Late Innings

Ever since Hiroki Kuroda signed with Los Angeles this past weekend, the push for the starting pitching market finally took a step forward. That is teams left out of the signing (e.g. the Royals and Mariners) then officially made offers today for free agent starter Carlos Silva. The Royals have a guaranteed 3yr/30MM offer on the table, while the M’s have a 4yr/44MM one prepared for the right-hander.

The price for starting pitching is clearly high these days, and offers to Silva made it worse. You could either overpay for pitchers who will get you into the sixth-inning consistently (not-very well might I add), or you could trade the farm for a Johan Santana or Erik Bedard. The worst-case scenario happening is that teams get into a bidding war over Silva, and he receives a contract which approaches 13MM to 15MM a year. Yikes.

The career numbers on Silva simply put are not worth the money. Last year’s free agent prize that caught the ire of many people (me included, Gil Meche) received a stunning 5yr/55MM offer. Even though Meche did prove his critics wrong with Kansas City last year, his numbers at the time for the most part paralleled Silva’s, with exception to one key statistic.

Meche will occasionally get the strikeout from time-to-time. He struck out 150 batter the last two seasons. Silva on the other hand is not a strikeout pitcher. Granted he rarely walks hitters though, however most of the time batters are going to put the ball in play against Silva. Teams who do not have solid defenses (e.g. Kansas City) should stay away from this pitcher. The other fault against Silva is that he gives up hits, lots of hits. He gave up 255 hits in his “best” year in 2004. 2006 was an even worse year for him in that the Twins kept pulling him in and out of the rotation.

Meche at least has the talent to be a #1 starter; he’s now the Royal’s first true ace since Kevin Appier (and that was some time ago.) Silva is projected to be a #3 starter at best. Will his numbers improve if he moves to a more spacious ballpark, like Safeco Field? You can’t tell. Granted he was playing in the “Homer Dome” in Minnesota (part of which precipitated to Kyle Lohse’s comments about the AL being an “arena league"), however good pitchers can get by in this ballpark. Just ask Santana, or even Matt Garza and Boof Bonser.

If the Mets get into the thick of the fight for Silva, then his salary will even get more ridiculous. The sad thing is that some team will be foolish enough to pay him his requested 10MM (just ask the Texas Rangers on last year’s Vicente Padilla (re-)signing.) It’s a shame what a losing season in your contract year will get you these days. Buyer beware, I’ll pass.