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A New Year's Resolution

I know it’s been over three months since I’ve written anything of relevance in this blog… but I’m back wishing everyone a Happy New Year. I apologize for the hiatus; life gets in the way.

People have been emailing me for reactions to all the winter moves and trades, particularly the Cliff Lee and Carlos Silva trades in particular. Ha my opinions are along the same lines as the Craig Calcaterras and Dave Camerons of the world… it doesn’t take a degree in nuclear physics to analyze the trades that happen. But if I’ll write in here if something interests me, I promise.

Permalink01/01/10, 08:48:16 pm, by Mike Email , 17 views, MLB Send feedback

Scrap Value

So the Padres extended David Eckstein’s contract through 2010:

The Padres took another step toward the future yesterday by extending the contract of the second-oldest player on their active roster.

David Eckstein will return as the Padres’ second baseman in 2010.

The decision to extend Eckstein, who would have been a free agent at the end of the season, was announced before the Padres lost 7-0 to the St. Louis Cardinals before 38,156 at Petco Park.

He’ll make 1MM in 2010. I’ve made jokes about this before ad nauseum, especially in regards to the mainstream media’s infatuation towards him, but whomever covered the Saturday night shift at Rotoworld summed it up pretty nicely about baseball’s scrapiest player:

Eckstein somehow convinced Padres management that he deserved a raise, despite a lowly .255/.317/.325 batting line, one home run and only 38 RBI in 416 plate appearances. The little man earned just $850,000 in ‘09, but it appears grit and hustle still carry some value in the major leagues.

It’s a shame that we’re going to have to keep talking about Eck for another year, ugh…

Permalink08/23/09, 06:01:32 pm, by Mike Email , 61 views, Padres Send feedback

Taste the Rockies

Over the week, I read a few things about the Rockies as a team not having any real weaknesses… That claim is clearly viable, that is until Aaron Cook went on the DL. And Carlos Gonzalez is out for a week after cutting himself with a steak knife. The team just signed Jason Giambi and Russ Ortiz to add some veteran depth, and even with these moves I still really like this team.

Ubaldo Jimenez manhandled the Giants today. Granted everyone’s been talking about Tim Lincecum and Chris Carpenter for the NL Cy, but some consideration has to definitely be thrown to the Rockies’ ace.

Not to toot my own horn, but I wrote the following about Ubaldo back before the season started, declaring him my sleeper of the year:

I could also see Jimenez’s ERA in the 3.50 ballpark, with a ton of strikeouts.

I compared him to a poor man’s Oliver Perez, who at the time just signed a lucrative three year deal with the Mets. Yes it’s true that Jimenez is pitching very well, it’s a shame that Oliver is not. In case anyone watched the Mets game today, he got destroyed by Phillies hitting.

Permalink08/23/09, 05:50:47 pm, by Mike Email , 65 views, Rockies Send feedback

Negative Value

In case anyone’s interested, Aubrey Huff is currently a -0.4 WAR player. That means he’s costing the Orioles 1.6MM on top of his 8MM salary. With this news we have the following trade:

The Detroit Tigers bolstered their offense for a pennant drive by obtaining first baseman Aubrey Huff from the Baltimore Orioles on Monday for a minor leaguer.

“I’ve been in last place basically my whole career, so this is an exciting time for me,” Huff said. “I’m looking forward to it.”

The Tigers began Monday leading the Chicago White Sox by 2 1/2 games in the AL Central. The last-place Orioles obtained pitcher Brett Jacobson from Detroit and assigned the right-hander to Class A Frederick.

Jacobson is the Tigers’ 10th best prospect, being selected in the fourth round in last year’s draft. RotoWorld projects Jacobson as “an above average middle reliever and possible setup man.” For them to ship off a player with negative value for an intriguing talent, Andy MacPhail is clearly doing more than dumping salary here.

Permalink08/17/09, 04:21:07 pm, by Mike Email , 60 views, Orioles, Tigers Send feedback

The Bryce Harper Sweepstakes

With tonight’s deadline to sign players drafted in the June Amateur Draft approaching, I wanted to bring up the contenders for next year’s #1 Draft Pick in June 2010:

The Race is Getting Tight…
Team W L WPTG GB
Washington 43 75 0.364 –-
Kansas City 46 71 0.393 3.5
Pittsburgh 46 70 0.397 4.0
Baltimore 48 69 0.410 5.5
San Diego 49 70 0.412 6.0

I could have calculated the GB better, and I could also calculate Washington’s “magic number” to clinch this division, but then again it really doesn’t matter. The “Natinals” have been playing better, while Kansas City has been bad in the second half, Baltimore has yet to win a series since the All Star break happened. I’m not suggesting that Baltimore has a good chance at Harper, but if they continue to stink they’ll have this kid come next June.

Then again, as most people know, the key theme to the 2009 draft has been one word: signability. The top three draft picks, Steven Strasburg, Dustin Ackley and Donovan Tate are all represented by … Scott Boras. And that Harper kid is also represented by … (drum roll please) … Boras.

Boras has stated before that he wanted to “revolutionize” how the draft works. In other words he simply wants to have his clients paid more. As most people know, he wants 50MM for Strasburg. Tate’s about to sign for 6MM, but he wants over 10MM for Ackley, a solid outfielder but only projects as a 15/15 hitter. The first two picks would have “record” bonuses, eclipsing whatever was paid to Mark Prior when drafted by the Cubs.

This past draft is also chock full of high school pitchers who want Rick Porcello money, Ackley’s UNC teammate Alex White who wants to be paid like Adam Wainwright (someone should tell him that he needs a 90 MPH fastball before that happens), and Aaron Crow, drafted by the “Natinals” last year but couldn’t agree to terms (I think they offered something like 3.9MM.) Crow pitched a year in the independent leagues, and was redrafted by the Royals who in turn offered him 3MM, which he is scoffing at. If this pitcher has brains and also is as polished as his left-handed counterpart Brian Matusz, he would be in Washington pitching right now. Matusz already has three major league starts under his belt.

I don’t understand why these amateur picks turn down top dollars? Remember Matt Harrington, offered millions of dollars by the Cubs, etc. He’s now changing tires at Wal-Mart for a living. Now I’m not suggesting that Crow or Strasburg will go the way of Harrington, but they are foolish to think that some team is going to sign them for more money the following year, not with (a) the current draft structure and (b) the economy the way it is. Strasburg is clearly the closest thing to the real deal, but if he’s turning down “record” contracts, something’s clearly wrong with the draft.

Permalink08/17/09, 04:14:04 pm, by Mike Email , 85 views, Nationals, Orioles, MLB Send feedback

The Dumbest Fans in Baseball

About a couple weeks ago, I wrote a glowing essay on why Baltimore fans should warm up to Felix Pie, their reserve outfielder who’s struggling in his first season as an Oriole. My argument was simple, look past the stats he put up during April. If you look at Pie from May 1st on to today, he’s a .308/.351/.495 hitter. No wonder he wouldn’t pass through waivers.

Up until last night’s blowout of the Angels, many fans would trash the Dave Trembley whenever Pie received an occasional spot start. Heck some fans were bitching that Andy MacPhail traded away Oscar Salazar instead of him. Sheesh.

I’m starting to see glowing support from many Orioles fans now for Pie, especially with struggles to Melvin Mora and Luke Scott, as well as injury concerns to Nolan Reimold. Hopefully last night’s cycle woke some fans up, Pie is (to paraphrase RotoWorld) “oozes” with talent. This kid should hopefully get more playing time now, and hopefully Baltimore will have their own King Felix soon. In the meantime however, my colleagues (the Orioles fans) aren’t getting any smarter.

Permalink08/15/09, 04:07:26 pm, by Mike Email , 67 views, Orioles Send feedback

Say it Ain't So Joe

I’ll cut right to the chase, I disagree with Joe Posnanski:

7. Alex Rios (Chicago White Sox). I originally had this as the second-worst contract in the game … but that was blowing this out of proportion. Several readers make the strong point that it really is not THAT bad, and I’m probably overreacting to the off-season he’s having now. Either way, this is the third deal where Ricciardi has hit the ejector button in the middle of the contract (B.J. Ryan and Frank Thomas coming first). At least this one, someone else picked up the tab — and yes, Kenny Williams will now be the one judged on how this contract turns out.

He makes a compelling case against J.P. Ricciardi and him doling out bad contracts. I agree wholehardedly with his claim, that is he handed out some bad deals, notably the Vernon Wells albatross of a contract. However Rios? I actually liked this move on behalf of the White Sox.

Rios has come a long way in his career. When he first came up, people thought that he’d never hit for power, based on the 1 HR that he hit in 2004 (over 426 AB!) His power eventually then started to climb, to the point where he hit 24 HR in 2007. His reward for that season, a seven year, 69MM contract extension, buying out the rest of his arbitration years, as well as some free agency years.

Wells is fast, on pace to steal 30 bases for two years in a row. While his defense is regressing, he might enjoy his move to Chicago. For one, he’ll have some protection in the lineup. And secondly, with him manning center all to himself for the next five years, this deal looks good for the White Sox. Erik Manning agrees.

Ken Williams is by far my favorite GM in all of baseball, simply due to the fact that he takes risks. His moves are always head scratchers (e.g. the Javier Vazquez trade, or the Jake Peavy deal), but this Rios deal is grand theft for the Pale Hoes. If Ricciardi made any mistake, it’s that he let Rios go for free. If the Jays wanted to dump salary, he should have sold him Wells instead.

So how about it, the White Sox get a 30-30 man in center for five years. What’s wrong with that? Yes his numbers are down this year, but I expect them to return. If Posnanski wanted to include a bad contract to his list, why didn’t he mention Torii Hunter? Speaking of aging center fielders with little upside, Hunter’s got 60MM coming to him over the next three years from the Angels. Coupled with his new injuries, it’s a shame that Bill Stoneman and company didn’t take out an insurance policy on their center fielder.

Permalink08/12/09, 06:08:48 pm, by Mike Email , 65 views, White Sox, MLB Send feedback

Bargain Huntin'

CNN’s Jon Heyman is at it again:

11. David Eckstein, Padres infielder: A bargain for 850 grand. Worth it for attitude alone.

Pull up the brakes. The great Heyman lists Eckstein as a great bargain who probably wouldn’t slip through waivers. To paraphrase Seth and Amy, really?!?

Using some nifty data from FanGraphs, we can produce the following chart:

eckgraph2
WAR data provided by FanGraphs.com.

Going from the above graph, Eck will hurt you with his glove and with his bat (as evidenced by his .269/.327/.344 line.) However given the fact that he plays shortstop, that keeps his value above water. Eckstein is currently a 1/2 win player, or is worth roughly 2MM this year. If he gets shifted to another position (outside of catcher), his value is shot.

Eckstein is currently making 800K, so as of right now, the Padres have a 1.5MM surplus value in their “scrappy” infielder. Is this solid, maybe? I can think of better bargains out there. How about the recently-traded Cliff Lee? How about Longoria, Lincecum, etc.? I can think of many. They’d sure as hell slip through waivers…

Heyman also speculates in the hit-and-run piece that Alex Rios is over-valued, and as Dave Cameron proves, our fun-loving author is full of shit. Man, what I would give to have Heyman’s job…

Permalink08/03/09, 04:42:34 pm, by Mike Email , 56 views, Padres Send feedback

Always Room for Pie

With the non-waiver trading deadline coming and going, we can now look forward to see what players could potentially be moved (through waivers) in August. Baltimore has a slew of potential players, from Aubrey Huff to Melvin Mora to some of the older bullpen arms. It shouldn’t take much to pull those players from the roster, heck after today’s rant Mora probably punched his ticket out of town. Mora’s defense albeit is solid, but his power evaporated, he is nothing more than a singles-hitter, when that does happen.

With the veterans coming off the roster, this will mean more playing time for their young rising stars. That is the usual suspects that people know: Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones. One player left out of the mix however is reserve outfielder Felix Pie.

fpie
Baltimore fans shouldn’t be too quick to run Pie out of Charm City.

Pie, acquired from the Cubs during the offseason for Garret Olson and a relief pitching prospect, won the starting outfield job after camp broke, however didn’t exactly hit the ground running, batting .157/.246./.216 in April. By that point Reimold took over the full-time job, and Pie was the subject of much scorn from Baltimore fans.

With Pie on the bench however, he was the subject of numerous trade rumors. Pie is out of options, and there’s no way that Andy MacPhail could slip him through waivers unexposed. The team dealt away Oscar Salazar for relief help to keep him on the roster. While many Baltimore fans have been calling for Pie’s head, his performance after his dreadful month of April has been clearly rewarding, as per Pinto, he’s been a very solid .300/.347/.457 since then.

Manager Dave Trembley has been struggling to find him at bats, but he’s been settling in nicely as the team’s #2 hitter, getting on base two more times in today’s slugfest. While people when thinking of young Orioles on the rise tend to forget that Pie is still around, he’s clearly starting to make more noise. He projects as a solid #2 hitter in the future… now the only problem is to figure out how to get enough at bats to him, Jones, Markakis, and Reimold. Also Luke Scott is still in the picture as well. For the Orioles, this problem is a good problem to have.

Permalink08/02/09, 04:43:19 pm, by Mike Email , 61 views, Orioles Send feedback

Grading the Trades

Yesterday at 4PM EST was the MLB non-waiver trading deadline. Big names like Roy Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, and Heath Bell weren’t moved. However plenty of moves were made yesterday and days leading up to the deadline. Here’s my interesting analysis on the moves.

San Diego Padres traded Cla Meredith to Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore Orioles traded 1B Oscar Salazar to San Diego Padres.

This trade has me shaking my heads when it was made. Meredith is effective and induces ground ball outs, perfect for Baltimore. Salazar, while a solid hitter, is out of options. For Andy MacPhail to even be able to acquire something for Salazar, that alone is an accomplishment.

Edge: Baltimore

Indians get Minor leaguers – pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, INF Jason Donald, C Lou Marson. Phillies get SP Cliff Lee and LF Ben Francisco.

This move had me scratching my head as well. Lee is effective, an ace. The haul the Indians for for him is weak. Marson and Donald are going to be servicable, as is Carrasco, and Knapp might be as good as Josh Johnson, someday. However with super-prospect Carlos Santana coming up, Marson won’t have much of a starting role. Lee will rake in Philly, and Francisco is a pretty-good fourth outfielder. Mark Shapiro did not get full value for the ace.

Edge: Philadelphia

clee
Cliff Lee is going to start paying off immediately for the Phillies. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Giants get 2B Freddy Sanchez, 1B Ryan Garko. Pirates get Minor league RHP Tim Alderson. Indians get Minor leaguer LHP Scott Barnes

I lumped these moves together, though they happened on separate days. The Giants surrendered good pitching prospects to redo the right side of their infield, with replacement-value players. The move of Alderson had me scratching my head, and Barnes should excel in Cleveland. Pittsburgh had to move Sanchez, albeit a solid player, but with a 8MM 2010 option that was causing trepidation amongst Pirate front office officials.

Edge: Cleveland and Pittsburgh

Mariners get SS Jack Wilson and RHP Ian Snell. Pirates get C Jeff Clement, SS Ronny Cedeno, and three minor league RHPs Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock.

I’ve always been a big fan of Snell, and him going out to the pitching friendly confines of Safeco is huge. It also helps that he’ll have great defense behind him, with Wilson also being brought on board. Wilson is solid and worth his money, but as many people have pointed out, there are cheaper glove men out there, Adam Everett being one in particular.

The Pirates meanwhile get a nice haul. The arms are power arms. Cedeno is useful, but shouldn’t start. Clement is intriguing. He reminds me of Andy LaRoche, a former top prospect for the Dodgers who didn’t pan out, also acquired last summer by Neil Huntington. I thought this trade over deep and am not sure which side I fall on, I like it for both teams.

Edge: Even

Pirates get RHPs Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and minor league infielder Josh Harrison. Cubs get LHP John Grabow and LHP Tom Gorzelanny.

Huntington was indeed busy, but this haul isn’t as solid as the group of players he got for his double-play tandem. Hart will be useful in their rotation, but I like the players the Cubs got. Garbow will be useful, and I’ve always been a Gorzelanny fan. Like Snell, he was raking at Triple A, and stashed at the back of the Cubs rotation could be good for him. He reminds me of Rich Hill, someone that had good success in 2007 and is trying to get his career back on track with another team.

Edge: Cubs

Rockies get LH/RP Joe Beimel. Nationals get Minor league prospects Ryan Mattheus and Robinson Fabian.

The Rockies upgraded their bullpen over the past few weeks, acquiring Betancourt from the Indians and recalling Chacin from Double A, and now acquiring Biemel from the Nats. However I feel that Mattheus is too big of a price for the solid lefty, due to be a free agent at the end of the year.

Edge: Nationals

Mariners get LHP Jarrod Washburn. Tigers get LHPs Luke French and minor leaguer Mauricio Robles.

This trade has been analyzed ad nauseum by many, and I agree with them entirely. The Tigers made this move out of desperation. Washburn’s ERA was helped out by a solid team defense, and he’s bound to regress in Detroit. I’m not saying he’s a bad pitcher, but he’s not an ace they’re expecting to receive. Six years of team control of French (plus a power arm) is a huge price to pay for the soon to be free agent starter. Good job Wayne Z.

Edge: Mariners

Twins get SS Orlando Cabrera. A’s get Minor league SS Tyler Ladendorf.

The Twins played the waiting game, not giving up Danny Valencia in the process. This move is huge, since the Twins are weak up the middle. I like this trade better than the one the Tigers made, since they gave up a fringe SS prospect. And Cabrera is starting to heat up too… hopefully this move will appease Mauer and Morneau.

Edge: Twins

ocab
The Twins made out well acquiring Cabrera. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Red Sox get C Victor Martinez. Indians get SPs Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price.

Martinez will be useful in Boston. He’ll be very helpful, and will hopefully wake up their dormant offense. He’s also under control and is affordable through 2010. The cost for him? Masterson will be useful in Cleveland, but Hagadone is the key to this trade. He has front line starter potential, and Price isn’t too bad himself. The Red Sox are trading from their surplus though, and Bard, Bowden, Tazawa, Buchholz and Anderson are staying put.

I’m curious to see what the Indians and Mariners rotations will look like come 2010.

Edge: Even

Marlins get 1B Nick Johnson. Nationals get Minor leaguer LH/SP Aaron Thompson.

The Marlins get a great OBP guy, with the Nationals throwing in the remainder of his salary to boot. They had to surrender a top pitching prospect though, but I like this move on both sides.

Edge: Even

Orioles get Minor leaguers 3B Josh Bell and RHP Steven Johnson. Dodgers get LH/RP George Sherrill.

Sherrill’s days of closing appear to be out-numbered, however he’s going back into his role when he was devastating in 2007 for the Mariners, as a specialist. He destroys left handed hitters, and if/when the Dodgers play the Phillies in the playoffs, he’ll be very useful. The cost for him though was a powerful and advanced third base prospect in Bell (especially that ISO above .200.) He could be a 30 HR threat soon. And Johnson isn’t too bad himself, having ties to Oriole broadcaster Dave Johnson.

I like this move for the Orioles, but it’s not as lopsided as many people say it is. If the Dodgers win the whole thing, then it’s worth it for them.

Edge: Baltimore

The Red Sox get Casey Kotchman. The Atlanta Braves get 1B Adam LaRoche.

The Braves have been playing well, and LaRoche’s bat will be useful. Kotchman’s glove is good, and he’s cheaper and under team control as well for some time, which is probably why the Red Sox were interested in him. Don’t expect him to start anytime soon however.

Edge: Even

Reds get 3B Scott Rolen. Blue Jays get 3B Edwin Encarnacion RH/RP Josh Roenicke, and RHP Zach Stewart.

I like this move on behalf of both teams. Rolen’s glove is outstanding, plus the Jays are paying the rest of his salary for the year. They’re on the hook for his 12MM salary next year though, but if he stays healthy he’s worth it. Encarnacion has a great bat, but shouldn’t be fielding the hot corner. He could be like Tony Bautista was for the Jays, a 30 HR threat.

Had the Reds traded Yonder Alonso, as originally was reported by FOX, this move would be grand theft by the Blue Jays.

Edge: Even

Padres get Pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter and Adam Russell. White Sox get SP Jake Peavy.

Honestly, when I first heard this trade announced on ESPN radio, I thought Jayson Stark was joking (especially since those idiots were taking steroids instead of trades, a big reason why I avoid ESPN radio.) Then the rumor came to fruition 30 minutes after the deadline, and Peavy and his agent confirmed the trade, by waiving his no-trade clause.

Peavy and Axelrod were shaking their heads, as was I. The White Sox are paying all of Peavy’s contract over the next three years, and they surrendered four prospects. I was a huge Poreda fan, and Richard should be useful.

The fact which made this trade strange is that Peavy is damaged goods. However when he’s healthy, he’s good. He’s very good. But I’m curious to see how he’ll do outside of Petco, since his home/away splits are different.

The most important part of this deal is that the Padres rid themselves of Peavy’s albatross of a contract, which admittedly looked like a bargain two years ago. The ace should be ready by September, and if the White Sox are still in the hunt, it might pay off for them. Ken Williams made a lot of moves that had me scratching my head, but many of those moves come back to make him look like a genius months later. I like this trade now for the Padres for the above reasons, but let’s see what happens a few months from now…

Edge: Padres

Any ways that’s all of the moves (I think.) Now it’s August, and we’ll hopefully see more trades, though these players will have to slip through waivers first.

Permalink08/01/09, 11:20:00 am, by Mike Email , 73 views, MLB Send feedback

Unrealistic Demands

I’ve been following the Roy Halladay sweepstakes closely. Today, the Blue Jays rejected an offer for their ace by the Phillies. As per MLBTR:

ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting that the Blue Jays have rejected the Phillies latest offer of Carrasco, Donald, J.A. Happ and outfielder Michael Taylor.

The Angels are out of it as well apparently:

(The Angels) were of the mind to remove themselves from the Roy Halladay talks, believing they were never going to come close to the Blue Jays’ asking price of Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood and a prospect such as outfielder Peter Bourjos.

The Blue Jays want both Joba and Phil Hughes in any trade with the Yankkes. And we have yet to see what the Brewers (the “darkhorse") are going to offer. With the non-waiver trading deadline a few days away, the Jays need to bring their demands. Take this offer that the Jays sent to Ruben Amaro Jr. for example: Kyle Drabek, Happ, and Dominic Brown. As BTBS points out, this trade would have gave the Jays a 36MM return on their investment. Yikes.

I know the Phillies want him, and the Jays have no reason to keep him. And I understand that going back to the World Series would be nice for the Phillies. But the Jays need to come down on their demands. Even if it’s ever so slightly.

Permalink07/26/09, 11:46:55 am, by Mike Email , 65 views, Angels, Blue Jays, Phillies Send feedback

Happy Hollidays

In case anyone was living under a rock today, Matt Holliday was traded today, from the A’s to the Cardinals. Billy Beane and Co. receive a plethora of prospects.

holliday
Packing your bags for Big Mac land. (AP Photo)

I thought about this trade deep and hard, like a porn star would. Any ways the following is my (albeit drunken) analysis of this blockbuster… initially off the bat I thought this was a win for the A’s. Heck I thought the Brett Wallace swap for Holliday was a steal for the A’s, but Beane also got two prospects as well, a potential 4th outfielder and a potential 4th starter.

Now Wallace, that had me scratching my head… coming into the season, Sickels gave him an A- rating in his list of top 20 Cardinals prospects. He’s got good talent, but he’s clearly regressed. He might not be fit for long term at third (got Hillary Clinton thighs), and is probably going to be shifted across the diamond. He is major-league ready, but is clearly blocked behind some dude named Albert. He’ll fit in well in Oakland.

If he hits better than another St. Louis prodigy to come to Oakland (e.g. Daric Barton), then this deal is a win for the A’s. Using the Victor Wang chart I’ve alluded to yesterday, Wallace is going to be worth something close to 20MM over the course of his tenure as an A. In other words this is an easy win for Beane. Now if Wallace hits super-stardom, then this is grand theft. For the meantime though, I like this deal for the Cards. He makes Albert and Tony happy, adds some punch to their lineup, and can be used to grab a couple draft picks in next year’s draft (assuming they offer the free agent arbitration and he declines.) In the long term though, I like Oakland… actually this trade is an easy win for the A’s.

Now with the Cardinals upgrading their team, will the Brewers trade for Roy Halladay? Any ways back to drinking…

Permalink07/24/09, 07:15:59 pm, by Mike Email , 58 views, A's, Cardinals Send feedback

Andrew Friedman Clearly Reads FanGraphs

Yesterday a post surfaced by Dave Cameron on FanGraphs.com about an acquisition that Tampa Bay should definitely make:

Thankfully, there’s this guy named Cliff Lee who the Indians would be willing to part with for the right offer. He’s really good, and he’s not just a rental player - he’d help you in 2009 and 2010. You have a remarkably deep farm system, overflowing with talented guys you don’t have room for. You have guys like Reid Brignac, Matt Joyce, Wade Davis, and now Jeremy Hellickson in Triple-A. You have Willy Aybar on the bench. Your outfield is overcrowded, but someone is going to have to go to make room for Desmond Jennings eventually. You have talent to spare.

Now, as of this afternoon from FOX, the Rays and the Indians are definitely trying to make something happen:

The Rays and Indians have discussed a trade that would send Cleveland ace Cliff Lee to Tampa Bay, major league sources said, but the sides didn’t appear close to a deal as of late Wednesday evening. Indians general manager Mark Shapiro is asking for multiple high-end prospects in return for the left-hander. He is believed to prefer right-hander Wade Davis as the primary chip in the deal. So far, the Rays have balked at including him.

Lee is making 6MM this year, and 9MM in his 2010 team option year (it went up 1MM since he won the Cy Young award last year.) He was worth 7.3 WAR last year, or roughly 32MM while making 4MM. A nifty surplus of 28MM for Mark Shapiro and the Indians last year indeed.

Lee is on pace for a 6.5 WAR season, and already at 4.0 WAR, he should be worth roughly 14MM the rest of the way. Assuming he is a 6 WAR player next year, he should be worth roughly 40MM the remainder of his contract. Now if Tampa Bay takes on Lee, would Davis be too much of a cost to pay?

Using the super-cool BTBS Trade Value Calculator and some knowledge about prospects, Davis should only be worth about 15MM, or roughly one third of Lee’s value. Brignac, maybe 7MM. Throw in a couple of B/C level pitching prospects (who don’t have the last name of Hellickson), and we have a very good deal for the Rays. Friedman should definitely pull the trigger…

I can understand why Tampa Bay is hesitant about including Davis, the team’s top pitching prospect currently not in their rotation (e.g. David Price.) He’s obviously gun shy, since Jackson and Hammel are doing very fine jobs having rotation spots elsewhere. The Rays are in the playoff hunt, and Lee is talented, affordable, and could net them two draft picks once he leaves at the end of 2010 as a free agent. As Cameron states, Lee and the Rays would be a perfect fit. Now if they can just roll the dice and let go of some of their (very good) talent to do it.

fangraphs
Do you read FanGraphs?…
Permalink07/23/09, 01:24:20 pm, by Mike Email , 81 views, Indians, Rays Send feedback

Live All Star Game Blog

11:26 PM: Man this was a brisk game. And I’m so glad that Carl Crawford got the MVP award… I think I reverse-engineered their formula for choosing the MVP. Take the two teams in the previous world series, and give it to the best player on the winning league’s team. Seriously, J.D. Drew strangely enough got it last year… any ways I’m going to bed. Good game.

11:15 PM: Mo is on to close this puppy out. Prediction: the MVP goes to either Mo, Papelbon, or Youk. I’ll bet your mom’s virginity on it.

11:13 PM: What a catch by Jayson Werth… wow.

11:08 PM: Wow, Joe Nathan blew the string out good outs (18) by the AL pitching staff. With two on base, let’s see if this game can go into extra innings, just like last year’s marathon.

11:02 PM: My personal fave Adam Jones knocked in the go-ahead run with a sac fly. If the AL wins this, will he be given the game MVP trophy? Granted, keep in mind that he doesn’t play for the Yankees or Red Sox… like with what happened last year with George Sherrill.

Earlier: I was at Texas Roadhouse watching most of this… some thoughts I have. Why weren’t Zack Grienke and Dan Haren the starters? I can understand that it’s being a toss-up between Haren and “the Freak” in the NL, but in the AL Grienke clearly has had more dominant numbers. I guess people don’t want to see Royals and Diamondbacks starters…

…Speaking of Roy Halladay, it was interesting to hear Ken Rostenthal go through some rumors tonight as to where he would land. He’s suggesting that Halladay will be traded, going either to the Phillies or Yankees. I thought the Yankees couldn’t take on more payroll. And I wonder what prospects they’d have to surrender. The Yankees don’t have the pitching prospects that the Jays crave, unless they give up their original “big three", that is Kennedy, Hughes and the six pound, eight ounce baby Joba.

…Not a big fan of the Obama fellow in office now. I hate his policies, but I love the fact that he’s a baseball fan. It was cool to see him in the press box. Joe Buck’s voice makes people commit suicide, but it was still cool seeing this. …Now his first pitch? Not impressed. It had no heat on it. Then again, if it did, he’d tell it to cool down. It’s letting off too many carbon emissions.

Permalink07/14/09, 09:03:53 pm, by Mike Email , 68 views, MLB Send feedback

Tomorrow Live Blog - All Star Game

I’m watching the Home Run Derby and have been so far disappointed. Nelson Cruz and Prince Fielder looked ok, then came Brandon Inge who drew the collar. The AL doesn’t have the best crushers out tonight, and I know many of them turn down the invitation due to superstition and such. However this game benefits charity, and the more home runs that are hit, the more that is donated. I never considered Inge much of a masher. He puts up 20 home run seasons, and I give him credit for doing so at Comerica, but he didn’t look good this evening. On that note, be glad that Ichiro turned down the invitation.

Hey, your’s truly will be live-blogging tomorrow’s All Star Game held in St. Louis. I’ve did this before, and the results were interesting. I got my case of beer ready.

Man, Chris Berman’s voice is annoying as ever tonight.

asg
Watch the 2009 All Star Game Tuesday July 14th at 8PM EST on FOX.
Permalink07/13/09, 07:56:13 pm, by Mike Email , 63 views, Mariners, Tigers, MLB Send feedback

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