, within twenty minutes of him clearing waivers in fact. The same thing goes with the Rangers and Patterson, who was acquired almost instantaneously. These releases have left many scratching their heads.

Some other releases that were minor yet noteworthy include the Dodgers dumping Rudy Seanez, the Mariners dropping Chris Reitsma, the Indians releasing Aaron Fultz, and the Rockies, who just released Marcus Giles earlier this evening.

Deals Galore

While the Brian Roberts trade is essentially dead in the water, and Coco Crisp and Jason Marquis failed to move to other teams, the trades that occurred during the Spring this season were few and sparse. Thankfully we had a few interesting extensions to talk about during this past month. The Pirates inked their young ace Ian Snell to a very modest 3 year deal for about 8MM, and the Cardinals did the same with their ace in Adam Wainwright for a four year deal for 15MM. Of course we also saw big deals being sent out to Miguel Cabrera (7yr/140MM) and Joe Nathan (4yr/47MM.) ESPN is currently reporting that a big deal is also close with the Blue Jays and Alex Rios. This one will be for 65MM over six years once finalized.

Introducing Alexi Ramirez

There have been a few hitting surprises this Spring. Ivan Rodriguez is leading everyone with nine homers, while the Diamondbacks’ catcher Chris Snyder is on a tear. The same thing goes with Josh Hamilton and Jared Weaver. One hitter who’s been surprising this Spring is the White Sox’s Alexi Ramirez.

Ramirez will mostly carry his surge through to the regular season (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu).

Originally brought in as a Cuban second base prospect, the White Sox agreed to terms with him back in December for a very modest four year deal with around 4.75MM. He had the power in Cuba (clubbing 28 homers the year before), and he was originally expected to open in the low minors. A strong spring however (a .355 clip with 17 RBIs in particular) and an injury to Owens has the team ready to have him opening up the season in the outfield. When Owens returns, they’ll most likely need to continue finding playing time for Ramirez, and Juan Uribe might be the likely victim here. Many scouts are comparing Ramirez to Alfonso Soriano. Ramirez definitely has Soriano’s talent, and comes along at a fraction of his salary.

Today is one early Opening Day. Any ways, to follow on with this month’s Power Rankings:

1. Detroit Tigers (Last Month 2): They’re the best team in baseball at the moment, the Miguel Cabrera extension accentuates this point.
2. Boston Red Sox (1): Injuries knocked the Red Sox out of the top spot, now that they have some glaring issues in their rotation. On a side note, they didn’t look overly sharp today’s opener in Japan.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (6): Andre Either spoke out about having to share part-time duties with Juan Pierre, and Pierre did the same about Either. Nonetheless, this is still a solid club and the best team the National League fields today.
4. New York Yankees (5): The pitching might be better than we expect for this club. Joba Chamberlain will be set in the pen indefinitely, while Ian Kennedy looked incredibly polished this Spring.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (4): The Diamondbacks should be the Wild Card team once the season closes for the National League.
6. Cleveland Indians (3): Cliff Lee is the fifth starter, and the rest of the rotation looks solid. Still, they sat idle this off-season while the rest of the league improved itself.
7. Chicago Cubs (8): The Reed Johnson acquisition is an excellent move, since it’s cost-effective and won’t cost them any pitching prospects. Johnson was incredibly solid in 2006, but was plagued by an injury last season. Expect his numbers to rebound nicely in Chicago.
8. New York Mets (7): Johan Santana and John Maine were at times dominant this spring. They could quietly be the best one, two punch in baseball.
9. Seattle Mariners (9): Erik Bedard had a rough spring, but he should be fine come regular season. This is the team to beat in the AL West.
10. Philadelphia Phillies (12): Kris Benson will be pitching for the club in about a month. They fortunately have enough firepower to back any of their starters.
11. Los Angeles Angels (10): They were at once deep in their rotation, that was before John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar went on the shelf. They should return in May though, but the first month could be rough without them.
12. Milwaukee Brewers (11): See what happened above to the Angels. Losing Chris Capuano for the year hurts, and now they just released Claudio Vargas. And to think this team was eight starters deep in February.
13. San Diego Padres (13): Chase Headley is going to be down in the minors to open the season. It wasn’t because of his bat though, he’s to work on his fielding. He’ll be a mainstay in the outfield come June.
14. Toronto Blue Jays (15): Bullpen injuries are taking its toll on the team, however their starters should excel this year, Dustin McGowan included. The Alex Rios extension was a smart move (though it never hurts to offer him straight up for Tim Lincecum.)
15. Colorado Rockies (14): The solid core should be here again, however their pitching corps might have some problems. Franklin Morales’ drop in velocity this spring is disappointing, though he made an improving start this afternoon.
16. Tampa Bay Rays (23): They’re a league best 17-7 right now, and look incredibly strong. Scott Kazmir should be back soon, but don’t pencil this team in yet to win 88 games. They should have kept Evan Longoria on the club, not in the minors.
17. Cincinatti Reds (16): Edison Volquez and Jonny Cueto are apparently penciled into their starting rotation. Jay Bruce is in the minors, Jeff Keppinger is at short, and Homer Bailey and Joey Votto are without major roles. That’s an odd way for Dusty Baker to spread out his young talent.
18. Atlanta Braves (17): Mike Hampton looks very strong, oddly enough, however John Smoltz might be a question mark. And the bullpen is battling some health concerns. Still the biggest story for the team this year though is whether they’ll be able to retain Mark Teixiera come season’s end.
19. Minnesota Twins (21): There will be question marks in the rotation, though Francisco Liriano did look sharp in his last start though, even though he’ll be starting the season in the minors. Out of one story I saw, the Twins might trade Joe Nathan this Summer, since the contract he received is more appealing to teams than what he would receive on the open market.
20. Chicago White Sox (18): After Javier Vasquez and Mark Buerhle, there are question marks a plenty in this rotation. And with Joe Crede starting at third, this team clearly has a few holes to fill. Josh Fields should be in their lineup everyday.
21. St. Louis Cardinals (22): .This team will be strutting out Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer to support the backend of the rotation. Anthony Reyes had a very solid Spring, yet still doesn’t get much consideration. Sadly, the Kyle Lohse acquisition is looking like it’s a good move for the Cardinals.
22. Houston Astros (23): Kaz Matsui’s injury shouldn’t be of concern for the Astros, since I feel that Mark Loretta still has the higher upside. The main good thing that came out of this was that Hunter Pence got pushed up to the top of the order. In other words the Astros will have more quality at bats coming from the top of the lineup.
23. Texas Rangers (25): The pitching still isn’t together, and Jarod Saltalamacchia gets sent to Triple-A (something he more or less skipped) to work on his defense. Still picking up John Patterson was a very quiet, yet intelligent, acquisition.
24. Washington Nationals (24): Shaun Hill is already battling an injury, and yet they release John Patterson. This team is running out of AAAA starters to push out every fifth day.
25. Kansas City Royals (20): The good story from camp was with John Bale, who fought back his way into the majors to win the fourth starter slot. The bad story was that the other options they brought in to fill out the back end of their rotation fizzled.
26. San Francisco Giants (26): Barry Zito at times looked atrocious, and Noah Lowry is on the DL. There will be a fair amount of weight resting on Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum’s shoulders. On a side note, picking up Jose Castillo was a very wise move.
27. Pittsburgh Pirates (27): Locking up players like Freddy Sanchez and Ian Snell this off-season were baby steps in the right direction this team needs to do in order to be competitive.
28. Oakland Athletics (28): The two notable pitchers from today’s game, Joe Blanton and Huston Street, will most likely be gone come the Summer trading deadline.
29. Baltimore Orioles (29): They lost their share of 1-0 games this Spring, yet many pitchers left camp with high ERAs. Granted the bullpen was solid, but this team is still ways away from making headway.
30. Florida Marlins (30): Cameron Maybin and Dallas McPherson get summoned to the minors, while Jorge Cantu wins the third base job. It’ll be that kind of year for the Marlins in 2008.

For the first Monday back from the holiday weekend, there were a few stories today worth discussing. Attacking all three at once, with my standard thoughts on each:

• The top story of the day was with the Joe Nathan extension. The Twins now have him signed through 2011. There were rumors over the weekend about this being close, however the issue about the no-trade clauses were finally hammered out. On whole, Nathan will be making roughly 11.25MM over the course of his extension.

  All winter, we heard from Nathan and his agent about how he was underpaid the first time he extended with the Twins, and how this time around he wasn’t going to accept anything that wasn’t market value. I found it odd that he took this little of money. Francisco Cordero set the bar this winter with his 46MM deal from the Reds, and of course we can’t forget the 45MM that Mariano Rivera got from the Yankees. In all fairness I expected a 4/48MM deal for Nathan.

  Nathan is the best closer in baseball today, period. It’s not Rivera, or Cordero or even Francisco Rodriguez (who should use this contract as a starting point for any extension with the Angels.) Granted if Nathan’s fourth option year was picked up, he’d get 47MM over the course of this deal, but the one good move that the Twins made is that the Twins control the hand here. Still Nathan is much older than his peers (currently 33), so this deal does bring some risk along with it for the Twins. I found it odd that the Twins were able to offer 80MM to Justin Morneau and 24MM to Michael Cuddyer, but were unable to retain Torii Hunter and especially Johan Santana. Hunter was replaced nicely with Demlon Young, but the Twins should have made the Santana extension priority one, even if Carlos Gomez does turn out to have a great season in 2008 with the Twins.

• Evan Longoria was optioned to Triple-A Durham by the Rays today. As many predicted all along, Willy Aybar will be the team’s starter out of the gate in 2008. Longoria had an excellent spring, and this move doesn’t make any sense in that regard. However, when players are receiving 10MM per season in their first year of arbitration (see Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder), it makes sense for the Rays to push back his arbitration eligibility and free agency another whole season.

  The Reds did the same thing earlier with Jay Bruce, optioning him to Triple-A a little while back. Bruce has very little to prove down there as well, and had a nice spring with the bat, though he made some fielding mistakes that warranted the move. Bruce if waiting in the minors for another two months will also have his free agency delayed a season. I know that this tactic is a great move by the clubs, and I’m sure as ever that the players and agents are knowing of this. It’s anyone’s guess if the agent and the player will remember this once long term extension talks arise…

• The Brian Roberts trade to the Cubs is most-likely on hold, at least until after the season starts. Roberts (and Cubs’ second baseman Mark DeRosa) expressed their concerns over the past few weeks about the trade talks. Usually when the player does this, (Orioles’ President) Andy MacPhail plays his hand and accepts the offer. He did this with Erik Bedard and also Miguel Tejada. I honestly was expecting this deal to get done, since the proposed Ronny Cedeno, Sean Gallagher and Donald Veal offer (with also Sean Marshall in the mix) was very solid. MacPhail clearly wanted Felix Pie however.

  The Cubs are currently exploring acquiring Reed Johnson for the outfield and Felipe Lopez from the Nationals for the infield. Johnson I can understand, but I’m not sure how much of an upgrade Lopez will provide. He’s expensive, and is essentially a one-year rental. Roberts would still be the better option if the club was ever to acquire a infielder though.

Over the past few months, there have been stories left and right about how the Tampa Bay Rays will be the most surprising team in baseball in 2008. Granted they have reason to make this claim: they have a powerful young offense, and a young, imposing pitching staff. And the scary thing is that the team will only continue to improve. However in looking at exactly how many wins this team will have in 2008, it’s tough to make an exact projection. First, the Rays play in the AL East, a downright difficult division. Secondly, this team has only won 70 games only one time in their ten-year history, compiling a .398 winning percentage.

I thought I was being generous by predicting that they’d win 74 games as a team in 2008, however I saw a few more projections that opened my eyes. Baseball Prospectus went out on a limb and predicted that the Rays will win 88 games in 2008. That’s a 22 game, or 33% improvement on their 66 loss campaign in 2007. Granted this was made a while back, before the Scott Kazmir injury played a role, however I still wanted to make a case as to why this team will only be the fourth-best team in the AL East.

Everybody Loves Raymond, BP in particular.

The Rays are a good young team, however they have a few areas which definitely need improvement.

Possible Problems in the ‘Pen

The Rays have some great starters, however as to whether the bullpen will be able to protect their leads, that’s another question. Last year’s closer, Al Reyes wasn’t exactly automatic, especially since “The Assassin’s” second half was atrocious. The same thing goes with arms like Gary Glover and Dan Wheeler, who aren’t exactly imposing arms. The front office brought in Troy Pervical for a modest two-year deal, however it’s not guaranteed that he’ll be racking 45 saves a season for the team (he looks awful this spring.) Overall this is an aged bullpen, and the middle to late innings could be shaky for this team, placing more stress on their very young but talented pitching staff.

The Starting Pitching “Fall Off”

Granted the front office assembled a great cache of young pitchers. There’s Scott Kazmir, who should have a reduced work load though in 2008. I’m huge fans of James Shields and Matt Garza, who should have solid seasons. After these arms though, there’s an immediate drop off in talent.

Andy Sonnanstine is a great sleeper, with a nice strike out rate, however he still needs some work. Edwin Jackson clearly isn’t the same top prospect that came up with the Dodgers a while back. The remaining options aren’t overly intriguing, though J.P. Howell is a nice arm (they stole him from the White Sox.) The Rays need more pitching depth to be able to compete with the deep rotations that New York, Boston and even Toronto have. We saw their young talent this spring, that is David Price, Wade Davis and Jake McGee. However they’re still a few years away. For the team to be able to compete “now", case in point is that they need more pitching all around.

Hitting Questions

As of now, the Rays have a scary offense. Carlos Pena is a great bat, and of course there’s Carl Crawford. Dioneer Navaro is an excellent catching option, Jason Bartlett is a defensive upgrade, and the team still has plenty of talent around the horn. If Tampa Bay was to compete “now” versus later, they’d do the following:

• Start Evan Longoria at Third. The idea is that Longoria is going to open the year in the minors, with Willy Aybar (acquired from the Braves for pennies) opening the year at the hot corner. Aybar is a great option, and I can understand why the Rays would do this. Aybar can build up some trade value before Longoria arrives, and the Rays are delaying his service time (kind of what the Reds are doing with Jay Bruce.) Still, if the team wanted to win now, they’d place Longoria at third. He has nothing left to prove down in the minors.
• Acquire another Outfielder. This team is a Kenny Lofton or Coco Crisp away from competing. If they wanted to win now, they’d acquire one or the other more aggressively.
• Acquire Barry Bonds. Granted, “Baroid” has some baggage, but you can’t ignore the fact that he had a 1.025 OPS in 2007. He’ll prosper as the DH in the potent lineup.

If Tampa Bay wanted to win now, they’d acquire more veteran players to surround their young core. However, considering the fact that they have much more talent on the way, there’s really no need to do so (they’ll have the #1 pick again in the Amateur Draft this summer.) 74 wins this season is a very fair estimate I think; it’s an eight-win improvement over 2007. Besides it’ll be the highest win total that the team ever had in their franchise’s history. Will the Rays surprise us and win 89 or so games, highly unlikely. If they do this however, I’ll eat my plate of crow. Still, if there’s one thing that everyone will agree on, it’s the fact that Tampa Bay won’t quite make the playoffs yet this year. They’re a solid team now, but not on the same level with the Yankees and Red Sox. If this was 2011 though, this would be another story.

Usually when the Florida Marlins make a splash and deal a few players, they usually appear to get the upper-hand two or three years afterwards. They plucked the once-untouchable A.J. Burnett from the Mets in their first fire-sale back in 1998, and they did the same with taking Hanley Ramirez from the Red Sox a couple years back. Am I suggesting that the same thing will happen with Detroit and how they dealt the Marlins Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller?

The Tigers made the right moves by extending both players they received in the deal before Opening Day. They got Dontrelle Willis under contract for three more years at a modest 29MM, and just did the same thing this weekend with Miguel Cabrera on his new 153MM contract, which runs through the 2015 season. This deal is a win-win for both parties, however out of most of the reports that I read, they all appear to be saying that this contract hurts the player. To clear a few of these misconceptions once and for all:

Hats off to Miggy, this is a monster deal (AP Photo)

Misconception #1: Cabrera Settled for Far Less than Market Value

Cabrera will receive 153.3MM in guaranteed money over the next eight years from the Tigers. That’s a very nice sum, in fact it’s the fourth largest total compensation package out there (behind Arod, Manny, et al.) Considering the fact that Miguel is going to be playing for a team that will be competitive for some years, this extension was a good move for him. And if the market does grow to the point that 30MM per year players are going to be appearing left and right, the number of years of this contract is small enough so that he can quickly get himself up to the upper-tier status immediately.

Misconception #2: Cabrera isn’t making 20MM per year

At 153MM, by doing the math it’ll appear that on the surface Cabrera is only making 19MM per season. However the fine prints of this contract hide some interesting details. The first point is that this contract covers the 11.3MM one-year 2008 contract that Cabrera signed a few months back. So basically when it all boils down, Cabrera signed a seven year , 142MM extension, which puts him at just over 20MM per season.

The second other point is that this contract only covers six years of Cabrera’s free agency. After Cabrera signed his 11.3MM contract back in December, he still had another year of salary arbitration to work with. So, assuming that Cabrera got a 16MM contract in 2009 (going rate for the final year of arbitration), he’ll have 126MM of the contract going towards his free agency years. That’s 21MM per year, something he would have got if he ever was to hit the open market.

Misconception #3: Cabrera should have signed a 10 year/200MM deal

This point definitely settles my argument on why the player made out well with this deal. On Opening Day of 2008, Cabrera will only be 24 years old. After his contract expires, he’ll be just 32. In other words, he’ll be in the thick of his prime. If his numbers are good now, they’ll be amazing by then. Once 2015 hits, Cabrera will be in line for another monster contract. 2015 is the time when Cabrera should be seeking his ten year extension. If the market inflates at the current rate it’s been doing so, Cabrera should be a 30MM per year player by this point.

A player would want to wait until the near end of his prime to find a team to extend him for a ten year deal, which by at that point his numbers would then start to decline. Alex Rodriguez did the same thing with his contract, and he should be in his 40s after his epic contract expires. The same thing should happen to Cabrera as well. He’ll want to be in his mid-40s after his last major contract expires.

Granted I’ve been glamorizing the player for the past few paragraphs, but am I suggesting that Detroit made a bad move with this deal? Not quite. The Tigers will get Cabrera at his most productive time. And at only eight years, they won’t have to worry about playing a player who’s struggling with injury concerns. There is far less risk involved in signing a hitter to a long term deal than there is with a pitcher; that’s probably why the Tigers only went three years with Willis.

So in the end, this is a great deal for both parties, however it’s even better for Cabrera. He got compensated heavily, and will use this deal as a launch pad for something even bigger come 2015.

Ok it’s finally over. I can’t poke fun at Kyle Lohse anymore; he finally signed today. Lohse got his Major League deal from the St. Louis Cardinals for 4.25MM. It was fun while it lasted though. Even though I criticized Lohse many times during the offseason, I still think this is a great move for the Cardinals. Lohse might not only help soak up innings for an injured Cardinals staff, he occasionally pitches a good game every once in a while.

So the big question everyone is asking is why didn’t Lohse get the money that he originally was seeking? We all remember that right when the playoffs ended, Lohse stated that he wouldn’t settle for anything less than three years and 10MM per season. He shot down (supposed) multi-year offers from the Mets and Phillies too. Did Scott Boras botch things up here? Two reasons why things didn’t play out in his favor in the end:

1. The Arena League. The minute Carlos Silva signed his 48MM deal with the Mariners, Lohse was about as excited as one could get. The Mariners courted Silva like royalty before finalizing the offer. When this was happening, Lohse was envisioning charter jet clauses in his new contract. Teams were already starting to kick the tires on the pitcher, and were preparing him a comparable offer. However the worst thing happened to Lohse, cognitive dissonance set in for the teams. Clubs were figuring that they’d be just as well off by bringing in pitchers on minor league deals then by signing Lohse to a large contract (this is the same problem that plagued Josh Fogg.)

   When Lohse called out the American League (stating it to be similar to an “Arena League"), he then alienated 14 potential employers for him. Which team would want to pay a pitcher who doesn’t want to pitch in their league? In the end, there were only 16 teams bidding for Lohse’s services, unlike the full 30 that Silva had coming after him. That’s part of the reason why Silva got the money he did (the other part of it is because it was the Mariners who foolishly made the deal.)

   

   In the end, these two wouldn’t really be a good fit.

2. Competition. While Lohse was holding out for his best offer, he was watching his potential suitors fill up slots with lesser arms. Baltimore solved its problem by acquiring Steve Trachsel, and the Phillies did the same with Kris Benson. The Mets are deep with Arms, and Lohse simply wasn’t appealing to the White Sox or Astros.

   Today, teams aren’t paying for mediocrity anymore like they used to. Granted there was the Silva signing, but that came from Seattle, a team who offered Jeff Weaver 8MM last season to pitch for them. St. Louis was a perfect fit for Lohse. Their rotation is fighting injuries, and there are currently little options outside of Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper.

If Lohse catches lightning in a bottle, the Cardinals could possibly trade him come midseason, especially with pitchers like Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder and Matt Clement returning. Young Anthony Reyes is also waiting in the wings. So for 4.25MM, it’s a good move by the Cardinals; there’s very little risk with this deal. If Lohse wins 10 games for them, it’ll be a good move by the team. It’ll also be good for Lohse, who can use this opportunity to rebuild his value.

The same thing as before, this time we’re just going over the NL Starters who have the “sleeper” status:

1. Adam Wainwright — STL: Wainwright had a very solid second half last season, and finished with 14 wins and a 3.70 ERA in 200 innings. This is the year that Wainwright wins 17. Other people might rank him a no.2 or no.3, I think of him as a no.1.
2. John Maine — NYM: The Baltimore front office is probably still in disarray after sending him to the Mets for Kris Benson two years ago. Benson is currently with the Phillies, and Maine has 15 wins under his belt from last season with the Mets, plus some playoff experience from the season before. The Australian is clearly the best pitcher on the Mets whose last name is not “Santana.” Maine’d be a no.1 on any other staff, he’s just burried behind the best pitcher in the universe.
3. Rich Hill — CHC: Last year was a solid year for Hill, winning 11 games with an ERA under four. He should win closer to fifteen this year, with a very strong team around him. Hill is just one of the many young pitchers that the Cubs have that are ready to make an impact in the rotation (Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher are both deserving of spots themselves.)
4. Chad Billingsley — LAD: The Dodgers will be glad that they held onto such young talent like Billingsley, Matt Kemp, and Jonathan Broxton. Billingsley has incredible stuff, and won 12 games with a low-three ERA last season, in just under 150 innings pitched. He should be strong enough to pitch the full season, and given the strong team backing him, fifteen wins is not out of the question. Billingsley is just one of the great arms that the Dodgers have ready to go (another one is Clayton Kershaw, whom Joe Torre indicated that he could be starting soon.)
5. Franklin Morales — COL: He’s got incredible stuff, and figures to be pushed into the bullpen at the start of the season. His only other competition includes Josh Towers and Kip Wells, and considering the fact that the only other left handed starter in the rotation is Jeff Francis, Morales should be given every chance to start in 2008.

Honorable Mentioning: Tim Lincecum, SF. Chris Young, SD. Tom Gorzelanny, PIT. Homer Bailey, CIN. Ian Snell, PIT.

Two weeks into Spring Training, and if the season was to start today, there’d be some interesting starters who’d make their rotations as the fifth starters:

• Ryan Dempster appears to have the fifth starter spot all to his own in the Cubs rotation. He’s 2-0 this spring after this afternoon’s win over the Royals.
• Esteban Loaiza threw three shutout innings today over the Red Sox; he’s apparently the Dodgers’ fifth man.
• According to Joe Angel (Orioles’ Radio Network) on today’s broadcast, Hayden Penn has the inside track for the fifth starter role over Garrett Olson and Matt Albers. Penn threw a scoreless eighth in their win today over the Marlins.
• In related team news, the Marlins will most likely make Ricky Nolasco their fifth starter. He was sharp for the first three innings, then unraveled. Nolasco did win 11 games for the Marlins back in 2006, making a tough 35 starts as a rookie.
• Anthony Reyes is the leading candidate to be the fifth starter for the Cardinals, according to RotoWorld.
• If camp broke today, Reds’ super pitching prospect Johnny Cueto would most likely be the team’s fifth starter. Dusty Baker is highly impressed by Cueto, whose yet to make his Major League debut.
• Oakland’s Gio Gonzalez (who came over from the White Sox in the Swisher trade) is a dark-horse to be the team’s fifth starter. He’s looked sharp so far.

I saw the clips yesterday of David Price (first overall pick in the Amateur Draft) throw against the Yankees. For someone who hasn’t faced a hitter since last summer, he looked sharp. He struck out the side, had a fastball just under 100mph, and all other pitches working for him in the process. He apparently looks like he’s worth the signing bonus the Rays paid for him. His manager Joe Madden had the following to say about his performance:

The fastball was jumping late. … These things were down in the zone, around the knees all day long. He broke off a good slider.

Out of the picks from last year’s draft invited to camps, I’ve been impressed with the random blurbs I’ve seen. Baltimore’s young catcher Matt Weiters (drafted from Georgia Tech with a 6MM signing bonus), only hit .111 in his brief time on camp, however he impressed many with his arm behind the plate.

So far, well-worth the “Price” (mlb.com)

There was a rumor floating around this morning of a proposed trade between Boston and Chicago which would have sent Red Sox outfielder Coco Crisp to the Cubs for pitcher Jason Marquis and outfielder Sam Fuld. Apparently it’s not true (supposedly an agreement was met.)

The Cubs are still interested in Crisp however, but Boston is apparently after more than Marquis (the package would start with pitching prospect Sean Gallagher.) Crisp is owed roughly 11MM over the next two years, however that’s small in comparison to the 17MM owed to Marquis. This move didn’t seem to make sense, especially from Boston’s standpoint. Theo Epstein usually avoids pitchers like Marquis, however if the Josh Beckett injury is worse than reported, he’s still worth the interest.

Crisp would be a welcome addition for the Cubs, and his salary isn’t overly obtrusive. He’s unhappy about being relegated to a bench role, especially with Jacoby Ellsbury apparently the incumbent (before yesterday’s three hit game, Ellsbury was 1-16 this spring.) Also in a slump is the Cubs’ young center field prospect Felix Pie, who tailed off after his early two spring homers. Ultimately I do see him going to Baltimore with Gallagher for second baseman Brian Roberts. Not to beat the deadest of horses anymore, Peter Gammons still believes that the trade is on.

Since 2004, Marquis has averaged under 14 wins a season (MLB.com photo)

I did the ten AL hitters that I considered heavy sleepers a little while ago, now I’m going to run through five AL starters who I believe are ready to take the “next step":

1. Justin Verlander — DET: Granted it’s tough to call Verlander a sleeper for 2008. In 2006, he won 17 games. He won 18 last season. While one win might not seem like much of an improvement, Verlander matured heavilly in 2007. His strikeout counts soared, and he also grabbed a no-hitter under his belt. Now with an incredibly powerful team around him, I expect him to win 20 games this year, with 200 strikeouts. The best AL pitcher in 2009 won’t be Erik Bedard, nor will it be C.C. Sabathia or Josh Beckett. It’ll be Justin Verlander.
2. Dustin McGowan — TOR: McGowan won 12 games last season, with an ERA just over four per game. He throws hard, has great stuff, and is ready to bust out in 2008. A fifteen-win season isn’t out of the question for him, and Toronto will need him and Shaun Marcum to breakout, with contract issues looming in the future for Roy Hallady and A.J. Burnett.
3. Felix Hernandez — SEA: Everyone should know what “King Felix” is capable of, especially after seeing him pitch for the first two starts of 2007. An injury derailed him slightly, but he managed to still win 14 games in 2007. He has No.1 stuff, and with Erik Bedard alongside him in 2008, he should break out and win close to seventeen games this season.
4. Jeremy Guthrie — BAL: It’s amazing what Cleveland can’t fit on its 40 man roster sometimes. First they lost Brandon Phillips to the Reds, and now they lost Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie’s emergence in 2007 made the Bedard trade possible. He has above-average velocity and control, and in the end has No.2 starter stuff. He threw a very-respectable 3.70 ERA for the team in 175 innings, and Baltimore rewarded Guthrie with a 780K deal. He only had seven wins last year, and that was a result of poor luck and a bad bullpen. He should very quietly win ten games this year, even with being the team’s top starter right now.
5. Jon Lester — BOS: The Curt Schilling injury moved him up the depth charts to be the team’s #4 starter, however the team countered the injury by bringing in Bartolo Colon. The team is rumored to also be interested in Freddy Garcia. Lester has great stuff for a left-handed pitcher, and looks to be fully-recovered after being diagnosed with cancer. Lester is ready to step in and pitch for a very strong team, and he should be a 12-15 game winner in 2008.

Honorable Mentioning: Brandon Morrow, SEA. Adam Loewen, BAL. Phil Hughes, NYY. Clay Buchholz, BOS. Marcum, TOR. Dontrelle Willis, DET. Zach Grenkie, KC. Matt Garza, TB. Ervin Santana, LAA.

The Rockies just reached a 3yr/17.5MM agreement with outfielder Brad Hawpe. It’s been a very busy off-season for the club, since they’ve already reached long-term agreements with pitcher Aaron Cook, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, closer Manny Corpas and outfielder Matt Holliday. They reached a two year deal with him earlier in the off-season, to purchase out his remaining arbitration years. They’re currently working on something longer.

I love what the team is currently doing, which is giving core players long term contracts. Granted there are security risks in doing this, however the money saved in the long haul will be a better benefit, since going year-to-year with a player can get expensive. When a player has a great year right out of the gate, and the team is still allowed to offer him something at league minimum, that’s when the contract talk should occur. Cole Hamels won 15 games last year, and wasn’t overly happy about his 500K renewal. I mentioned Prince Fielder yesterday, and the ever-vocal Jonathan Papelbon is asking for 900K in his last year before being arbitration-eligible.

Making moves like these is always a good PR aspect for the club. The player won’t have many ill-will going towards free agency as well. Take Ryan Howard, had he been given a long-term contract two years ago, he’d probably be making half of what he is now. He’ll still give the Phillies a chance to sign him when he hits free agency, but there won’t be any “hometown discount".

There have been rumors and speculations all off-season about how Baltimore was planning on bringing back free agent Corey Patterson for another season, even with Adam Jones most likely given control of his position. This isn’t going to be the case however, with Patterson accepting a minor league deal with the Reds this evening. I’m honestly shocked that he couldn’t get better, if not even a major league contract. He should have the position all to himself however, since as many have pointed out the Reds would love to delay Jay Bruce’s debut to push back the hands on his service clock.

With Patterson gone, the only viable center fielder left is Kenny Lofton. The Cubs are supposedly interested in Boston’s Coco Crisp however. With the Brian Roberts trade talk finally starting to heat up again, I’m starting to see that young Felix Pie could be heading to Baltimore. I’ll stand by my prediction from yesterday, that Baltimore acquires Pie, Sean Gallagher, and Eric Patterson (Corey’s brother) for Roberts. I’m also starting to see Jason Marquis being moved for Crisp. I’m not sure as to which will be the precursor for the other, but if Baltimore receives my suggested haul, then Andy MacPhail definitely receives my respect. It would be the most-lopsided trade of the off-season hands down.

Each year, something I enjoy doing is projecting the entire MLB season. I usually try to guess conservatively. This year there aren’t going to be any 100 game winers, nor are there going to be any 100 game losers. I also keep the races loose, and hate guessing which team will go down to the wire (no division is more than two games out of first.) Starting off with the final season standings:

American League

National League

Division Series

• New York over Seattle in 3
• Detroit over Cleveland in 5
• New York over Chicago in 4
• Los Angeles over Arizona in 4

Championship Series

• Detroit over New York in 6
• Los Angeles over New York in 6

World Series

• Los Angeles over Detroit in 5

So I love the Dodgers this year, I think they’re the team to beat. They have a wealth of talent, and I see Andy LaRoche and Clayton Kershaw coming up with huge contributions for the team. I also like the Cubs and Mets as favorites for their division. In the AL, it’s the same suspects, but I do see Seattle slipping into the playoffs. I also see the Yankees advancing to the ALCS for the first time in a while. Moving onto some personal achievements:

Personal Awards

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez. I don’t see why he shouldn’t win this thing again. Honorable Mentionings: David Ortiz, Magglio Ordonez, Grady Siezmore

NL MVP: David Wright. He gets the nod since his team will be playoff bound. Honorable Mentionings: Johan Santana, Matt Holliday, Andruw Jones

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander. He’ll be the top pitcher in the AL come season close. Honorable Mentionings: Erik Bedard, C.C. Sabathia

NL Cy Young: Santana. He’ll have a NL trophy to put up with the other ones he got in the AL. Honorable Mentionings: Chad Billingsley, Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano

AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria. The way he’s playing so far in Spring Training, he’s apparently after this award. Honorable Mentionings: Clay Buchholz

NL Rookie of the Year: Joey Votto. It’s a toss up between him and his teammate Jay Bruce, but I think Votto will make the earlier impact. Honorable Mentionings: Bruce, Colby Rasmus

AL Manager of the Year: Joe Girardi. He advances the dormant Yankees into the ALCS. That gets some recognition. Honorable Mentionings: Jim Leyland

NL Manager of the Year: Lou Pinella. His Cubs look good in 2008. Honorable Mentionings: Joe Torre

Miscallaneous

All-Star Game MVP: Chase Utley. Not sure why I chose this one, but the NL will win it this year.

World Series MVP: Derek Lowe. Just feeling it with this choice.

Bounce Back: Bill Hall. A drop in 20 home runs in 2007… there was an injury in there.

Season Home Run Champs: Ortiz, Howard

Wins Leaders: Verlander, Santana

Surprise Call Up: Clayton Kershaw. Joe Torre loves him, he’ll be what Ryan Braun was to the Brewers in 2007.

It’s amazing the similarities that I’m starting to see develop between Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard. Both players are young, clubbed 50 homers in their second full seasons, and started their contract squabbles the season afterwards. Milwaukee renewed the first baseman’s contract this morning, at roughly 600K. Milwaukee can keep him at the league minimum if they prefer, but doing a move like that would only hurt their chances to extend the young slugger. Prince had the following words to say about this:

I’m not happy about it at all, … The fact that they’ve renewed me two years in a row now. There are a lot of guys with the same amount of time I have who have done a lot less than me and are getting paid a lot more. But my time is going to come and it’s coming quick, too.

I can understand his qualms, especially since the Phillies essentially re-upped Howard last winter for roughly 900K. Fielder’s stats are comparable, at least from his first two seasons in the National League:

His stats are clearly comparable to Howard’s from his first full season. Howard boasted better average and power, but Fielder had reduced strikeout figures. He should easily get 10MM in 2009 if the two parties go to arbitration. Still, back to the original point of this post, it all boils down to Howard’s record hearing from a week ago. Players shouldn’t be complaining about their pay after two years in the league. That’s how the MLBPA is setup.

Baseball is a unionized sport, so Fielder’s salary is indicative of both is performance and his service time. If players like Fielder and Howard wanted the 20MM contracts after one year in the league, there are two possible solutions: disband the players union and make everyone a free agent year after year the minute they break the big leagues. If this was the case, Fielder could easily command mega-bucks, as would Howard, since there’d be many teams competing for their services. However that’s not the case. Teams can hold onto their players for six years until they hit free agency. This notion is in place to keep the leagues competitive.

Regardless Fielder will have to get by on 600K this year. It’ll be tough this year, especially since he’s now living as a vegetarian at his wife’s request. Still it’s good to see that he’s avoiding the path that is father led…

Cecil’s performance enhancing drugs.

I’m not ashamed to admit it, but I’m an Orioles fan. I’ve bled black and gold for years. I remember going down to watch playoff games in Baltimore back in 1996 and 1997, however that was ten years ago. It’s refreshing to see what’s going on now in Baltimore, with an emphasis on acquiring as much young talent as they can. That’s essentially the only way how other teams in the AL East can defeat the Yankees and the Red Sox, teams with seemingly infinite resources. The strategy is working in Tampa Bay, and there’s no question as to why it wouldn’t work with Baltimore.

In all fairness, this has been a busy offseason for the Orioles. A flurry of trades happened in the past few months, and we should be seeing another one shortly with Brian Roberts to the Chicago Cubs. Cubs officials had their scouts watching Roberts the past couple days, and after seeing what he did on the basepaths (especially to Mark Hendrickson), the club’s asking price for him most likely escalated. With both teams desiring to have their players into their camps as quickly as they can, I’m expecting this deal to be imminent. If I was to do a little pre-analysis of the deal:

How Brian Roberts will help the Cubs: Roberts would be a definite upgrade over players such as Mark DeRosa, someone who’s been in and out of the hospital recently. He changes their offense dynamically, and clearly improves them all around. It’s crucial that Chicago jumps out of the gate quickly in 2008, since Milwaukee is much improved as well.

Roberts can transform the Cubs’ style of play immediately. (CNN Photo)

What Baltimore should expect from dealing Roberts: Roberts isn’t entirely Baltimore’s face of its franchise, but he’s a viable trade chip nonetheless. From what reports are saying, the Cubs will throw in infielder Ronny Cedeno, and pitchers Sean Gallagher and Kevin Hart. Judging on Roberts’ performance from last week, Andy MacPhail could make them swap in outfielder Felix Pie and infielder Eric Patterson in place of Hart and Cedeno. Personally I’d do the trade either way, but if MacPhail gets Pie and Gallagher (a 2.75 ERA in the minors as a starter) in this deal, I’d be floored. This haul would easily trump the group that MacPhail got from Seattle for Erik Bedard.

Why is Baltimore still after outfielders? There’s nothing wrong with the team acquiring outfielders. From what I’ve seen, the emphasis of MacPhail’s acquisitions has been outfielders and pitching. Personally, a dream outfield for me would be to see Baltimore showcase Nick Markakis, Pie and Adam Jones from right to left or from left to right. Luke Scott, acquired from the Houston trade, can be a designated hitter (he’s been doing so recently in a few Spring Training games.)

What will Baltimore do about their infield? Obviously, the team has some spare parts that can be moved to a contender in July, players like Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora. The team acquired Scott Moore from the Cubs last year, and he had a double, homer, and four runs knocked in yesterday against the Nationals. If he progresses as he is, the team should really reconsider giving away at bats to Huff and even Kevin Millar. Baltimore also acquired Mike Costanzo, a power corner bat with strikeout potential. Another out-of-options player they’re considering is Andy Marte from the Indians (they made out well by grabbing Jeremy Guthrie from them.)